Macroeconomic Assessment 30 April
Source : Office of Agricultural Economics, calculated by Bank of Thailand Supply Side Policy Team Tel. 0 2283 6190 2 200 150 100 50 0 (%YoY) P = Preliminary Data H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar Nominal Farm Income p -5.6-0.5-10.1-4.7-13.5-12.6-7.4-19.0 Agricultural Production p 0.6 3.5-1.8 2.7-4.3-5.8-5.0-12.3 Agricultural Price -6.2-3.9-8.4-7.2-9.6-7.2-2.6-7.6 Index (2005 = 100) 250 Farm Income From Major Agricultural Products Nominal Farm Income Level (s.a.) %MoM, sa MoM growth (RHS) 25 15 5-5 -15-25 %YoY 30 15 0-15 -30 Change in Agricultural Price and Production Production Price
3 (%YOY) P = Preliminary data Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) Weight 2000 H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 p Feb Mar p Food & Beverages 15.5-2.6-4.1-0.8-1.9 0.2 5.5 9.2 2.0 Petroleum 10.4-6.3-2.4-9.8-11.0-8.6 10.8 14.7 10.1 Textiles 7.3-1.4-2.0-0.9-1.1-0.7-2.5-1.4-4.7 Apparels 7.1 3.3 2.6 3.8-0.3 8.4 7.6 9.2 3.2 HDD 7.2-1.7-2.8-0.6 2.5-3.8-8.2-1.9-12.9 IC & Semiconductors 6.8 11.2 8.5 13.7 19.8 7.8 7.3 7.0 3.1 Vehicles 5.4-22.5-27.6-16.4-22.6-9.4 1.5 3.0 1.2 Cement & Construction 4.8-4.1-3.5-4.7-4.5-4.9-3.9-2.6-4.7 Chemicals 4.4 2.7 1.8 3.6 1.3 6.0 1.2 2.8 2.9 Rubber & Plastic Products 4.0 2.4 4.2 0.6 2.1-0.9-1.1-1.8-2.5 Electrical Appliances 3.7-1.3-4.1 2.1-1.9 6.7-2.8-3.6-0.1 MPI 100.0-4.6-6.0-3.1-3.9-2.3 0.1 3.0-1.8 MPI (sa) % from last period 100.0 - - - -0.3 0.7 1.0 2.0-5.6 Source : Office of Industrial Economics and seasonally adjusted by Bank of Thailand Sectoral Analysis Team Tel. 0 2283 5650
4 Capacity Utilization and Capacity Index H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 p Feb Mar p CAPU (%) 60.5 60.7 60.3 60.5 60.1 62.1 61.2 63.6 CAPU sa (%) - - 60.0 60.5 61.5 62.4 59.7 Capacity index (end period) 181.5 181.4 181.5 181.5 181.5 181.5 181.5 181.5 % Index 80 250 75 level sa 3mma, sa Capacity index (RHS) 70 65 200 60 55 50 150 45 40 100 P = Preliminary data Source : Office of Industrial Economics and seasonally adjusted by Bank of Thailand Sectoral Analysis Team Tel. 0 2283 5650
(%) Weight 2000 Capacity Utilization H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 p Feb Mar p Food & Beverages 16.6 48.5 49.6 47.3 45.3 49.3 52.6 50.0 56.2 Petroleum 8.0 71.5 69.9 73.0 70.3 75.7 77.3 74.3 77.8 Textiles 10.2 41.8 41.4 42.1 42.4 41.9 40.7 39.3 42.4 Apparels 2.4 41.9 39.7 44.0 44.3 43.7 45.8 47.5 46.2 HDD 5.5 58.0 56.9 59.1 60.6 57.6 50.9 53.0 48.5 IC & Semiconductors 4.1 80.9 78.3 83.6 89.1 78.1 77.3 74.9 79.5 Vehicles 12.4 76.2 77.9 74.6 74.1 75.2 84.0 85.6 87.4 Cement & Construction 4.5 70.7 72.8 68.6 70.9 66.3 72.5 71.0 76.8 Chemicals 6.9 84.7 83.1 86.2 87.3 85.2 86.1 82.7 85.8 Rubbers & Plastics 6.9 62.7 63.6 61.8 62.6 61.1 65.3 63.1 67.4 Electrical Appliances 2.2 71.2 76.7 65.8 67.1 64.4 74.3 74.4 78.5 CAPU 100.0 60.5 60.7 60.3 60.5 60.1 62.1 61.2 63.6 CAPU sa 100.0 - - - 60.0 60.5 61.5 62.4 59.7 5 P = Preliminary data Source : Office of Industrial Economics and seasonally adjusted by Bank of Thailand Sectoral Analysis Team Tel. 0 2283 5650
Tourism 6 P P P H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar No. of tourists ( 000) 24,780 11,473 13,307 5,847 7,460 7,877 2,689 2,533 %YoY -6.7-12.2-1.2-10.1 7.0 23.5 29.6 25.5 Occupancy rate (%) 55.6 53.6 57.9 51.7 64.2 68.5 71.7 66.7 P = preliminary data No. of tourist ( 000) 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0-500 -1,000 No. of tourists Growth (RHS) %YoY 120 100 80 60 40 20 0-20 -40 Source : Department of Tourism BOP Analysis Team Tel. 0 2283 5636
P = Preliminary data Private Consumption Index (PCI) (Seasonally adjusted, 2010=100) H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 P Feb Mar P PCI 111.5 111.9 111.2 112.0 110.4 110.5 110.5 110.4 %YoY 0.3 0.2 0.3 1.0-0.4-1.9-2.8-1.9 %MoM, %QoQ - - - -0.7-1.4 0.1 0.1-0.1 7 Index 120 PCI %YOY (RHS) %YoY 12 115 8 110 105 4 0-4 100 Source : Bank of Thailand Macroeconomic Team Tel. 0 2283 5647-8
8 Private Consumption Indicators (% change from same period last year) %YoY H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 P Feb Mar P Non-durables index 0.5 0.0 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.3 Semi-durables index 0.8-0.1 1.7 0.7 2.6 3.0 5.8 2.0 Durables index -15.3-18.8-11.8-13.8-9.9-2.9-3.8-2.3 Services index 3.2 2.9 3.6 2.5 4.7 n.a. 8.3 n.a. Tourist expenditure -8.5-14.8-1.5-12.6 8.7 29.2 37.0 31.3 Note : P = Preliminary data Macroeconomic Team Tel. 0 2283 5647
Index (2010 = 100) 116 112 Private Investment Index (PII) (Seasonally adjusted, 3-month moving average) PII Index H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 P Feb Mar P PII 109.0 109.0 109.1 108.5 109.6 108.6 109.2 108.6 %YoY -2.2-3.0-1.3-2.6 0.0-0.5 0.3-0.5 %QoQ, %MoM - - - -0.3 1.0-0.9-0.2-0.5 %YoY (RHS) %YoY 40 30 20 9 108 104 Source : Bank of Thailand Note: P = Preliminary data Apr Oct Apr Oct 10 0-10 Macroeconomic Team Tel. 0-2283-5648
Construction Machinery & Equipment Macroeconomic Team Tel. 0-2283-5648 Private Investment Indicators (% change from the same period last year) 10 % YoY H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 P Feb Mar P Construction Area Permitted (9m ma) -4.7-6.1-3.4-6.6-0.1-0.2 E -0.2-1.7 E Construction Materials Index -1.7 0.8-4.2-4.9-3.4-3.8-2.8-2.1 Real Imports of Capital Goods Real Domestic Machinery Sales -2.0-4.2 0.3-1.1 1.6-0.9 11.6-5.6 3.3 2.8 3.8-6.4 15.3 n.a. 10.4 n.a. Car Sales (unit) -30.6-37.8-21.5-25.9-17.1-11.6-10.2-11.2 Note: P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data
Source : Bank of Thailand Economic Intelligence Team Tel.0 2283 5646 Business Sentiment Index 11 H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar BSI 48.0 47.1 49.0 49.2 48.8 50.3 49.4 52.4 Expected BSI 54.0 52.5 55.4 55.4 55.3 54.4 54.8 52.1 Index (Unchanged = 50) 60 Jun-15 = 52.1 50 40 Mar-15 = 52.4 30 BSI Expected BSI (next 3 months)
12 Government Revenue (by Collection Tax Base) Share FY Billion Baht P FY P Year Q4 Q1 Q2 Feb Mar 1. Tax 89.9 2,221 596 479 508 158 175 1.1 Income Tax 39.1 953 284 153 166 52 56 PIT 11.6 281 63 62 94 24 36 CIT 23.0 570 211 90 65 21 21 1.2 Consumption Tax 45.9 1,147 279 295 313 97 109 VAT 27.1 712 179 178 179 55 61 Excise Tax 16.8 383 86 102 121 38 43 1.3 Int l Trade 1/ 4.3 106 28 27 25 8 8 2. Non-tax 10.1 273 50 102 60 23 23 3. Total Revenue 100.0 2,494 645 581 568 181 198 4. Net Revenue - 2,074 525 507 466 150 157 P= Preliminary data 1/ Including Customs Refund Total Revenue Feb 15 = 181 Bn. (-0.8%) Mar 15 = 198 Bn. (12.9%) Source : Fiscal Policy Office Public Policy Team Tel. 0 2283 5628
13 Government Expenditure (by Economic classifications) Total Expense Feb 15 = 145 Bn. (-16.1%) Mar 15 = 249 Bn. (49.5%) Billion Baht Share FY P FY P Year Q4 Q1 Q2 Feb Mar 1.Expense 88.7 2,147 450 716 512 116 203 - Compensation of Employees 35.6 861 211 221 210 67 71 - Used of Goods and Services 16.8 438 124 155 108 30 47 - Interest 4.1 106 18 39 18 1 8 - Subsidy & Grants & Social Benefits 32.2 742 96 302 177 18 78 2. Acquisition of Nonfinancial Assets 11.3 249 83 75 97 29 45 Total Expense (1+2) 100.0 2,397 533 791 609 145 249 P= Preliminary data Note: Data have been revised in accordance with the Government Finance Statistics Manual year 2001. Source : Comptroller General s Department Public Policy Team Tel. 0 2283 5628
14 Feb = 17.1 Bn USD (-6.0 %YoY) %YoY P P P H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar Agriculture -1.3 0.1-2.7 4.4-8.5-15.2-17.8-6.5 Fishery 1.4-3.7 6.3 4.7 7.8-13.4-25.9-13.0 Manufacturing 0.1-1.8 2.0 0.9 3.1-2.5-2.9-3.0 Electronics 1.8-1.0 4.5 2.4 6.6-0.1-1.1-5.2 Automotive 0.1 0.7-0.5-3.9 3.3 4.9-1.5 5.9 Agro-manufacturing Products -2.5-6.5 1.8 1.8 1.8-3.5-8.3 2.2 Machinery & Equipment 8.5 8.9 8.2 7.8 8.6 3.8 2.3 4.0 Petroleum products -11.9-8.2-14.9-7.2-22.5-27.2-26.6-26.4 Petro-chemical Products 7.6 8.2 6.9 6.8 7.0-9.9-9.4-9.3 Electrical Appliances 4.5 4.6 4.3 0.1 8.8-0.6 1.0-1.0 Metal & Steel -11.2-21.9 2.3-0.9 5.9 4.7 2.6 9.0 Apparels and Textile Materials -0.3-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.2-6.2-9.0-4.2 Chemicals -6.0-7.3-4.5-1.9-7.2-23.5-20.8-27.0 Total -0.3-0.4-0.1-1.7 1.5-4.3-6.0-4.3 Source : Compiled from Customs Department s data. Export Growth (in terms of US$) Note: Data have been revised in accordance with the Sixth Edition of the Balance of Payment Manual and reclassified product groups by Bank of Thailand. P = Preliminary data Mar = 18.8 Bn USD (-4.3 %YoY) BOP Analysis Team Tel. 0 2283 6726
15 Feb = 14.5 Bn USD (1.6%YoY) Import Growth (in terms of US$) Mar = 15.3 Bn USD (-6.2%YoY) %YoY P P P H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar Consumer -1.7-5.9 2.6 1.1 4.0 6.3 18.5 5.4 Raw material & Intermediate -4.8-7.4-1.9 1.1-5.0-13.9-8.0-12.9 o/w Fuel -8.7-6.1-11.5 1.0-22.9-39.8-36.6-33.4 Capital -5.5-10.1-0.8 1.9-3.5-1.5 5.3-10.3 Others -39.8-52.0-22.7-23.0-22.3 23.2 47.3 44.6 o/w Automotive -27.5-32.2-21.8-27.9-15.1-6.3 7.6-8.8 Total -8.5-13.3-3.2-0.8-5.7-7.2 1.6-6.2 Note: *Other imports include imports of gold Data have been revised in accordance with the Sixth Edition of the Balance of Payment Manual and reclassified product groups by Bank of Thailand. P= Preliminary data Source : Compiled from Customs Department s data BOP Analysis Team Tel. 0 2283 6726
Balance of Payments Billion USD E E E H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar Trade balance 24.6 12.2 12.4 4.8 7.6 7.4 2.6 3.5 Exports (f.o.b.) 224.8 111.1 113.7 56.9 56.8 53.0 17.1 18.8 %YoY -0.3-0.4-0.1-1.7 1.5-4.3-6.0-4.3 Imports (f.o.b.) 200.2 98.9 101.3 52.2 49.1 45.6 14.5 15.3 %YoY -8.5-13.3-3.2-0.8-5.7-7.2 1.6-6.2 Services & Income -11.5-7.2-4.2-5.3 1.0 0.8 0.9-1.2 Current Account 13.1 4.9 8.2-0.5 8.7 8.2 3.5 2.2 Capital and Financial Account -14.5-5.9-8.6-1.7-6.9-4.0-1.0-0.2 Government 1.3-1.3 2.6 2.2 0.5-0.7-0.2 0.1 Central Bank -3.0 0.4-3.3-1.2-2.1-0.4-0.1-0.1 ODCs -5.3-0.9-4.4-1.4-2.9-2.7-0.8 1.0 Others -7.7-4.1-3.6-1.3-2.3-0.3 0.1-1.2 Net Error & Omissions 0.1-0.1 0.3 2.2-1.9-0.3-0.3-0.9 Overall Balance -1.2-1.1-0.1 0.0-0.2 4.0 2.2 1.1 Net Reserves 180.2 191.9 180.2 186.3 180.2 175.9 177.7 175.9 16 Note: Data have been revised in accordance with the Sixth Edition of the Balance of Payment Manual. E= Estimated data P= Preliminary data Source : Compiled by Bank of Thailand BOP Analysis Team Tel. 0 2283 6726
17 Net Services and Transfers Million USD 2,000 1,500 1,000 Net Services Income and Transfers Mar-15 = -1,242 500 0-500 -1,000-1,500-2,000-2,500-3,000-3,500 Net Services Income and Transfer (sa) Source : Bank of Thailand BOP Analysis Team Tel. 0 2283 5636
Net Financial Flows Millions of USD E E E H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar 1.Government 1,332-1,282 2,614 2,158 456-701 -187 95 2.Central Bank -2,956 354-3,310-1,179-2,131-367 -104-123 3.ODC* -5,279-920 -4,359-1,433-2,927-2,661-827 997 o/w Foreign Portfolio -1,978-1,127-851 473-1,324-1,027-48 -71 o/w Foreign Loan -4,683-756 -3,927-3,419-507 -2,797-2,672 385 o/w Thai Portfolio 616 718-103 -95-7 1 119-55 o/w Deposits Abroad -80-483 403 700-297 -1,456 887 516 o/w Thai loans -1,991-921 -1,070 559-1,629-52 617-375 4.Other Sectors -7,661-4,064-3,597-1,274-2,323-267 125-1,154 o/w FDI 11,465 5,316 6,150 3,167 2,983 3,080 1,208 633 o/w Foreign Portfolio -2,099 1,133-3,233-1,701-1,532-228 -39 440 o/w Foreign Loan 1,067-90 1,157 801 356 201 194-410 o/w Foreign Trade Credit 106 703-598 52-649 -676-382 -138 o/w TDI -7,547-2,477-5,070-1,786-3,284-2,384-848 -1,855 o/w Thai Portfolio -6,610-5,343-1,267-1,507 240-982 -341-142 o/w Thai Trade Credits -1,091 207-1,298 505-1,804-93 -242-239 Total Financial Flows -14,564-5,912-8,651-1,727-6,925-3,995-992 -184 E =Estimated data P=Preliminary data Note: Data have been revised in accordance with the Sixth Edition of the Balance of Payment Manual. *ODC comprises Commercial Banks, Finance Companies, SFIs and Cooperatives Source : Bank of Thailand 18 BOP Analysis Team Tel. 0 2283 6726
External Debt Outstanding 19 Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent roundings. * including BOT bonds held by non-residents and SDRs allocations by IMF Data have been revised in accordance with the Sixth Edition of the Balance of Payment Manual (BPM6). E =Estimated data by Statistic and Information Systems Department and Monetary Policy Group P=Preliminary data Source : Bank of Thailand Billions of USD P P Change Mar/Feb15 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Feb Mar Total 1. General government 19.7 19.2 21.6 22.1 22.2 22.5 0.3 2. Central Bank * 5.1 5.4 4.7 3.2 2.9 2.8-0.1 3. Other Depository Corporations (ODC) 37.5 39.0 35.5 35.0 31.9 32.7 0.8 4. Other Sectors 77.7 81.2 81.6 80.5 80.7 79.7-1.0 - Other Financial Corporations 14.7 14.7 15.4 15.6 16.3 16.0-0.3 - Non Financial Corporations 63.0 66.5 66.2 64.8 64.4 63.7-0.7 O/W Foreign Trade Credit 23.0 24.0 24.5 23.9 23.1 22.5-0.6 5. Total 140.0 144.8 143.4 140.7 137.7 137.7 0.0 Short-term (%) 42.7 43.1 41.4 40.2 39.2 39.3 Long-term (%) 57.3 56.9 58.6 59.8 60.8 60.7 BOP Analysis Team Tel. 0 2283 6726
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Feb-15 Mar-15 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Feb-15 Mar-15 Million USD 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0-2,000-4,000 Mar CA = 2,223 Bn. USD Trade balance Services Current account Current Account External Stability NEER vs Exchange Rate Billion USD External Debt Reserves/Short-term debt 150 110 70 30-10 Public Others ODC Mar 137.7 Note : Data on the Balance of Payment have been revised in accordance with the sixth edition of the balance of payments manual. NEER and REER have been revised since uary 2012 Source : Bank of Thailand BOP Analysis Team Tel. 0 2283 6726 Index 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 NEER Mar 2.9 20 Baht per USD 34 Mar 15 32.54 33 Mar 15 112.81 Baht per US Dollar (RHS) 32 31 30 29
Internal Stability 21 %YoY 4 3 2 1 0-1 Inflation Mar - 15 1.31-0.57 %YoY H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar Headline 1.89 2.23 1.56 2.00 1.11-0.50-0.52-0.57 Core 1.59 1.45 1.72 1.79 1.65 1.47 1.45 1.31 PPI 0.1 1.4-1.1 0.1-2.2-5.1-4.9-5.0 Source: Ministry of Commerce % 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Unemployment 2555 2556 2557 2558 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Note: Data from 2557 onward are based on New Population Projections for Thailand 2553-2583 Source: Labor Force Survey, NSO Q1* Q2* Q3* Q4* Q1* Feb* Mar* Unemployment 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.0 Source: Labor Force Survey, National Statistical Office Note: * Based on New Population Projections for Thailand 2010-2040
02--13 01-Feb-13 03-Mar-13 02-Apr-13 02-May-13 01-Jun-13 01--13 31--13 30-Aug-13 29-Sep-13 29-Oct-13 28-Nov-13 28-Dec-13 27--14 26-Feb-14 28-Mar-14 27-Apr-14 27-May-14 26-Jun-14 26--14 25-Aug-14 24-Sep-14 24-Oct-14 23-Nov-14 23-Dec-14 22--15 21-Feb-15 23-Mar-15 22-Apr-15 22 % 3.00 2.75 Money Market Rates Policy rate O/N Interbank 1M bill 1M BIBOR 2.50 2.25 2.00 1.75 1.50 1.25 As of 29 Apr 1.82 1.57 1.50 1.48 Source: Bank of Thailand and The Thai Bond Market Association (ThaiBMA) Monetary Policy Strategy Team 1 Tel. 0 2283 6186
23 Other Depository Corporations Deposits and Private Credits % YoY 20 15 Private Credits 10 5 0 Deposits + B/E -09-09 -10-10 -11-11 -12-12 -13-13 -14-14 -15 Mar P 5.0 (15,504.8) 5.4 (16,808.2) Change from end of previous period (billion baht) 2012 Q1 D Deposits + B/E 1,461.1 1,107.7 637.7 186.2-162.0 45.7 567.8 406.2 143.5 102.6 160.1 D Private credits 1,771.7 1,329.9 654.5 73.5 130.3 120.2 338.1 153.9-9.3 80.2 83.0 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar Note: * Depository Corporations comprise Domestically Registered Commercial Banks, Branches of Foreign Banks, International Banking Facilities, Finance Companies, Specialized Banks, Thrift and Credit Cooperatives, and Money Market Mutual Funds. P เป นข อม ลเบ องต นและอาจม การเปล ยนแปลงในเด อนถ ดไป Source: Bank of Thailand Monetary Policy Strategy Team 1 Tel. 0 2283 6186
Net private credits extended by ODCs (seasonally adjusted) MoM Change (Billion Baht) 24 100 Household credits Business credits 50 0-50 -100 Mar Apr May Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Mar Note: * = Preliminary Data Source: Bank of Thailand Monetary Policy Strategy Team 1 Tel. 0 2283 6186
25 Commercial Banks Interest Rates* End-month Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 29 Apr 15 12-month deposit rate Average of 4 largest banks** 2.23 1.74 1.73 1.73 1.73 1.73 1.73 1.53 1.53 Average of other banks 2.61 2.35 2.22 2.19 2.22 2.16 2.14 1.93 1.90 MLR Average of 4 largest banks 6.84 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.63 6.63 Average of other banks 7.62 7.53 7.51 7.45 7.44 7.44 7.44 7.37 7.34 Note: * Average of all commercial banks at end-period ** 4 largest banks include Bangkok Bank, Krung Thai Bank, Kasikorn Bank, and Siam Commercial Bank Source: Bank of Thailand Monetary Policy Strategy Team 1 Tel. 0 2283 6186
26 % 99 98 97 96 95 94 93 92 91 90 Loan-to-Deposit Ratio of Banking System (Adjusted for B/E)* -13 Apr-13-13 Oct-13-14 Apr-14-14 Oct-14-15 Note: * Comprised of Domestically Registered Commercial Banks and Branches of Foreign Banks P = Preliminary Data Mar P 94.5 Source: Bank of Thailand Monetary Policy Strategy Team 1 Tel. 0 2283 6186