GLOBAL RETIREMENT INSIGHTS CHIP CASTILLE BlackRock Chief Retirement Strategist
Retirement systems around the globe are still evolving There are 5 common themes driving retirement research, product development and commercial opportunity around the world. Demographic Changes We ve explored these themes and built our community of retirement thoughtleaders through the launch of an international Retirement Institute Increased Regulatory Activity Shift to Defined Contribution Technology and Product Design Focus on Retirement Income For information purposes only. 2
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100 Retirement systems around the globe are still evolving Dramatic increases in life expectancy are having large implications for not only the workforce, but political, health and other social systems Demographic Changes Increased Regulatory Activity 400% Cumulative rate of change in working age and old age populations 2015-2100 1 Shift to Defined Contribution Technology and Product Design Focus on Retirement Income 300% 200% 100% 0% Rate of old age population change Rate of working age population change For illustrative purposes only. Source: World Economic Forum, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/03/167-years-of-the-us-age-demographic-in-one-chart?utm_content=buffer6b571&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer 3
Retirement systems around the globe are still evolving Regulatory changes around the globe are causing retirement markets to converge towards a more similar approach Demographic Changes Increased Regulatory Activity Shift to Defined Contribution Technology and Product Design Focus on Retirement Income COVERAGE Japan: Government expected to expand coverage of Individual DC (JIDC) nationwide UK: NEST program promotes coverage, offering access to retirement savings vehicles outside an employer CHOICE Netherlands: Reforms may move the Netherlands towards pension freedoms within DC system CARE United States: DOL just passed a new fiduciary rule for advisors providing retirement advice For information purposes only. 4
Equity Allocation Retirement systems around the globe are still evolving Multinational organizations are increasingly interested in Defined Contribution solutions for global workforces Demographic Changes Local outcomes + global benefits may be achieved with the right Target Date Fund platform Increased Regulatory Activity Life Expectancy Labor Market Wages Capital Markets 100% Shift to Defined Contribution Technology and Product Design 75% 50% 25% Focus on Retirement Income 0% 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 Age United States Japan Taiwan Mexico INSERT SOURCE AND DATE Sweden UK Canada For Illustrative Purposes Only 5
Retirement income remains a highest need across channels Individuals Advisors Institutions CLIENT S MOST IMPORTANT RETIREMENT GOALS 1 RETIREMENT INCOME DOMINATES ADVISORS MOST REQUESTED RETIREMENT TRAINING INITIATIVE 1 65% HAVE ENOUGH MONEY TO LAST YOUR LIFETIME 41% 18% 12% 48% Income beats advisors next area of interest by 17 points 69% REMAIN FINANCIALLY INDEPENDENT 25% 22% 17% MOST IMPORTANT SECOND MOST IMPORTANT THIRD MOST IMPORTANT SOCIAL SECURITY CLAIMING STRATEGIES INCOME AND EXPENSE PLANNING FOR RETIREMENT of employers need for retirement income solutions in retirement plans 2 1. LIMRA Secure Retirement Institute s Retirement Income Reference Book 2015 2. BlackRock DC Pulse Survey, 2016 For information purposes only. 6
Intention to Increase Savings (5 = Highest intended increase) Traditional wealth management tools only solve for part of the problem There are still two issues people struggle with that prevent them from solving the retirement problem in income terms. Retirement Costs 1 Life Expectancy 2 5 4 Seeing retirement prospects in income terms vs. a lump sum increases savings rates 41% 60% underestimate longevity Equates to underestimating the cost of one s retirement 3 2 19% 18% 12% 12% 1 $100K $250K $500K $1M $2M Amount Saved Presented in income terms Presented in lump sum terms -5 Years or More -4 to -2 Years Underestimate -1 to +1 Years +2 to +4 Years +5 Years or More Overestimate 1. Source: Goldstein, Daniel G. and Hershfield, Hal E. and Benartzi, Shlomo, The Illusion of Wealth and Its Reversal (January 28, 2014) 2. Source: Society of Actuaries, 2011 Risks and Process of Retirement Survey; SOA UP 1994 Projected to 2011; Average of retiree and pre-retirees; Totals may not sum due to rounding For information purposes only. 7
A benchmark for retirement income to solve for these shortfalls Such a benchmark should incorporate the three risks that investors now must manage: Must help translate changes in assets into income terms 2 LONGEVITY RISK Must ensure enough assets to sustain efficient consumption over an MARKET unknown period 1 RISK 3 Must understand retirement income costs to avoid a shortfall LIABILITY RISK For iillustrative purposes only. 8
Daily Index Level Introducing the BlackRock CoRI Retirement Indices A real-world method for estimating lifetime retirement income costs: Measure where you stand today Clear, intuitive translation: $1 per year for life with a cost-of-living adjustment to reduce impact of inflation Set a forward-looking strategic plan Increases as an investor approaches a chosen retirement date, then becomes less expensive 1 $500,000 Saved at age 60 $25 Retirement x CORI2020 $20.75 1 $20 $15 CORI2024 CORI2022 CORI2020 CORI2025 CORI2023 CORI2016 CORI2017 CORI2015 CORI2018 CORI2014 CORI2021 CORI2019 CORI2013 CORI2011 CORI2012 CORI2009 CORI2010 CORI2007 CORI2008 CORI2006 $24,096 estimated annual income starting at age 65 $10 Can also be expressed as a yield or rate of return (6.45%) Age 1. CoRI Index levels are subject to change over time and are shown for illustrative purposes only. Source: BlackRock as of June 30 2016. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Data shown does not represent an actual investment or account. For illustrative purposes only. 9
jun.-13 ago.-13 oct.-13 dic.-13 feb.-14 abr.-14 jun.-14 ago.-14 oct.-14 dic.-14 feb.-15 abr.-15 jun.-15 ago.-15 oct.-15 dic.-15 feb.-16 abr.-16 jun.-16 Putting it together: What can CoRI tell us about the retirement income outlook for US savers? CoRI performance 1 Impact to Retirement Income 2 The estimated cost of future retirement income for a 60-yearold increased almost 40% in the 3 years since launch: Change in Income Potential: -15.4% $22 $21 $20 $19 Needed $20.75 saved per dollar of retirement income Retirement Prospects for: 60-year-old investor $500,000 saved for retirement Expected retirement age of 65 38.52% $18 $17 $16 $15 Needed $14.98 saved per dollar of retirement income 23.12% $14 Market Performance Change in Retirement Income Cost 1. Source: Bloomberg, BlackRock; Data reflects CoRI Index 2020 performance since inception from 30 June 2013 30 June 2016. See prior slide for important information about the CoRI Indexes. 2. Source: Google Finance. Market performance reflects change in the S&P 500 Index from 30 June 2013 30 June 2016. For information purposes only. 10
Retirement Investing Framework: Saving phase Price 15 years to close gap How much investor needs saved to fund income goal How much investor actually has saved Process allows for flexibility around how investor chooses to course correct 15 10 5 0 Years to Retirement Risk-Free Cost of Retirement Expected Portfolio Value For illustrative purposes only. Example does not represent an actual account. 11
Retirement Investing Framework: Spending phase Price Like pre-retirement, investor may incur volatility How much investor actually has saved Process includes flexibility to re-evaluate periodic spending goals by varying portfolio How much investor needs saved to fund income goal Match assets for continued spending 0-5 -10-15 -20 Years in Retirement Risk-Free Cost of Retirement Expected Portfolio Value Realized Portfolio Value For illustrative purposes only. Example does not represent an actual account. 12
Ability to wrap this in a technology that delivers a repeatable and actionable client experience Assess client s current savings and progress towards meeting income goals Repeat next year and rebalance client s plan as markets or goals have changed WEB DEMO Build a savings and investment plan to help put clients on track for future income goals Execute new investment portfolio decisions For illustrative purposes only. 13
Where we re going Extending the framework for investors ages 60 84 who are currently in retirement and wrapping in a technology that will help to make decisions around various tradeoffs in retirement: Can I spend more today? What investment risk can I take? What s a sustainable spending rate? How can I ensure I won t outlive my money? Should I annuitize a portion of my income? Should I work longer? How do I protect against inflation? Do I need to find other sources of income? Will I have enough in the future? For illustrative purposes only. 14
Summarizing ability to deliver on the global retirement themes Demographic Changes Invest for longer life expectancy Increased Regulatory Activity Robust process, advice driven models Shift to Defined Contribution Quantify wealth in retirement-income terms Technology and Product Design Focus on Retirement Income Lifecycle investing, ability to manage outcomes Tradeoffs and solutions managing toward retirement income goals For information purposes only.
Important Notes iretire tool IMPORTANT: The projections or other information generated by the iretire tool (the tool ) regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Results may vary with each use and over time. Any information contained in or generated by the tool should not be construed as or relied upon as investment advice, research or a recommendation by BlackRock Investments, LLC or any of its affiliates (collectively, BlackRock ) regarding the use or suitability of any particular asset allocation, fund or overall investment strategy. The tool is designed to be used in consultation with an advisor and should not be relied on as a primary basis for an investment decision. Only an investor and their advisor know enough about the investor's circumstances to make an informed investment decision. Any decision to implement a portfolio or asset allocation generated by the iretire tool is solely an advisor s decision in consultation with the client. The tool and BlackRock s CoRI methodology do not guarantee future income or protect against loss of principal. There can be no assurance that an investment strategy based on the tool or BlackRock s CoRI methodology will be successful. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. 2016 BlackRock, Inc. All rights reserved. BLACKROCK, iretire and CoRI are registered trademarks of BlackRock, Inc. or its subsidiaries in the United States and elsewhere. All other marks are the property of their respective owners. 16
Important Information Information on the BlackRock Retirement Research Center ( BRRC ) is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as research. The information on this website is not a complete analysis of the global retirement landscape. The opinions expressed herein are as of 2016 and are subject to change at any time due to changes in the market, the economic or regulatory environment or for other reasons. The material does not constitute investment, legal, tax or other advice and is not to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. The information and opinions contained herein are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, but are not necessarily all inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. No part of this material may be reproduced, stored in any retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, recording or otherwise, without the prior written consent of BlackRock. This publication is not intended for distribution to, or use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. 2016 BlackRock. All rights reserved. BLACKROCK is a registered trademark of BlackRock. All other marks are property of their respective owners. BLACKROCK IS NOT AUTHORIZED TO RECEIVE DEPOSITS, CARRY OUT INTERMEDIATION ACTIVITIES, OR ACT AS A BROKER DEALER, BANK OR A MUTUAL FUND OPERATING COMPANY IN MEXICO. MX-1778-08/16 17