Advancing Queensland s Economy Growing Innovation $300 billion Economy $53 billion Budget Attracting Investment Creating Jobs More than $40 billion infrastructure over 4 years Building Infrastructure 2
Queensland s Economic Plan 3
Economic Outlook Strongest economic growth in Australia this year and coming years Economic growth at 3½% in 2015-16 rising to 4% in 2016-17 Growth led by diversified export portfolio, incl. LNG ramp-up Components of growth stabilising, including improving household consumption and business investment Employment growth of 1¾%, unemployment falling to 5 ¾% over FEs
INDEX (1989-90 = 100) Queensland Budget 2016-17 Economic growth comparisons 350 300 250 200 150 100 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 QUEENSLAND AUSTRALIA OECD 5
Annual % change Queensland Budget 2016-17 Fastest growing State economy 5 4 3 2 1 0 2014 15 2015 16 2016 17 2017 18 Est. Actual Forecast NSW Vic. QLD WA SA Tas. Forecast 6
Queensland s diversified economy 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Health care Education and training Finance and property services Transport and communications Other Wholesale and retail trade 40% Construction 30% 20% 10% 0% QLD NSW VIC SA WA TAS NT ACT Public sector and utilites Manufacturing Natural resources Agriculture 7
Annual % point contribution Queensland Budget 2016-17 Components of Queensland s growth 4 2014 15 2015 16 2016 17 2017 18 2 0-2 -4-6 Household consumption Dwelling investment Business investment Public final demand Overseas exports Overseas imports GSP 8
Fiscal Outlook Operating surpluses of $3.2 billion over forward estimates Operating surplus of $867 million for 2016-17 largest in a decade Revenue growth (3.2%) outpacing expenses growth (2.9%) General Govt debt $10.4 billion lower than 2014-15 Budget projection Debt to revenue ratio down from 87% in 2014-15 to 71% in 2015-16
Forecast surpluses 1400 1200 $m 1000 800 600 400 200 $1.1b disaster relief withheld by Federal Government Lower GST in 2018-19 0 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Est. Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast 10
Revenue outpacing expenses 56 Average revenue growth 3.2% $ billions 54 Average expenses growth 2.9% 52 50 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Revenue Expenses
New fiscal principle Average public service FTE growth over the forward estimates should not exceed population growth. 12
Reduction in General Government Debt 50 2014 15 Budget 2015 16 Budget 2016 17 Budget 46 $ billions 42 38 34 30 2014 15 2015 16 2016 17 2017 18 2018 19 2019 20 13
Reduction in Non-Financial Public Sector Debt 84 Non-Financial Public Sector gross borrowings 82 80 $ billions 78 76 74 72 70 2014 15 2015 16 2016 17 2017 18 2018 19 2019 20 2014 15 Budget 2014 15 MYFER 2015 16 Budget 2015 16 MYFER 2016 17 Budget 14
% Queensland Budget 2016-17 Debt to revenue ratio General government debt to revenue forecasts 105 100 95 90 2014-15 Budget Debt to Revenue ratio down 15% on 2014-15 forecast 85 80 75 70 2015-16 Budget 2016-17 Budget 65 2012 13 2013 14 2014 15 2015 16 2016 17 2017 18 2018 19 2019 20 15
Debt Action Plan Defined Benefit Scheme $2b $4b repatriation State Infrastructure Fund $10b surplus $6b remaining surplus $2b Debt reduction Current fund $34b 100% Fully funded $24b 100% Fully funded $24b All payouts guaranteed by legislation Only fully funded scheme in Australia Scheme funding as at 30 June 2015 16
Revenue measures 3% transfer duty surcharge on foreign purchasers of residential property Tax avoidance crackdown, particularly not-for-profit status 12-month boost to First Home Owners Grant for new builds ($20,000) Transfer duty concession for intergenerational transfers of family farms
10 YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD (PER CENT) Queensland Budget 2016-17 Peer comparison 3.50 Bond yields and gross debt levels for advanced economies 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00-0.50 Queensland New Zealand Taiwan Korea Hong Kong Norway Australia Singapore Israel United States Slovenia Malta Spain Canada United Kingdom Slovak Republic Czech Republic Ireland Finland Sweden France Austria Belgium Denmark Netherlands Germany Switzerland Portugal Italy -1.00 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 GROSS DEBT (PER CENT OF GDP) Non-AAA AAA QLD 18
Growing innovation $405 million Advance Queensland Growing Innovation Includes $225 million Advance Queensland acceleration $19.7 million Biofutures roadmap 19
Attracting business investment $40 million Industry Attraction Fund Attracting Investment Two new trade offices in China and Singapore $33 million Connecting with Asia tourism strategy 20
Market-led proposals $450 million Logan Motorway enhancement 1300 potential jobs $100 million Queensland Aquarium and Maritime Museum $100 million Brisbane International Cruise Terminal 300 potential jobs 21
Building Infrastructure More than $40 billion over four years $10.7 billion in 2016-17 Building Infrastructure $2 billion State Infrastructure Fund 31,000 jobs supported in 2016-17 22
2018 Gold Coast Commonwealth Games $550 million Health and Knowledge Precinct $122 million Carrara Sports Precinct Global investment and sponsorship opportunities 23
Environment $21.7 million this year to protect the Great Barrier Reef $89.1 million wildlife and environmental protection $33 million Connecting with Asia Strategy 24
Advancing Queensland s Economy Growing Innovation Attracting Investment Creating Jobs Building Infrastructure 25