Sensex (34761) / Nifty (10460) Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart Yesterday, our markets opened with a decent upside gap despite mixed global cues and in fact, the momentum got accelerated right from the word go. Subsequently, a sustained buying was being witnessed throughout the session to eventually conclude the session with whopping gains over one and half a percent. Technically speaking, index has been gyrating around its key support levels and since the overall market was so deeply oversold, a bounce back was very much on cards. Market set the platform in last two days by threatening traders to go long at lower levels and hence, conditions became conducive to give such kind of sharp relief move. This is what we had anticipated in our previous article that market is setting itself up for such kind of move. With yesterday s gigantic move, the ideal situation would have been to see the extension of this bounce back; but the kind of mayhem US markets saw last night, the SGX Nifty is now indicating a gap down with a massive cut. Hence, traders need to keep a close eye on how index behaves around the 10200 mark now. It s advisable to stay light on positions and traders should ideally refrain from creating fresh shorts after such a huge gap down. Key Levels Support 1 10280 Resistance 1 10400 Support 2 10200 Resistance 2 10460 Nifty Bank Outlook - (25322) After the recent sell-off in the banking space, it was a day of relief for the bulls as the Nifty Bank index rallied by 800 points yesterday. As we had mentioned in our yesterday's report, there was a formation of a 'Wedge' pattern in the index on the hourly chart. The index gave a breakout from the pattern in the first hour of the trade itself which led to an up move in stocks within the sector as well. Ideally, going with yesterday's momentum we should have seen the continuation of this pullback rally, however, looking at the deep cuts in global cues we are likely to see a huge gap down opening. Traders are hence advised to keep positions light as the volatility is likely to increase. As far as levels are concerned 24750-24500 are the support levels to watch out. Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart Key Levels Support 1 24750 Resistance 1 24960 Support 2 24500 Resistance 2 25060
Comments The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 1.64% Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by 28.27% as market closed at 10461.10 levels. The Nifty October future closed with a premium of 5.65 points against a premium of 13.35 points in last trading session. The November series closed at a premium of 55.40 points. The INDIA VIX has decreased from 19.75 to 17.90. At the same time, the PCR- of Nifty has increased from 1.11 to 1.16. Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost of carry are ADANIPOWER, HCC, REPCOHOME, RCOM and SUZLON. Nifty Vs Views FIIs were net sellers in cash market segment to the tune of Rs. 1096 crores. At the same time, they sold worth Rs. 1487 crores in index futures with rise in open interest, indicating fresh short formation in previous trading session. In options front, they bought of Rs. 1149 crores with marginal change in open interest. As far as Nifty options activities are considered, we hardly any saw fresh build-up in call options; however, decent unwinding took place in 10400-11000 strikes. On the flip side, 10400 put added some positions along with good amount of unwinding in 10500-10700 strikes. Maximum open interest for October series now stood at 11000 followed by 10800 call and 10000 followed by 10500 put options. Finally we saw some respite in market; index surpassed the hurdle around 10400 mark to conclude the session with 1.54% gains. Despite strong upmove, we hardly say any meaningful open interest addition in Nifty and at the same time the premiums too plunged from 13.35 to 5.65, which don t bode well for Bull s. However, huge long formation took place in case of banking index. As indicated by the global market, we may start today s session with a decent cut; hence, traders are advised to stay light in index and adopt stock specific approach. Gainers RAMCOCEM 1009600 15.67 601.95-0.58 REPCOHOME 587700 12.78 385.70 5.31 KSCL 1176000 11.52 507.60 5.67 JUSTDIAL 3059000 11.42 478.75 10.44 NBCC 22380000 10.03 54.95 4.44 NCC 48640000 8.73 73.70 5.71 SHREECEM 110200 8.46 15541.60-1.60 MFSL 2470800 8.31 379.05 1.00 Losers L&TFH 29632500-15.66 134.15 8.56 PEL 3232306-11.79 2400.65 10.89 ACC 1157200-11.39 1463.65-0.02 BALKRISIND 1984800-10.08 1041.50 5.88 VOLTAS 3555000-9.70 515.55 6.53 CHOLAFIN 906500-9.30 1165.05 8.47 BAJAJFINSV 697125-9.24 5961.50 9.49 EXIDEIND 5060000-8.40 256.70 5.79 Historical Volatility HV ADANIPOWER 137.87 BAJAJFINSV 59.42 ARVIND 65.20 SRTRANSFIN 87.96 ZEEL 44.80 Put-Call Ratio PCR- PCR-VOL NIFTY 1.16 0.80 BANKNIFTY 1.34 0.87 RELIANCE 0.48 0.62 ICICIBANK 0.65 0.54 INFY 0.82 0.74
FII Statistics for October 10, 2018 Turnover on October 10, 2018 Detail Buy Sell Net Contracts Open Interest Value (in Cr.) Change (%) 3932.18 5418.93 (1486.76) 289344 22881.91 7.33 146803.11 145654.49 1148.62 946339 77329.66 0.12 18542.87 16263.06 2279.82 1288255 84500.65 (0.65) 7009.78 7106.54 (96.76) 114659 7404.82 8.79 Instrument No. of Contracts Turnover ( in Cr. ) Change (%) 336613 29795.16 17.42 11009522 1057635.53 79.26 1023932 63051.75 9.44 653105 43762.33 9.46 Total 176287.94 174443.02 1844.92 2638597 192117.04 0.83 TOTAL 13023172 1194244.77 67.50 Nifty Spot = 10460.10 Bull-Call Spreads Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP Bear-Put Spreads Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP Buy 10400 179.45 Sell 10500 122.35 57.10 42.90 10457.10 Buy 10400 118.20 Sell 10300 87.55 30.65 69.35 10369.35 Buy 10400 179.45 Sell 10600 77.80 101.65 98.35 10501.65 Buy 10400 118.20 Sell 10200 65.10 53.10 146.90 10346.90 Buy 10500 122.35 Sell 10600 77.80 44.55 55.45 10544.55 Buy 10300 87.55 Sell 10200 65.10 22.45 77.55 10277.55 Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (October Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation. Nifty Put-Call Analysis
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2 ADANIPORTS 308 318 325 335 342 ASIANPAINT 1,156 1,191 1,216 1,251 1,276 AXISBANK 540 564 578 602 616 BAJAJ-AUTO 2,516 2,549 2,589 2,622 2,662 BAJFINANCE 2,020 2,145 2,226 2,351 2,431 BAJAJFINSV 5,218 5,590 5,802 6,174 6,386 BPCL 247 256 265 274 283 BHARTIARTL 275 285 294 305 314 INFRATEL 244 251 264 271 283 CIPLA 624 632 641 649 659 COALINDIA 267 270 273 276 280 DRREDDY 2,427 2,456 2,485 2,514 2,543 EICHERMOT 20,757 21,670 22,240 23,152 23,723 GAIL 326 331 336 341 346 GRASIM 884 897 906 919 928 HCLTECH 1,027 1,039 1,051 1,064 1,076 HDFCBANK 1,915 1,941 1,962 1,988 2,008 HDFC 1,689 1,713 1,741 1,764 1,792 HEROMOTOCO 2,855 2,887 2,941 2,973 3,026 HINDALCO 220 224 226 229 232 HINDPETRO 166 173 179 187 193 HINDUNILVR 1,468 1,498 1,520 1,550 1,573 IBULHSGFIN 927 953 971 996 1,015 ICICIBANK 297 309 316 327 334 IOC 119 121 125 127 131 INDUSINDBK 1,574 1,606 1,636 1,668 1,699 INFY 681 691 705 715 730 ITC 266 268 269 272 273 JSW STEEL 366 371 377 383 388 KOTAKBANK 1,098 1,118 1,132 1,152 1,167 LT 1,205 1,228 1,247 1,270 1,289 M&M 740 752 763 776 787 MARUTI 6,593 6,789 6,920 7,116 7,246 NTPC 159 162 164 167 169 ONGC 143 146 149 151 154 POWERGRID 185 186 187 189 190 RELIANCE 1,069 1,086 1,101 1,117 1,132 SBIN 254 266 273 286 293 SUNPHARMA 579 591 605 617 632 TCS 1,983 2,013 2,060 2,090 2,136 TATAMOTORS 182 186 188 191 194 TATASTEEL 567 575 582 590 596 TECHM 679 689 701 712 724 TITAN 719 754 775 810 831 ULTRACEMCO 3,673 3,726 3,777 3,830 3,881 UPL 597 610 617 630 637 VEDANTA 210 214 217 221 225 WIPRO 305 310 316 321 326 YESBANK 213 223 230 241 248 ZEEL 422 441 453 472 484
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