S&P 500 Industry Briefing: Materials Blue Angels October 19, 2018 Dr. Ed Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-497-5306 jabbott@ Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Materials: Blue Angels 3-9 October 19, 2018 / S&P 500 Industry Briefing: Materials Blue Angels www.
Materials: Blue Angels 500 425 350 2 Figure 1. S&P 500 MATERIALS INDEX, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION Materials Index Daily: Blue Angels Implied Price Index* Weekly: x18 x14 500 425 350 2 200 200 125 125 50 50 315 2 235 195 Figure 2. S&P 500 COMMODITY CHEMICALS INDEX, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION Commodity Chemicals Index Blue Angels Implied Price Index* x14 x11 315 2 235 195 155 x8 155 115 115 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Page 3 / October 19, 2018 / S&P 500 Industry Briefing: Materials Blue Angels www.
925 7 625 4 325 Figure 3. S&P 500 COPPER INDEX, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION Copper Index Materials: Blue Angels 925 7 625 4 325 1 1 x12 x8 x4 25 Implied price capped at $30 because forward earnings was negative during 2008-2009. 25 309 259 209 159 Figure 4. S&P 500 CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS INDEX, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION x15 309 259 209 159 109 109 59 59 Construction Materials Index 9 Implied price index capped to P/E of 20 due to very low forward earnings since 2009 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 9 Source: Standard & Poor s and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 4 / October 19, 2018 / S&P 500 Industry Briefing: Materials Blue Angels www.
Materials: Blue Angels 640 540 440 340 Figure 5. S&P 500 DIVERSIFIED CHEMICALS INDEX, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION Diversified Chemicals Index x14 640 540 440 340 240 x8 240 140 140 40 40 925 7 625 4 325 Figure 6. S&P 500 COPPER INDEX, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION Copper Index 925 7 625 4 325 1 1 x12 x8 x4 25 Implied price capped at $30 because forward earnings was negative during 2008-2009. 25 Page 5 / October 19, 2018 / S&P 500 Industry Briefing: Materials Blue Angels www.
42 35 28 21 14 Materials: Blue Angels Figure 7. S&P 500 FERTILIZER & AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS INDEX, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION x30 42 35 28 21 14 7 7 Fertilizer & Agricultural Chemicals Index 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 550 460 370 280 190 Figure 8. S&P 500 GOLD INDEX, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION Gold Index 550 460 370 280 190 100 x30 100 10 10 Page 6 / October 19, 2018 / S&P 500 Industry Briefing: Materials Blue Angels www.
Materials: Blue Angels 1570 1320 1070 820 Figure 9. S&P 500 INDUSTRIAL GASES INDEX, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION Industrial Gases Index Blue Angels Implied Price Index* x22 x16 1570 1320 1070 820 570 570 320 320 70 70 320 270 220 170 Figure 10. S&P 500 METAL & GLASS CONTAINERS INDEX, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION Metal & Glass Containers Index x18 x13 320 270 220 170 120 120 x8 70 70 20 20 Page 7 / October 19, 2018 / S&P 500 Industry Briefing: Materials Blue Angels www.
Materials: Blue Angels 650 550 450 350 Figure 11. S&P 500 PAPER PACKAGING INDEX, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION Paper Packaging Index x15 650 550 450 350 250 250 150 150 50 Implied price capped at $60 because forward earnings was very low or negative. 50 18 15 12 9 Figure 12. S&P 500 SPECIALTY CHEMICALS INDEX, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION Specialty Chemicals Index Blue Angels Implied Price Index* x25 x15 18 15 12 9 6 6 3 3 Spike and dip in Blue Angels formation during 2012-2013 due to several index changes. Page 8 / October 19, 2018 / S&P 500 Industry Briefing: Materials Blue Angels www.
1060 860 660 460 Figure 13. S&P 500 STEEL INDEX, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION Steel Index Materials: Blue Angels x25 1060 860 660 460 260 x15 260 60 x5 Implied price capped at $ due to very low or negative forward earnings. 60 Page 9 / October 19, 2018 / S&P 500 Industry Briefing: Materials Blue Angels www.
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