The Flowing Oil Chartbook December 14, 2016

The Flowing Oil Chartbook December 14, 2016 RESEARCH ANALYSTS Jan Stuart Edward Westlake Research Analyst Research Analyst 212-325-1013 212-325-6751 jan.stuart@credit-suisse.com edward.westlake@credit-suisse.com Johannes Van Der Tuin Jonathan Aronson Abraham Kahn Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst 212-325-4556 212-325-1014 212-325-3210 johannes.vandertuin@credit-suisse.com jonathan.aronson@credit-suisse.com abraham.kahn@credit-suisse.com DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

Table of Contents The Big Picture The International Scene Oil Macro US Gulf Coast (USGC) Permian Mid Continent West Coast East Coast Technicals NGLs Other Including VMT, Rack Margins, & Fixtures 2

Headlines What s Moving We ll Continue to Chart the Path Happy Holidays, See You in 2017 Oil markets rally on Khalid Al-Falih s Draghi moment Prompt Brent prices closed at $55.72/b yesterday, the high for the year. Among a string of bullish catalysts, one we like especially much came from the Saudi Minister of Energy, Industry, and Mineral Resources who underlined that the kingdom will do whatever it takes, including supply cuts below their committed ceiling, and/or flowing less than 10 Mb/d. He rather overshadowed the otherwise also historic moment of 11 non members formally joining the sovereign intervention. Near term path risk While Opec et al. have agreed to reduce supply effective January 1, the physical market still needs to digest excess crude produced in the run up to negotiations and the Nov 30 agreement, which could mean a wave of US imports. Additionally, we are entering a seasonally weak market for crude, with US refinery maintenance just around the corner, in February and March (p. 12). All of this appears to be priced into the WTI futures curve, which features an odd pattern of twists and turns, contangoed at the front. We suspect that flat price can lurch down near-term on this physical weakness and long spec net length. Managed money net length rockets higher in data through 12/6 Brent MM net length in futures set a new 52 week high as longs entered and shorts fled (p. 5). WTI positioning is near the 52 week high, and more shorts fled than longs entered post the Opec deal (p. 80). The US inventory surplus did fall a little further The DoE reported crude surplus remained flat on a ~2.6 mb draw, while the gasoline surplus was cut to ~10 mbs from ~15 mbs on flat inventories (p. 5). The distillate surplus also fell, by ~2.7 mbs on a slight nominal draw. As we move into 2017, markets, ministers, and others will look to these data for evidence of a tightening s/d. Latest IEA data show third consecutive monthly stock draw Reported OECD commercial inventories drew by ~26 mbs in October, and have shed ~75 mbs since July equal to ~800 kb/d (p. 5). Roughly one third of the ~75 mbs draw involves crude oil. The Agency is also changing its tone, choosing to highlight upward demand revisions and prospects of more big draws in H1-2017. Unveiling our updated global oil balances We incorporate the Opec+ production deal as well as a string of other supply side adjustments (e.g. raising our estimate of Iran s NGLs and condensate output). On the demand side we raise our 2017 growth outlook to 1.4 Mb/d from less than ~0.9 Mb/d, and reveal a new projection for 2018 with more tentatively ~1.2 Mb/d of growth. Among the larger adjustments ranks our raising of 2016 demand in China, which largely involves inflating the adjustment we make to run-rates of independent refiners to ~350 kb/d. For next year we raised US estimates, partly on the back of Trump s policy promises, but more so because of a large increase in projected ethane demand. For full details see pages 37, 38, and 47-49. Our revised monthly global s/d track through 2017 is featured on page 5. Happy Holidays and see you next year! This will be the last Flowing Oil Chartbook of 2016, but we will be back and better than ever on January 4, 2017. It s been a wild year for crude markets; we hope you found the guidance in these pages helpful. 3

Headlines What s Moving Refining Margins & Spreads Focusing in on US dynamics Refining Margins: Weekly average PADD 3 (LLS) margins were higher by.58/bbl last week to $10.92/bbl. Average PADD 5 (ANS) cracks were down by $2.41/bbl to $12.59/bbl. Average PADD 1 (Brent) margins narrowed to $9.54/bbl (down -12.2% or $1.33/bbl) and PADD 2 (WTI) cracks decreased by.48/bbl to $9.43/bbl. PADD 4 (WTI) cracks grew by $4.09/bbl to $15.95/bbl. Mid-Con Crude Spreads: The WTI-LLS widened this past week to -$1.62/bbl. A) Northern Mid-Con Diffs: LLS WCS diffs were up.1/bbl to $17.06/bbl, while Syncrude averaged a discount of $3.71/bbl vs LLS (as compared to a $3.8/bbl discount last week). LLS Bakken differentials narrowed to $3.94/bbl. B) Midland Diffs: The LLS Midland WTI spread averaged.94/bbl (down.18/bbl) while the average LLS-WTS spread narrowed by.40/bbl to $2.35/bbl. Gulf and West Coast Crude Spreads: The weekly Brent LLS widened, averaging.41/bbl. LLS MARS narrowed, averaging $4.23/bbl. The average LLS MAYA spread was around $7.54/bbl. The weekly average ANS KERN spread narrowed by.75/bbl from the previous week to $12.21/bbl. Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, Platts 4

Headlines Key Charts to Watch The week s outstanding new data US inventory surplus to the 2011-2014 average should roll further (Mbs) 250 other reported ex NGLs distillate 200 gasoline crude 150 total reported ex NGLs 100 50 0 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Reported OECD commercial oil inventories are falling (includes ARA; Mbs) 2010-2014 yr range 5 yr average 3,200 2015 2016 3,100 3,000 2,900 2,800 2,700 2,600 2,500 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Our new global supply and demand track through 2017 (3 mma; Mb/d) 100 Demand 99 (3 mma) Supply 98 97 96 95 94 93 92 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 approx impact of Opec deal Brent Managed Money net length soared to 52-week highs this past week 600 Long MM Contracts Shorts 500 400 300 200 100 0 J-13 M-13 S-13 J-14 M-14 S-14 J-15 M-15 S-15 J-16 M-16 S-16 Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, ICE, IEA, EIA, JODI, BP, Petrologistics, Country Data 5

The Big Picture

The Big Picture Brent Structure Brent and WTI flat price with shaded area for Bollinger Bands ($/b) $140 Brent Price Brent 200 mav WTI Price WTI 200 mav $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J-16 Brent futures curves ($/b) $75 $65 $55 $45 $35 $25 12/9/2015 11/8/2016 12/2/2016 12/9/2016 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 Brent structure differentials (1-6) ($/b) $9 2013 2014 2015 2016 Backwardation: Bullish $6 $3 -$3 Brent physical vs. spot futures ($/b) $2 2014 2015 2016 $1 -$1 -$2 -$6 Contango: Bearish J M J S N -$3 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service 7

The Big Picture WTI-Brent & Product Futures Curves WTI Brent futures curves ($/b) 12/9/2015 $- 11/8/2016 12/2/2016 12/9/2016 $(1) $(2) $(3) WTI futures curves ($/b) $75 $65 $55 $45 12/9/2015 11/8/2016 12/2/2016 12/9/2016 $(4) $35 $(5) 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 $25 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 ICE Gasoil futures curves ($/MT) 12/9/2015 11/8/2016 $750 12/2/2016 12/9/2016 $650 $550 $450 $350 RBOB futures curves ($/gal) $2.40 $1.90 $1.40.90 12/9/2015 11/8/2016 12/2/2016 12/9/2016 $250 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35.40 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service 8

2014 2015 2016 201 4 201 5 201 6 201 4 201 5 201 6 The Big Picture Key Crack Spreads from Around the US US Gulf Coast 3-2-1 ($/b) (LLS based) $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 -$5 US Mid-Continent 3-2-1 ($/b) (WTI based) $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 2014 2015 2016 US East Coast 6-3-2-1 ($/b) (Brent based) US West Coast 5-3-1-1 ($/b) (ANS based) $20 $70 $15 $60 $50 $10 $40 $30 $5 $20 $10 Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, Platts 9

The Big Picture Key Crack Spreads vs Forecasts US Gulf Coast 3-2-1 ($/b) (LLS based) 5 yr range 5 yr avg 2015 $30 CS fcst 2016 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 -$5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec US Mid-Continent 3-2-1 ($/b) (WTI based) $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 5 yr range 5 yr avg 2015 CS fcst 2016 US East Coast 6-3-2-1 ($/b) (Brent based) $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 5 yr range 5 yr avg 2015 CS fcst 2016 US West Coast 5-3-1-1 ($/b) (ANS based) 5 yr range 5 yr avg 2015 $60 CS fcst 2016 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, Platts 10

The Big Picture Key Crack Spreads vs Forecasts US Gulf Coast 3-2-1 ($/b) (WTI based) US Rockies 5-3-2 ($/b) (WTI based) $45 5 yr range 5 yr avg 2015 CS fcst 2016 $55 5 yr range 5 yr avg 2015 CS fcst 2016 $35 $45 $25 $35 $25 $15 $15 $5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec $5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec SING 6-2-3-1 ($/b) (Dubai Fateh based) NW Europe 20-6-11-3 ($/b) (Brent based) $20 5 yr range 5 yr avg 2015 CS fcst 2016 $15 5 yr range 5 yr avg 2015 CS fcst 2016 $15 $10 $10 $5 $5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, Platts 11

The Big Picture US Refinery Runs US crude runs (Mb/d) 18 5 year average 2015 2016 17 16 15 14 13 12 US crude inventories (Mbs) 550 5 year average 2015 2016 500 450 400 350 300 250 Total utilization (% of total refinery operable capacity) 100% 5 year average 2015 2016 90% 80% Total US CDU maintenance forecast (kb/d of capacity offline) 2000 5 yr ave 2015 2016 frcst 2016 actuals 1500 1000 500 70% 0 Source: Credit Suisse Research, EIA 12

The Big Picture PADDs I-IV PADD I IV East of Rockies crude runs (Mb/d) 15 5 year average 2015 2016 14 13 12 11 PADD I IV East of Rockies crude inventories (Mbs) 500 5 year average 2015 2016 450 400 350 300 250 10 200 PADDs I IV East of Rockies utilization (% of total refinery operable capacity) 100% 4 year average 2015 2016 95% PADD I IV East of Rockies CDU maintenance frcst (kb/d of capacity offline) 1500 5 yr ave 2015 2016 frcst 2016 actuals 1000 90% 85% 500 80% 0 Source: Credit Suisse Research, EIA 13

The Big Picture US Inventories and Forward Cover US crude inventories (Mbs) 550 5 year average 2015 2016 500 450 400 350 300 250 PADD I IV East of Rockies crude inventories (Mbs) 500 5 year average 2015 2016 450 400 350 300 250 200 US crude days of forward cover 35 5 year average 2015 2016 30 25 20 PADD I IV East of Rockies crude days of forward cover 40 5 year average 2015 2016 35 30 25 20 15 15 Source: Credit Suisse Research, EIA 14

The Big Picture US Inventory Surplus & Product Detail US inventory surplus to the 2011-2014 avg (Mbs) 250 other reported ex NGLs distillate 200 gasoline crude 150 total reported ex NGLs 100 50 0 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 PADD I gasoline inventories (Mbs) 75 5 year average 2015 2016 70 65 60 55 50 45 PADD III gasoline inventories (Mbs) PADD I middle distillate inventories (Mbs) 90 85 5 year average 2015 2016 80 70 5 year average 2015 2016 80 75 70 60 50 40 30 65 20 Source: Credit Suisse Research, EIA 15

The Big Picture US Production and Imports US domestic crude production, weekly data (Mb/d) 10 5 year average 2015 2015 exit rate 2016 PADD I IV East of Rockies domestic crude production, monthly data (Mb/d) 9 5 year average 2015 2015 exit rate 2016 8 7 6 5 4 3 D US crude oil imports (Mb/d) 12 5 year average 2015 2016 11 10 9 8 7 PADD I IV East of Rockies crude oil imports (Mb/d) 10 5 year average 2015 2016 9 8 7 6 5 6 4 Source: Credit Suisse Research, EIA 16

The Big Picture Transport Differentials Map Source: VLO 17

The Big Picture US Storage Capacity Shell crude storage capacity (thousands of barrels) PADDs I II III IV V US Total In Operation Idle In Operation Idle In Operation Idle In Operation Idle In Operation Idle In Operation Idle Refineries 16,853 981 24,677 733 91,650 2,192 4,748 137 40,924 2,201 178,852 6,244 Tank Farms (excluding SPR) 6,686 81 150,637 3,030 260,493 8,745 20,397 134 34,423 1,068 472,636 13,058 Of which at Cushing, OK -- -- 87,685 325 -- -- -- -- -- -- 87685 325 Tankers, Barges and Pipes -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 173333 na SPR (Crude only) - - - - 727,000 - - - - - 727000 0 Total (excluding SPR): 23,539 1,062 175,314 3,763 352,143 10,937 25,145 271 75,347 3,269 824,821 19,302 Working crude storage capacity (thousands of barrels) PADDs I II III IV V US Total Refineries 14,915 20,106 76,215 4,174 36,136 151,546 Of which is likely to be max fill in reality 12,640 18,508 59,573 3,561 30,693 124,974 Tank Farms (excluding SPR) 5,366 123,639 226,038 16,502 28,117 399,662 Of which at Cushing, OK 73,014 73,014 Volumes in transit * 4462 35223 70772 4971 14573 130,000 SPR (Crude only) 727,000 727,000 Total (excluding SPR):** 22,467 177,369 356,382 25,034 73,383 654,636 (*) Note: Volumes estimates based on March 4, 2015 note by EIA (**) Note: Total assumes a level of max fill at refineries below the EIA working capacity number Crude Oil Stocks (thousands of barrels) PADDs 12/9/2016 I II III IV V US Total Standard EIA stock number 13,894 148,298 246,133 24,334 50,534 483,193 Crude storage capacity utilization (thousands of barrels) 12/9/2016 I II PADDs III IV V US Total Standard EIA stock number 62% 84% 69% 97% 69% 74% "Head Room" PADD I - IV East of Rockies 148,594 12/9/2016 Source: Credit Suisse Research, EIA Total shell capacity (incl. idle capacity) Total operable shell capacity Total working capacity * Current inventories "Head Room" till working capacity is full Three week average build # of weeks till full PADD I - IV "East of Rockies" (excluding SPR): 592,174 576,141 581,253 432,659 148,594-1,902 NA (*) Note: has been adjusted to account for oil in transit as well as a level of max fill at refineries below the EIA working capacity number 18

The Big Picture US Product Demand and Inventory US finished gasoline demand (Mb/d) US middle distillate demand (Mb/d) 10 5 year average 2015 2016 5 5 year average 2015 2016 9.5 4.5 9 8.5 8 4 3.5 7.5 3 7 2.5 US gasoline inventories (Mbs) US middle distillate inventories (Mbs) 275 255 5 year average 2015 2016 180 170 160 5 year average 2015 2016 235 215 150 140 130 195 120 110 175 100 Source: Credit Suisse Research, EIA 19

The Big Picture QTD Spreads vs. CS Assumptions - WTI (Cushing) - WTS (Midland) QTD crude differentials are averaging.91/bbl,.62/bbl above Credit Suisse's 4Q16 forecast of.29/bbl - LLS - MAYA (Light - Heavy) QTD crude differentials are averaging $7.60/bbl,.90/bbl below Credit Suisse's 4Q16 forecast of $8.50/bbl - Rockies (WTI based) QTD refining margins are averaging $20.89/bbl, $1.39/bbl above Credit Suisse's 4Q16 forecast of $19.50/bbl - ANS - KERN QTD crude differentials are averaging $10.90/bbl,.22/bbl above Credit Suisse's 4Q16 forecast of $10.68/bbl - LLS - WCS QTD crude differentials are averaging $15.84/bbl,.84/bbl above Credit Suisse's 4Q16 forecast of $15.00/bbl - West Coast (ANS based) QTD refining margins are averaging $17.46/bbl, $1.21/bbl above Credit Suisse's 4Q16 forecast of $16.25/bbl - US Gulf Coast (LLS based) QTD refining margins are averaging $10.65/bbl, $3.15/bbl above Credit Suisse's 4Q16 forecast of $7.50/bbl - Asia (Dubai based) QTD refining margins are averaging $11.03/bbl, $1.73/bbl above Credit Suisse's 4Q16 forecast of $9.30/bbl - Northeast (Brent based) QTD refining margins are averaging $10.83/bbl, $3.83/bbl above Credit Suisse's 4Q16 forecast of $7.00/bbl - Mid - Continent (WTI based) QTD refining margins are averaging $10.43/bbl, $2.57/bbl below Credit Suisse's 4Q16 forecast of $13.00/bbl - LLS - MARS (Medium - Sour) QTD crude differentials are averaging $4.46/bbl,.04/bbl below Credit Suisse's 4Q16 forecast of $4.50/bbl Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, Platts 20

The International Scene

2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 The International Scene Crude Spreads WTI Brent spread ($/b) $5 -$5 -$10 -$15 -$20 Brent Dubai ($/b) $8 $6 $4 $2 -$2 -$4 -$6 Brent Urals ($/b) $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00.50.00 Arab Light MARS ($/b) $60 $5 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 $50 $4 $3 $40 $2 $30 $1 $20 $10 -$1 -$2 Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service 22

201 4 201 5 201 6 201 4 201 5 201 6 2014 2015 2016 The International Scene Cracks (incl. PADD I & III) US East Coast 6-3-2-1 ($/b) (Brent based) $20 $15 $10 $5 NW Europe 20-6-11-3 ($/b) (Brent based) $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 SING 6-2-3-1 ($/b) (Dubai Fateh based) $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 2014 2015 2016 US Gulf Coast 3-2-1 ($/b) (LLS based) $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 -$5 Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service 23

The International Scene CDU Outages Global reported CDU outages (Mb/d) 12 2013 2014 2015 2016 10 8 6 4 World: ex-us, ex-fsu & ex-nwe reported CDU outages (Mb/d) 6 2013 2014 2015 2016 5 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 NWE reported CDU outages (kb/d) 2,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 1,500 1,000 500 FSU reported CDU outages (kb/d) 2,500 2013 2014 2015 2016 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 0 Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service 24

The International Scene Secondary Unit Outages Global reported FCC outages (Mb/d) 2.0 2013 2014 2015 2016 1.5 1.0 0.5 Global reported reformer outages (Mb/d) 1.0 2013 2014 2015 2016 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 Global reported hydrotreating outages (Mb/d) 3.0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Global reported hydrocracking outages (Mb/d) 0.8 2013 2014 2015 2016 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service 25

The International Scene Refinery Runs OECD crude runs according to the IEA (Mb/d) Original EU 16 refinery runs (Mb/d) 40 39 5 yr ave 2015 IEA Forecast 2016 12.0 11.5 5 Yr Average 2015 2016 38 11.0 37 10.5 36 35 34 D 10.0 9.5 9.0 8.5 D Japan crude runs (Mb/d) 4.5 5 yr ave 2015 2016 4.0 3.5 3.0 Global crude runs according to the IEA (Mb/d) 82 5 yr ave 2015 IEA Forecast 2016 80 78 76 74 2.5 D 72 D Source: Credit Suisse Research, Euroil, PAJ, IEA 26

The International Scene Crude & Product Inventories Original EU 16 crude inventories (Mbs) OECD crude inventories (Mbs) 5 Yr Average 2015 2016 1,300 5yr avg 2015 2016 480 1,200 1,100 430 1,000 380 D 900 D OECD gasoline inventories (Mbs) 450 5yr avg 2015 2016 OECD middle distillate inventories (Mbs) 650 600 400 550 350 500 450 5yr avg 2015 2016 300 D 400 D Source: Credit Suisse Research, Euroil, IEA 27

The International Scene European Product Inventories Original EU 16 gasoline inventories (Mbs) Original EU 16 middle distillate inventories (Mbs) 130 125 120 5 Yr Average 2015 2016 480 460 440 420 5 Yr Average 2015 2016 115 400 110 105 100 D 380 360 340 320 D Source: Credit Suisse Research, Euroil 28

The International Scene Chinese Runs & Product Flows China reported CDU outages (kb/d) 1,600 2013 2014 2015 2016 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Chinese refinery crude runs (kb/d) 2013 2014 2015 2016 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 D Chinese diesel net imports(+)/exports( ) (kb/d) 0-50 -100-150 -200-250 -300-350 -400 2013 2014 2015 2016 D Chinese gasoline net imports(+)/exports( ) (kb/d) 2013 2014 2015 2016 0-50 -100-150 -200-250 -300-350 D Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, NBS 29

Oil Macro

Consumer Related Economic Indicators for the US US gasoline share of disposable income (%; monthly through September) US household debt (trillion $; quarterly through 2016 Q2) 4.4% 3.5% 2.6% 1.7% Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 12.0 11.5 11.0 10.5 10.0 9.5 9.0 8.5 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 US personal savings ratio (%; monthly through September) 6.5 6.0 Rising pay rolls in US (thousands of jobs; monthly through October) 600 300 5.5 5.0 4.5 0-300 -600 MoM, thous 12 MAV 196K thru Oct 3 MAV 176K thru Oct 4.0 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16-900 J-08 J-09 J-10 J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J-16 Source: Credit Suisse Research, Federal Reserve, BLS, BEA, Credit Suisse Economics Team 31

Oil Macro Seasonally Adjusted Demand Global oil demand growth (SA, 3mma of monthly data on a LN scale) 11.50 11.45 11.40 11.35 11.30 J-08 J-09 J-10 J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J-16 J-17 Global oil demand data, mom (rhs) and yoy (lhs) 3 mma % change 5% 3 mma mom % change 3 mma yoy % change 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J-16 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% OECD oil demand growth (SA, 3mma of monthly data on a LN scale) 10.90 10.85 10.80 10.75 10.70 10.65 J-08 J-09 J-10 J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J-16 J-17 OECD oil demand data, mom (rhs) and yoy (lhs) 3 mma % change 3% 2% 3 mma mom % change 3 mma yoy % change 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% F-11 F-12 F-13 F-14 F-15 F-16 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% Source: Credit Suisse Research, IEA, EIA, JODI, Country Data 32

Oil Macro Seasonally Adjusted Demand (cont d) Non-OECD oil demand growth (SA, 3mma of monthly data on a LN scale) 10.9 Non-OECD oil demand data, mom (rhs) and yoy (lhs) 3 mma % change 3 mma mom % change 3 mma yoy % change 8% 3.0% 10.8 10.7 10.6 10.5 10.4 J-08 J-09 J-10 J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J-16 J-17 6% 4% 2% 0% J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J-16 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% EM Asia ex-china (SA, 3mma of monthly data on a LN scale) 9.6 EM Asia ex-china oil demand data, mom (rhs) and yoy (lhs) 3 mma % change 8% 3 mma mom % change 3 mma yoy % change 6.0% 9.5 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.1 J-08 J-09 J-10 J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J-16 J-17 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J-16 4.5% 3.0% 1.5% 0.0% -1.5% Source: Credit Suisse Research, IEA, JODI, Country Data 33

Oil Macro Seasonally Adjusted Demand, US US (SA, 3mma of monthly data on a LN scale) 10.0 9.9 9.8 9.7 J-08 J-09 J-10 J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J-16 J-17 J-18 US oil demand data, mom and yoy 3 mma % change 6% 3 mma mom % change 3 mma yoy % change 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% A-11 A-12 A-13 A-14 A-15 A-16 US oil demand growth by product (annual averages in kb/d, yoy) 2012/11 2013/12 2014/13 2015/14 2016E/15 2017E/16E2018E/17E 500 250 0-250 -500 Others*** LPGs** Fuel oil Jet fuel Diesel* Gasoline Source: Credit Suisse Research, IEA, EIA 34

Oil Macro Seasonally Adjusted Demand, Europe & China OECD Europe (SA, 3mma of monthly data on a LN scale) 9.8 9.7 OECD Europe oil demand data, mom and yoy 3 mma % change 6% 3 mma mom % change 3 mma yoy % change 3% 9.6 0% 9.5-3% 9.4 J-08 J-09 J-10 J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J-16 J-17 J-18-6% J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J-16 China demand (3mma kbd) 12,500 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 adjusted demand 9,000 3mth average 8,500 Poly. (3mth average) 8,000 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 China oil demand data, mom and yoy 3 mma % change China's oil product demand adjusted for gasoline and diesel inventory shifts YoY change kb/d 2015 2015 ytd October* 2016 ytd October* October* 2016 ytd Gasoline 2,830 2,808 2,886 3,104 3,059 6.0% 10.5% Kerosene 592 598 586 681 684 16.7% 13.8% Diesel 3,428 3,424 3,611 3,334 3,493-3.3% -2.6% MD 4,020 4,023 4,197 4,015 4,177-0.5% -0.2% Fuel oil 537 551 543 527 494-9.0% -4.4% LPG 1,095 1,071 1,119 1,349 1,379 23.2% 25.9% Naphtha 722 708 671 819 812 21.0% 15.7% "Drive" 6,850 6,831 7,083 7,119 7,236 2.2% 4.2% "Burn" 2,353 2,330 2,332 2,695 2,684 15.1% 15.7% Total 9,203 9,161 9,415 9,814 9,920 5.4% 7.1% * three month rolling average. "Drive" = gasoline + diesel + kerosene Source: Credit Suisse Research, IEA, JODI, NBS 35

Oil Macro Gasoline & Gas Oil Demand Trends Long history of gasoline and gas oil demand (Mb/d) 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 Gasoline 18 Gas Oil 17 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Gasoline demand momentum (levels lhs Mb/d; growth rhs kb/d) 25 YoY growth (rhs) 24 Gasoline 23 22 21 20 19 18 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 2000 1600 1200 800 400 0-400 -800 Gas Oil demand momentum (levels lhs Mb/d; growth rhs kb/d) 25 YoY growth (rhs) 24 Gas Oil 23 22 21 20 19 18 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 2000 1600 1200 800 400 0-400 -800 Data from our reported oil demand by product file cover ~85% of global demand Gas oil includes diesel and heating oil. Source: Credit Suisse Research, IEA, EIA, JODI, BP statistical review, Country Data 36

Oil Macro Global Demand YoY % Change 1,000 b/d Base by quarter (2015-2018) by year (2013-18) "norm" by year in kb/d % 2015 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16E 4Q16E 1Q17E 2Q17E 3Q17E 4Q17E 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2011-15 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E Global 94,840 2.6% 1.6% 2.0% 1.5% 1.2% 1.9% 1.5% 1.3% 1.6% 1.5% 1.6% 0.9% 2.0% 1.7% 1.5% 1.0% 1.4% 1421 867 1891 1569 1413 998 OECD 46,380 1.9% 0.0% 0.2% 0.9% 0.7% 1.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% -0.6% 1.2% 0.9% 0.7% -0.4% -0.3% 253-286 559 404 350-166 Emerging Markets 48,460 3.3% 3.2% 3.9% 2.2% 1.6% 2.1% 2.3% 1.9% 2.4% 2.1% 2.6% 2.5% 2.8% 2.4% 2.1% 2.3% 3.1% 1168 1152 1332 1165 1064 1163 OECD Americas 24,600 2.3% -0.4% 0.2% -0.2% 0.1% 1.9% 1.2% 1.7% 1.7% 1.9% 1.9% 0.2% 1.7% 0.5% 1.6% 0.3% 0.3% 439 45 404 117 407 72 Canada 2,410 0.0% -0.5% -1.8% 1.8% 2.4% -1.8% -0.9% 1.2% 0.7% 0.9% -0.3% -2.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% -7-48 -1 4 11 2 Mexico 2,010 1.8% -0.2% 2.1% -1.5% -6.4% -5.3% 0.6% 4.1% 3.9% 4.5% -1.2% -2.4% -1.6% -2.9% 3.3% 1.3% -0.9% -26-51 -33-58 64 26 USA 19,540 2.7% -0.5% 0.2% -0.3% 0.4% 3.1% 1.6% 1.5% 1.6% 1.9% 2.5% 0.8% 2.3% 0.8% 1.7% 0.2% 0.4% 471 144 430 162 327 41 South America 6,490-3.0% -3.6% -3.4% -2.8% -0.6% -2.7% 1.5% 0.5% -0.4% 1.1% 3.6% 2.2% -1.8% -2.3% 0.7% 1.7% 2.4% 226 141-121 -152 43 109 Brazil 3,050-5.7% -7.1% -5.1% -3.7% 1.0% -3.6% 1.2% 0.9% -1.0% 2.1% 4.8% 4.7% -3.8% -2.8% 0.8% 2.2% 2.8% 138 143-121 -87 23 66 Argentina 690 4.0% 2.0% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.4% 0.2% -0.3% 1.3% 5.0% -1.9% 4.9% 3.0% 0.6% 0.3% 3.2% 32-12 32 21 4 2 Europe 14,610 1.9% 1.6% 1.6% 2.7% 2.0% 1.2% 0.1% -0.5% -0.1% 0.0% -1.9% -0.8% 1.7% 1.9% -0.1% -0.9% -1.3% -278-119 244 273-19 -140 France 1,690 0.4% -2.6% -0.6% -0.7% -1.2% 1.4% 2.3% -1.4% -1.5% -0.7% -1.3% -1.3% 0.0% -0.3% -0.3% -1.2% -1.5% -23-23 -1-5 -6-19 Germany 2,370-0.3% 0.2% 2.3% 3.7% -0.1% -0.6% -2.3% -0.2% 3.1% 1.7% 0.0% -2.5% -0.1% 1.3% 0.6% -0.3% -0.8% 0-61 -1 30 15-7 Italy 1,270 2.0% 0.2% 2.2% 1.3% -1.0% -1.0% -0.3% -0.3% -0.3% -0.3% -6.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.3% -0.3% -1.2% -3.8% -89 7-1 4-3 -15 UK 1,550 2.0% 1.4% 3.2% 5.2% 3.2% 1.8% -0.8% -0.9% -0.9% -0.8% -2.0% -0.5% 1.7% 3.3% -0.8% -1.8% -1.0% -31-7 25 51-13 -28 Oth Europe 7,730 2.9% 3.2% 1.5% 2.9% 3.5% 2.0% 0.6% -0.3% -0.5% -0.2% -1.7% -0.4% 3.0% 2.5% -0.1% -0.9% -1.1% -134-34 222 193-11 -70 FSU 4,320-3.4% -1.9% 3.0% -1.0% -1.0% -1.0% 1.4% 1.9% 0.4% 0.8% -0.5% 1.7% -4.2% -0.1% 1.1% 1.0% 1.5% -24 77-189 -3 47 42 Mideast 9,170 4.1% 4.8% 1.2% -2.9% -2.0% 1.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% -0.9% 3.0% 3.5% 3.2% -0.6% -0.1% 3.7% 3.3% 247 303 286-57 -10 339 Saudi Arabia 3,920 4.0% 7.1% 3.3% -5.6% -4.8% 1.0% -3.3% -1.8% -1.8% -4.0% 0.7% 6.5% 5.2% -1.8% -2.7% 5.0% 4.0% 24 227 193-70 -104 187 Iran 1,950-2.6% -1.6% -0.2% -4.0% -0.9% 3.0% 2.8% 3.3% 4.3% 1.7% 6.9% -1.5% -3.2% -0.5% 3.0% 5.1% 0.9% 132-31 -65-10 58 101 Iraq 619 19.3% 5.4% 2.6% 3.4% -2.7% 2.0% 3.4% 3.1% 2.0% 3.5% 7.2% 2.6% 6.9% 1.1% 3.0% 5.1% 7.1% 40-40 42 7 0 0 Africa 4,060 6.3% 6.7% 5.6% 4.8% 4.2% 3.6% 2.7% 3.5% 4.2% 4.9% 7.4% 2.1% 5.4% 4.6% 3.8% 3.7% 3.0% 260 80 208 185 162 161 Egypt 830 1.9% 9.9% 7.5% 7.2% 5.7% 2.0% -1.1% 4.7% -2.4% 3.7% 1.7% 6.7% 4.7% 5.5% 1.0% 0.4% 1.6% 13 49 37 46 9 3 Asia-Pac 31,600 4.5% 3.4% 4.4% 4.5% 3.0% 3.4% 2.5% 1.9% 3.0% 2.2% 1.9% 1.1% 3.5% 3.8% 2.4% 1.2% 2.7% 552 341 1059 1206 782 414 China 11,230 5.7% 3.1% 6.3% 6.9% 3.4% 5.6% 4.1% 2.4% 4.5% 2.7% 2.4% 2.6% 5.0% 5.5% 3.4% 2.4% 3.8% 249 267 532 621 401 295 India 4,160 10.1% 10.4% 11.9% 8.5% 6.0% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 4.3% 2.8% 0.6% 3.2% 8.0% 7.2% 3.1% 3.0% 4.7% 23 120 308 299 136 138 Indonesia 1,630-1.6% 0.7% 3.9% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.6% 2.3% 2.3% 5.4% 0.6% 2.0% -2.8% 3.7% 2.9% 0.7% 3.2% 9 33-48 61 49 12 Japan 4,120 0.4% -5.8% -5.8% -3.7% -2.7% 2.5% -0.1% -1.5% -2.0% -2.4% 0.7% -5.3% -3.4% -2.5% -1.5% -2.4% -0.9% 33-237 -147-101 -60-96 South Korea 2,410 1.4% 5.5% 5.6% 8.2% 7.3% 2.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.8% 2.5% 5.8% 0.2% -0.9% 1.2% 12 19 59 139 5-22 Australia 1,120 0.2% 0.4% -0.7% 0.8% -1.3% 1.0% 3.4% 2.2% 2.9% 2.4% 1.7% -0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 2.7% 1.9% 1.7% 18-2 5 0 31 22 Thailand 1,340 2.0% 6.8% 7.1% 4.4% 5.8% 2.0% 2.3% 3.6% 3.7% 4.3% 3.5% 0.8% 2.5% 4.8% 3.5% 0.8% 3.7% 44 11 33 65 49 12 Taiwan 1,030 0.8% 2.3% 1.6% -1.1% -1.0% 0.0% 3.9% 1.8% 4.6% 2.9% 2.7% 0.3% 1.5% -0.1% 3.5% 0.8% -0.7% 27 3 15-2 34 12 Source: Credit Suisse Research, IEA, EIA, JODI 37

Oil Macro Global Supply Table Oil Supply in kbd 2014 2015 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16E 4Q16E 2016E 1Q17E 2Q17E 3Q17E 4Q17E 2017E 1Q18E 2Q18E 3Q18E 4Q18E 2018E 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16E 4Q16E 1Q17E 2Q17E 3Q17E 4Q17E 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E Global Total Oil 93,710 96,460 97,040 95,540 96,180 97,700 96,620 95,960 95,600 97,190 98,230 96,750 98,450 98,360 98,650 99,390 98,720 1,430-990 -420 600-1,080 60 1010 530 1,820 2,750 160 130 1,970 Opec 14 all oil 37,770 38,960 38,790 38,650 39,060 39,960 39,990 38,800 38,840 40,130 40,370 40,460 40,860 40,790 40,930 40,850 41,760 1,550 280 640 1,490 10 190 1,070 410-340 1,190 1,030 470 1,300 Non Opec 53,270 54,830 55,600 54,050 54,340 55,070 53,890 54,560 53,980 54,350 55,180 53,600 54,980 54,790 55,010 55,860 54,260-170 -1,350-1,160-910 -1,040-70 10 110 2,160 1,560-940 -290 660 Non Opec EX us 40,420 40,960 41,860 40,420 41,010 41,840 40,410 41,420 40,560 40,590 41,120 40,000 40,910 40,410 40,270 40,600 39,640-200 -1,040-560 -240-440 140-420 -720 400 540-550 -410-360 North America 21,000 21,900 21,950 21,080 21,470 21,270 21,440 21,060 21,200 21,600 21,910 21,450 21,900 22,100 22,510 23,080 22,400 20-510 -570-790 -890 120 130 640 1,960 900-460 10 950 US 12,850 13,870 13,740 13,630 13,330 13,230 13,480 13,140 13,420 13,760 14,060 13,600 14,070 14,380 14,740 15,260 14,620 30-310 -600-670 -600-210 430 830 1,760 1,020-390 120 1,020 Canada 4,280 4,390 4,610 3,860 4,540 4,570 4,390 4,520 4,380 4,440 4,520 4,460 4,590 4,480 4,530 4,610 4,550 50-180 100 70-90 520-100 -50 300 110 0 70 90 Mexico 2,790 2,590 2,530 2,480 2,450 2,400 2,470 2,370 2,330 2,300 2,240 2,310 2,200 2,170 2,140 2,110 2,150-90 -60-140 -180-160 -150-150 -160-90 -200-120 -160-160 South America 8,310 8,470 8,100 8,050 8,090 8,140 8,100 7,920 7,850 7,770 7,770 7,830 7,640 7,630 7,640 7,690 7,650-450 -430-350 -270-180 -200-320 -370 280 160-370 -270-180 Venezuela 2,710 2,650 2,530 2,400 2,330 2,290 2,390 2,240 2,190 2,160 2,140 2,180 2,110 2,100 2,080 2,070 2,090-190 -280-300 -300-290 -210-170 -150 0-60 -260-210 -90 Brazil 2,760 3,010 2,870 2,970 3,170 3,260 3,070 3,140 3,100 3,090 3,140 3,120 3,060 3,090 3,150 3,260 3,140-110 0 110 220 270 130-80 -120 270 250 60 50 20 Argentina 630 630 610 610 610 600 610 600 590 590 580 590 590 590 590 600 590-20 -20-10 -20-10 -20-20 -20-10 0-20 -20 0 Colombia 990 1,010 950 900 840 830 880 820 800 790 780 800 750 710 680 650 700-80 -120-130 -170-130 -100-50 -50-20 20-130 -80-100 Europe 4,240 4,430 4,600 4,450 4,320 4,600 4,490 4,540 4,480 4,310 4,470 4,450 4,480 4,430 4,330 4,440 4,420 220-40 10 70-60 30-10 -130 40 190 60-40 -30 Norw ay 1,870 1,940 2,030 1,940 1,890 2,050 1,980 2,000 1,930 1,870 1,960 1,940 1,900 1,840 1,820 1,880 1,860 90 20-20 60-30 -10-20 -90 50 70 40-40 -80 United Kingdom 840 950 1,060 1,020 950 1,020 1,010 1,070 1,040 960 1,030 1,030 1,100 1,070 1,020 1,070 1,060 150 10 90 20 10 20 10 10-10 110 60 20 30 FSU 14,010 14,180 14,400 14,160 14,070 14,690 14,330 14,750 14,380 14,560 14,870 14,640 14,870 14,760 14,740 14,900 14,820 190-30 30 420 350 220 490 180-20 170 150 310 180 Russia 10,810 10,990 11,180 11,050 11,080 11,440 11,190 11,340 11,080 11,270 11,400 11,270 11,420 11,290 11,310 11,480 11,380 230 60 160 330 160 30 190-40 30 180 200 80 110 Kazakhstan 1,700 1,670 1,690 1,580 1,520 1,780 1,640 1,920 1,810 1,850 2,030 1,900 2,020 2,020 2,020 2,020 2,020-40 -100-90 110 230 230 330 250-20 -30-30 260 120 Azerbaijan 850 840 850 850 820 820 830 810 810 780 780 790 770 770 740 730 750-20 20-10 10-40 -40-40 -40-30 -10-10 -40-40 Middle East 28,960 30,240 31,110 31,420 32,120 32,510 31,790 31,270 31,320 32,550 32,750 31,980 33,080 33,080 33,250 33,240 33,160 1,790 920 1,520 1,960 160-100 430 240 170 1,280 1,550 190 1,180 Saudi Arabia 11,740 12,050 12,170 12,010 12,380 12,400 12,240 11,890 11,880 12,670 12,770 12,310 13,030 13,030 13,030 13,030 13,030 420-290 260 380-280 -130 290 370 80 310 190 70 720 Iran 3,710 3,830 4,280 4,800 4,840 5,010 4,730 4,950 4,990 5,040 5,090 5,020 5,190 5,190 5,190 5,190 5,190 590 870 970 1,170 670 190 200 80 100 120 900 290 170 UAE 3,540 3,690 3,620 3,690 3,770 3,800 3,720 3,720 3,720 3,780 3,790 3,750 3,790 3,790 3,790 3,790 3,790 10 20 50 40 100 30 10-10 10 150 30 30 40 Kuw ait 3,070 3,070 3,160 3,030 3,200 3,150 3,130 2,950 2,950 3,250 3,280 3,110 3,140 3,130 3,310 3,320 3,220 10 30 150 50-210 -80 50 130-100 0 60-20 110 Iraq 3,310 4,050 4,340 4,330 4,390 4,600 4,420 4,410 4,410 4,410 4,410 4,410 4,560 4,560 4,560 4,560 4,560 840 300 50 290 70 80 20-190 160 740 370-10 150 Qatar 2,030 2,010 2,020 2,010 1,980 2,020 2,010 1,990 1,990 2,010 2,010 2,000 1,980 1,980 1,990 1,990 1,990 0 0 0 10-30 -20 30-10 0-20 0-10 -10 Oman 940 980 1,000 1,000 1,010 1,000 1,000 970 970 990 990 980 990 980 970 960 970 30 20 20 10-30 -30-20 -10 0 40 20-20 -10 Africa 8,320 8,250 8,060 7,690 7,570 8,160 7,870 8,130 8,200 8,330 8,460 8,280 8,610 8,560 8,500 8,410 8,520-210 -550-630 -150 70 510 760 300-560 -70-380 410 240 Nigeria 2,290 2,250 2,170 1,880 1,650 1,980 1,920 2,040 2,040 2,140 2,190 2,100 2,160 2,130 2,100 2,070 2,110-90 -330-580 -300-130 160 490 210 40-40 -330 180 10 Algeria 1,560 1,550 1,530 1,580 1,580 1,610 1,580 1,510 1,540 1,540 1,570 1,540 1,490 1,510 1,530 1,520 1,510-50 30 40 60-20 -40-40 -40 0-10 30-40 -30 Libya 480 380 330 310 330 570 390 610 610 610 610 610 910 910 910 910 910-30 -100-40 160 280 300 280 40-540 -100 10 220 300 Angola 1,710 1,830 1,880 1,840 1,840 1,770 1,830 1,740 1,770 1,760 1,770 1,760 1,760 1,740 1,720 1,700 1,720 80 20 10-80 -140-70 -80 0-90 120 0-70 -40 Sudan 270 250 240 180 220 230 220 240 250 250 260 250 260 270 270 270 270-30 -80-30 -10 0 70 30 30 40-20 -30 30 20 Asia 8,880 8,990 8,820 8,690 8,530 8,340 8,590 8,300 8,170 8,070 8,000 8,130 7,880 7,810 7,700 7,620 7,750-120 -350-450 -640-520 -520-460 -340-40 110-400 -460-380 Indonesia 840 830 850 870 880 880 870 900 920 920 930 920 920 900 890 880 900 20 30 60 50 50 50 40 50-20 -10 40 50-20 China 4,220 4,300 4,160 4,040 3,930 3,730 3,960 3,620 3,530 3,490 3,470 3,530 3,330 3,250 3,200 3,150 3,230-90 -300-380 -580-540 -510-440 -260 20 80-340 -430-300 India 880 870 850 850 840 830 840 810 810 810 790 810 780 760 740 730 750-40 -10-30 -30-40 -40-30 -40-10 -10-30 -30-60 Global Crude Oil 76,110 78,220 78,380 76,660 77,430 78,750 77,810 77,130 76,500 77,850 78,520 77,500 78,780 78,530 78,730 79,180 78,810 540-1,550-860 220-1,250-160 420-230 1,260 2,110-410 -310 1,310 Opec 14 crude oil 31,390 32,430 32,930 32,810 33,170 34,030 33,230 32,960 33,020 34,170 34,380 33,640 34,790 34,720 34,840 34,760 34,780 1,210 140 530 1,350 30 210 1,000 350-430 1,040 800 410 1,140 Saudi Arabia 9,900 10,230 10,310 10,160 10,470 10,490 10,360 10,060 10,060 10,730 10,830 10,420 11,050 11,050 11,050 11,050 11,050 320-290 190 290-250 -100 260 340 10 330 130 60 630 Iran 2,880 2,860 3,120 3,640 3,670 3,820 3,560 3,750 3,780 3,820 3,850 3,800 3,890 3,890 3,890 3,890 3,890 310 660 820 1,020 630 140 150 30 100-20 700 240 90 Nigeria 1,770 1,750 1,710 1,410 1,200 1,530 1,460 1,600 1,600 1,700 1,750 1,660 1,730 1,700 1,680 1,650 1,690-60 -310-530 -260-110 190 500 220 20-20 -290 200 30 US 8,760 9,420 9,170 8,850 8,660 8,540 8,800 8,490 8,510 8,660 8,840 8,630 8,820 8,960 9,150 9,590 9,130-320 -620-750 -760-680 -340 0 300 1,290 660-620 -170 500 Source: Credit Suisse Research, IEA, EIA, JODI, Petrologistics 38

Oil Macro Global Supply ex-saudi Arabia Global production ex-saudi Arabia (Mb/d) 85 82 79 Non-OPEC production ex US (rhs) vs. US production (lhs) 8 40 76 US CAGR: 2004-2010 = 1.73% 6 2011 - Jul. '16 = 9.11% 38 73 J-08 J-09 J-10 J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J-16 J-17 4 36 J-04 J-06 J-08 J-10 J-12 J-14 J-16 14 12 10 Non-Opec (ex-us) CAGR: 2004-2010 = 0.61% 2011 - Aug. '16 = 0.12% 46 44 42 US production (crude + NGLs) kb/d (lhs), aggregate rig count (rhs) 15000 Rigs Production 12500 10000 7500 5000 2500 2100 1800 1500 1200 900 600 Europe production (crude + NGLs) kb/d (lhs), aggregate rig count (rhs) 5000 250 Rigs Production 4000 200 3000 150 2000 100 1000 50 0 F-11 F-12 F-13 F-14 F-15 F-16 300 0 F-11 F-12 F-13 F-14 F-15 F-16 0 Source: Credit Suisse Research, IEA, EIA, JODI, Petrologistics, Baker Hughes, Country Data 39

Oil Macro Regional Rig Counts & Production Latin America production (crude + NGLs) kb/d (lhs), aggregate rig count (rhs) 8100 Rigs Production 500 7800 400 Africa production (crude + NGLs) kb/d (lhs), aggregate rig count (rhs) 12000 10000 Rigs Production 8000 300 250 200 7500 300 6000 150 7200 200 4000 2000 100 50 6900 F-11 F-12 F-13 F-14 F-15 F-16 100 0 F-11 F-12 F-13 F-14 F-15 F-16 0 Asia Pacific production (crude + NGLs) kb/d (lhs), aggregate rig count (rhs) 8600 500 Rigs Production 8400 400 8200 300 8000 200 Middle East production (crude + NGLs) kb/d (lhs), aggregate rig count (rhs) 500 32000 Rigs Production 400 30000 300 28000 7800 100 26000 200 7600 F-11 F-12 F-13 F-14 F-15 F-16 0 24000 F-11 F-12 F-13 F-14 F-15 F-16 100 Source: Credit Suisse Research, IEA, EIA, JODI, Petrologistics, Baker Hughes, Country Data 40

Oil Macro Declining Production Tracker OPEC and Non-OPEC trended decline tracker (Mb/d) Non-OPEC trended decline tracker (Mb/d) 48.0 47.5 47.0 46.5 46.0 45.5 45.0 39.0 38.5 38.0 37.5 37.0 OPEC trended decline tracker (Mb/d) 9.0 8.8 8.6 8.4 8.2 Note: Includes Russia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Brazil, Canada, Azerbaijan, Norway, Colombia, Indonesia, US GoM, US conventional, UK, Egypt, Malaysia, Argentina, Thailand, Equitorial Guinea, Australia A look at production in those regions/countries most vulnerable to decline. 8.0 Note: Includes Angola, Nigeria, Algeria, Ecuador, Venezuela Source: Credit Suisse Research, IEA, EIA, Petrologistics, JODI, BP, Country Data 41

Oil Macro Declining Production Tracker (cont d) OPEC and Non-OPEC trended decline tracker (mom rhs, yoy lhs) Non-OPEC trended decline tracker (mom rhs, yoy lhs) 3% 2% 1% 3 mma mom % change 3 mma yoy % change 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 3.0% 2.0% 3 mma mom % change 3 mma yoy % change 1.5% 1.0% 0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% -1% -0.5% 0.0% 0.0% -2% -1.0% -1.0% -0.5% -3% J-10 J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J-16-1.5% -2.0% J-10 J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J-16-1.0% OPEC trended decline tracker (mom rhs, yoy lhs) 4% 3 mma mom % change 3 mma yoy % change 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% J-10 J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J-16 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% -2.0% Note: Includes Russia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Brazil, Canada, Azerbaijan, Norway, Colombia, Indonesia, US GoM, US conventional, UK, Egypt, Malaysia, Argentina, Thailand, Equitorial Guinea, Australia A look at production in those regions/countries most vulnerable to decline. Note: Includes Angola, Nigeria, Algeria, Ecuador, Venezuela Source: Credit Suisse Research, IEA, EIA, Petrologistics, JODI, BP, Country Data 42

Oil Macro Decline Details Brazil production has recovered (3 mma Mb/d; yoy rhs Mb/d) 3.2 3.1 YoY (Mb/d) (rhs) 3.0 Brazil 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0-0.4-0.8 China is in decline (3 mma Mb/d; yoy rhs Mb/d) 4.4 YoY (Mb/d) (rhs) 4.3 China 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0-0.4 2.5 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16-1.2 3.8 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16-0.8 Mexico has hit a 3 year low (3 mma Mb/d; yoy rhs Mb/d) 3.0 2.9 YoY (Mb/d) (rhs) 2.8 Mexico 1.2 0.8 0.4 Opec outside the Middle East is in yoy decline (3mma Mb/d; yoy rhs Mb/d) 11.0 10.5 10.0 YoY (Mb/d) (rhs) Opec ex Middle East 1.0 0.5 0.0 2.7 0.0 9.5-0.5 2.6-0.4 9.0-1.0 2.5-0.8 8.5-1.5 2.4 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16-1.2 8.0 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16-2.0 Source: Credit Suisse Research, NBS, ANP, Pemex, ECB, Petrologistics 43

Saudi Arabia Productivity and Price Tracker Keeping an eye on the rig count and OSPs vs. benchmarks Saudi Arabia rig count (rhs) and total liquids production (kb/d; lhs) Saudi OSP US ASCI ($/b) 13,000 Saudi rigs Production Saudi 2016e 200 4 Saudi OSP US 12,000 150 3 2 11,000 100 1 10,000 9,000 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 50 0 0-1 J-10 J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J-16 J-17 Saudi OSP Asia Oman/Dubai ($/b) 6 Saudi OSP Asia 4 2 0-2 Saudi OSP NWE Weighted Average Brent ($/b) 2 Saudi OSP NWE 0-2 -4-6 -4 J-10 J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J-16 J-17-8 J-08 J-09 J-10 J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J-16 J-17 Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, Baker Hughes, Petrologistics 44

Saudi Arabia Productivity and Price Tracker (cont d) Keeping an eye on the rig count and OSPs vs. benchmarks Saudi Arabia rig count (rhs) and crude production (kb/d; lhs) 11,000 Saudi rigs Production Saudi 2016e 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 8,000 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 200 150 100 50 0 Saudi OSP US ASCI ($/b) 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 - (0.50) (1.00) 2010-2014 range 2010-2014 avg 2015 2016 2017 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Saudi OSP Asia Oman/Dubai ($/b) 5.00 2010-2014 range 2010-2014 avg 2015 2016 4.00 2017 3.00 2.00 1.00 - (1.00) (2.00) (3.00) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Saudi OSP NWE Weighted Average Brent ($/b) 1.00 - (1.00) (2.00) (3.00) (4.00) (5.00) 2010-2014 range 2010-2014 avg 2015 2016 2017 (6.00) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, Baker Hughes, Petrologistics 45

Saudi Arabia and Core GCC Crude Exports Keeping an eye on exports from the Mideast Crude exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Iran (Mb/d) 9 Saudi Trade Flows Iran Trade Flows (rhs) Iraq Trade Flows (rhs) 8 7 6 5 4 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 5 4 3 2 1 0 Aggregate crude exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Iran (Mb/d) 14 13 12 11 10 2015 4wk ma 2016 9 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Crude exports vs tanker flows from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Iran (4 wk avg, Mb/d) 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 Tanker Flows Exports Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, Reuters, JODI, Petrologistics 46

Oil Macro Global Balances (Demand) Demand (Mb/d) 2012 2013 Q1-'14 Q2-'14 Q3-'14 Q4-'14 2014 Q1-'15 Q2-'15 Q3-'15 Q4-'15 2015 Q1-'16 Q2-'16 Q3-'16 Q4-'16 2016 Q1-'17 Q2-'17 Q3-'17 Q4-'17 2017 2018 Global 90.7 92.1 92.1 92.1 93.3 94.2 92.9 93.7 94.1 95.7 95.8 94.8 95.6 95.5 96.9 97.6 96.4 97.1 96.8 98.4 99.0 97.8 98.8 yoy 0.8 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.7 1.1 0.9 1.6 2.0 2.4 1.5 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.1 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.0 yoy (%) 0.9% 1.6% 1.1% 0.7% 0.8% 1.2% 0.9% 1.7% 2.2% 2.6% 1.6% 2.0% 2.0% 1.5% 1.2% 1.9% 1.7% 1.5% 1.3% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.0% OECD 45.9 46.1 45.9 44.9 46.0 46.4 45.8 46.6 45.6 46.9 46.4 46.4 46.7 46.0 47.2 47.2 46.8 47.0 46.3 47.6 47.6 47.1 47.0 yoy (0.7) 0.3 0.1 (0.7) (0.4) (0.1) (0.3) 0.7 0.7 0.9 (0.0) 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 (0.2) yoy (%) -1.4% 0.6% 0.2% -1.6% -0.8% -0.3% -0.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.9% 0.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.9% 0.7% 1.7% 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% -0.4% Americas 23.7 24.2 23.9 23.8 24.4 24.6 24.2 24.5 24.4 25.0 24.5 24.6 24.5 24.4 25.0 25.0 24.7 24.8 24.8 25.4 25.5 25.1 25.2 yoy (0.4) 0.4 0.1 (0.2) 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.6 (0.1) 0.4 0.0 (0.0) 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 yoy (%) -1.6% 1.9% 0.3% -0.7% 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 2.2% 2.7% 2.3% -0.4% 1.7% 0.2% -0.2% 0.1% 1.9% 0.5% 1.2% 1.7% 1.7% 1.9% 1.6% 0.3% Europe 14.1 13.8 13.3 13.7 14.2 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.8 14.4 14.0 14.0 13.9 14.2 14.7 14.1 14.2 13.9 14.1 14.7 14.1 14.2 14.0 yoy (0.4) (0.3) (0.0) (0.4) (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 (0.0) (0.1) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) yoy (%) -2.7% -1.8% -0.3% -2.5% -0.2% -0.2% -0.8% 2.7% 0.8% 1.9% 1.5% 1.7% 1.5% 2.7% 1.8% 1.1% 1.8% -0.1% -0.6% -0.2% -0.1% -0.2% -1.0% Asia Pacific 8.0 8.1 8.6 7.4 7.4 8.1 7.9 8.5 7.4 7.5 8.0 7.8 8.3 7.4 7.5 8.1 7.9 8.3 7.4 7.5 8.1 7.8 7.7 yoy 0.1 0.1 0.1 (0.2) (0.4) (0.3) (0.2) (0.2) (0.1) 0.1 (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) (0.0) (0.1) yoy (%) 1.5% 0.8% 0.7% -3.0% -4.7% -3.9% -2.7% -2.2% -0.9% 0.7% -1.5% -1.0% -1.7% 0.9% 0.8% 2.2% 0.5% 0.4% -0.3% -0.5% -0.8% -0.3% -1.2% Non-OECD 44.8 46.0 46.2 47.2 47.3 47.8 47.1 47.1 48.5 48.8 49.3 48.5 48.9 49.6 49.6 50.4 49.6 50.0 50.5 50.8 51.4 50.7 51.9 yoy 1.5 1.2 0.9 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.2 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.8 1.1 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.2 yoy (%) 3.4% 2.6% 2.1% 3.0% 2.3% 2.6% 2.5% 2.0% 2.8% 3.3% 3.2% 2.8% 3.9% 2.2% 1.6% 2.1% 2.4% 2.3% 1.9% 2.4% 2.1% 2.1% 2.3% China 10.2 10.4 10.3 10.7 10.7 11.2 10.7 10.9 11.3 11.3 11.5 11.2 11.6 12.0 11.6 12.2 11.9 12.0 12.3 12.2 12.5 12.3 12.6 yoy 0.4 0.2 (0.1) 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 yoy (%) 3.9% 2.4% -1.2% 2.8% 3.0% 5.5% 2.6% 5.4% 5.8% 5.7% 3.1% 5.0% 6.3% 6.9% 3.4% 5.6% 5.5% 4.1% 2.4% 4.5% 2.7% 3.4% 2.4% Other emerging Asia 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.2 11.7 11.9 11.9 12.3 12.7 12.4 12.7 12.6 13.2 13.3 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.6 13.7 13.3 13.5 13.5 13.7 yoy 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 yoy (%) 3.5% 2.1% 3.2% 4.4% 2.0% 0.4% 2.5% 2.9% 4.6% 5.8% 7.1% 5.1% 7.0% 4.3% 4.0% 2.1% 4.3% 2.5% 2.6% 3.7% 3.6% 3.1% 1.6% Mideast 8.3 8.6 8.5 9.0 9.2 8.7 8.9 8.6 9.3 9.6 9.1 9.2 8.7 9.0 9.4 9.3 9.1 8.7 9.0 9.4 9.2 9.1 9.4 yoy 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 (0.3) (0.2) 0.1 (0.1) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0.1) (0.0) 0.3 yoy (%) 3.4% 3.0% 3.4% 3.9% 2.0% 5.0% 3.5% 0.4% 3.4% 4.1% 4.8% 3.2% 1.2% -2.9% -2.0% 1.5% -0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% -0.9% -0.1% 3.7% South America 6.2 6.5 6.4 6.6 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.2 6.4 6.5 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.5 yoy 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 (0.0) (0.2) (0.2) (0.1) (0.2) (0.2) (0.0) (0.2) (0.2) 0.1 0.0 (0.0) 0.1 0.0 0.1 yoy (%) 4.2% 3.6% 2.8% 2.2% 2.4% 1.4% 2.2% 0.1% -0.7% -3.0% -3.6% -1.8% -3.4% -2.8% -0.6% -2.7% -2.3% 1.5% 0.5% -0.4% 1.1% 0.7% 1.7% FSU & EM Europe 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.1 4.7 4.7 5.1 5.3 5.0 4.9 4.7 5.1 5.3 5.0 5.0 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.0 5.1 yoy 0.1 (0.0) 0.3 0.0 (0.0) 0.0 0.1 (0.2) (0.3) (0.1) (0.1) (0.2) 0.1 (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 yoy (%) 2.0% -1.0% 5.7% 0.6% -0.7% 0.5% 1.4% -4.9% -5.1% -2.7% -1.4% -3.5% 3.1% -0.3% -0.3% -0.3% 0.5% 1.6% 1.9% 0.5% 0.9% 1.2% 0.9% Africa 3.5 3.8 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.9 3.8 4.2 4.0 3.9 4.2 4.1 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.5 4.4 4.6 yoy 0.1 0.3 (0.0) 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 yoy (%) 2.4% 7.4% -0.9% 2.2% 6.6% 1.1% 2.1% 5.0% 3.5% 6.3% 6.7% 5.4% 5.6% 4.8% 4.2% 3.6% 4.6% 2.7% 3.5% 4.2% 4.9% 3.8% 3.7% Source: Credit Suisse Research, IEA, JODI, EIA, NBP, ANP 47

Oil Macro Global Balances (Supply) Supply (Mb/d) 2012 2013 Q1-'14 Q2-'14 Q3-'14 Q4-'14 2014 Q1-'15 Q2-'15 Q3-'15 Q4-'15 2015 Q1-'16 Q2-'16 Q3-'16 Q4-'16 2016 Q1-'17 Q2-'17 Q3-'17 Q4-'17 2017 2018 Global 91.3 91.9 92.8 93.1 93.7 95.2 93.7 95.6 96.5 96.6 97.1 96.5 97.0 95.5 96.2 97.7 96.6 96.0 95.6 97.2 98.2 96.8 98.7 yoy 2.7 0.6 1.6 1.2 1.6 2.8 1.8 2.8 3.4 2.9 1.9 2.7 1.4 (1.0) (0.4) 0.6 0.2 (1.1) 0.1 1.0 0.5 0.1 2.0 yoy (%) 3% 1% 2% 1% 2% 3% 2% 3% 4% 3% 2% 3% 2% -1% 0% 1% 0% -1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 2% Non-Opec 49.6 51.1 52.5 52.8 53.2 54.6 53.3 54.9 54.6 54.7 55.2 54.8 54.7 53.2 53.5 54.2 53.9 53.7 53.1 53.4 54.2 53.6 54.3 yoy 1.1 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.2 2.5 1.8 1.5 0.5 1.6 (0.2) (1.4) (1.2) (1.0) (0.9) (1.1) (0.1) (0.0) 0.1 (0.3) 0.7 yoy (%) 2% 3% 4% 4% 4% 5% 4% 5% 3% 3% 1% 3% 0% -3% -2% -2% -2% -2% 0% 0% 0% -1% 1% North America 16.5 18.0 19.1 19.7 20.1 20.8 19.9 20.9 20.5 21.0 21.0 20.8 20.9 20.0 20.3 20.2 20.3 20.0 20.1 20.5 20.8 20.4 21.3 yoy 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.8 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.9 (0.0) (0.6) (0.6) (0.8) (0.5) (0.9) 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.9 yoy (%) 8% 9% 10% 13% 10% 11% 11% 10% 4% 4% 1% 5% 0% -3% -3% -4% -2% -4% 1% 1% 3% 0% 5% of which US onshore crude + NGLs 7.6 8.8 9.5 10.2 10.6 11.0 10.3 11.2 11.3 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.0 10.9 10.6 10.5 10.7 10.3 10.5 10.9 11.2 10.8 12.0 yoy 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.9 (0.2) (0.5) (0.6) (0.7) (0.5) (0.6) (0.4) 0.3 0.8 0.0 1.2 yoy (%) 17% 16% 16% 19% 18% 19% 18% 17% 11% 6% 1% 9% -2% -4% -5% -6% -4% -6% -3% 3% 7% 0% 11% FSU 13.6 13.8 13.9 13.7 13.7 13.9 13.8 14.0 14.0 13.8 14.1 14.0 14.2 13.9 13.9 14.5 14.1 14.5 14.1 14.3 14.6 14.4 14.6 yoy 0.1 0.2 0.1 (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) (0.0) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 (0.0) 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.2 yoy (%) 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% -1% 0% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 3% 1% 2% 1% 3% 1% 2% 1% of which Russia 10.6 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.7 10.9 10.8 10.9 11.0 10.9 11.1 11.0 11.2 11.0 11.1 11.4 11.2 11.3 11.1 11.3 11.4 11.3 11.4 yoy 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 (0.0) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 (0.0) 0.1 0.1 yoy (%) 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 3% 2% 1% 0% 2% 0% 1% 1% Asia 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.4 7.7 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.5 7.3 7.2 7.0 7.2 6.9 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.4 yoy 0.2 (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) (0.0) 0.1 (0.0) 0.1 0.1 0.2 (0.0) 0.1 (0.1) (0.4) (0.5) (0.7) (0.4) (0.6) (0.6) (0.5) (0.4) (0.5) (0.4) yoy (%) 2% 0% -1% -1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 0% 1% -2% -5% -7% -9% -6% -8% -8% -7% -5% -7% -5% South America 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.9 5.1 4.8 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.1 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.8 yoy (0.0) 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 (0.3) (0.2) (0.1) 0.0 (0.1) 0.1 0.0 (0.2) (0.2) (0.1) (0.1) yoy (%) 0% 0% 4% 4% 6% 8% 5% 9% 7% 4% 0% 5% -5% -3% -1% 0% -2% 2% 0% -3% -4% -1% -1% Europe 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.9 3.8 4.0 4.0 3.9 4.1 4.0 4.2 4.0 3.9 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 4.1 4.0 4.0 yoy (0.3) (0.2) 0.1 (0.1) (0.0) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 (0.0) 0.0 0.1 0.1 (0.0) 0.1 0.0 (0.1) (0.0) (0.0) yoy (%) -6% -4% 2% -1% 0% 3% 1% 1% 8% 6% 4% 5% 5% -1% 0% 2% 1% -1% 1% 0% -3% 0% -1% Africa 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 yoy 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 (0.1) 0.0 0.0 (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) (0.0) (0.1) (0.2) (0.1) 0.0 (0.1) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 yoy (%) 2% 4% 4% 3% 2% -3% 2% 0% -1% -1% -3% -1% -5% -9% -3% 1% -4% 5% 10% 6% 6% 7% 0% Mideast 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 yoy (0.1) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) 0.0 (0.0) (0.1) (0.0) 0.0 0.0 (0.0) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) (0.0) yoy (%) -3% -1% -6% -6% -4% -8% -6% 0% -1% -4% 0% -1% -5% -1% 2% 2% -1% -13% -13% -12% -12% -12% 0% Opec 39.2 38.1 37.8 37.6 37.9 37.9 37.8 38.1 39.2 39.2 39.3 39.0 39.6 39.5 39.9 40.8 40.0 39.7 39.8 41.1 41.3 40.5 41.8 yoy 1.5 (1.0) (0.3) (1.0) (0.5) 0.5 (0.3) 0.3 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.6 0.3 0.7 1.5 1.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 0.5 0.5 1.3 yoy (%) 4% -3% -1% -3% -1% 1% -1% 1% 4% 4% 4% 3% 4% 1% 2% 4% 3% 0% 1% 3% 1% 1% 3% Opec crude oil 32.9 31.8 31.4 31.3 31.4 31.5 31.4 31.7 32.7 32.6 32.7 32.4 32.9 32.8 33.2 34.0 33.2 33.0 33.0 34.2 34.4 33.6 34.8 yoy 1.3 (1.1) (0.4) (1.1) (0.5) 0.3 (0.4) 0.3 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.2 0.1 0.5 1.4 0.8 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.4 0.4 1.1 yoy (%) 4% -3% -1% -3% -2% 1% -1% 1% 5% 4% 4% 3% 4% 0% 2% 4% 2% 0% 1% 3% 1% 1% 3% of which Saudi Arabia 10.0 9.9 10.0 9.9 10.0 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.2 10.3 10.2 10.5 10.5 10.4 10.1 10.1 10.7 10.8 10.4 11.1 yoy 0.5 (0.1) 0.6 0.1 (0.4) (0.3) 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 (0.3) 0.2 0.3 0.1 (0.3) (0.1) 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.6 yoy (%) 5% -1% 6% 1% -4% -3% 0% 0% 5% 3% 5% 3% 3% -3% 2% 3% 1% -2% -1% 2% 3% 1% 6% Opec non-crude 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.9 6.9 6.8 7.0 yoy 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 yoy (%) 4% 0% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 0% 3% 3% 3% 2% 6% 3% 3% 3% 3% 0% 0% 1% 2% 1% 2% Processing Gains 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 Source: Credit Suisse Research, IEA, Petrologistics, EIA, NBP, ANP 48

Oil Macro Global Balances (Inventories) Balance 2012 2013 Q1-'14 Q2-'14 Q3-'14 Q4-'14 2014 Q1-'15 Q2-'15 Q3-'15 Q4-'15 2015 Q1-'16 Q2-'16 Q3-'16 Q4-'16 2016 Q1-'17 Q2-'17 Q3-'17 Q4-'17 2017 2018 implied inventory change (Mb/d) 0.7 (0.2) 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.9 0.8 1.9 2.4 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.4 (0.0) (0.7) 0.1 0.2 (1.1) (1.2) (1.2) (0.8) (1.1) (0.1) reported inventory change (Mb/d) 0.3 (0.0) 1.0 2.3 1.5 (0.6) 1.1 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.0 1.7 1.0 1.0 0.4 OECD 0.2 (0.1) 0.3 0.8 0.8 (0.2) 0.4 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.4 (0.0) non-oecd 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 oil at sea (0.0) 0.0 (0.1) 1.0 0.2 (0.4) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.2 (0.0) call on Opec & stocks 32.2 32.0 30.7 30.2 31.1 30.5 30.6 29.8 30.2 31.8 31.4 30.8 31.5 32.8 33.8 33.9 33.0 34.1 34.2 35.4 35.2 34.7 34.9 yoy (0.6) (0.2) (1.0) (1.7) (1.5) (1.4) (1.4) (0.9) 0.0 0.7 0.8 0.2 1.7 2.6 2.1 2.5 2.2 2.5 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.7 0.2 yoy (%) -2% -1% -3% -5% -4% -4% -4% -3% 0% 2% 3% 1% 6% 9% 7% 8% 7% 8% 4% 5% 4% 5% 0% call on Saudi & stocks 9.4 10.1 9.3 8.9 9.6 8.8 9.1 8.1 8.0 9.4 8.9 8.6 8.9 10.2 11.2 10.4 10.1 11.1 11.2 12.0 11.6 11.5 11.1 yoy (1.4) 0.7 (0.0) (0.4) (1.3) (2.0) (0.9) (1.2) (0.9) (0.2) 0.1 (0.5) 0.8 2.2 1.7 1.5 1.5 2.3 1.1 0.8 1.2 1.3 (0.3) yoy (%) -13% 8% 0% -5% -12% -18% -9% -13% -10% -2% 1% -6% 10% 27% 18% 17% 18% 25% 10% 7% 12% 13% -3% call on US onshore crude + NGLs & stocks 6.9 9.0 8.8 9.1 10.2 10.1 9.6 9.3 8.9 10.3 9.9 9.6 9.5 10.9 11.3 10.3 10.5 11.4 11.7 12.1 12.0 11.8 12.1 yoy (0.8) 2.0 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.0 0.6 0.4 (0.2) 0.1 (0.2) 0.0 0.3 2.0 0.9 0.5 0.9 1.9 0.8 0.9 1.7 1.3 0.3 yoy (%) -10% 30% 8% 13% 7% 0% 7% 5% -3% 1% -2% 0% 3% 22% 9% 5% 10% 20% 7% 8% 16% 13% 2% Inventories 2012 2013 Q1-'14 Q2-'14 Q3-'14 Q4-'14 2014 Q1-'15 Q2-'15 Q3-'15 Q4-'15 2015 Q1-'16 Q2-'16 Q3-'16 Q4-'16 2016 Q1-'17 Q2-'17 Q3-'17 Q4-'17 2017 2018 reported inventory (billion bls) 4.85 4.84 4.93 5.14 5.28 5.23 5.23 5.40 5.59 5.74 5.84 5.84 5.93 6.02 6.06 6.04 6.04 5.93 5.83 5.72 5.64 5.64 5.60 OECD 2.68 2.63 2.65 2.73 2.80 2.78 2.78 2.88 2.98 3.06 3.09 3.09 3.12 3.15 3.15 non-oecd 1.35 1.40 1.47 1.51 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.62 1.70 1.77 1.79 1.79 1.82 1.86 1.90 oil at sea 0.82 0.82 0.81 0.90 0.93 0.89 0.89 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.96 0.96 0.99 1.01 1.01 days demand cover (excl. China SPR) 50.0 49.9 51.4 51.5 52.7 51.6 51.6 53.9 54.3 55.9 55.9 55.9 56.2 55.7 55.7 55.4 55.4 54.5 52.6 51.3 50.9 50.9 49.0 yoy (0.4) (0.0) 0.3 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.7 2.5 2.8 3.2 4.3 4.3 2.3 1.4 (0.2) (0.6) (0.6) (1.7) (3.1) (4.5) (4.4) (4.4) (1.9) yoy (%) -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 3% 3% 5% 5% 6% 8% 8% 4% 3% 0% -1% -1% -3% -6% -8% -8% -8% -4% OECD 58.0 57.0 59.2 59.3 60.7 59.5 59.5 63.7 63.3 66.5 66.3 66.3 68.2 66.8 67.4 yoy 1.4 (1.0) (0.4) 0.9 1.7 2.6 2.6 4.5 4.1 5.8 6.8 6.8 4.4 3.4 0.9 yoy (%) 2% -2% -1% 2% 3% 5% 5% 8% 7% 10% 11% 11% 7% 5% 1% non-oecd 41.8 42.9 44.0 43.9 45.0 43.8 43.8 44.7 45.5 46.1 46.0 46.0 45.2 45.1 44.9 yoy (1.9) 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.5 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.6 1.1 2.2 2.2 0.5 (0.4) (1.2) yoy (%) -4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 4% 3% 5% 5% 1% -1% -3% 100 99 98 97 96 95 94 93 Demand (3 mma) Supply 92 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 approx impact of Opec deal 3.0 implied inventory change 3 mma 2.5 reported inventory change 3 mma 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 - (0.5) (1.0) (1.5) (2.0) Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Source: Credit Suisse Research, IEA, JODI, EIA, NBP, ANP 49

Oil Macro Global Inventory Data million barrels YoY diff to 2010-2014 avg IEA+JODI+China Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Reported Commercial Oil Inventories + China SPR 5,707 5,742 5,763 5,792 5,838 5,866 5,906 5,932 5,956 6,030 6,022 6,096 6,075 6,057 368 315 1,088 1,063 China SPR 210 223 222 221 245 231 257 280 305 324 323 338 350 367 140 145 289 298 Reported Commercial Oil Inventories 5,497 5,520 5,542 5,570 5,592 5,635 5,648 5,653 5,651 5,706 5,699 5,757 5,725 5,690 228 170 799 765 crude 2,991 3,004 3,089 3,075 3,107 3,092 3,089 3,107 3,098 3,125 3,127 3,109 3,096 3,092 105 89 482 474 products 2,506 2,516 2,453 2,496 2,485 2,543 2,559 2,546 2,552 2,581 2,572 2,649 2,629 2,598 124 81 317 291 OECD 2,935 2,942 2,944 2,961 2,974 3,010 3,010 3,004 3,015 3,039 3,042 3,091 3,072 3,043 137 101 370 347 crude 1,126 1,122 1,159 1,148 1,172 1,173 1,190 1,200 1,203 1,211 1,205 1,202 1,177 1,168 50 46 208 202 products 1,809 1,820 1,785 1,813 1,802 1,837 1,820 1,804 1,811 1,828 1,836 1,889 1,896 1,875 87 55 162 145 North America 1,522 1,530 1,534 1,552 1,550 1,572 1,568 1,578 1,588 1,590 1,598 1,625 1,622 1,604 100 73 276 252 crude 578 580 607 611 605 626 641 654 657 652 647 643 635 616 57 35 161 140 products 944 950 927 941 945 946 928 923 931 938 951 982 987 988 43 38 114 112 Europe 964 967 971 980 990 1,014 1,020 1,005 1,006 1,015 1,006 1,024 1,008 990 45 23 73 69 crude 343 340 347 346 361 356 354 349 352 356 356 363 354 351 11 11 27 30 products 621 627 624 634 629 658 667 655 654 658 649 661 654 638 34 11 45 39 Asia 449 445 439 428 435 425 422 421 420 434 438 442 442 450-7 5 22 26 crude 205 202 205 191 206 192 196 196 194 203 202 196 187 201-17 -1 19 32 products 244 242 234 237 229 234 226 225 226 232 236 245 255 248 10 6 2-6 Non-OECD 1,453 1,457 1,439 1,447 1,453 1,453 1,461 1,451 1,442 1,453 1,444 1,453 1,448 1,443-5 -14 189 178 crude 862 872 875 869 871 850 836 818 804 811 811 801 811 817-50 -55 52 50 products 591 585 564 578 582 603 625 633 638 642 633 652 636 626 45 41 137 128 EM Asia 618 612 586 590 595 607 618 613 612 618 606 607 606 601-12 -12 30 24 crude 339 343 335 333 334 337 332 329 325 328 325 315 331 334-9 -9 11 14 products 279 270 252 257 261 271 285 284 287 289 282 292 275 266-3 -3 19 10 Middle East 501 506 519 517 519 514 513 507 504 501 497 494 493 490-7 -16 82 76 crude 375 374 389 383 382 373 367 358 353 352 351 344 341 338-34 -36 29 22 products 126 132 130 135 136 141 146 149 152 149 145 151 152 152 27 20 52 54 Latin America 120 120 115 117 117 120 119 114 110 115 115 113 116 117-4 -3 11 11 crude 55 58 54 55 57 55 51 48 45 49 49 48 51 54-4 -4 4 6 products 65 63 62 62 61 65 67 66 66 66 66 65 65 63 0 1 6 5 Africa 139 140 140 144 145 136 135 143 139 141 146 160 155 158 16 18 65 66 crude 54 57 58 58 59 48 48 47 44 41 45 55 48 51-6 -6 6 7 products 85 83 83 85 86 89 88 97 95 99 101 106 107 108 22 25 59 59 Europe 37 39 37 40 38 37 37 36 37 40 41 39 38 38 1-1 3 3 crude 17 19 17 19 18 16 16 16 15 17 19 18 18 19 1 0 1 2 products 21 21 20 20 21 21 21 20 22 22 21 21 20 20 0-1 1 1 FSU 38 39 40 40 39 39 39 38 39 39 39 39 40 39 1 0-1 -1 crude 22 22 23 21 21 21 22 21 23 22 22 22 23 22 1 1 0-1 products 16 18 18 18 17 17 18 17 17 17 17 18 17 17 0-1 -1 0 Independent Storage 205 211 202 205 201 202 213 206 202 210 204 211 196 198-9 -13 78 78 Singapore products 51 54 52 52 49 47 56 53 51 58 50 55 48 49-3 -5 7 7 ARA crude 60 60 58 60 59 58 59 58 59 59 61 63 60 61 0 1 39 41 ARA products 54 57 53 53 53 56 58 56 52 52 52 52 49 48-6 -9 11 11 Saldana Bay 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 0 0 20 19 Oil at Sea 904 910 957 958 965 971 964 992 992 1,005 1,010 1,003 1,009 1,006 105 96 162 162 Oil in Transit 894 900 947 948 955 961 952 977 972 979 984 993 997 998 103 98 172 174 Floating Storage 10 10 10 10 10 10 12 15 20 26 26 10 12 8 2-2 -10-12 Source: Credit Suisse Research, IEA, JODI, EIA, Country Data 50

Oil Macro Global Inventory Data (cont d) IEA+JODI+China YoY diff to 2010-2014 avg million barrels Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Reported Commercial Oil Inventories + China SPR 5,707 5,742 5,763 5,792 5,838 5,866 5,906 5,932 5,956 6,030 6,022 6,096 6,075 6,057 368 315 1,088 1,063 China SPR 210 223 222 221 245 231 257 280 305 324 323 338 350 367 140 145 289 298 Reported Commercial Oil Inventories 5,497 5,520 5,542 5,570 5,592 5,635 5,648 5,653 5,651 5,706 5,699 5,757 5,725 5,690 228 170 799 765 crude 2,991 3,004 3,089 3,075 3,107 3,092 3,089 3,107 3,098 3,125 3,127 3,109 3,096 3,092 105 89 482 474 products 2,506 2,516 2,453 2,496 2,485 2,543 2,559 2,546 2,552 2,581 2,572 2,649 2,629 2,598 124 81 317 291 North America 1,522 1,530 1,534 1,552 1,550 1,572 1,568 1,578 1,588 1,590 1,598 1,625 1,622 1,604 100 73 276 252 crude 578 580 607 611 605 626 641 654 657 652 647 643 635 616 57 35 161 140 products 944 950 927 941 945 946 928 923 931 938 951 982 987 988 43 38 114 112 Europe 1,039 1,046 1,049 1,059 1,067 1,089 1,097 1,078 1,082 1,093 1,085 1,102 1,086 1,067 47 21 75 71 crude 382 380 387 386 400 393 392 386 390 396 397 402 395 392 14 12 29 31 products 658 666 662 673 667 696 705 692 693 697 688 700 691 675 34 9 46 40 Asia 1,067 1,057 1,025 1,018 1,030 1,032 1,040 1,034 1,033 1,052 1,045 1,049 1,048 1,050-20 -7 52 50 crude (ex China SPR) 544 545 540 524 540 528 528 525 519 531 527 511 518 536-26 -9 31 46 products 523 512 485 494 490 504 512 510 513 521 517 538 530 515 7 3 21 4 Middle East 501 506 519 517 519 514 513 507 504 501 497 494 493 490-7 -16 82 76 crude 375 374 389 383 382 373 367 358 353 352 351 344 341 338-34 -36 29 22 products 126 132 130 135 136 141 146 149 152 149 145 151 152 152 27 20 52 54 Latin America 120 120 115 117 117 120 119 114 110 115 115 113 116 117-4 -3 11 11 crude 55 58 54 55 57 55 51 48 45 49 49 48 51 54-4 -4 4 6 products 65 63 62 62 61 65 67 66 66 66 66 65 65 63 0 1 6 5 Africa 139 140 140 144 145 136 135 143 139 141 146 160 155 158 16 18 65 66 crude 54 57 58 58 59 48 48 47 44 41 45 55 48 51-6 -6 6 7 products 85 83 83 85 86 89 88 97 95 99 101 106 107 108 22 25 59 59 Independent Storage 205 211 202 205 201 202 213 206 202 210 204 211 196 198-9 -13 78 78 Singapore products 51 54 52 52 49 47 56 53 51 58 50 55 48 49-3 -5 7 7 ARA crude 60 60 58 60 59 58 59 58 59 59 61 63 60 61 0 1 39 41 ARA Products 54 57 53 53 53 56 58 56 52 52 52 52 49 48-6 -9 11 11 Saldana Bay 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 0 0 20 19 Oil at Sea 904 910 957 958 965 971 964 992 992 1,005 1,010 1,003 1,009 1,006 105 96 162 162 Oil in Transit 894 900 947 948 955 961 952 977 972 979 984 993 997 998 103 98 172 174 Floating Storage 10 10 10 10 10 10 12 15 20 26 26 10 12 8 2-2 -10-12 days of cover YoY diff to 2010-2014 avg Demand Cover Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Reported Commercial Oil Inventories + China SPR 58.1 59.4 58.6 59.6 59.7 59.3 60.4 60.4 60.6 61.7 60.5 60.8 60.8 61.3 2.7 1.9 8.1 8.6 Reported Commercial Oil Inventories 55.0 55.9 55.2 56.1 55.9 55.8 56.5 56.2 56.0 56.8 55.7 55.8 55.6 55.7 0.7-0.2 3.9 4.1 OECD 65.6 66.5 65.7 66.3 66.3 66.0 67.2 68.2 68.0 67.8 66.8 67.4 67.8 67.4 2.1 0.9 8.3 8.3 North America 62.7 63.5 63.7 64.6 64.4 64.5 65.2 66.4 65.7 65.0 64.7 65.6 66.0 65.4 3.3 1.9 9.6 9.0 Europe 70.9 73.7 73.7 75.8 76.1 75.2 75.5 75.1 75.0 74.5 72.4 72.5 72.9 73.4 2.0-0.4 6.3 6.8 Asia 59.9 58.0 53.7 51.2 51.6 50.7 53.4 56.2 57.7 59.2 58.0 57.9 58.8 57.8-1.1-0.2 3.8 4.4 Non-OECD 45.0 46.1 45.4 46.5 46.0 46.0 46.5 45.2 44.9 46.4 45.1 44.9 44.3 44.9-0.8-1.2 0.4 1.0 EM Asia 35.5 35.3 33.5 33.3 33.8 33.8 34.0 34.1 34.1 35.6 35.2 34.3 34.0 33.2-1.5-2.1-3.0-3.2 Middle East 66.0 68.8 74.3 76.5 77.6 75.6 73.9 72.1 71.0 70.6 66.7 67.2 67.5 65.4 1.4-3.4 5.5 0.7 Crude Production Cover 19.8 19.9 20.5 20.0 19.8 19.1 18.8 18.2 17.8 17.6 17.4 17.1 16.8 16.4-3.0-3.5-1.1-1.8 Latin America 25.4 25.9 25.2 26.7 26.7 26.1 26.1 25.4 24.7 25.0 24.7 24.1 24.8 25.9-0.5 0.0 1.3 1.9 Africa 114.9 112.8 111.6 112.5 113.6 107.0 106.9 114.0 111.7 118.6 124.8 135.6 128.5 126.6 13.6 13.7 48.4 46.1 Source: Credit Suisse Research, IEA, JODI, EIA, Country Data 51

US Gulf Coast (USGC)

2014 2015 2016 201 4 201 5 201 6 USGC Crude Spreads Brent LLS ($/b) $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 -$2 -$4 -$6 LLS Houston ($/b) $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 J-13 N-13 M-14 J-14 N-14 M-15 J-15 N-15 M-16 J-16 Houston WTI ($/b) LLS MARS ($/b) $15 $10 $5 Houston WTI ($/b) -$5 J-13 N-13 M-14 J-14 N-14 M-15 J-15 N-15 M-16 J-16 $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service 53

201 4 201 5 201 6 USGC Crude Spreads (cont d) LLS MAYA ($/b) RFO LLS ($/b) $25 $20 -$5 2014 2015 2016 $15 -$10 $10 -$15 $5 -$20 -$25 Brent ASCI ($/b) $16 2014 2015 2016 $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 Arab Light MARS ($/b) $5 2014 2015 2016 $4 $3 $2 $1 -$1 -$2 Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service 54

2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 USGC Crack Spreads and Refining Margins US Gulf Coast gasoline cracks ($/b) (LLS based) $40 $30 $20 $10 US Gulf Coast distillate cracks ($/b) (LLS based) $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 -$10 US Gulf Coast gasoline cracks ($/b) (WTI based) $40 $30 $20 $10 -$10 US Gulf Coast distillate cracks ($/b) (WTI based) $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service 55

2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 USGC Crack Spreads and Refining Margins (cont d) US Gulf Coast 3-2-1 ($/b) (WTI based) $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 US Gulf Coast 3-2-1 ($/b) (MAYA based) $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 US Gulf Coast 3-2-1 ($/b) (LLS based) $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 -$5 VGO cracks vs LLS 3-2-1 Gulf Coast crack ($/b) $30 VGO crack LLS 3-2-1 crack $20 $10 -$10 -$20 J-14 J-15 J-16 Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service 56

USGC PADD III Refinery Runs PADD III crude runs (Mb/d) PADD III crude inventories (Mbs) 9.5 9 8.5 8 7.5 7 6.5 5 year average 2015 2016 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 125 5 year average 2015 2016 6 100 PADD III utilization (% of total refinery operable capacity) 100% 4 year average 2015 2016 90% PADD III CDU maintenance forecast (kb/d of capacity offline) 1200 5 yr ave 2015 2016 frcst 2016 actuals 1000 800 600 80% 400 200 70% 0 Source: Credit Suisse Research, EIA 57

USGC PADD III Inventories and Crude Flows PADD III crude inventories (Mbs) PADD III crude days of forward cover 300 275 5 year average 2015 2016 35 5 year average 2015 2016 250 30 225 200 25 175 150 20 125 100 15 PADD III domestic crude production, monthly data (Mb/d) 5 year average 2015 6 2015 exit rate 2016 5 4 PADD III crude oil imports (Mb/d) 8 5 year average 2015 2016 7 6 5 3 4 3 2 D 2 Source: Credit Suisse Research, EIA 58

USGC PADD III Storage Capacity and Detail PADD III crude inventories and forecast (Mbs) 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 J-10 J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J-16 August-16 PADD III Working crude storage capacity (thousands of barrels) Total Shell capacity (incl. idle capacity) Total operable shell capacity Total working capacity Current inventories PADD III refineries 93,842 91,650 59,573 47,906 Texas Inland 1,793 Texas Gulf Coast 27,266 La. Gulf Coast 17,281 N. La., Ark 1,254 New Mexico 312 Tank farms (excluding SPR) 269,238 260,493 226,038 198,568 12/9/2016 PADD III Working crude storage capacity (thousands of barrels) Total Shell capacity (incl. idle capacity) Total operable shell capacity Total working capacity * Current inventories "Head Room" till working capacity is full # of weeks till full Three week average build PADD III (excluding SPR): 363,080 352,143 356,382 246,133 110,249-2,491 NA (*) Note: has been adjusted to account for oil in transit as well as a level of max fill at refineries below the EIA working capacity number Source: Credit Suisse Research, EIA 59

Permian

2014 2015 2016 201 4 201 5 201 6 Permian Crude Spreads WTI (Cushing) WTI (Midland) ($/b) $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 -$5 WTI (Cushing) WTS (Midland) ($/b) $20 $15 $10 $5 -$5 Permian basin crude production (kb/d) Permian Region 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 J-07 J-08 J-09 J-10 J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J-16 Permian rig count 600 520 Permian 440 360 280 200 120 F-11 F-12 F-13 F-14 F-15 F-16 Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, EIA, Baker Hughes 61

Permian Pipeline Map Permian pipeline map Source: Pioneer Natural Resources 62

Mid - Continent

2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 Mid Continent Crude Spreads WTI LLS ($/b) $2 -$2 -$4 -$6 -$8 -$10 -$12 -$14 WCS Canadian Heavy LLS ($/b) -$5 -$10 -$15 -$20 -$25 -$30 -$35 Syncrude LLS ($/b) $6 $4 $2 -$2 -$4 -$6 -$8 -$10 -$12 Bakken (Clearbrook) LLS ($/b) -$2 -$4 -$6 -$8 -$10 -$12 -$14 -$16 Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service 64

2014 2015 2016 201 4 201 5 201 6 2014 2015 2016 Mid Continent Crack Spreads and Product Differentials US Mid-Continent Cushing 3-2-1 ($/b) (WTI based) US Rockies 5-3-2 ($/b) (WTI based) $60 2014 2015 2016 $60 $50 $50 $40 $40 $30 $30 $20 $20 $10 $10 Mid-Con USGC gasoline price ($/b) $40 $30 $20 $10 -$10 -$20 Mid-Con USGC distillate price ($/b) $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 -$5 -$10 Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service 65

Mid Continent PADD II Refinery Runs PADD II crude runs (Mb/d) 4 5 year average 2015 2016 3.75 3.5 3.25 3 PADD II crude inventories (Mbs) 170 5 year average 2015 2016 150 130 110 90 70 2.75 50 PADD II utilization (% of total refinery operable capacity) 110% 4 year average 2015 2016 100% 90% 80% PADD II CDU maintenance forecast (kb/d of capacity offline) 1000 5 yr ave 2015 2016 frcst 2016 actuals 800 600 400 200 70% 0 Source: Credit Suisse Research, EIA 66

Mid Continent PADD IV Refinery Runs PADD IV crude runs (Mb/d) 0.7 5 year average 2015 2016 0.65 0.6 0.55 0.5 0.45 0.4 PADD IV inventories (Mbs) 27.5 5 year average 2015 2016 25 22.5 20 17.5 15 12.5 10 PADD IV utilization (% of total refinery operable capacity) 110% 4 year average 2015 2016 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% PADD IV CDU maintenance forecast (kb/d of capacity offline) 120 5 yr ave 2015 2016 frcst 2016 actuals 100 80 60 40 20 0 Source: Credit Suisse Research, EIA 67

Mid Continent PADD II & IV Inventories and Crude Flows PADD II crude inventories (Mbs) PADD IV inventories (Mbs) 170 5 year average 2015 2016 27.5 5 year average 2015 2016 150 25 130 22.5 110 90 70 20 17.5 15 12.5 50 10 PADD II + IV domestic crude production, monthly data (Mb/d) 3.5 5 year average 2015 2015 exit rate 2016 2.5 1.5 PADD II + IV crude oil imports (Mb/d) 3.5 5 year average 2015 2016 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 0.5 D 1.0 Source: Credit Suisse Research, EIA 68

Mid Continent PADD II Product Stocks/Storage Capacity PADD II total gasoline inventories (Mbs) 65 5 year average 2015 2016 60 55 50 45 PADD II total middle distillate inventories (Mbs) 40 5 year average 2015 2016 35 30 25 40 20 August-16 PADD II Working crude storage capacity (thousands of barrels) Total Shell capacity (incl. idle capacity) Total operable shell capacity Total working capacity Current inventories PADD II refineries 25,410 24,677 18,508 14,544 Tank farms (excluding SPR) 153,667 150,637 123,639 133,087 Cushing Ok 88,010 87,685 73,014 64,351 12/9/2016 PADD II Working crude storage capacity (thousands of barrels) Total Shell capacity (incl. idle capacity) Total operable shell capacity Total working capacity * Current inventories "Head Room" till working capacity is full # of weeks till full Three week average build PADD II (excluding SPR): 179,077 175,314 177,369 148,298 29,071 1,793 16 Cushing Ok 88,010 87,685 73,014 66,508 6,506 2,475 3 (*) Note: has been adjusted to account for oil in transit as well as a level of max fill at refineries below the EIA working capacity number Source: Credit Suisse Research, EIA 69

West Coast

2014 2015 2016 201 4 201 5 201 6 West Coast Crude & Crack Spreads ANS KERN ($/b) US West Coast 5-3-1-1 ($/b) (ANS based) $25 $70 $20 $15 $60 $50 $40 $10 $5 $30 $20 $10 Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service 71

West Coast PADD V Refinery Runs PADD V crude runs (Mb/d) PADD V crude inventories (Mbs) 3 5 year average 2015 2016 65 5 year average 2015 2016 2.75 2.5 2.25 2 1.75 60 55 50 45 1.5 40 PADD V utilization (% of total refinery operable capacity) 100% 4 year average 2015 2016 90% 80% 70% 60% PADD V CDU maintenance forecast (kb/d of capacity offline) 600 5 yr ave 2015 2016 frcst 2016 actuals 500 400 300 200 100 0 Source: Credit Suisse Research, EIA 72

West Coast PADD V Inventories and Crude Flows PADD V crude inventories (Mbs) PADD V crude days of forward cover 65 5 year average 2015 2016 30 5 year average 2015 2016 60 55 25 50 20 45 40 15 PADD V domestic crude production, monthly data (Mb/d) 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 5 year average 2015 2015 exit rate 2016 PADD V crude oil imports (Mb/d) 2.0 5 year average 2015 2016 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.9 D 0.0 Source: Credit Suisse Research, EIA 73

West Coast Gasoline Sales and Usage PADD V gasoline inventories (Mbs) 40 5 year average 2015 2016 35 30 25 20 PADD V diesel inventories (Mbs) 17 5 year average 2015 2016 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 PADD 5 finished motor gasoline demand (kb/d) SA T 13 Trend 1800 1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 J-95 J-97 J-99 J-01 J-03 J-05 J-07 J-09 J-11 J-13 J-15 California Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT, in billions) T 13 trend 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 J-95 J-97 J-99 J-01 J-03 J-05 J-07 J-09 J-11 J-13 J-15 Source: Credit Suisse Research, EIA, California Department of Transportation 74

West Coast PADD V Storage Capacity and Detail August-16 PADD V Working crude storage capacity (thousands of barrels) Total Shell capacity (incl. idle capacity) Total operable shell capacity Total working capacity Current inventories PADD V refineries 43,125 40,924 30,693 23,061 Tank farms (excluding SPR) 35,491 34,423 28,117 24,272 12/9/2016 PADD V Working crude storage capacity (thousands of barrels) Total Shell capacity (incl. idle capacity) Total operable shell capacity Total working capacity * Current inventories "Head Room" till working capacity is full # of weeks till full Three week average build PADD V (excluding SPR): 78,616 75,347 73,383 50,534 22,849-43 NA (*) Note: has been adjusted to account for oil in transit as well as a level of max fill at refineries below the EIA working capacity number Source: Credit Suisse Research, EIA 75

East Coast

201 4 201 5 201 6 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 East Coast Product Cracks & Gasoline Demand US East Coast 6-3-2-1 ($/b) (Brent based) $20 $15 $10 $5 US East Coast gasoline cracks ($/b) (Brent based) $30 $25 $20 $15 US East Coast diesel cracks ($/b) (Brent based) $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 PADD I gasoline demand, monthly data (kb/d) 3,600 5 year average 2015 2016 3,400 3,200 $10 $5 3,000 2,800 D Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, Platts, EIA 77

East Coast Structural Changes in the North East East Coast Refining Capacity vs. Regional Demand 2008-2014 (kb/d, unless otherwise noted) Capacity % of Capacity Demand Capacity as a % of Demand Capacity % of Capacity Philadelphia 335 11.3% 335 19.5% St. John 300 10.1% 300 17.4% Bayway 238 8.0% 238 13.8% Quebec City 235 7.9% 235 13.6% Trainer 185 6.2% 185 10.7% Delaware City 182 6.1% 182 10.6% Paulsboro 160 5.4% 160 9.3% United 65 2.2% 65 3.8% Ergon 22 0.7% 22 1.3% Hovensa 500 16.8% 0 0.0% Aruba 235 7.9% 0 0.0% Marcus Hook 178 6.0% 0 0.0% Earle Point 145 4.9% 0 0.0% Montreal 130 4.4% 0 0.0% Yorktown 66 2.2% 0 0.0% Demand Capacity as a % of Demand Total* 2976 100.0% 6540 45.5% 1722 100.0% 6173 27.9% (*) Note: Numbers include estimates for Quebec and the Canadian Maritime Provinces 2008 Today Source: Credit Suisse Research, EIA, CAPP, Company Data 78

Technicals

Other Technical Indicators Brent futures Managed Money positions (thousands of contracts) 600 Long MM Contracts Shorts 500 400 300 200 100 0 J-13M-13S-13 J-14M-14S-14 J-15M-15S-15 J-16 M-16S-16 WTI futures Managed Money positions (thousands of contracts) 400 Long MM Contracts Shorts 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 J-13M-13S-13 J-14M-14S-14 J-15M-15S-15 J-16 M-16S-16 Net length for Managed Money positions over the past year 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Brent MM WTI MM 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Current Hi Low Average Total Crude MM (contracts) Open interest for all categories over the past year (thousands of contracts) 2400 2300 2200 2100 2000 1900 1800 1700 1600 1500 Brent OI WTI OI 4800 4400 4000 3600 3200 Total Crude OI (contracts) Current Hi Low Average Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, CFTC, ICE 80

Other Technical Indicators - Continued Brent price technicals (lhs), trading volume & OI (rhs) WTI price technicals (lhs), trading volume & OI (rhs) OI (futures) Volume (futures) Brent Price 63 day mav 200 day mav 6000 OI (futures) Volume (futures) WTI Price 63 day mav 200 day mav 6000 100 100 4000 4000 50 2000 50 2000 0 S-14 D-14 M-15 J-15 S-15 D-15 M-16 J-16 S-16 0 0 S-14 D-14 M-15 J-15 S-15 D-15 M-16 J-16 S-16 0 Brent February 2017 options positioning by strike price 30 WTI February 2017 options positioning by strike price 30 20 20 10 10 0 0-10 Calls Puts -20 $6 $19 $31 $44 $56 $69 $81 $94 $106 $119 $131-10 Calls Puts -20 $4 $17 $29 $42 $54 $67 $79 $92 $104 $117 $129 Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, CFTC, ICE 81

Other Technical Indicators - Continued Brent futures curve open interest ($/b) WTI futures curve open interest ($/b) $70 $70 $60 $60 $50 $40 12/2/2016 12/9/2016 $50 $40 12/2/2016 12/9/2016 $30 $30 $20 J-16 A-16 M-17 S-17 A-18 O-18 M-19 D-19 J-20 J-21 $20 J-16 A-16 M-17 S-17 A-18 O-18 M-19 D-19 J-20 J-21 J-21 F-22 Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, CFTC, ICE 82

NGLs

NGL Prices & Fractionation Spreads Quarterly gross processing spread (ave. of weekly spreads) ($/gal.) 0.70.62 0.60.54 0.50 0.40.33 0.30.25.28.20.23 0.20 0.10 0.00 2013 2014 2015 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 TD Weekly gross processing spread ($/gal.) $1.60 Average Spread since 1992 =.32 $1.20.80.40.00 -.40 J-92 O-94 J-97 A-00 J-03 O-05 J-08 A-11 J-14 N-16 Components of NGL fractionation spread ($/MMBtu) NGL barrel economics (%) Ethane Propane Butane Isobutane Natural Gasoline $14 Ethane Contr. 100% Natural Propane Contr. $10 Normal Butane Contr. 80% Gasoline, 24% Isobutane Contr. Isobutane, $6 Natural Gasoline Contr. 60% 15% Butane, 13% $2 -$2 Avg NGL Frac Spread 2000- Avg NGL Frac Spd 2006 - -$6 05: ~$1.59/MMBtu Current: ~$7.32/MMBtu J-00 O-01 J-03 A-05 J-07 O-08 J-10 A-12 J-14 O-15 40% 20% 0% Ethane, 14% NGL Barrel Economics Propane, 34% Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, Platts 84

NGL Arb. & Chemicals Prices VLGC spot tanker day rates (thousands of $) F. East Chemicals Prices ($/MT) $150 $125 $100 $75 $50 $25 $- 2015 2016 5 yr average $17.50 $15.00 $12.50 $10.00 F. East Polypropylene $7.50 F. East Linear Low Density Polyethylene 2013 2014 2015 2016 USGC to Asia NGL arb. ($/gal.) $2.00 USGC to Europe NGL arb. ($/gal.) $2.00 $1.50 $1.50 $1.00.50 $- US propane ($/gal.) Asia net-back ($/gal.) Hypothetical Asia net-back post PCE ($/gal.) J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J-16 $1.00.50 $- US propane ($/gal.) Europe net-back ($/gal.) J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J-16 Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, Platts, Clarksons 85

Octane Monitor Aromatics and alky. should flag any imminent octane squeeze Butane RBOB ($/gal.) Alky FOB 87 unleaded waterborne gasoline ($/gal.).00 -.50 -$1.00 J A J O.80.60.40 2014 2015 2016 -$1.50.20 -$2.00 2014 2015 2016.00 Toluene LLS (RHS, $/gal.) vs. premium gasoline RBOB (LHS $/gal.) BTX aromatics ($/gal.) $2.00.60 $6.50 Benzene Toluene Xylenes $1.50 $1.00.50 Toluene - LLS Premium-RBOB spread.00 2013 2014 2015 2016.40.20.00 -.20 -.40 $5.50 $4.50 $3.50 $2.50 $1.50 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, Platts 86

Other

Other Wholesale & Retail Margins, LPGs & VMT Rack margins, spread vs. Gulf Coast price ($/gal).30.10 -.10 -.30 Tampa Jacksonville Atlanta (Athens) Chicago (East Chicago) -.50 M-13J-13S-13D-13M-14J-14S-14D-14M-15J-15S-15D-15M-16J-16S-16 US LPG Margins WTI ($/b) $50 Ethane Propane Normal Butane $25 Isobutane Natural Gasoline $- $(25) $(50) $(75) $(100) F-11 F-12 F-13 F-14 F-15 F-16 Weekly US retail composite margins (c/gal).60 5 yr avg 2015 2016.50.40.30.20.10.00 -.10 Vehicle Miles Traveled (LHS) vs. US gasoline demand (kb/d) VMT US MoGas demand (kb/d) 280 260 240 220 200 J-00 J-02 J-04 J-06 J-08 J-10 J-12 J-14 J-16 10 9.5 9 8.5 8 Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, EIA, DoT, U. Michigan TRI 88

Other Fuel Efficiency & Tanker Fixtures Apparent fuel efficiency (seasonally adjusted VMT/gasoline demand) Apparent fuel efficiency 29 28 27 26 J-02 J-04 J-06 J-08 J-10 J-12 J-14 J-16 Total tanker fixture volumes into the US (Mb/d) Total tanker fixture volumes into the US 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Average sales-weighted fuel-economy rating of new car sales Sales weighted MPG 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 J-08 J-09 J-10 J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 J-16 Outgoing tanker fixtures from the Arabian Gulf Total fixtures out of AG (CS estmates) 175 125 75 25 Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, EIA, DoT, U. Michigan TRI, MAREX, Clarksons 89

East Coast EQuivalent Breakeven margin $/bbl Other Our Global Refining Cost Curve The US is at the bottom left 20 2012 Throughput Cost Curve 2017 Throughput Cost Curve 15 10 5 0-5 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 Cumulative Throughput Source: Credit Suisse Research, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, EIA, OGJ 90

Disclosures