Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Insurance Conference September 7, 2005
What We Will Cover Radian: A legacy of innovation and success Facing new challenges and opportunities Focusing on creating value Well positioned to succeed 2
Radian Highlights Global Credit Risk Management Company Where We Began Private mortgage insurance company founded in 1977 IPO in 1992: US $221 million in equity Timeline 1999: Completed the merger of CMAC and Amerin 2000: Began writing mortgage-related credit enhancement products 2001: Acquired financial guaranty company Enhance (Including interests in C-BASS and Sherman) 2002: Founding partner of Primus; IPO in 2004 2003: Began international expansion 2004: Launched Smart Home (a structured solution for transferring credit risk) 2005 and Ongoing: Continue to leverage the convergence of Financial Guaranty and Mortgage Insurance 3
Financial Highlights Key Financial Highlights as of June 30, 2005 Assets $7.2 billion Investments $5.6 billion Equity $3.6 billion Market Capitalization $4.0 billion Book Value Per Share $41.99 4
Diluted Net Income Per Share CAGR of 19.4% through 2004 6.00 5.33 5.00 4.00 3.88 4.41 4.08 3.00 3.22 2.45* 2.79* 2.00 1.91 1.00 0.00 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004* 1H04 1H05 * In In conformity conformity with with the the current current period period presentation presentation and as and required as required by newly by issued newly accounting issued accounting rules, the prior rules, period the presentation prior period has presentation been adjusted has to reflect been adjusted the to inclusion reflect of 3.8 the million inclusion shares of 3.8 underlying million contingently shares underlying convertible contingently debt. The impact convertible of including debt. these The shares impact in of the including calculation these was a shares reduction in the of $0.18 calculation for the twelve was a months reduction ended December of $0.18 for 31, the 2004, twelve $0.08 months for the six ended months December ended June 31, 30, 2004, 2004 $0.08 and $0.10 for the for six the months six months ended ended June June 30, 30, 2004 2005. and $0.10 for the six months ended June 30, 2005. In Dollars 5
Book Value and Adjusted Book Value Book Value and Adjusted Book Value CAGR of 23.1% and 20.9% through 2004 $60 $50 49.48 54.70 58.07 $40 $30 $20 $10 21.15 14.17 25.67 17.97 35.49 24.54 42.22 29.42 34.31 39.98 41.99 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2Q05 Book Value Adjusted Book Value Per Share Amounts 6
Return on Equity 25% 20% 15% 15.6% 16.3% 17.6% 20.0% 19.5% 16.7% 12.9% 15.0% 14.1% 10% 5% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1H05 7
Corporate Structure Radian Financial Guaranty Mortgage Insurance Financial Services Radian Asset Assurance Inc. (AA/Aa3/AA) Radian Guaranty Inc. (AA/Aa3/AA) C-BASS 46% Interest Sherman 42% Interest Radian Asset Assurance Ltd.* (AA/NR/AA) Radian Financial Products Ltd.* Radian Insurance Inc. (AA/Aa3/AA) Radian Mortgage Services Ltd.* 1H05 Contribution to Net Income 23% 49% 28% Segment Equity at 6/30/05 $1,309 MM $1,920 MM $338 MM 8 * International Entities
Industry Trends and Market Opportunities Mortgage Total mortgage debt outstanding at year end 2005 Forecasted to be $8.74T Increasing to $9.46T in 2006 and $10.24T in 2007 Total residential mortgage production in 2005 Predicted to be $2.74T Declining in 2006 to $2.32T and $2.2T in 2007 Residential mortgage originations for purchase loans Increase to $1.62T in 2005 Edging up to $1.64T in 2006 and $1.68T in 2007 Existing-home sales 2005: will rise 2% to a new record of $6.97B 2006: will decline about 3% 2007: will decline about 2% Source: Mortgage Bankers Association 9
Industry Trends and Market Opportunities Mortgage National median existing-home prices 2005: expected to increase 6.8% 2006 and 2007: expected to slow to more sustainable pace of 4-5% Long-term interest rates End of 2005: expected to gradually increase from current levels by 20 to 30 basis points 2006 and 2007: gradual increase of 40 to 50 basis points in 2006 reaching an estimated 6.25% in 2007 Unemployment rate 2005 and 2006: expected to remain flat at 5% 2007: slight decline to 4.9% 10 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
Industry Trends and Market Opportunities Mortgage Lender Consolidation Alternatives to Traditional MI Proliferation of new mortgage products Housing Prices (Worldwide) Tight Credit Spreads Role of GSE s likely to Change International Securitization and Credit Enhancement Rapid Growth of Synthetic Structured Products 11
Industry Trends and Market Opportunities Financial Guaranty Business participates in the US public debt market $2 Trillion in outstandings 5% annual growth rate Global credit derivatives market has grown 56% annually since 1999 Now exceeds $5 Trillion Projected to grow at 27% per year annually over the next 2 years Growth of derivatives on ABS Reinsurance is being used more for portfolio shaping than capital relief 12
Corporate Objectives Achieve strong returns and grow shareholder value by building upon our existing portfolio of high performing core and complimentary businesses focused around: Global credit risk management Expertise in the residential mortgage space Achieve a 12 to 15% ROE 13
Business Objectives Mortgage Credit Risk Management Increase both the level and the longevity of MI earnings Broaden Radian s role in the domestic and international mortgage markets beyond traditional MI Financial Guaranty Address near term challenges related to ROE, expenses, and rating agency outlooks Strategic Investments Capitalize on the ownership interests in C-Bass and Sherman by pursuing strategically important programs that leverage each other s capabilities Capital Management Allocate capital prudently and efficiently in order to maximize risk adjusted return on capital 14
Mortgage Credit Risk Management Delivering value to mortgage industry players in the origination / acquisition of loans (credit risk). Delivering value to mortgage industry players in managing the credit risk associated with loans they originate/acquire. Also managing Radian s own credit risk. Delivering value to mortgage industry players in the distribution of their credit risk/exposure. Also the distribution of Radian s own credit risk/exposure. Mortgage Credit Risk Management Mortgage Risk Acquisition Mortgage Risk Management Mortgage Risk Distribution Radian Capabilities Mortgage Insurance Underwriting MBS Credit Enhancement Surveillance Claims Mitigation Specialty Collections Reinsurance Smart Home Transactions Specialty Conduit MBS Credit Enhancement 15
Mortgage Credit Risk Business Model Rapidly Changing Mortgage Market Business Channels Domestic Business Direct Strategic Accounts Capital Markets Traditional Channels International International Mortgages Group Risk Management / Credit Policy Operations IT Technology IT 16
Mortgage Credit Risk Strategies for Success Clients Needs Strategies Successes Business Direct Regional lenders, builders, credit unions, state housing authorities (e.g. regional banks) Prime MI, sales and underwriting support, training Expand sales and support coverage and offer appropriate new products Tailored LPMI Strategic Accounts National lenders, GSEs (e.g. top national lenders) Customization, innovative risk-sharing structures Provide tailored solutions, fast response, and offer proactive ideas (MI and FG) to improve execution Innovative FG structure led to increased revenue and marketshare offsetting drop in traditional MI Capital Markets Non-prime originators, aggregators, Wall St (e.g. sub-prime lenders) Best execution, innovative structures Offer unique FG solutions; be highly selective and share risks/rewards Smart Home, NIMS, Credit Default Swaps International Non-US domiciled lenders, off-shore subs (e.g. major Asian bank) Capital relief, innovative products Offer broad mortgage and FG capabilities (not limited to MI) Hong Kong partnership Stable Growing 17
Mortgage Credit Risk Business Stages New Ideas International Mortgage Capital Markets Business Direct Strategic Accounts Embryonic Growth Mature Growth Stabilization and Market Maturity Deceleration Of Growth and Decline Growth Strong Growth Stable Growth Innovation Extension Growth for the Future Significant Growth off Small Base Time Each Stage Requires a Different Set of Fundamental Actions and Strategies 18
Managing the Mortgage Credit Risk Trends Home Price Appreciation Monitoring closely 19 MSAs, representing 18.6% RIF. Most of these MSAs have average LTVs of 90 for vintage years 2004 and 2005. Current RIF in California is 10% Percent of insured loans greater than $500K is 1.7% Interest Only (I/O) Loans Comprised approximately 3.5% of Risk Written Tend to have higher FICOs and be concentrated in 90/95 LTV Option ARMs Volume is increasing as we have seen the concentration within Risk Written rise on Potential Negative Amortization from 2.5% in 1Q05 to 5.7% in 2Q05 2 nd Liens Predominately risk share deals Prepayments continue to be quite fast Product Risk Layering Portfolio Triggers Underwriting / Structuring Monitoring / Loss Mitigation 19
Financial Guaranty Business Model Direct Reinsurance Public Finance Strong Niche Expertise Focus on Facultative versus Treaty Structured Finance Growing CDO Market with AA Counterparties 20
Financial Guaranty Strategies for Success Financial Guaranty: Primary Financial Guaranty: Reinsurance Products Domestic Public Finance ABS Reinsurance Clients/ Counterparties Needs Strategies Successes Municipal Bond Issuers Issuers of Securitizations AAA Monoline Financial Guaranty Insurers Provide access to capital markets cost effectively Provide AAA primaries with relief from concentrations Strong underlying credits in niche sectors Niche credits and issuers within well understood sectors; strong credits in traditional sectors Facultative Reinsurance Community Hospital Medical Center Future flow transaction for Turkish Bank; hedge to Bank Conduit Reinsurance capacity to AAA company for GO 21
Financial Guaranty Strategies for Success Credit Arbitrage Financial Solutions Products CDOs / ABS Domestic Secondary Market Public Finance PFI / PPP / Project Finance Second to Pay Clients/ Counterparties Needs Strategies Successes Financial institutions seeking protection Brokers / Dealers Banks / Financial institutions seeking protection FI buying protection on AAA guarantors Provide an AA counterparty to our clients Facilitate the broker/dealer s arbitrage Regulatory capital relief; hedge credit risk; improve ROE / price competitiveness Reduce concentrations in AAA monolines Credit arbitrage, secondary market ABS credit arbitrage, arrange transactions Secondary Market Arbitrage (pre-approved credits) Enable Banks to compete more effectively against capital markets executions Help FI manage AAA monoline concentrations $150MM CDO of CDO s and ABS with 13% attachment point $103MM of CA State GO par insured on capacity constrained name Synthetic Collateralized Loan Obligation on Bank PFI Loan Portfolio Second to Pay wrap on a $200MM AAA companyinsured leveraged loan CLO Clearinghouse / Trading Desks Financial exchanges / clearinghouses Soft capital provision Partner w/ institutions to strengthen their capital position $75MM transaction with a foreign exchange clearing house 22
Managing the Financial Guaranty Trends Tight Credit Spreads Selectively moving up the capital structure to optimize risk/reward Increased Competition from New Entrants / Slowdown in Par Written Growth Across the Industry Focused growth being achieved through expanded marketing efforts, implementation of European business plan, and financial solutions opportunities Growth in Alternative Forms of Credit Enhancement (i.e. letters of credit, derivative product companies) Entered the bank market, helping banks compete against capital market executions. Significant expansion opportunities in the PFI, PPP, and Project Finance Sectors Increased Competition and Adverse Selection in the Reinsurance Market Increased emphasis on facultative reinsurance over treaty, where we add more value by leveraging our primary underwriting skills 23
C-BASS and Sherman Financial Both have positive earnings track records Strong franchise value Continuing to build value Diversifying revenue sources Creating recurring annuity streams Less impacted by cycles Exploring opportunities to leverage partnerships 24
C-BASS Strategies for Success Purchases, services and securitizes credit sensitive residential mortgage assets Strong earnings growth, ROEs and cash flow Built servicing portfolio to more than $33 billion Top-rated special servicer Greater than 80% revenues are recurring from servicing, money management and portfolio management Pre-tax net income during 1H 2005 of $135.8 million Compliments Radian s capital markets channel in accessing the subprime markets Well positioned to perform strongly through diverse economic scenarios 25
Sherman Financial Strategies for Success Purchases and services distressed consumer debt Purchases made at deep discounts to their original face value from national financial institutions and major retail corporations Originator of subprime credit cards through the acquisition of Bank of Marin in 2005 Diversified their revenue stream Strong earnings growth, ROEs and cash flow Assets of $827 million 1H 2005 net revenues of $359 million Pre-tax net income of $134 million 26
Summary Our strategy is to leverage the convergence of the financial markets and be a Global, Mortgage Credit Risk Management Company this vision is consistent with our heritage, our skills, and our market opportunities, and provides clarity to our shareholders, investors, clients, and staff. Our current businesses face near-term cyclical as well as structural challenges but continue to offer a strong diversified platform that is capable of generating attractive returns and growth over the next few years Our traditional MI channels produce steady earnings with reasonable risk-adjusted returns that can fund investment in our future growth from our capital markets and international channels Our Aa FG platform can generate satisfactory returns and growth The mortgage industry is huge and provides attractive opportunities to grow revenues while leveraging our skills To achieve our vision and financial objectives, we are creating a culture that values credit risk management, strategic focus, financial discipline and superior execution 27
Safe Harbor Statement All statements in this press release that address operating performance, events or developments that we expect or anticipate may occur in the future are forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are made on the basis of management s current views and assumptions with respect to future events. The forward-looking statements, as well as Radian s prospects as a whole, are subject to risks and uncertainties including the following: changes in general financial and political conditions, such as extended national or regional economic recessions (or expansions), changes in housing values, changes or volatility in interest rates, or other political instability; changes in investor perception of the strength of private mortgage insurers or financial guaranty providers, and risks faced by the businesses, municipalities or pools of assets covered by Radian s insurance; the loss of significant customers with whom Radian has a concentration of its insurance in force; rising delinquencies in mortgage loans insured by Radian resulting from increased consolidation of mortgage lenders and servicers; increased severity or frequency of losses associated with certain Radian products that are riskier than traditional mortgage insurance and municipal guaranty insurance policies; material changesin persistency rates of Radian s mortgage insurance policies; downgrades of the insurance financial-strength ratings assigned by the major ratings agencies to Radian s operating subsidiaries; intense competition from others and from alternative products to private mortgage insurance and financial guaranty insurance; changes in the business practices of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac; the application of existing federal or state consumer lending and insurance laws and regulations, or unfavorable changes in these laws and regulations or the way they are interpreted or applied, including the possibility of private lawsuits or investigations by state insurance departments and state attorneys general alleging that services offered by the mortgage insurance industry, such as captive reinsurance, pool insurance and contract underwriting, are violative of the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act and/or similar state regulations (particularly in light of public reports that some state insurance departments may review or investigate captive reinsurance arrangements used in the mortgage insurance industry); legislative and regulatory changes affecting demand for private mortgage insurance and financial guaranty insurance; changes in claims against mortgage insurance products resulting from the aging of Radian s mortgage insurance policies; changes in Radian s ability to maintain sufficient reinsurance capacity in an increasingly concentrated reinsurance market; vulnerability to the performance of Radian s strategic investments; and the loss of executive officers or other key personnel. Investors are also directed to other risks discussed in documents filed by Radian with the SEC, including the factors detailed in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2004 in the section immediately preceding Part I of the report. Radian does not intend to and disclaims any duty or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements made in this press release to reflect new information, future events or for any other reason. 28
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