Content Includes: Asset Flows The hedge fund industry saw inflows of $71.5bn during the course of 2015. Preqin Special Report: Hedge Fund Manager Outlook February 2016 New Fund Launches Equity strategies fund launches are planned by a large proportion of fund managers. Challenges and Opportunities Transparency, performance and volatility are expected to be key drivers of change in 2016. Fund Closures Over half of managers believe there will be more fund closures in 2016 than in 2015. Outlook Despite concerns, fund managers remain optimistic for the year ahead. alternative assets. intelligent data.
Preqin Special Report: Hedge Fund Manager Outlook Download the data pack: Foreword 2015 proved a challenging year for the hedge fund industry. Although the year started well, with hedge funds making gains in each of the fi rst fi ve months of 2015, a series of events across the globe hit many of the markets traded by hedge funds. This resulted in four months of losses from June to September, the longest losing streak for hedge funds since 2008. By the end of 2015, hedge funds had returned just 2.02%, representing the Preqin All- Hedge Fund benchmark s worst performance since 2011. Although the benchmark outperformed the S&P 500 over the year, this poor performance did not go unnoticed by investors: approximately a third of institutional investors reported to Preqin that hedge funds had failed to meet expectations in 2015. Many fund managers themselves were disappointed with performance in 2015: 44% of fund managers reported that their funds had failed to meet return objectives in 2015. However, amid the performance diffi culties of 2015 there were some bright spots; in particular, the industry recorded net capital infl ows of $71.5bn, taking the size of the hedge fund industry to nearly $3.2tn. More Challenges Ahead in 2016, as Well as Opportunities With 2015 behind us, what does 2016 hold for the hedge fund industry? Fund managers and investors agree that performance will be the leading challenge for the hedge fund industry in 2016, so perhaps performance will be the key to the success of the industry over the year. If hedge funds can navigate the changeable economic environment and continue to show better performance in times when traditional markets are struggling, then maybe the value of hedge funds can be proved to those investors that are currently taking a cautious approach to the asset class. The cost of running a successful hedge fund has increased over recent years as fund managers have invested in improving their business infrastructure to cope with an increasingly sophisticated client base and to adapt to new regulations. There are calls to cut fees further from investors, which could make it more diffi cult to run a profi table business in 2016 in particular for smaller managers. Although further investment in their business operations is diffi cult in light of calls for reduced fees, it could be vital to the success of a hedge fund in 2016. Investors are seeking improvements in performance; therefore the 41% of fund managers looking to beef up their portfolio management capabilities may be better placed to navigate the volatile environment in 2016 and win back investor favour. Originally a product used exclusively by wealthy individuals and families, institutional investors began to increasingly use hedge funds in the early 2000s. Today, Preqin tracks over 5,000 institutions that invest in hedge funds, with this number growing on a daily basis. Despite some notable investors cutting hedge funds from their portfolios over the past few years CalPERS, PFZW and Railpen to name a few the majority of institutional investors look set to remain active in hedge funds over the longer term. However, hedge fund managers have also reported that sources of private wealth family offi ces and wealth managers are once again increasing their allocations to their funds. With changes to regulations allowing the proliferation of alternative structures in hedge funds, such as UCITS in Europe and alternative mutual funds in the US, fund managers have also reported growth in assets from retail clients. As the universe of investors active in hedge funds becomes increasingly diverse, the hedge fund managers with products that can appeal to a variety of investors may be rewarded with a growing asset base. In November 2015, Preqin interviewed more than 350 fund managers globally to fi nd out more about their outlook on the hedge fund industry for the year ahead. In this report, we examine some of the key results of these interviews and take a closer look at fund fl ows in 2015, fund managers appetite for new fund launches in 2016, the possibility of fund closures in 2016 and the key challenges and opportunities for the asset class in the year ahead. Contents Overview of the Hedge Fund Management Industry 3 Asset Flows in 2015 4 New Fund Launches in 2016 5 Challenges and Opportunities for 2016 7 Fund Closures in 2016 8 Outlook for 2016 9 All rights reserved. The entire contents of Preqin Special Report: Hedge Fund Manager Outlook, February 2016 are the Copyright of Preqin Ltd. No part of this publication or any information contained in it may be copied, transmitted by any electronic means, or stored in any electronic or other data storage medium, or printed or published in any document, report or publication, without the express prior written approval of Preqin Ltd. The information presented in Preqin Special Report: Hedge Fund Manager Outlook, February 2016 is for information purposes only and does not constitute and should not be construed as a solicitation or other offer, or recommendation to acquire or dispose of any investment or to engage in any other transaction, or as advice of any nature whatsoever. If the reader seeks advice rather than information then he should seek an independent fi nancial advisor and hereby agrees that he will not hold Preqin Ltd. responsible in law or equity for any decisions of whatever nature the reader makes or refrains from making following its use of Preqin Special Report: Hedge Fund Manager Outlook, February 2016. While reasonable efforts have been made to obtain information from sources that are believed to be accurate, and to confi rm the accuracy of such information wherever possible, Preqin Ltd. does not make any representation or warranty that the information or opinions contained in Preqin Special Report: Hedge Fund Manager Outlook, February 2016 are accurate, reliable, up-to-date or complete. Although every reasonable effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of this publication Preqin Ltd. does not accept any responsibility for any errors or omissions within Preqin Special Report: Hedge Fund Manager Outlook, February 2016 or for any expense or other loss alleged to have arisen in any way with a reader s use of this publication. 2 2016 Preqin Ltd. / www.preqin.com
Download the data pack: Preqin Special Report: Hedge Fund Manager Outlook Overview of the Hedge Fund Management Industry Over the course of 2015 the hedge fund industry continued to grow, with infl ows of more than $71bn, leading the total assets of all hedge funds globally to reach almost $3.2tn. Although North America-based funds saw the largest infl ows in dollar terms, the growth in size of the European fund sector was the largest in terms of percentage increase. Despite a diffi cult returns environment, fund managers continued to see new opportunities in 2015 with the number of launches eclipsing the number of funds closing. Key Facts about Hedge Funds 15,438 $3.197tn The size of the hedge fund industry (as of 30 November 2015). 6,020 Number of active hedge fund managers globally. Number of active hedge funds globally. Source: Preqin Hedge Fund Analyst 259 Number of Fund Closures 71 50 33 77 84 67 Equity Macro Event Driven Credit Relative Value Managed Futures/CTA Multi-Strategy Number of Fund Launches 61 77 78 62 67 72 332 6 Niche 2 Source: Preqin Hedge Fund Analyst Breakdown of Hedge Fund Assets by Region North America $2,314bn Europe $685bn Asia- Pacific $159bn Rest of World $39bn Source: Preqin Hedge Fund Analyst 2016 Preqin Ltd. / www.preqin.com 3
Preqin Special Report: Hedge Fund Manager Outlook Download the data pack: Asset Flows in 2015 2015 could be described as a year of two halves for the hedge fund industry. The fi rst half of 2015 was largely prosperous and returns were healthy, but macroeconomic events in the second half caused a reversal of fortunes and the performance of the sector was stymied. Despite a diffi cult return environment in the second half of the year, assets under management (AUM) within the hedge fund industry added $71.5bn in fresh capital (Fig.1) over the course of 2015 and, as Fig. 2 shows, 59% of fund managers reported their asset base increased over the year. However, this is a smaller proportion than for fund managers that reported the same over 2014, when 70% saw an increase in assets and just 9% reported a decrease in AUM. In comparison, almost a quarter (23%) of fund managers reported a decrease in assets during 2015. Thirty-seven percent of fund managers reported receiving more capital from institutional investors compared to the previous year. Just 9% of managers said the amount of institutional capital they received had decreased in 2015. Hedge fund managers also reported they had witnessed increased infl ows from private wealth groups and high-networth individuals over the course of 2015 (Fig. 3). In fact, more fund managers reported increased infl ows from this group than reported increases from institutional investors. Fifty-six percent of fund managers reported seeing an increase in the amount of capital coming from family offi ces and 53% of fund managers saw improved infl ows from high-net-worth individuals in 2015 compared to 2014. At the end of 2014 we estimated that around 62% of hedge fund assets came from institutional investors; this fi gure has dropped to 60% in 2015 as private wealth groups increased their hedge fund allocations at a faster rate than their institutional counterparts. Fig. 1: Quarterly Asset Flows by Strategy Strategy Q1 2015 Asset Flows ($bn) Q2 2015 Asset Flows ($bn) Q3 2015 Asset Flows ($bn) Q4 2015 Asset Flows ($bn)* 2015 Total ($bn) Equity 29.6 28.8-1.7 0.4 57.1 Multi-Strategy 12.2 5.2 7.8 1.3 26.5 CTAs 11.3-4.8 16.7 2.2 25.4 Credit -3.7 15.1-2.0-5.7 3.6 Event Driven -1.6 12.3-1.8-7.3 1.7 Niche -0.1-0.6 1.4 0.5 1.1 Relative Value -15.3 5.6-5.3-3.2-18.3 Macro -3.4-14.0-11.2 3.1-25.6 All Hedge Funds 28.8 47.5 3.9-8.7 71.5 Source: Preqin Hedge Fund Analyst Fig. 2: Reported Change in Assets under Management by Hedge Fund Managers, 2014 vs. 2015 Fig. 3: Reported Change in the Amount of Capital Coming from Private Wealth Groups in 2015 Compared to 2014 100% 90% High-Net-Worth Individuals 53% 34% 12% 80% Proportion of Respondents 70% 60% 50% 40% 20% 70% 21% 59% 18% Increased Stayed the Same Decreased Retail Clients Wealth Managers Family Offices 47% 47% 56% 45% 45% 34% 8% 8% 11% 0% 23% 9% 2014 2015 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Proportion of Respondents Increased Stayed the Same Decreased 4 2016 Preqin Ltd. / www.preqin.com
Download the data pack: Preqin Special Report: Hedge Fund Manager Outlook New Fund Launches in 2016 Preqin asked fund managers whether they intend to launch a new fund in 2016, as well as how they believe certain strategies will perform over the next year. Twenty-nine percent of fund managers said they would be launching a new fund in 2016, a slight increase from the previous year, when 27% of managers told Preqin they were planning a new offering for 2015. As shown in Fig. 4, three in fi ve fund managers planning a new launch in 2016 intend to do so in the fi rst quarter of the year, with this fi gure tailing off throughout the year. This indicates that there may be more launches towards the end of the year, as those fund managers that do not have a planned offering in the pipeline may see a new opportunity later in 2016. Equity strategies funds are planned by a signifi cant proportion of fund managers; 43% of respondents with a new fund planned are looking to launch an equity-focused fund in 2016 (Fig. 5). Correspondingly, equity-focused strategies are expected to perform best in 2016 by 26% of fund managers, ahead of the next largest proportion (17%) of fund managers that believe macro strategies will perform the best in 2016 (Fig. 6). This is despite the fact that equity strategies returned just 0.87% in 2015, underperforming the Preqin All- Hedge Fund benchmark (+2.02%). In contrast, the outlook for CTAs is less optimistic. Although 14% of managers planning a new launch stated that a CTA strategy was in the works for 2016, this is lower than the 23% that were looking to launch this type of vehicle a year earlier. It follows a diffi cult period for managed futures, which posted -0.49% in 2015, with more managers believing this will be the worst performing strategy in 2016 than those that expect it to be the top performing strategy (16% vs. 15% respectively). CTAs typically offer non-correlated returns but confi dence in these funds was knocked in 2015 with poor returns delivered amid volatile equity markets. Our survey respondents also expect credit strategies to struggle in 2016, with one-third of managers tipping these funds to be the worst performers over the course of the year. A similar proportion () made the same forecast at the end of 2014, and yet credit funds outperformed some other strategies for much of 2015, ending the year with a 12-month return of 1.98%. It will be interesting to see if fund managers are proved correct in 2016, with the tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve and its consequences uncertain. Managers view funds that utilize multiple strategies in a more positive light heading into 2016. Thirteen percent of managers that plan to launch a new fund in 2016 will launch a multistrategy fund (Fig. 5). In addition, 15% of managers expect this approach to be the best performing strategy of the year, while only 3% expect multi-strategy funds to be the worst performers (Fig. 6). This prediction is not without merit; multi-strategy funds gained 4.14% in 2015, outperforming the hedge fund industry as a whole. Fig. 4: New Hedge Fund Launches Planned in 2016 By Quarter 24% 3% 13% 60% Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Unsure Fig. 5: that Fund Managers Are Planning to Launch in 2016 14% 6% 8% 26% 13% 7% 17% 1% 8% 43% Equity Macro Event Driven Credit Relative Value Managed Futures/CTA Multi-Strategy Niche Fig. 6: Fund Manager Outlook for the Best and Worst Performing in 2016 Proportion of Respondents 35% 25% 20% 15% 5% 0% 22% Equity 11% 9% Macro Event Driven 4% 33% Credit 13% 6% Relative Value 16% 15% 15% Managed Futures/CTAs 3% Multi-Strategy Expected to Be the Best Performing Strategy Expected to Be the Worst Performing Strategy 2016 Preqin Ltd. / www.preqin.com 5
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Download the data pack: Preqin Special Report: Hedge Fund Manager Outlook Challenges and Opportunities for 2016 The fund managers surveyed believe that the transparency around risk and performance will be the leading key driver of change for 2016 (Fig. 7). In addition, performance and navigating market volatility are the next leading challenges for fund managers in 2016, cited by 33% and of fund managers respectively. Macroeconomic events from across the globe such as the China slowdown, the Greek debt crisis and tumbling oil prices proved hard for hedge funds to navigate; the performance of the hedge fund sector in 2015 was its worst in four years. As shown in Fig. 8, the largest proportion (40%) of fund managers believe that their return goals had not been met in 2015. Managers believe this market volatility will continue into 2016 and it will be necessary to deliver better performance in order to win back the favour of those investors with a sceptical outlook towards the asset class. With many investors also citing performance as disappointing in 2015 (see the 2016 Preqin Global Hedge Fund Report), fund managers believe that they will not just have to perform better, they will also need to be more transparent in reporting to investors about the risks and the sources of return in order to be successful in 2016. Next to transparency, performance and volatility, investor pressure for reduced fees is viewed as a key issue for the industry in 2016, cited by 28% of fund managers. As investor concerns around performance grow, and the sector faces a more challenging fundraising environment, fund managers may need to reassess management and performance fees in order to fi nd success in 2016. Despite many fund managers believing that investor pressure for reduced fees will be a key challenge for 2016, which could lead to the need to cut costs, 84% of hedge fund managers intend to invest more money in their businesses in the year ahead. Forty-one percent of fund managers plan to invest more in their portfolio management capabilities in 2016 (Fig. 9). With successfully navigating market volatility in order to Fig. 7: Key Drivers of Change Facing the Hedge Fund Industry in 2016 Proportion of Respondents 45% 40% 35% 25% 20% 15% 5% 0% 40% Transparency around Risk and Performance 33% Performance Market Volatility 28% Investor Demand for More Favourable Fees generate better performance a key challenge for 2016, this investment in portfolio management may be necessary in order to improve this aspect of their hedge fund businesses. The same proportion (41%) intend to invest more capital in their marketing and business development capabilities. Fundraising could become more challenging in 2016 as many investors are taking a cautious approach to investing in the asset class (see the 2016 Preqin Global Hedge Fund Report); hedge fund managers look set to try to win a share of what infl ows there are through increased efforts on the sales front in 2016. A further 16% of hedge fund managers plan to make signifi cant investment in IT infrastructure in 2016 and a further 16% said they are planning to invest heavily in improving their legal and compliance capabilities, a necessary cost at a time when regulatory changes are prominent within the industry. 24% Investor Appetite for Alternative Investment Funds 22% 21% Liquidity at Fund Level Regulatory Scrutiny of Alternative Funds 19% Competition in Fundraising Fig. 8: Fund Manager Return Goals Relative to Expectations Fig. 9: Fund Manager Outlook for Business Area Investment in 2016 40% 23% Return Goals Were Exceeded Return Goals Were Met Proportion of Respondents 45% 40% 35% 25% 20% 15% 5% 0% 41% 41% 16% 16% 14% 14% 11% 12% 37% Return Goals Were Not Met Portfolio Management Marketing/Business Development IT Legal/ Compliance Operations Risk Management Investor Relations Middle/ Back Office 2016 Preqin Ltd. / www.preqin.com 7
Preqin Special Report: Hedge Fund Manager Outlook Download the data pack: Fund Closures in 2016 Preqin recorded 695 funds that closed in 2015; this number is likely to increase as more data becomes available in early 2016. The topic of fund closures has been much discussed over the past 12 months in light of large funds, such as Bluecrest, returning all external investor capital in 2015. However, most of the funds that liquidated over the year were not as large as Bluecrest; in fact, three-quarters of the funds that closed had less than $100mn in assets in their last year of trading. Preqin asked fund managers what they believed were the leading reasons behind fund closures over 2015; poor returns were cited by the largest proportion (37%) of fund managers (Fig. 10). In addition, 18% of fund managers believed it was some hedge funds inability to cope with the specifi c market events of 2015 that led to funds closing in the year. Fund managers also believe that small funds were at a disadvantage, with 19% of fund managers stating that most of the capital infl ows only go to the largest funds making it diffi cult for smaller funds to operate. Turning to 2016, fund managers were asked whether they believed there would be more funds closing business in 2016 than in 2015 (Fig. 11) and whether the numbers of funds closing in 2016 would exceed the number of new funds launched (Fig. 12). Although a large proportion (31%) of fund managers are unsure whether there will be more fund liquidations in 2016 than in 2015, the largest proportion of fund managers (58%) believe there would be an increase in the number of funds closing in 2016. When considering whether the industry would contract in 2016, in terms of total number of funds, fund managers showed more of a mixed outlook: 35% of fund managers are unsure on the issue, the same proportion believe there will be more fund closures than new launches and believe launches will outnumber closures. Although only time will tell whether the industry will continue to grow in terms of the total number of participating funds in 2016, it is likely that any growth we see will be smaller than in previous years. Fund managers are mostly agreed that a larger number of funds will close over the course of 2016 and many of the leading causes behind the liquidations in 2015 still persist: investor concerns over performance, infl ows into large funds, a diffi cult market environment and regulation are all very much ongoing concerns in the industry today. In fact, we could see the increased competition in fundraising cited by 7% of fund managers as a reason behind the fund closures in 2015 become more important in 2016. Preqin s survey of 150 investors at the end of 2015 revealed that more investors intend to reduce their exposure to hedge funds in 2016 than increase it, the fi rst time Preqin has recorded this net movement in favour of investors taking capital out of hedge funds since we began gathering this data in 2009. This could indicate that raising capital will become even more challenging in 2016; those fund managers that are unable to pinpoint investors that are seeking new hedge fund opportunities may struggle if their existing investors choose to redeem capital. Fig. 10: Reasons for Fund Closures in 2015 9% 7% 18% 19% 37% Poor Returns Capital Flows Only Go to the Largest Funds Hedge Funds Were Unable to Cope with Market Volatility Regulation Increased Competition in Fundraising Other Fig. 11: Fund Manager Outlook on the Number of Fund Closures in 2016 31% 11% 58% There Will Be More Closures in 2016 than 2015 There Will Be Fewer Closures in 2016 than 2015 Unsure Fig. 12: Fund Manager Outlook on the Number of Fund Closures vs. Fund Launches in 2016 35% 35% More Funds Will Close than Launch More Funds Will Launch than Close Unsure 8 2016 Preqin Ltd. / www.preqin.com
Download the data pack: Preqin Special Report: Hedge Fund Manager Outlook Outlook for 2016 For yet another year, concerns around the performance of the hedge fund sector have failed to dampen fund managers overall optimism for the year ahead. Sixty-three percent of surveyed managers maintain a positive outlook for 2016, the same proportion as when the question was posed the previous year (Fig. 13). Just of managers expressed a negative outlook for 2016. Fig. 13: Fund Manager Outlook for the Hedge Fund Industry in 2016 In conjunction with this positive outlook on the industry, managers are predicting an increase in AUM over the course of 2016. Seventy-two percent of respondents believe that industry assets will increase next year (Fig. 14). Indeed, fund managers remain optimistic for performance gains in 2016; 69% of those surveyed said that they expect the benchmark to post higher returns than in 2015 (Fig. 15). With gains for 2015 at a four-year low (+2.02%), investors and fund managers alike will be hoping that this will be achieved in 2016. 27% Positive Neutral 63% Negative Fig. 14: Fund Manager Outlook for Hedge Fund Industry Assets under Management in 2016 Fig. 15: Fund Manager Outlook for Hedge Fund Performance in 2016 Compared to 2015 13% 13% The 2016 Preqin All- Hedge Fund Benchmark Will Surpass the 2015 Return 15% Increase Stay the Same 9% The 2016 Preqin All- Hedge Fund Benchmark Will Be Approximately the Same as the 2015 Return 72% Decrease 69% The 2016 Preqin All- Hedge Fund Benchmark Will Fall Short of the 2015 Return Unsure at Present Preqin Hedge Fund Online: The Leading Source of Intelligence on the Hedge Fund Industry Hedge Fund Online is Preqin s award-winning hedge fund information resource, incorporating all of our hedge fund data, intelligence and functionality, providing you with the most comprehensive coverage of the asset class available. Hedge Fund Online is updated on a daily basis by teams of skilled research analysts based around the globe, providing extremely reliable data and information for fund managers, investors, service providers and a host of other professionals with an interest in the industry. Arrange a demo to explore Preqin s Hedge Fund Online: www.preqin.com/demo London: +44 (0)20 3207 0200 New York: +1 212 350 0100 Singapore: +65 6305 2200 San Francisco: +1 415 316 0580 Hong Kong: +852 3958 2819 2016 Preqin Ltd. / www.preqin.com 9
Preqin Special Report: Hedge Fund Manager Outlook February 2016 Preqin: Global Data and Intelligence If you want any further information, or would like a demo of our products, please contact us: New York: With global coverage and detailed information on all aspects of the hedge fund asset class, Preqin s industry-leading Hedge Fund Online service keeps you up-to-date on all the latest developments across the hedge fund universe. Source new investors for funds Find the most relevant investors, with access to detailed profiles for over 5,000 institutional investors actively investing in hedge funds, including insurance companies, pension funds, family offices, foundations, wealth managers, endowment plans, banks, fund of hedge funds managers and more. Identify potential investment opportunities View in-depth profiles for hedge funds seeking capital, including information on investment strategy, geographic focus, structure, service providers used, sample investors, direct contact information and more. Find active fund managers of hedge funds Search for firms operating hedge funds. View information on key contacts, assets under management, performance history, key investment preferences, known investors and more. Benchmark performance Identify which fund managers have the best track records with fully customizable performance benchmarks, and view performance details on individual named funds and share classes. Examine fund terms and conditions Access fund-by-fund and industry level fund terms and conditions data for individual hedge funds, which provide a market overview, enabling you to see the current trends for specific strategies, structures, sizes and more. View detailed profiles of service providers Search for active administrators, custodians, prime brokers, auditors and law firms by type and location of funds and managers serviced. Customize league tables of service providers by type, location of headquarters, and total known number of funds serviced. For more information on how Preqin s hedge fund online services can help you, please visit: www.preqin.com/hedge One Grand Central Place 60 E 42nd Street Suite 630, New York NY 10165 Tel: +1 212 350 0100 Fax: +1 440 445 9595 London: 3rd Floor Vintners Place 68 Upper Thames Street London EC4V 3BJ Tel: +44 (0)20 3207 0200 Fax: +44 (0)87 0330 5892 Singapore: One Finlayson Green, #11-02 Singapore 049246 Tel: +65 6305 2200 Fax: +65 6491 5365 San Francisco: One Embarcadero Center Suite 2850 San Francisco CA 94111 Tel: +1 415 316 0580 Fax: +1 440 445 9595 Hong Kong: Level 9, Central Building 1-3 Pedder Street Central, Hong Kong Tel: +852 3958 2819 Fax: +852 3975 2800 Email: info@preqin.com Web: www.preqin.com 2015 Preqin Ltd. / www.preqin.com