MUMBAI MONITOR. Quarterly review: Growth picking up, inflation trending down. For Professional, Institutional and Accredited Investors only.

For Professional, Institutional and Accredited Investors only. Q4 2014 MUMBAI MONITOR Quarterly review and OutlOOk 1-2 lower commodity prices: a tailwind for the Indian economy 3 sector review: Telecommunication services in a secular consolidation process 4-6 india equity market: not just another BRIC in the wall 7 Quarterly review: Growth picking up, inflation trending down After a sharp rise in the second quarter of 2014, the MSCI India 10/40 index consolidated its gains with a 2.33% rise in USD terms over the quarter. This was marked by positive news regarding the reacceleration of growth and the continued easing of inflation. GDP growth surprised positively, having accelerated to 5.7% year-on-year (YoY) in the quarter ending June 2014, from 4.6% the previous quarter. This was the fastest pace in 10 quarters. The improvement in GDP was industry-led, rebounding to 4.2% from negative levels in the previous two quarters, thanks to strong export growth and a pick-up in both investment (at 7%) and government spending (at 8.8%) after the May general elections. Agriculture growth stood at 3.8%, reflecting the healthy winter harvest. The services sector, which represents 58% of GDP, improved modestly but remained below expectations at 6.8%. Meanwhile, inflation continued to decline thanks to a deceleration in both food and non-food inflation and a favourable base effect. From 7.3% in June, the headline CPI inflation decelerated to 6.5% in September. WPI inflation reduced even more significantly, decelerating to 2.4% in September, marking its lowest level since October 2009. After a very weak start, monsoons improved dramatically over the quarter, bringing down the cumulated rainfall deficit to only 12%, as at end of September. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) left all its key policy rates unchanged during the quarter, sticking to its objective of targeting inflation of 8% by January 2015 and 6% by January 2016. September 2014 saw the launch of the Make in India campaign, led by Narendra Modi, the Indian Prime Minister. The campaign focuses on job creation through growth in the manufacturing sector this would help increase purchasing power, thereby expanding the market for manufacturers. Lastly, Standard & Poor s (S&P), which lowered India s sovereign outlook to negative in April 2012, revised it up to stable while reaffirming the rating at BBB-. In its rationale, S&P noted that India s improved political setting offers a conducive environment for reform, which could boost growth prospects and improve fiscal management. Bloomberg is the source for all data in this article, as of end of September 2014. mumbai monitor

2 - Mumbai Monitor - BNP Paribas Investment Partners - Q4 2014 Quarterly outlook: towards a slow but healthy recovery As rates are kept high to reduce inflation, India is heading towards a slow but healthy recovery. While the RBI has so far kept its policy repo rate unchanged at 8%, it acknowledged improvements in the incoming inflation data and the recent decline in international crude oil prices. Furthermore, the monsoon season was less of a worry than initially feared, with a rainfall deficit of only 12%, as at end of September. The central bank thus acknowledges that there is a slight downside bias to its 8% forecast for January 2015. The RBI expects inflation, complemented by the base effect, to ease to around 6% by November, from its current position of 7.8%, before climbing back in Q1 2015. However, given the upside risks to the 6% inflation forecast for January 2016, it is clear that the Governor is unlikely to tinker with policy rates unless there is convincing evidence of a sustainable decline in inflation towards the official target. The recent sharp drop in commodity prices could benefit India a net commodity importer as it offsets inflationary pressures and reduces its current account and fiscal deficits. The earnings season started in October, with quarterly results expected to remain muted. While automotive, banking, consumer, health care, information technology and telecommunication services are likely to report more than 10% net-income growth, the energy and utility sectors are expected to report weak results. While earnings growth is predicted to reach 14% in the financial year ending March 2015 (FY15), it is expected to accelerate to 17% in FY16. In this context of mid-teens earnings growth, current market valuations, which stand at 14 times the price-earnings ratio of next year s MSCI India index, appear to be fair. Economic reforms should help to accelerate earnings growth in a few sectors in the short term. The government already announced some decisive measures to reform its energy policy in October, including the announcement of the full deregulation of the price of diesel, which will make the fiscal deficit less dependent on oil price fluctuations, lightening the subsidy burden. This came only a few days after significant central labour reforms were announced to follow up on the Make in India campaign, aimed at simplifying the red tape and dramatically improving the ease of doing business in India, in particular promoting manufacturing activity. Further evidence of declining inflation, fiscal consolidation and structural reforms may encourage the RBI to reduce policy rates in the medium term, which could lead to a re-rating of the market. In the meantime, superior earnings growth should be the key to stock price performance. do you see further upside for the indian equity market in the coming quarter? Share your thoughts now. Bloomberg is the source for all data in this article, as of end of September 2014.

3 - Mumbai Monitor - BNP Paribas Investment Partners - Q4 2014 lower commodity prices: a tailwind for the indian economy Like crude oil, the prices of many commodities have fallen by up to 25% since the beginning of the year and some are down by as much as 60% from their 10-year highs. Prices of hard commodities, agricultural products and energy have all declined, with the economic slowdown in China and Europe denting demand. The recent sharp drop in commodity prices could benefit India a net commodity importer as it offsets inflationary pressures and reduces its current account and fiscal deficits. declining commodity prices Sustained low commodity prices would be a significant boon for India, a country that imported a net USD 178 billion worth of commodities in the financial year, ending March 2014 (FY14). This amounts to 9.5% of GDP. While crude oil accounts for the largest part of commodities imported, India would also benefit from lower prices for industrial commodities, coal, and precious metals. iron ore, coal and crude oil have fallen by more than 20% in 2014 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 31/12/13 31/01/14 Source: Bloomberg, as of 14 October 2014. Re based at 100 on 31 December 2013. analysing the impact on the indian economy India being a net commodity importer, lower commodity prices in general, and cheaper oil in particular, should help to further improve its macroeconomic fundamentals as well as the earnings of companies in sectors with commodity-related costs. Lower prices could also ease inflationary pressures and help India in its efforts to reduce its current account and fiscal deficits. potential impact of a sustained usd 10/bbl fall in global crude oil prices variables 28/02/14 Aluminium Brent crude 31/03/14 30/04/14 Coal Copper unit 31/05/14 30/06/14 Iron ore Rubber baseline (fy15) 31/07/14 31/08/14 Steel Zinc 30/09/14 impact wpi inflation %YoY 4.9 Reduced by 50bp cpi inflation %YoY 7.3 Reduced by 50bp current account % of GDP -1.4 Improved by 0.5% of GDP fiscal balance % of GDP -4.1 Improved by 0.5% of GDP Gdp growth %YoY 6.0 Real growth raised by 10bp Source: Nomura Global Economics estimates, October 2014 inflation Lower oil prices affect 8.6% of the WPI basket (crude oil and fuels, excluding kerosene and LPG), with an additional 5% estimated to benefit from lower prices of crude derivatives. The impact on CPI inflation is less because this is based largely on a basket of food and non-tradable services. However, indirectly, lower oil prices could lower production and transportation costs, limiting food inflation. current account balance India imports more than 70% of its oil consumption, worth 5.5% of GDP. It is estimated that the current account balance improves by USD 1 billion for every USD 1 decline in the price of a barrel of oil. Thus, lower crude oil prices should benefit the current account balance. fiscal balance Historically, the government has subsidised petrol, diesel, LPG and kerosene. After several increases in diesel prices to reduce the subsidy burden, the government took advantage of the lower oil prices to announce the full deregulation of diesel prices on 18 October, a decisive measure to make the fiscal deficit less dependent on oil price fluctuations in the future. While subsidies should eventually apply only to LPG and kerosene, lower oil prices would still help to lighten the subsidy burden. Gdp growth The impact would be mostly indirect. Lower inflation should help to boost households real disposable income, fuelling demand for consumer discretionaries. Company profit margins could benefit from falling input costs, which would be an additional tailwind to reviving business investment. a tailwind for india s growth recovery India s fundamentals have already been improving significantly in the past year. CPI inflation fell to 6.5% in September, while WPI inflation hit a five-year low, at 2.4%. The current account deficit fell to 1.7% to GDP in FY14. Similarly, the fiscal deficit target for FY15 is 4.1%, down from a peak of 6.5% in FY10. In this improved environment, lower commodity prices may act as a tailwind helping to further lower inflation and promote growth. do you see india as one of the main beneficiaries of lower commodity prices? Share your thoughts with us now.

4 - Mumbai Monitor - BNP Paribas Investment Partners - Q4 2014 sector review: telecommunication services in a secular consolidation process Today, the Indian wireless telecom industry is one of the most competitive in the world. Burdened for many years with fierce competition between a dozen of competitors across the country, the industry presents a debt of USD 40 billion, compared to revenues of just USD 24 billion. The revenue per minute is the lowest in the world, standing at USD 0.6 cents, up from a low of USD 0.5 cents. As a comparison, revenue per minute in Africa stands at around ten times that of India, ranging from USD 4-6 cents. consolidation under way In this challenging context only the top-three players (Bharti Airtel, Vodafone and Idea Cellular) have been able to remain profitable, thanks to their bigger size and wider coverage, delivering positive returns on equity while most challengers incurred cash losses. Some players, such as STEL, Loop Telecom and Etisalat, have already exited the market, while others have reduced operations. For instance, Telenor reduced its footprint from 22 circles to just six circles. smaller players have already started to leave the market or reduce operations four key indicators to track the consolidation process The Indian telecom market is witnessing slow and secular consolidation in favour of the top three incumbents. Movement in four key indicators, namely; active subscribers (based on VLR visitor location register), MNP (mobile number portability), gross revenues and wireless broadband subscribers, points to a slow, secular consolidation of the Indian telecom market, in favour of the top three incumbents. This trend is likely to continue. active subscribers table 1: vlr (proxy for active subscribers) market share (%) stel reliance Jio Mts rcom tata tele loop telecom aug-12 feb-13 aug-13 feb-14 aug-14 vlr market share (%) change (bps) Bharti 24.4 24.9 24.8 25.0 25.0 61 Vodafone 19.7 20.0 20.1 20.1 20.2 49 aircel bharti, vodafone, idea cellular Mtnl Idea 15.5 16.5 16.7 17.3 17.8 226 top-3 59.6 61.4 61.7 62.4 62.9 337 RCOM 14.6 14.6 14.9 14.1 13.2 (136) hfcl videcon TTSL 6.9 6.5 5.9 5.5 5.5 (144) BSNL 7.6 7.7 7.5 7.2 7.0 (59) etisalat telenor bsnl Aircel 5.6 5.3 5.4 5.7 6.1 44 Uninor 3.6 2.8 3.0 3.4 3.6 (2) reduced operations exited Others 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.6 (40) Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: BNP Paribas Investment Partners, October 2014 This natural process of consolidation, in which weaker players progressively exit the market, should be further boosted by regulators, who are concerned by how fierce competition and low or negative profitability has led to low operator investment. While the 3G licenses were awarded seven years ago, 3G rollout has been slow and today only 5% of subscribers have 3G access. Source: TRAI, Koreak Institutional Equities, August 2014 Table 1 represents the movement in the market share of VLR (or active) subscribers, for key operators over the past two years (August 2012 to August 2014). Out of the total 105 million net additional VLR users during this timeframe, the top three operators (Bharti, Vodafone and Idea) captured 90 million, or 85%. This has taken their VLR subscribers market share up to 62.9% at the end of August 2014, up from 59.6% at the end of August 2012. Within the aforementioned group, Idea gained the maximum with a 226bp increase in VLR market share, while Bharti and Vodafone gained 61bp and 49bp VLR market share, respectively. Among the challengers, RCOM and TTSL were the key losers, while Aircel and Uninor gained on a footprint-adjusted basis.

5 - Mumbai Monitor - BNP Paribas Investment Partners - Q4 2014 Mobile number portability table 2: cumulative Mnp net gains/losses (in mn subs) revenue market share (rms) table 3: Gross revenue market share (%) dec-11 sept-12 sept-13 dec-13 Jun-14 Idea 2.1 3.7 6.8 8.1 9.5 Vodafone 1.4 3.3 4.5 6.7 7.5 Bharti (0.0) 3.8 4.9 4.0 3.6 top-3 3.4 10.8 16.1 18.8 20.6 RCOM (1.4) (4.3) (5.2) (6.0) (6.2) TTSL (1.0) (1.8) (3.2) (3.8) (4.5) BSNL (0.5) (0.8) (1.1) (1.3) (1.6) Aircel (0.1) (0.6) (1.2) (1.8) (2.3) Uninor (0.0) (1.7) (3.1) (3.3) (3.3) Others (0.3) (0.5) (1.1) (2.4) (2.5) Source: Media reports, loksabha.nic.in, Kotak Institutional Equities, June 2014 In terms of mobile number portability (MNP), incumbents have been the only gainers since MNP was introduced in India in mid-2010. India saw a gross 130 million port-ins/outs by the end of August 2014. On a net basis, Idea continues to be the biggest beneficiary, having gained a net 9.5 million subscribers from other operators at the end of June 2014. Vodafone and Bharti gained 7.5 million and 3.6 million net subscribers, respectively. Bharti s performance was weaker than Vodafone and Idea on this front. Among the big losers are RCOM and TTSL, having lost net 6.2 million and 4.5 million subscribers, respectively. While TTSL losses continue to be steady, RCOM s net losses have declined in the past year or so. rs bn Jun-12 dec-12 Jun-13 dec-13 Jun-14 Gr market share (%) change (bps) Bharti 30.1 30.4 30.8 30.5 31.1 93 Vodafone 22.6 22.5 23.3 23.0 23.2 65 Idea 15.0 14.8 16.2 16.1 17.1 209 top-3 67.7 67.7 70.3 69.6 71.3 367 RCOM 7.7 7.9 7.6 7.5 6.7 (97) TTSL 8.6 8.5 7.5 7.4 7.1 (150) BSNL 6.4 6.4 6.1 6.2 5.1 (133) Aircel 5.0 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.6 66 Uninor 2.5 2.2 1.7 2.1 2.3 (22) Others 2.1 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.8 (30) Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Note: (a) UASL revenues - includes wireline revenues for Bharti, RCOM, and TTSL; excludes the same for BSNL/MTNL. Source: Media reports, loksabha.nic. in, June 2014 Per the UASL (unified access service license) financial data published by the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI), the incumbents captured 89% of incremental industry revenues over the past two years (June 2012 to June 2014), taking their revenue market share up 370bp, from 67.7% in the June 2012 quarter, to 71.3% in June 2014. Once again Idea stands out, having gained 209bp RMS, while Bharti and Vodafone gained 93bp and 65bp RMS, respectively. Similar to VLR trends, Aircel and Uninor (on a footprint-adjusted basis) were the only challengers to gain, while RCOM, TTSL and BSNL all lost between 100bp and 150bp of market share.

6 - Mumbai Monitor - BNP Paribas Investment Partners - Q4 2014 data usage table 4: wireless broadband (>=512 kbps connections) subs dec-13 Jan-14 feb-14 Mar-14 apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 aug-14 wireless broadband subs (phones + dongles + tablets; 3G + evdo) Bharti 2.1 3.7 6.8 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 9.5 RCOM 1.4 3.3 4.5 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 7.5 Idea (0.0) 3.8 4.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.6 BSNL 3.4 10.8 16.1 18.8 18.8 18.8 18.8 18.8 20.6 Vodafone (1.4) (4.3) (5.2) (6.0) (6.0) (6.0) (6.0) (6.0) (6.2) Others (1.0) (1.8) (3.2) (3.8) (3.8) (3.8) (3.8) (3.8) (4.5) Total 40.3 42.0 42.8 45.6 46.4 50.0 53.4 55.3 58.8 Bharti + Vodafone + Idea (B+V+I) 20.6 22.0 23.2 25.2 26.2 28.9 32.5 34.5 37.5 (B+V+I) as % of total 51.0 52.4 54.3 55.3 56.4 57.7 60.7 62.3 63.8 (B+V+I) share of incremental (%) 85.7 145.3 71.1 116.0 75.5 104.0 107.4 86.2 Source: TRAI, August 2014 In a market where data is emerging as the key growth driver, trends in the wireless broadband (3G and EVDO; the latter is the 3G-equivalent, CDMA offering) sub metrics appear to be in favour of the incumbents. CDMA operators have been offering EVDO dongles for a long time and have therefore established a base of subscribers in that segment. This meant the combined wireless broadband subscriber share of the top-three was a lowly 51% at the end of December 2013 (when TRAI started publishing this data). In eight months through to August 2014, the wireless broadband subscriber share of the top three rose to 63.8%, as they captured 91% of incremental subscribers. contribution to wireless revenues 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Voice Revenue (RS) 8.4% 7.4% F2005 F2006 Data Revenues 84% 15.9% 27.4% 9.6% 3.2% 6.3% NoN Data Non-Voice Revenues 73% F2007 F2008 F2009 F2010 F2011 F2012 F2013 Non-Voice Revenues F2014 F2015E F2016E F2017E 95% 90% 24.2% 85% F2018E Source: Company Data, Morgan Stanley Research. E= Morgan Stanley Research estimates, October 2014. contributions to revenues 80% 75% 70% Stupendous growth in wireless data usage Data is the next growth leg for the wireless telecommunication services sector in India. Thanks to key drivers, such as mobile devices which capture 92% of internet access, data usage per subscriber among the lowest globally, smartphone handset prices declining sharply, and reasonable data pricing, wireless data usage is poised to experience a stupendous growth in the years to come. According to some estimates, data contribution to overall revenues is expected to more than double, from 10% today to 23% in the next two years. Over the next five years, data revenue could grow at a compound annual growth rate of no less than 40%, opening bright prospects for the Indian telecom industry. cagr f12-14 cagr f14-18e change bps % of wireless revenues wireless 8.4% 12.1% 370 F12 F18E voice 8.2% 8.1% (12) 85% 73% non-voice 9.5% 28.3% 1 885 14.4% 27.4% data 29.1% 41.2% 1 212 6.8% 24.2% non data other -10.9% -5.5% 540 7.8% 3.2% Source: Company Data. Morgan Stanley Research, October 2014. do you feel that prospects for the telecommunication sector are looking brighter due to the expected industry consolidation? Share your thoughts with us now.

7 - Mumbai Monitor - BNP Paribas Investment Partners - Q4 2014 india equity Market: not Just another bric in the wall As India s GDP growth is picking up, investors can rightfully wonder if growth will transfer into companies earnings and investor returns. In light of other emerging markets, and in particular the other BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) countries that India is often associated with, the Indian equity market appears to be uniquely structured to promote the conversion of economic growth into shareholder value. Market index weights - composition and comparison Sector Brazil russia india chinaw ENERGY 15% 57% 12% 14% MATERIALS 13% 10% 7% 3% INDUSTRIALS 5% 5% 6% industrials & commodity 33% 67% 24% 23% CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY 6% 7% 5% CONSUMER STAPLES 16% 8% 11% 5% HEALTH CARE 1% 10% 2% FINANCIALS 33% 16% 18% 36% INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 3% 23% 13% TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES 3% 7% 3% 12% UTILITIES 5% 1% 4% 4% services & consumers 67% 33% 76% 77% OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE Government owned - 62% 12% 70% private owned - 38% 88% 30% Source: RIMES, MSCI, October 2014. Sector weights each country s relevant MSCI index. a highly diversified market led by secular, consumer-oriented sectors The first striking characteristic of the Indian equity market is its high diversification, with the service and consumer sectors representing over three quarters of the index. As a comparison, the Russian market is dominated by industrials and commodities, representing two thirds of the index, with energy alone representing 57%. Consumer sectors in India benefit from the secular trend of rising domestic consumption in India, driven by the emergence of the middle class. world-class companies The Indian equity market includes world-class companies. Within information technology, Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services and Wipro are internationally known and are global leaders in IT services. Similarly, consumer staples include local subsidiaries of global leaders, such as Nestle or Unilever. While privatesector banks are operating exclusively in the local market, some offer very strong balance sheets and are run by world-class management teams, consistently gaining market share with earnings growth in excess of 20%. the dominance of the private sector Another key trait of the Indian equity market is the dominance of the private sector, which represents 88% of the index. Comparatively, the Chinese equity market is largely dominated by governmentowned companies (70% of the index), which, by nature, are less keen to distribute dividends and target shareholder value. converting economic growth into shareholder value This unique structure of the Indian market has historically translated into what some have called the India premium, which translates into relatively higher price-to-earnings multiples than its emerging market peers. As we have seen, the dominance of competitive private-sector companies, operating predominantly in the secular growth sectors of consumers and services, provides a good justification for that. On a sector-neutral basis, India actually appears neither cheaper nor more expensive than any other emerging market. Thanks to its unique features, the Indian equity market is favourably structured to help convert economic growth into shareholder value. do you believe that india s Gdp growth will transfer into companies earnings and investor returns? Email us your thoughts?

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