Overview of Irish National Accounts Results in 2015 Presentation to Eurostat www.cso.ie
billion NIE 2015 Year-on-Year Growth Rates 260 240 Annual GDP & GNP Constant Prices 2006-2015 220 GDP + 26.3% (+7.8%) 200 GNP + 18.7% (+5.7%) 180 GDP 160 Previous provisional 140 annual estimate in 120 brackets 100 GNP
NIE 2015 Annual Revisions and Revision Policy Latest Revenue tax files Commodity flow estimates Structural Business Survey Data - CIP, ASI, Prodcom Insurance Statistics Methodology Changes Financial Services
Revisions due to inclusion of relocated companies Relocated companies - entire balance sheets relocated to Ireland Revisions not significantly related to inversions or redomiciled corporations - change of HQ Relocations recorded as reclassifications under other volume changes of Capital and Financial Balance Sheets www.cso.ie 4
Process leading to inclusion of enterprises in Irish data Identify Enterprise Determine Residency Engagement with Enterprise www.cso.ie 5
billion 1,200 Balance Sheet Impact Impact on Gross Capital Stocks (Incl. transactions and reclassifications) 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 *Preliminary figures
million 0 Balance Sheet Impact Intl Accounts Revisions to Ireland s Net International Investment Position -100,000-200,000-300,000-400,000-500,000-600,000 Net IIP, March 2016 Net IIP, July 2016
Increases in Stock of Capital Assets Increased Capital Assets Increased Production of Goods and Services Increased Depreciation Increased Profits
billion GDP, NDP and Changes in Depreciation 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2014 2015 NDP NIE2015 Deprec NIE2015
Annual Sector Growth by Share of GDP and Growth Rate - 2015 Agriculture + 10.4% Other Services + 5.8% Industry + 97.8% Dist. Transport Software & Comms + 7.7% Public Admin + 5.7% Construction + 7.1%
Change to Value added of Industry Production generally abroad for these entities contract manufacturing arrangements Economic ownership remaining with Irish entities ownership of Intellectual Property controlling production and distribution chains and sale to third parties / affiliates www.cso.ie 11
Trend in Value Added by Sector 2010 = 100 200 180 Industry 160 140 120 100 DTS&C Other Services 80 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Ind DTS&C Other Services
Annual Expenditure by Share of GDP and Growth Rate - 2015 Net Exports + 102.4% Gov. Consumption of Goods & Services + 1.1% Investment + 32.7% Personal Consumption of Goods & Services + 4.5%
2010 = 100 billion Trend in Net Exports 2010 = 100 v's Total Exports and Imports 250 350 200 280 150 210 100 140 50 70 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Exports Imports Net Exp TDD 0
Contribution of Domestic Demand and Net Exports to Annual GDP % 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0-5.0-10.0-15.0-20.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Net Exports Total Domestic Demand
Recording in Exports Imports Items produced on a contract manufacturing arrangement for these entities once sold are recorded as exports (Net) Imports are offset against gross exports Implications for the BOP and National Accounts if data was recorded gross. Recording of merchanting where appropriate www.cso.ie 16
million 60,000 Composition of Capital Formation 1997 2015 Constant prices - chain linked 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 B&C M&E Intangibles
million 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0-50,000-100,000 GDP, GNP and Net Factor Flows 2006 2015 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 GDP NFF GNP
Impact of relocations on GDP GNI transition BOP Entrepreneurial income is calculated after depreciation Impact of additional depreciation Year GDP Depreciation Net Factor Flows GNI NNI 2014 193,160 30,891-29,715 161,759 130,868 2015 255,815 61,558-53,173 200,762 139,204 Diff 62,655 30,667-23,458 39,003 8,336 Change 32.4% 24.1% 6.4% www.cso.ie 19
million Revisions to BOP Current Account 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0-5,000-10,000-15,000 Current Account Balance, March 2016 Current Account Balance, July 2016
CURRENT ACCOUNT AND BALANCE 200 150 100 50 Net Income outflow Services balance Merchandise surplus Current Account surplus 0-50 2014 2015 21
BOP Q1 2016 - Financial Account See BOP Tables 2b and 3 Direct Investment: Abroad increase In Ireland increase Portfolio Investment: Assets increase Liabilities increase Other Investment: Assets decrease Liabilities decrease 33,299m 17,079m 12,620m 15,599m 18,832m 12,612m Increases by non-ifsc enterprises of 18,878m and IFSC enterprises of 14,422m. Increases of 4,944m in Reinvested Earnings, 43,517m in Equity along with a decrease of 31,381m in Other Capital Increase of 221m in Equity assets and an increase of 12,399m in Debt Instrument assets Increase of 14,867m in Equity liabilities Decrease of 9,412m by IFSC enterprises along with a decrease of 9,419m by non- IFSC enterprises Decrease of 8,747m by IFSC enterprises along with a decrease of 3,865m by non- IFSC enterprises
Summary GDP: + 32.4% (current prices) GNI: Increase of 24% Increases focussed in Direct Investment Enterprises Impact of large additional depreciation charges - increase 30.7bn Relatively lower profit outflows to foreign owners GDP + 62.7bn Profit Outflows - 23.5bn Large addition to GNI + 39bn
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