Global Economics & Markets Research Quek Ser Leang Quek.SerLeang@uobgroup.com Lee Sue Ann Lee.SueAnn@uobgroup.com Thursday, 20 August 2015 FX Insights Chart Of The Day GBP/USD: 1.5680 Early indication of an imminent break higher. While the daily closing yesterday was not strong enough to suggest the start of a sustained up-move, there are other indications that an imminent break higher is imminent. GBP has been trading within a range of less than 300 points since middle of July and such a prolonged consolidation phase normally resulted in a violent move. In other words, a clear move above the recent high near 1.5715/20 could lead to a rapid rise to 1.5790 where a break would open up the way for extension higher towards the year s peak near 1.5930. Overall, the outlook is positive but we prefer to wait for additional confirmation before turning bullish. Strong short-term support is at 1.5630 ahead of 1.5560.
Thursday, 20 August 2015 Page 2 OVERVIEW The dollar retreated as the keenly-awaited minutes from the July 28-29 meeting of the FOMC implied that rate hikes are on the horizon, but lacked a smoking gun that points to a rate hike in September specifically. The key line that markets seized on was that "most judged that the conditions for policy firming had not yet been achieved...". The minutes do note that "...conditions were approaching that point". The Treasury market rallied, essentially shrugging off inflation numbers that were quite near expectations, with the 10- year yield rallying 7bps and the 2-year 6bps. Scheduled Fed communications between now and the September FOMC will be crucial and include speeches by Williams (voting), Lockhart (voting), Rosengren (alternate) and Kocherlakota (nonvoting) plus the Jackson Hole symposium on 27-29 August at which the detailed agenda will only be released on the evening of its commencement but the broad theme is focused upon inflation. Fed Funds Rate: 0.0-0.25% Last Change: -0.75% in Dec 08 Next FOMC Meeting: 17-Sep-15 GDP QoQ: +0.6% in 1Q15 +2.3% in 2Q15 2Q15 Release (2nd estimate): 27-Aug-15 PCE Price Index YoY: +0.2% in May +0.3% in Jun Jul Release: 28-Aug-15 Core PCE Price Index YoY: +1.2% in May +1.3% in Jun Jul Release: 28-Aug-15 Unemployment: +5.3% in Jun +5.3% in Jul Aug Release: 04-Sep-15 Nonfarm payroll: +231k in Jun +215k in Jul Aug Release: 04-Sep-15 Retail Sales: +0.0% in Jun +0.6% in Jul Aug Release: 11-Sep-15 Retail Sales ex autos: +0.4% in Jun +0.4% in Jul Aug Release: 11-Sep-15 Durable Goods: -2.1% in May +3.4% in Jun Jul Release: 26-Aug-15 Durable Goods ex autos: -0.1% in May +0.8% in Jun Jul Release: 26-Aug-15 Housing Starts: +1204k in Jun +1206k in Jul Aug Release: 17-Sep-15 Case Shiller 20-City Index: +5.0% in Apr +4.9% in May Jun Release: 25-Aug-15 UoM Consumer Confidence: 93.1 in Jul 92.9 in Aug Sep Release: 11-Sep-15 UOB Fed Funds Rate Forecast: end 3Q15: 0.50% end 4Q15: 0.75% end 1Q16: 1.00% end 2Q16: 1.25%
Thursday, 20 August 2015 Page 3 USD/SGD: 1.4030 SGD moved in a choppy session but ended the session largely flat at 1.4032/USD late Wed, from 1.4038 on Tue, with the USD/SGD pair hitting low of 1.3959 in response to the US Fed FOMC minutes, the lowest since last Fri, from high of 1.4082 before the minutes release. This morning, the SGD NEER index moved higher at -0.53% from -0.63% below the midpoint, and the -0.5% to -1.5% range below the midpoint looks to remain for now, for an implied USD/SGD range of 1.3987 to 1.4125. USD unexpectedly dipped below 1.4000/05 and tested the major support at 1.3960. The subsequent swift recovery from the low has resulted in a mixed outlook for today. Expect further choppy trading but a break out of yesterday range of 1.3960/1.4081 appears unlikely. Neutral: Weakening momentum suggests that USD could stage a deeper pull-back. USD touched a high of 1.4081 before dropping quickly to test the strong support indicated at 1.3960 yesterday (exact overnight low of 1.3960). While we continue to hold a neutral view, weakening momentum suggests that USD could stage a deeper pull-back in the coming days. Barring a move above the strong 1.4080/10 resistance zone, a break below 1.3960 could lead to further selling towards the next support near 1.3915/20. At this stage, a sustained break below this level appears unlikely. S$NEER Last Change: Reduced the slope of the policy band (Jan 2015) Next MAS Meeting: Oct 15 (date yet to be announced) GDP YoY: +2.8% in 1Q15 +1.8% in 2Q15 3Q15 Release: 14-Oct-15 CPI YoY: -0.4% in May -0.3% in Jun Jul Release: 25-Aug-15 NODX: +4.5% in Jun -0.8% in Jul Aug Release: 17-Sep-15 Industrial Production: -1.7% in May -4.4% in Jun Jun Release: 26-Aug-15 UOB FX Forecast: end 3Q15: 1.45 end 4Q15: 1.43 end 1Q16: 1.45 end 2Q16: 1.46 UOB 3M SIBOR Forecast: end 3Q15: 1.25% end 4Q15: 1.15% end 1Q16: 1.22% end 2Q16: 1.27% UOB 3M SOR Forecast: end 3Q15: 1.35% end 4Q15: 1.25% end 1Q16: 1.30% end 2Q16: 1.35%
Thursday, 20 August 2015 Page 4 EUR/SGD: 1.5585 The strong 1.5450 support highlighted yesterday held as EUR surged to a high of 1.5623/28. While upward momentum is not very strong, the current up-move could extend higher to 1.5650. Only a move back below 1.5510 would indicate that the immediate upward pressure has eased. Bullish: EUR has to reclaimed 1.5650 before further sustained gains can be expected. While the stop-loss for our bullish view at 1.5450 remains intact, the rebound from the low is lacking in momentum and for further sustained gains, EUR has to break above the strong 1.5650 resistance ahead of the recent high near 1.5735. That said, only a break back below 1.5450 would indicate that the bullish phase has ended. GBP/SGD: 2.1980 The outlook for this pair still appears mixed. Expect further sideway trading, likely between 2.1900 and 2.2050. Bullish: Only a break above 2.2092/97 would indicate the next leg higher has started. The short-term consolidation appears incomplete and only a break above the recent high near 2.2092/97 would indicate that the next bullish leg higher has started (towards our target at 2.2200). We have moved the stoploss level higher to 2.1860 from 2.1800 previously. AUD/SGD: 1.0310 The strong rebound from the 1.0255/60 support suggests that the immediate downward pressure has eased. Most indicators are neutral and range trading is expected for today, likely between 1.0270 and 1.0340. Neutral: Expect sideway trading between 1.0200 and 1.0400 for another week or so. There is no change our neutral view as indicated in the Chart of the Day update yesterday. We continue to expect this pair to trade sideways for another week or so, likely between 1.0200 and 1.0400. JPY/SGD: 1.1305 JPY traded in a volatile manner yesterday; swinging between 1.1264 and 1.1348. The outlook is mixed for now but at this stage, a break above the 1.1345/50 high appears unlikely. That said, any down-move is expected to encounter solid support at 1.1260. Bullish: Break of 1.1240 is enough to indicate a short-term top is in place. Despite overall positive undertone, JPY has failed to make much headway over the last few days. While further JPY strength is not ruled out, a break below 1.1240 is enough to indicate that we have seen a short-term top. In other words, a break of 1.1240 would suggest last week s peak of 1.1360 is the extent of the current rally.
Thursday, 20 August 2015 Page 5 USD/MYR: 4.1000 MYR fell 0.2% to 4.0960/USD after Malaysia s CPI rose the fastest since August 2014. Headline inflation stepped up to 3.3% y/y in July (2.5% in June), above our and market estimates of 2.9%. On a m/m basis, CPI gained 0.8% (+0.6% in June). Year-to-date inflation averaged 1.7% y/y in January to July. We expect moderate inflation pressure for the rest of the year despite the weaker MYR amid falling commodity prices, receding spillover effects from GST, and weaker domestic demand. We forecast average inflation at 2.1% in 2015 and 2.7% in 2016 (vs. 3.1% in 2014). Separately, Malaysia reported total approved investments in the first half of 2015 at MYR113.5bn from MYR112bn in the same period in 2014, of which 81.1% was contributed by domestic investors. Bullish: Upward momentum beginning to show signs of slowing. The recent strong upward momentum is beginning to show signs of slowing down. However, only a break below 4.0100 would indicate that a short-term top in place. Otherwise, another leg higher to 4.1600 cannot be ruled out just yet even though the odds for such a move have decreased. Overnight Policy Rate: 3.25% Last Change: +0.25% in Jul 2014 Next BNM Meeting: 03-Sep-15 GDP YoY: +5.6% in 1Q15 +4.9% in 2Q15 3Q15 Release: 12-Nov-15 CPI YoY: +2.5% in Jun +3.3% in Jul Aug Release: 23-Sep-15 Trade Balance: +5.5b in May +7.98b in Jun Jul Release: 04-Sep-15 Export: -6.7% in May +5.0% in Jun Jul Release: 04-Sep-15 Import: -7.2% in May -1.5% in Jun Jul Release: 04-Sep-15 Industrial Production: +4.5% in May +4.3% in Jun Jul Release: 10-Sep-15 UOB FX Forecast: end 3Q15: 3.90 end 4Q15: 3.93 end 1Q16: 3.93 end 2Q16: 3.92 UOB Overnight Policy Rate Forecast: end 3Q15: 3.25% end 4Q15: 3.25% end 1Q16: 3.25% end 2Q16: 3.25% USD/THB: 35.52 THB moderated its decline to 0.1% to 35.569/USD on Wednesday, after hitting 35.663 earlier, the weakest since April 2009 as BoT Assistant Governor Mathee Supapongse said Thai tourism usually recovers quickly from incidents such as this week s deadly bombing in Bangkok, though the attack will have a short-term impact on the economy. Bullish: In a short-term consolidation phase now before moving higher at a later stage. USD tested the 35.65 resistance yesterday before pulling back quickly. The current movement is likely part of a shortterm consolidation phase that may last for a few days. As long as 35.35 is intact, we remain bullish USD and expect an eventual move higher to 35.78. 1-Day Repo Rate: 1.50% Last Change: -0.25% in Apr 2015 Next BOT Meeting: 16-Sep-15 GDP YoY: +3.0% in 1Q15 +2.8% in 2Q15 3Q15 Release: 17-Nov-15 CPI YoY: -1.07% in Jun -1.05% in Jul May Release: 01-Sep-15 UOB FX Forecast: end 3Q15: 35.5 end 4Q15: 35.5 end 1Q16: 35.8 end 2Q16: 36.0 UOB 1-Day Repo Rate Forecast: end 3Q15: 1.50% end 4Q15: 1.50% end 1Q16: 1.75% end 2Q16: 2.00%
Thursday, 20 August 2015 Page 6 USD/CNH: 6.4495 Onshore RMB fell a marginal 0.03% to close at 6.3955/USD on Wednesday, as the onshore exchange rates appeared to have stabilized after a tumultuous week. However, uncertainty over the possibility of further depreciation could see volatility remaining elevated in the FX market, which is also weighed down by the whipsaw in the equity market that saw the Shanghai Composite index falling as much as 5.1% on Wednesday before closing 1.2% higher on suspected buying from state funds. Offshore CNH was flat at 6.4367/USD late Wednesday, after rising 1.3% over the past four sessions. PBoC stepped up its liquidity injection with RMB110bn MLF on Wednesday, which was in addition to the large RMB120bn 7-day reverse repo on Tuesday, that could set the stage for a RRR cut ahead. After trading quietly for a few days, USD marched to an overnight high of 6.4644. While further up-move is not ruled out, patchy momentum suggests limited upside risk for now. From here, allow for a dip to 6.4420 but 6.4350 is expected to hold for a move to 6.4620. Bullish: Upward momentum is waning rapidly. Upward momentum is waning rapidly with the quick drop in the recent high volatility. However, the outlook still appears to be positive but the recent high near 6.5945 is clearly a high hurdle and this level would not be easy to break. On the downside, only a move back below 6.4000 would indicate that a temporary top is in place. Benchmark Deposit Rate: 2.00% Last Change: -0.25% in Jun 2015 Benchmark Lending Rate: 4.85% Last Change: -0.25% in Jun 2015 Reserve Requirement Ratio: 18.5% Last Change: -1.00% in Apr 2015 GDP YoY: +7.0% in 1Q15 +7.0% in 2Q15 3Q15 Release: 19-Oct-15 Caixin Manufacturing PMI: 49.4 in Jun 47.8 in Jul Aug Release: 21-Aug-15 exp: 47.7 NBS Manufacturing PMI: 50.2 in Jun 50.0 in Jul Jul Release: 01-Sep-15 PPI YoY: -4.8% in Jun -5.4% in Jul Aug Release: 09-Sep-15 CPI YoY: +1.4% in Jun +1.6% in Jul Aug Release: 09-Sep-15 Trade Balance: +46.54 in Jun +43.0b in Jul Aug Release: 08-Sep-15 Export: +2.8% in Jun -8.3% in Jul Aug Release: 08-Sep-15 Import: -6.1% in Jun -8.1% in Jul Aug Release: 08-Sep-15 UOB FX (USD/CNY) Forecast: end 3Q15: 6.40 end 4Q15: 6.45 end 1Q16: 6.48 end 2Q16: 6.53 UOB Benchmark Lending Rate Forecast: end 3Q15: 4.60% end 4Q15: 4.60% end 1Q16: 4.60% end 2Q16: 4.60%
Thursday, 20 August 2015 Page 7 EUR/USD: 1.1120 EUR initially fell ahead of the FOMC, but reversed to spike up to highs of 1.1134. The pair continues to climb this morning, reaching 1.1149. The European Stability Mechanism (ESM) s on late Wednesday officially approved the third bailout package for Greece and announced it had decided to unlock a part of the first aid tranche for the country. All European parliaments have now given the green light to the new, three-year programme of financial assistance for Greece, of up to EUR86bn, in time to meet the EUR3.2bn payment to the ECB on 20 August. But many elements of the agreement remain uncertain, and will have to be resolved before first programme review in the autumn can be completed. These include pension reform, bank recapitalization, privatizations and further debt relief to enable the IMF to take part in the programme. EUR rebounding from a higher level than expected and the current up-move appears to have scope to extend higher. From here, allow for a dip to 1.1080/85 but 1.1040 is expected to hold for a move to 1.1170. Neutral: Despite strong rebound, only break above 1.1215 would indicate the start of a fresh bullish phase. EUR rebounded strongly overnight but the up-move appears to be part of a broader consolidation phase. In other words, there is no change to our current neutral view and only a break above 1.1215 would indicate the start of a fresh bullish phase. INDICATORS Refinancing Rate: 0.05% Last Change: -0.10% in Sep 2014 Next ECB Meeting: 03-Sep-15 Deposit Rate: -0.2% Last Change: -0.10% in Sep 2014 Lending Rate: 0.3% Last Change: -0.10% in Sep 2014 GDP QoQ: +0.4% in 1Q15 +0.3% in 2Q15 2Q15 Release (2 nd est): 04-Sep-15 CPI YoY: +0.2% in Jun +0.2% in Jul Aug Release: 31-Aug-15 Unemployment: 11.1% in Jun 11.1% in Jul May Release: 01-Sep-15 UOB FX Forecast: end 3Q15: 1.09 end 4Q15: 1.10 end 1Q16: 1.12 end 2Q16: 1.12 UOB Refinancing Rate Forecast: end 3Q15: 0.05% end 4Q15: 0.05% end 1Q16: 0.05% end 2Q16: 0.05% GBP/USD: 1.5680 A relatively big day for the UK today with the release of retail sales, expected to bounce higher on the back of rising real earnings, increased consumer confidence and an improving labour market. Anything on or above expectations should see the GBP buyers back in again. In line with expectation, GBP dipped to 1.5640 (low of 1.5636) but the subsequent rebound fell short of the 1.5715/20 target. However, the up-move appears incomplete and as long as 1.5635/40 is not taken out, an attempt to 1.5715/20 appears likely. Neutral: Early indications of an imminent break higher [See Chart of the Day on page 1] Bank Rate: 0.50% Last Change: -0.50% in Mar 2009 Next BOE Meeting: 06-Aug-15 GDP QoQ: +0.4% in 1Q15 +0.7% in 2Q15 2Q15 Release (2 nd estimate): 28-Aug-15 CPI YoY: +0.0% in Jun 0.1% in Jul Aug Release: 15-Sep-15 Unemployment: 5.6% in May 5.6% in Jun Jul Release: 16-Sep-15 Services PMI: 58.5 in Jun 57.4 in Jul Aug Release: 03-Sep-15 UOB FX Forecast: end 3Q15: 1.60 end 4Q15: 1.62 end 1Q16: 1.64 end 2Q16: 1.67 UOB Bank Rate Forecast: end 3Q15: 0.5% end 4Q15: 0.5% end 1Q16: 0.5% end 2Q16: 0.75%
Thursday, 20 August 2015 Page 8 AUD/USD: 0.7355 AUD touched highs of 0.7373 earlier this morning following the latest FOMC minutes. The next couple of sessions look quiet domestically. Still, against an environment of monetary policy divergence, there is little to be positive in the currency. All eyes are still on Chinese equity markets as well. The support indicated at 0.7300 held as expected as AUD rebounded strongly from a low of 0.7312. While the immediate pressure is still on the upside, the up-move is likely part of a broad consolidation and not the start of a sustained up-move. From here, allow for a dip to 0.7330 but 0.7300 is expected to hold for a move to 0.7380. Neutral: Continue to expect 0.7250/0.7490 range for now. There is not much to add as AUD continues to trade mostly sideways for the past few days. In other words, we continue to expect 0.7250/0.7490 range for now. Cash Rate: 2.00% Last Change: -0.25% in May 2015 Next RBA Meeting: 01-Sep-15 GDP QoQ: +0.5% in 4Q14 +0.9% in 1Q15 2Q15 Release: 03-Sep-15 CPI YoY: +1.3% in 1Q15 +1.5% in 2Q15 2Q15 Release: 28-Oct-15 Unemployment: 6.1% in Jun 6.3% in Jul Jul Release: 11-Sep-15 Trade Balance: -2750m in May -2933m in Jun Jul Release: 03-Sep-15 Capex: -2.2% 4Q14-4.4% 1Q15 2Q15 Release: 27-Aug-15 UOB FX Forecast: end 3Q15: 0.75 end 4Q15: 0.74 end 1Q16: 0.74 end 2Q16: 0.73 UOB Cash Rate Forecast: end 3Q15: 2.00% end 4Q15: 2.00% end 1Q16: 2.00% end 2Q16: 2.00% NZD/USD: 0.6600 Gains in the NZD have been reversed as consumer confidence in New Zealand continues to wane this month. The ANZ consumer confidence index fell from 113.9 in July to 109.8 this month, its weakest level since mid-2012. This was not surprising given that unemployment is rising, dairy prices are barely recovering, and the weak NZD is making imported goods more expensive. NZD edged below the strong support at 0.6560 (low of 0.6550) before rebounding quickly. The up-move exceeded the recent peaks near 0.6600 and barring an unexpected move back below 0.6570, the current rally could extend to 0.6640 before a pull-back can be expected. Neutral: Likely in a broad 0.6470/0.6750 range for now. The outlook for the next couple of weeks is mixed. We are neutral now and expect a broad 0.6470/0.6750 range for now. Official Cash Rate: 3.00% Last Change: -0.25% in Jul 2015 Next RBNZ Meeting: 10-Sep-15 GDP QoQ: +0.8% in 4Q14 +0.2% in 1Q15 2Q15 Release: 17-Sep-15 CPI QoQ: -0.3% in 1Q15 +0.4% in 2Q15 3Q15 Release: 23-Oct-15 Unemployment: 5.8% in 1Q15 5.9% in 2Q15 3Q15 Release: 04-Nov-15 UOB FX Forecast: end 3Q15: 0.66 end 4Q15: 0.64 end 1Q16: 0.63 end 2Q16: 0.62 UOB Official Cash Rate Forecast: end 3Q15: 2.75% end 4Q15: 2.50% end 1Q16: 2.50% end 2Q16: 2.50%
Thursday, 20 August 2015 Page 9 USD/JPY: 123.90 Seen around the 123.90 region, USD/JPY has nose-dived today as Asian markets are seen trading with sizeable losses following the Fed s minutes. For now, we think the JPY is likely to be supported by increased demand for safe-haven an asset as risk off sentiment prevails. The unexpected break below 124.00 led to a sharp drop to an overnight low of 123.65/70. The up-move from the low appears to be a corrective recovery and unless there is a break above 124.25/30, another leg lower towards 123.50 is likely from here. Neutral: Expect 123.00/125.00 range for the next 1 to 2 weeks. We shifted to a neutral USD stance late last week and at this stage, there is no reason to expect this pair to embark on a strong directional move. Expected range for the next one week or so; 123.00/125.00. Overnight Call Rate: 0.0-0.1% Last Change: -0.20% in Dec 2008 Next BOJ Meeting: 15-Sep-15 GDP QoQ Annualized: +4.5% in 1Q15-1.6% in 2Q15 2Q15 Release (2 nd reading): 08-Sep-15 CPI Core YoY: +0.1% in May +0.1% in Jun Jul Release: 29-Aug-15 Industrial Production MoM: -2.1% in May +0.8% in Jun Jul Release: 29-Aug-15 Household Spending: +4.8% in May -2.0% in Jun Jul Release: 29-Aug-15 UOB FX forecast: end 3Q15: 126 end 4Q15: 127 end 1Q16: 129 end 2Q16: 130 UOB Overnight Call Rate Forecast: end 3Q15: 0.0-0.1% end 4Q15: 0.0-0.1% end 1Q16: 0.0-0.1% end 2Q16: 0.0-0.1% UOB FX and Interest Rate Outlook FX Outlook 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 Last updated: 19 Aug 15 Rates Outlook 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 EUR/USD 1.09 1.10 1.12 1.12 EU 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% GBP/USD 1.60 1.62 1.64 1.67 UK 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.75% AUD/USD 0.75 0.74 0.74 0.73 AU 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% USD/JPY 126 127 129 130 JP 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% USD/SGD 1.45 1.43 1.45 1.46 SG 1.25% 1.15% 1.22% 1.27% USD/MYR 3.90 3.93 3.93 3.90 MY 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% USD/THB 35.5 35.5 35.8 36.0 TH 1.50% 1.50% 1.75% 2.00% USD/CNY 6.40 6.45 6.48 6.53 CN 4.60% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% USD/IDR 13900 14000 14100 14100 ID 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% USD/PHP 43.0 42.0 42.0 41.0 PH 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% USD/INR 64.8 66.0 65.0 64.0 IN 7.25% 7.25% 7.25% 7.25% USD/TWD 31.4 31.8 32.0 31.7 TW 1.88% 1.88% 1.88% 1.88% USD/HKD 7.75 7.75 7.80 7.80 HK 0.75% 1.00% 1.25% 1.50% USD/KRW 1130 1140 1150 1130 KR 4.85% 4.85% 4.85% 4.85% US 0.5% 0.75% 1.00% 1.25%
Thursday, 20 August 2015 Page 10 20-Aug-15 FX Pairs Spot Outlook USD/SGD 1.4030 Neutral EUR/SGD 1.5585 Bullish GBP/SGD 2.1980 Bullish AUD/SGD 1.0310 Neutral JPY/SGD 1.1305 Bullish USD/MYR 4.1000 Bullish USD/THB 35.53 Bullish USD/CNH 6.4495 Bullish EUR/USD 1.1120 Neutral GBP/USD 1.5680 Neutral AUD/USD 0.7355 Neutral NZD/USD 0.6600 Neutral USD/JPY 123.90 Neutral Summary of Views Since Rate 13 Aug 15 1.3940 24 Jul 15 1.5035 12 Aug 15 2.1940 19 Aug 15 1.0305 11 Aug 15 1.1175 06 Jul 15 3.8040 19 Aug 15 35.57 27 Jul 15 6.2135 19 Aug 15 1.1030 13 Jul 15 1.5500 13Aug 15 0.7380 13 Aug 15 0.6615 13 Aug 15 124.25 Target Trailing-stop Support Resistance 1.5800 1.5740 2.2200 1.5450 1.5400 2.1800 2.1670 1.1390 1.1335 4.1600 4.0500 1.1240 1.1200 4.0100 3.9600 35.78 35.35 6.6000 6.3500 6.4000 6.3850 S1: 1.3960 S2: 1.3890 S1: 1.5450 S2: 1.5345 S1: 2.1860 S2: 2.1800 S1: 1.0255 S2: 1.0200 S1: 1.1240 S2: 1.1200 S1: 4.0500 S2: 4.0100 S1: 35.43 S2: 35.35 S1: 6.4300 S2: 6.4000 S1: 1.1015 S2: 1.0920 S1: 1.5630 S2: 1.5560 S1: 0.7300 S2: 0.7250 S1: 0.6510 S2: 0.6470 S1: 123.70 S2: 123.00 R1: 1.4110 R2: 1.4165 R1: 1.5565 R2: 1.5690 R1: 2.2100 R2: 2.2200 R1: 1.0365 R2: 1.0400 R1: 1.1360 R2: 1.1390 R1: 4.1600 R2: 4.2000 R1: 35.65 R2: 35.78 R1: 6.5100 R2: 6.5600 R1: 1.1215 R2: 1.1280 R1: 1.5720 R2: 1.5790 R1: 0.7440 R2: 0.7490 R1: 0.6670 R2: 0.6750 R1: 124.50 R2: 125.00 FX Pairs Ranges for 19-Aug-15 * Percentage difference between the closing price and the last price 1-period ago. ** Percentage difference between the closing price and the last price on 31-Dec-14. Performance* Open High Low Close 1-day 1-week 1-month YTD** USD/SGD 1.4035 1.4081 1.3960 1.4032-0.02% +0.32% +2.34% +5.82% EUR/SGD 1.5461 1.5613 1.5454 1.5598 +0.90% -0.02% +5.16% -2.71% GBP/SGD 2.1965 2.2030 2.1890 2.1998 +0.15% +0.75% +3.16% +6.57% AUD/SGD 1.0295 1.0328 1.0259 1.0306 +0.11% -0.07% +2.10% -4.80% JPY/SGD 1.1276 1.1348 1.1259 1.1330 +0.47% +0.63% +2.76% +2.33% USD/MYR 4.0791 4.1090 4.0700 4.1041 +0.61% +1.65% +7.80% +17.4% USD/THB 35.52 35.66 35.49 35.51-0.05% +0.68% +3.07% +7.93% USD/CNH 6.4409 6.4644 6.4352 6.4634 +0.35% +0.51% +4.00% +3.96% EUR/USD 1.1020 1.1134 1.1017 1.1117 +0.89% -0.34% +2.69% -8.10% GBP/USD 1.5660 1.5700 1.5636 1.5684 +0.14% +0.42% +0.79% +0.69% AUD/USD 0.7340 0.7376 0.7312 0.7347 +0.08% -0.43% -0.31% -9.95% NZD/USD 0.6600 0.6624 0.6550 0.6602 0% -0.28% +0.56% -15.3% USD/JPY 124.39 124.47 123.68 123.78-0.49% -0.33% -0.37% +3.42% Disclaimer: This analysis is based on information available to the public. Although the information contained herein is believed to be reliable, UOB Group makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness. Also, opinions and predictions contained herein reflect our opinion as of date of the analysis and are subject to change without notice. UOB Group may have positions in, and may effect transactions in, currencies and financial products mentioned herein. Prior to entering into any proposed transaction, without reliance upon UOB Group or its affiliates, the reader should determine, the economic risks and merits, as well as the legal, tax and accounting characterizations and consequences, of the transaction and that the reader is able to assume these risks. This document and its contents are proprietary information and products of UOB Group and may not be reproduced or otherwise.