` Market Review and Outlook The Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Index increased 141.51 points or 1.62% during the trading week to close at 8,891.16. Market capitalization increased by 1.90% to QR491.6 billion (bn) versus QR482.4bn at the end of the previous trading week. Of the 45 listed companies, 20 companies ended the week higher, while 24 declined and 1 remained unchanged. QNB Group (QNBK) was the best performing stock for the week with a gain of 8.12% on 4.1 million (mn) shares traded. On the other hand, Medicare (MCGS) was the worst performing stock for the week with a decline of 7.97% on 160.8k shares traded. QNB Group (QNBK), Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK) and Commercial Bank (CBQK) were the primary contributors to the weekly index increase. QNBK was the biggest contributor to the index s weekly increase, adding 114.0 points to the index. QIBK was the second biggest contributor to the mentioned gains, tacking on 68.0 points to the index. Moreover, CBQK added 39.4 points to the index. However, Industries Qatar (IQCD) deleted 26.2 points from the index. Trading value during the week increased by 65.14% to reach QR1.6bn versus QR974.3mn in the prior week. The Banks and Financial Services sector led the trading value during the week, accounting for 59.45% of the total trading value. The Industrials sector was the second biggest contributor to the overall trading value, accounting for 17.78% of the total trading value. QNBK was the top value traded stock during the week with total traded value of QR635.3mn. Trading volume decreased by 10.19% to reach 43.5mn shares versus 48.5mn shares in the prior week. The number of transactions increased by 24.77% to reach 20,716 transactions versus 16,603 transactions in the prior week. The Banks and Financial Services sector led the trading volume, accounting for 36.24%, followed by the Telecoms sector which accounted for 19.43% of the overall trading volume. Vodafone Qatar (VFQS) was the top volume traded stock during the week with 7.7mn shares. Foreign institutions turned bullish with net buying of QR296.5mn vs. net selling of QR30.5mn in the prior week. Qatari institutions turned bearish with net selling of QR117.6mn vs. net buying of QR7.0mn in the week before. Foreign retail investors remained bullish with net buying of QR2.5mn vs. net buying of QR5.8mn in the prior week. Qatari retail investors turned bearish with net selling of QR181.4mn vs. net buying of QR17.7mn the week before. Foreign institutions bought (on a net basis) ~$285mn worth of Qatari equities since the beginning of 2018. QSE Index and Volume 9,000 8,900 8,800 Market Indicators Week ended May 17, 2018 Week ended May 10, 2018 Chg. % Value Traded (QR mn) 1,608.9 974.3 65.1 Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) 491,559.2 482,387.0 1.9 Volume (mn) 43.5 48.5 (10.2) Number of Transactions 20,716 16,603 24.8 Companies Traded 45 44 2.3 Market Breadth 20:24 15:27 Market Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD% Total Return 15,665.24 1.6 (2.4) 9.6 ALL Share Index 2,602.86 1.7 (4.0) 6.1 Banks and Financial Services 3,136.48 5.2 1.0 16.9 Industrials 2,945.22 (1.0) (5.2) 12.4 Transportation 1,751.79 (1.4) (1.8) (0.9) Real Estate 1,636.75 (1.8) (15.1) (14.5) Insurance 3,011.98 4.2 (2.2) (13.4) Telecoms 964.95 (2.9) (12.0) (12.2) Consumer Goods & Services 5,674.76 (1.4) (4.3) 14.3 Al Rayan Islamic Index 3,541.86 (0.1) (4.6) 3.5 Market Indices Weekly Index Performance 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% (1.0%) (2.0%) 8,816.84 8,934.39 8,922.00 8,950.60 13-May 14-May 15-May 16-May 17-May 1.6% 1.1% 0.6% Qatar (QSE)* Dubai Saudi Arabia Volume 0.2% Bahrain QSE Index (0.1%) Abu Dhabi (0.4%) Kuwait 12,000,000 6,000,000 8,891.16 (1.4%) Oman 0 Regional Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD% Weekly Exchange Traded Value ($ mn) Exchange Mkt. Cap. ($ mn) TTM P/E** P/B** Dividend Yield Qatar (QSE)* 8,891.16 1.6 (2.4) 4.3 800.26 134,982.2 13.2 1.4 4.9 Dubai 2,912.62 1.1 (5.0) (13.6) 371.70 102,832.4 # 9.4 1.1 5.8 Abu Dhabi 4,431.71 (0.1) (5.1) 0.8 145.92 123,654.0 11.8 1.3 5.4 Saudi Arabia # 7,958.47 0.6 (3.1) 10.1 5,574.42 503,774.0 18.3 1.8 3.3 Kuwait 4,864.02 (0.4) 0.6 (2.7) 121.28 34,150.5 14.8 0.9 3.9 Oman 4,617.71 (1.4) (2.4) (9.4) 33.02 19,414.1 11.8 1.0 5.2 Bahrain 1,272.78 0.2 1.2 (4.4) 16.09 19,871.1 8.3 0.8 6.4 Source: Bloomberg, country exchanges and Zawya (** Trailing Twelve Months; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any; # Data as of May 16, 2018) Page 1 of 6
News Economic & Corporate News QNB Group: Qatari bank assets rise 8.8% to $383.2bn in March Banking assets in the country have grown 8.8% YoY to $383.2bn in March, QNB Group stated in its Qatar Monthly Monitor. Bank deposit growth was 9.1% YoY in March compared to 6% in February. Deposits from the non-resident and private sector remained stable in March. Credit growth was 9.6% in March, driven by lending to the public sector, which grew 15% YoY. In relation to Qatar economy, the report stated the country s current account surplus widened to 6.4% of GDP in the fourth quarter in line with higher oil prices while the financial account deficit narrowed. However, fiscal account remained in deficit in the third quarter but should recover subsequently as revenue rises in line with higher oil prices. Broad money supply (M2) grew by 16.1% in March compared to 15.7% in February. Interbank rates continue to rise in line with increases in US short-term rates. Exports grew 22% YoY in March as a result of higher oil prices while imports grew marginally at 1.3%. The real estate price index continued its recovery, rising 1% MoM in March. Inflation slowed to 0.1% in April, while food inflation eased and housing inflation picked up. (Gulf-Times.com) MSCI emerging markets index increases weight on several Qatari companies MSCI announced changes to its emerging markets index (effective on market close of May 31, 2018). As part of the review, Qatar as a whole will see an increase in its weight as part of the review with pro forma weights at 0.79%, up from 0.59% currently. QNB Group (QNBK) along with QIBK and QEWS, will experience weight increases as well with QNBK being the biggest beneficiary due to its almost doubling of weight in the MSCI EM Pro Forma Index (0.34% from 0.18%). On the other hand, as the market expected, QGTS will be removed from the standard index and included in the smallcap index. The result of the review should see significant foreign cash inflows into Qatar as part of the rebalancing with street estimates calling for ~$800mn in net inflows on implementation date. (QNBFS Research) Fitch: Less funding pressure at Qatari Islamic banks than conventional peers Qatari Islamic banks have less foreign funding and typically higher retail deposits than their conventional peers and are therefore less at risk of deposit flight, according to Fitch Ratings (Fitch). Nevertheless, liquidity pressures remain as for all Qatari banks due to the financial and economic sanctions on Qatar as well as higher funding costs. Islamic banks made up 23% of sector assets at end-2017. Qatari Islamic banks typically have better assetquality metrics than their conventional peers. However, the deterioration in metrics has been more pronounced due to pressure on the contracting and real-estate sectors, in which Islamic banks are concentrated, and to high single-name concentration. Reserve coverage is also weaker for Islamic banks. The average financing impairment charges-to-gross financing ratio remains below conventional banks due to specific asset-quality issues in a small number of conventional banks. Islamic banks profitability metrics are mildly weaker than their conventional peers due to lower returns on nonfinancing assets. Nevertheless, the main difference in the operating profit/risk-weighted assets (RWAs) ratio is QNB Group pulling up the conventional banks due to its strong metrics and lower RWAs. Rising rates and the political dispute resulted in increased funding costs in 2017, continuing pressure on profitability metrics. (Bloomberg) Qatar s reforms can mitigate challenges arising from property sector The lending growth in Qatar property market was more than 8% in first quarter 2018. Recently Qatar Cabinet has given its nod to a draft law on the regulation of ownership and usage of properties by non-qataris in the country. Under the terms of the draft law, non-qataris may own and use properties in Qatar in accordance with conditions specified by a decision of the Cabinet and based on suggestions of the commission for regulating non-qatari ownership and use of real estate. The provisions of the draft law are applicable to land space, buildings and residential units, as well as certain units in residential complexes. To attract greater tourism to Qatar, major investment will be required in developing tourist attractions, and bring successful initiatives such as Shop Qatar and the Summer Festival. The retail market witnessed launch of B Square Mall in Al Thumama in 2017, which combines retail units with extensive entertainment and leisure provisions. (Gulf-Times.com) growth rate for 20 years Qatar has been ranked first in the world index of countries that have achieved record economic growth in 20 years from 1997, according to a report carried by CNBC Arabia. Qatar achieved an average rate of 10.5% compound annual growth to come on top of the world. China ranked second with an economic growth rate of 9.1%, Ethiopia third with a growth rate of 8%, India fourth with 7% and Nigeria fifth in the world with 5.8% growth. Economic prospects for Qatar remain positive, with growth expected to reach 2.8% in 2018, while LNG production will rise to 100mn tons per year by 2023. The World Bank expects the Qatari economy to grow this year and expects an average growth of 3% in the next two years. The World Bank, in a recent report said that the increase in Qatar's energy export revenues will contribute to easing financial constraints, as well as spending on the multi-year program for infrastructure development in preparation for the 2022 FIFA World Cup and the launch of the $10bn Barzan Natural Gas Project in 2020. Qatar's gross domestic product (GDP) rose last year to $220bn, from $218bn in 2016, making a real GDP growth rate of 2%, which was better than expected. (Gulf-Times.com) S&P downgrades ERES to 'B' on weak results S&P cited Ezdan Holding Group s (ERES) lower-than-expected EBITDA in 1Q2018 for downgrade to B from BB- ; stated the company at risk of breaching maintenance covenants under several key bank loans and its Sukuk issuance due in 2022. Ongoing Qatar blockade, lower dividend income and potentially higher interest expenses are not sufficiently offset by contribution from newly handed over assets may, and may continue to subdue ERES performance. Creditwatch Negative reflects risk of further downgrades over next three months if the company suffers covenant breaches that are not properly managed. (Bloomberg) Page 2 of 6
Qatar Stock Exchange Top Gainers Top Decliners 9.0% 8.1% 8.0% 7.8% 0.0% 6.0% 6.4% 6.0% -3.0% -4.4% -3.8% 3.0% -6.0% -6.9% -6.9% 0.0% QNB Group Qatar Islamic Bank The Commercial Qatar Insurance Bank Milaha -9.0% -8.0% Medicare Group Mesaieed Qatar Gas Transport Ezdan Real Estate Petrochemical (Nakilat) Holding Company Dlala Holding Most Active Shares by Value (QR Million) Most Active Shares by Volume (Million) 750.0 635.3 9.0 7.7 500.0 6.0 4.7 4.1 250.0 3.0 3.2 2.8 126.3 105.6 104.2 70.1 0.0 QNB Group Industries Qatar Qatar Islamic Bank Qatar Electricity and Water Vodafone Qatar 0.0 Vodafone Qatar Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) QNB Group Mazaya Qatar Dlala Holding Investor Trading Percentage to Total Value Traded Net Traded Value by Nationality (QR Million) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 50.53% 7.68% 11.09% 30.70% 32.10% 7.52% 18.40% 41.97% (299) Non-Qatari Qatari 299 638 937 971 0% Buy Sell 672 Qatari Individuals Non-Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Non-Qatari Institutions (400) (200) - 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 Net Investment Total Sold Total Bought Page 3 of 6
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QSE INDEX Source: Bloomberg The QSE index rose 2.6% during the week to a level of 8,792.91. Index is edging towards the upper range of the corrective channel and is about to take support at 50 Day SMA level. In our assessment, the Index should rise toward the 9,000 mark in the coming sessions. Our weekly support level remains at the 8,000 mark. DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates between 0 to 100. The index is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, indicating that a correction is likely. On the other hand, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the index may be getting oversold and therefore likely to bounce back. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator The indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. The divergence or the convergence of the MACD line with the signal line indicates the strength in the momentum during the uptrend or downtrend, as the case may be. When the MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend. Candlestick chart A candlestick chart is a price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security. The body of the chart is portion between the open and close price, while the high and low intraday movements form the shadow. The candlestick may represent any time frame. We use a one-day candlestick chart (every candlestick represents one trading day) in our analysis. Doji candlestick pattern A Doji candlestick is formed when a security's open and close are practically equal. The pattern indicates indecisiveness, and based on preceding price actions and future confirmation, may indicate a bullish or bearish trend reversal. Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer candlestick patterns These candlestick patterns have a small real body (open price and close price are near to each other), and a long upper shadow (large intraday movement on the upside). The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a rally. The Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential bullish trend reversal. Page 4 of 6
Company Name Price % Change 5- (July 09) Day % Change YTD Market Cap. QR Million TTM P/E P/B Div. Yield Qatar National Bank 186.00 (2.62) (12.64) 130,150 11.9 2.3 4.0 Qatar Islamic Bank 106.90 (0.09) 4.60 25,260 15.3 2.4 4.0 Commercial Bank of Qatar 54.70 0.37 (12.16) 17,867 9.9 1.1 5.8 Doha Bank 53.00 0.00 (7.02) 13,694 9.9 1.3 7.5 Al Ahli Bank 47.85 (2.35) (3.60) 8,695 13.7 2.0 2.8 Qatar International Islamic Bank 78.60 (2.12) (3.79) 11,898 14.3 2.4 5.1 Masraf Al Rayan 45.70 (0.44) 3.39 34,275 16.5 3.2 3.8 Al Khaliji Bank 22.58 0.36 2.40 8,129 13.5 1.5 4.4 National Leasing 20.65 (1.62) 3.25 1,022 36.9 0.9 4.1 Dlala Holding 27.10 0.00 (18.95) 770 13.7 2.6 N/A Qatar & Oman Investment 15.90 (1.85) 3.25 501 16.3 1.5 5.0 Islamic Holding Group 135.90 (2.58) 9.16 544 32.8 9.1 2.2 Banking and Financial Services 252,803 Zad Holding 98.00 (1.11) 16.67 1,282 11.6 1.6 4.1 Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices 16.72 2.20 64.73 193 N/A 1.2 N/A Salam International Investment 14.00 0.07 (11.67) 1,600 20.0 1.0 4.3 Medicare Group 182.00 (1.94) 55.56 5,122 26.0 6.1 1.0 Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution 42.00 (3.23) 5.00 264 21.2 1.8 2.2 Qatar Fuel 169.50 (1.51) (17.03) 14,316 12.6 2.3 5.3 Qatar Meat and Livestock 60.80 (1.94) 0.66 1,094 20.3 4.2 4.1 Al Meera Consumer Goods 255.10 0.83 27.55 5,102 22.1 4.1 3.5 Consumer Goods and Services 28,974 Qatar Industrial Manufacturing 46.95 0.00 8.30 2,231 14.5 1.6 6.4 Qatar National Cement 120.00 (0.41) 0.00 6,481 15.6 2.6 3.0 Industries Qatar 134.90 (5.47) (19.70) 81,615 14.3 2.7 5.2 Qatari Investors Group 52.10 (3.52) 25.85 6,477 28.0 2.9 1.4 Qatar Electricity and Water 221.50 (2.81) 18.13 24,365 15.0 3.9 3.4 Mannai Corp. 110.90 (0.36) 1.74 5,059 9.3 2.5 5.4 Aamal 14.65 (2.33) 1.27 9,230 15.6 1.3 6.5 Gulf International Services 76.90 (3.15) (20.80) 14,291 9.1 4.1 7.2 Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding 24.01 (0.29) -18.6 30,164 20.9 2.3 4.6 Industrials 179,913 Qatar Insurance 98.50 1.55 25.03 18,185 18.5 3.2 2.2 Doha Insurance 25.20 (4.91) (13.10) 1,260 11.6 1.2 3.9 Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance 53.70 (4.11) 4.67 4,272 4.7 0.8 3.2 Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance 43.00 0.23 (2.66) 1,098 14.7 1.8 3.1 Qatar Islamic Insurance 81.90 (0.36) 3.67 1,229 14.6 4.3 4.9 Insurance 26,043 United Development 24.11 (2.98) 2.20 8,537 15.9 0.8 5.2 Barw a Real Estate 50.40 (3.82) 20.29 19,612 3.3 1.1 4.4 Ezdan Real Estate 17.50 (1.69) 17.29 46,419 33.8 1.6 2.3 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development 18.25 (2.82) 0.07 1,916 11.1 1.4 1.6 Real Estate 76,484 Qatar Telecom 85.30 0.12 (31.15) 27,323 15.6 1.3 4.7 Vodafone Qatar 16.30 (0.97) (0.91) 13,780 N/A 2.5 1.3 Telecoms 41,103 Qatar Navigation (Milaha) 96.00 (1.84) (3.52) 10,994 10.3 0.9 5.7 Gulf Warehousing 74.00 (1.99) 31.21 3,520 23.2 4.2 2.0 Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) 22.00 (0.90) (4.76) 12,320 13.4 4.2 5.5 Transportation 26,834 Qatar Exchange 632,154 Source: Bloomberg Page 5 of 6
Contacts Saugata Sarkar, CFA, CAIA Shahan Keushgerian Zaid al-nafoosi, CMT, CFTe Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa zaid.alnafoosi@qnbfs.com.qa Mohamed Abo Daff QNB Financial Services Co. W.L.L. Senior Research Analyst Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6589 PO Box 24025 mohd.abodaff@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services Co. W.L.L. ( QNBFS ) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (Q.P.S.C.). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange. Qatar National Bank (Q.P.S.C.) is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 6 of 6