Panel Discussion on Shipping Finance Capital Markets Private Equity 1
Shipping Equities Within The Broader US Market Bloomberg Equity Universe (All Exchanges vs. US) World- Market Cap ($) US Listed - Market Cap ($) Market Universe 69,899 75.18T 13,320 34.08T Transportation 1,185 1.51T 139 497.99B Marine Shipping 332 196.68B 54 27.40B US Listed Market 98% 95% US Market Transportation Market in US Transportation Market in US Shipping Listed in US 2% 5% 54 $27.4B Shipping companies currently listed in the US Total Market Cap 2
Transportation Equities Within The Broader US Market Equity Universe World Market Cap ($) US Market Cap ($) Transportation 1,185 1.51T 139 497.99B Rail Freight 51 320.17B 11 192.86B Courier Services 32 253.08B 5 175.51B Transport Support Services 247 371.52B 10 6.18B Logistics Services 375 283.60B 23 37.00B Trucking 127 72.00B 21 51.35B Marine Shipping 332 196.68B 54 27.40B Air Freight 21 8.55B 4 3.12B 3
Transportation Equities Listed on Various Stock Exchanges Market Cap ($B) Marine Shipping All Exchanges 332 196.68B Denmark* 6 42.61 New York 54 27.40 Hong Kong 13 31.06 Shanghai 6 11.89 Tokyo 18 11.59 Norway 37 10.28 Others (Includes 57 exchanges) 187 57.63 *AP Mollar/Maersk holds 37.76B placing Denmark with the highest ranking Market Cap 4
Retail investors are becoming a major shareholder of shipping companies Market Cap ($) Float in ($) Float Held by Institutional Investors ($) 27.4B 19.3B 8.8B 10.5B Float Held by Retail Shareholders ($) 0% 54% 46% Institutional Investors Retail Investors *As of October 2017 5
Eighth City of London Biennial Meeting November 17-18, 2017 CURRENT SHIPPING MARKET TRENDS Overall favorable supply-demand in shipping is improving investor sentiment and now providing returns for shareholders. The containership market is improving with demand outpacing supply. World GDP growth forecasts, especially in emerging markets are trending upwards. The dry bulk segment and its low order book will continue to support its recovery. China will continue to drive demand. The LNG market is also improving with a significant rise in seaborne trade, driven by new export capacity and longer transport distance. Fleet growth projected to slow. Still waiting for tanker rates to improve but there are reasons to be optimistic. -- OPEC will start to increase production again which will help demand -- Global oil demand is growing seen from China and India -- Increasing amount of older tonnage will help supply Although earnings for product tankers have been below expectations, supply is slowing and global refinery capacity is growing. 6
INVESTOR SENTIMENT IN SHIPPING EQUITIES While US stock markets continue on all time highs, many shipping stocks have not performed as well. But shipping is attracting more investor interest lately dry bulk in particular Different sectors have different fundamentals & outlook and attract investors for different reasons Investors are more sophisticated now and differentiate among sectors The institutional investor universe following shipping is small compared to the overall investor universe Investment strategies of value, growth, yield etc. but momentum is key Today s market offers too many investment opportunities size & liquidity Passive investing and day trading are also on the rise (but limited to a few stocks) Sophisticated electronic program investors - when a stock moves past a technical operating metric, like the 50, 100 or 200 moving average, activity can be in the hands of short term or intraday traders who buy and sell the stock over and over again. 7
LOOKING AHEAD Need to expand investor universe by tapping into a wider audience of energy, commodity, oil & logistics investors etc. Also, take advantage of the vast individual investors community (in the US) In this context, need to undertake an industry/sector approach to educate & inform investors Shipping carries 90% of global trade and needs to position itself as part of the logistics/industrial chain versus a stand-alone industry Analyst and media community should also work towards this end 8