The Saturday Economist UK Economic Outlook Q1 2015

The Saturday Economist The Saturday Economist UK Economic Outlook Q1 2015 Leisure and Construction driving recovery UK Economic Outlook March 2015 Page 1

The UK recovery continues. We expect growth of 2.9% in 2015 slowing to 2.8% in 2016. The collapse in oil prices has significantly changed the world outlook for growth and inflation over 2015. Growth estimates for oil importers have been revised upwards and the fortunes of oil exporters have been revised down as a result. The inflation outlook is much more benign with fears of deflation continuing to overhang the recovery in Europe. In the UK we expect the economy to grow by 2.9% in 2015 following growth of 2.6% last year. In the US the recovery continues with growth of 3.1% expected in the year ahead. We expect base rates to rise in 2015 Q3 In this March economics update we forecast world growth of 2.9% in 2015 increasing to 3.1% in 2016. UK Inflation will average just 0.8%, CPI basis, over the balance of the year. Unemployment will continue to fall, government borrowing will also fall. The service sector will lead the recovery as manufacturing and construction output also rise. We are forecasting a modest increase in manufacturing of around 2.5% with a 5.5% increase in construction activity as the strong housing market recovery continues. The trade figures will continue to disappoint, offset by a potential 4 billion oil dividend, as a result of the oil price collapse. The challenge to the current account following the drop in overseas investment income continues and will present a significant problem to the outlook for sterling over the medium term. For the moment, the Dollar and the Swiss Franc remain the traders favourites with the Euro under pressure as the QE placebo unwinds slowly across Euro land. UK Economic Outlook March 2015 Page 2

Contents Chapter 1 The World Economy page 4 Chapter 2 World Trade and Oil Prices page 6 Chapter 3 UK Economics Growth in UK GDP (O) Output page 7 Chapter 4 UK Economics Growth in UK GDP (E) Expenditure chained page 9 Chapter 5 UK Economics Growth - Investment - mind the gap? page 11 Chapter 6 UK trade in goods and services page 13 Chapter 7 Labour market trends page 14 Chapter 8 Government Borrowing page 15 Chapter 9 Inflation Outlook page 16 Chapter 10 Interest Rates - base rates and gilt yields page 17 Appendices page 18 UK Economic Outlook March 2015 Page 3

Chapter 1 World Economy The world economy is expected to have grown by 2.6% in 2014. We forecast growth of 2.9% in 2015 and 3.1% in 2016. Recovery in the USA and UK, will continue. We expect growth of 3.1% in US in 2015 slowing to 3.0% in 2016. Slower growth is expected in the oil producing economies of OPEC, Russia and Venezuela. The setback in Russia will be a particular problem with some analysts expecting the economy to shrink by -4%. On a regional basis, growth in Sub Saharan Africa and the Asia Pacific region will continue at around 4.5%. Recovery in North America is expected to accelerate as US growth impacts on Mexico. In Canada, growth will moderate slightly as oil prices impact on oil output. In South America, we expect growth of just 1.6% with continuing problems in Venezuela, and Argentina. Slow growth in Brazil will impact on the regional performance. In Eastern Europe problems in Russia and the Ukraine, will weigh on the growth prospects for the region. Growth of just 0.2% is expected this year, rising to 1.8% in 2016. Growth in Western Europe will improve led by a recovery in Germany. We expect growth of 1.5% in 2015, increasing from 1.2% in 2014. In the Eurozone, we expect growth of 1.2% up from 0.8% in 2014. We do not expect much from any early QE expansion. World trade is expected to grow by 3.5% in 2014 and 3.8% in 2016. World prices for energy, particularly oil, primary metals, food and manufactures will remain subdued. We expect oil prices to rally to $75 per barrel Brent Crude basis by the final quarter of 2015. cf a forecast average - $60 in Q1 2015. Overall the recovery in the world economy will continue, with limited acceleration in price levels through this year. 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0-1.0 16.0 12.0 8.0 4.0-4.0-8.0-12.0-16.0 Chart 1.1 : World GDP growth % Chart 1.2: World Trade growth % the recovery continues. UK Economic Outlook March 2015 Page 4

Table 1 World Economy GDP Growth % Top Ten Markets 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 United States 2.5 1.8 2.8 2.2 2.5 3.1 3.0 China 10.4 9.4 7.7 7.6 7.4 7.3 7.2 Japan 4.7-0.4 1.4 1.6 0.3 1.3 1.5 Germany 4.0 3.3 0.7 0.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 France 1.6 2.0 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.5 Brazil 7.5 2.7 1.0 2.5 0.1 0.2 1.0 United Kingdom 1.6 1.2 0.7 1.7 2.6 2.9 2.8 Italy 1.7 0.6-2.4-1.8-0.4 0.5 1.1 Russia 4.5 4.3 3.4 1.3 0.6-4.1 0.5 India 7.5 6.7 4.5 4.7 5.6 6.4 6.6 World GDP 4.5 3.4 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.9 3.0 World Trade % 14.6 6.0 2.1 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.8 The estimates are produced with heavy reliance on world trade forecasts from the European Union, the IMF, the OECD, the World Bank and the NIESR world model. Additional data is derived from the USA Bureau of Economic Affairs. World trade data is developed from the CPB World Trade Monitor, produced by the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. We also utilise the Consensus Economics data : Consensus Forecasts, Asia Pacific, Latin America and Eastern Europe. The Top Ten economies in the world account for approximately two thirds of global GDP. UK Economic Outlook March 2015 Page 5

Chapter 2 World Trade and Oil Prices Oil price Brent Crude basis averaged $99 per barrel in 2014, falling to $50 in the final quarter of the year. World commodity prices, excluding fuel (chart 2.3) have been extremely volatile increasing by over 25% in 2006 and 2010. 12 10 Chart 2.1 : Oil Prices $ per barrel We expect oil prices to remain around $60 in the first quarter of 2015 rising to $85 (Brent Crude basis) by the end of the year. World trade prices fell by -1.0% in 2013 and by an estimated -1.6 % in 2014. We expect world trade prices to remain under pressure falling by a further -1.5% in 2015 recovering to 0.5% growth in 2016. In 2013, commodity prices fell by 4.7% with a further fall of 2.2% 2014. We expect prices to stabilise in 2015 with a strong rally in 2016. Trends in world trade, world trade prices and commodity prices continue to suggest a modest world recovery, derived of growth in Europe, with no inflationary pressure evident. Chart 2.2 : World Trade Prices 8 6 4 2 Chart 2.3 :World Commodity Prices We believe basic metal prices including, copper, zinc, lead, aluminium and iron have reached a basic floor level which will lead to a moderate recovery by 2016. 15.0 1 5.0 3 2 1 Precious metals, gold, silver and p l a t i n u m h a v e d e m o n s t r a t e d consolidation with gold trading at around $1,200 in January 2015. -5.0-1 -15.0-1 -2-3 no worries about inflation. UK Economic Outlook March 2015 Page 6

The Saturday Economist Chapter 3 Growth in UK GDP (O) Output We model UK GDP growth in the first instance using our pragmatic GDP (O) model. On this basis we employ more conventional business modelling techniques including, ARIMA, exponential smoothing, pattern recognition and econometrics. Manufacturing output remains almost 5% below the peaks registered in 2008 prior to recession. Following an increase in manufacturing output of 2.8% in 2014, we expect growth of 2.5% in 2015 and 2.5% in 2016. 4.0 2.0-2.0 Chart 3.1 : UK GDP growth % We also utilise the Manchester Index as part of our nowcasting model, producing a short term steer on directions within the UK and Greater Manchester economy. Within the service sector, the leisure sector is expected to show strong growth along with a strong performance in business services, transport and finance. -4.0-6.0 Following growth of 1.7% in 2013 and growth of 2.6% in 2014, we now expect growth of 2.9% in 2015, slowing to 2.8% in 2016. The service sector will continue to underpin growth in the economy. Following growth of 3.0% in 2014, we expect service sector growth of 3.2% in 2015 and 3.0% in 2016. Construction output, driven by developments in housing and infrastructure, is expected to increase by 5.5% in 2015 and 5.0% in 2016, following growth of 6.7% in 2014. Overall, the UK will experience strong growth in output over the next two years. [We estimate the long term trend rate of growth to be 2.6% following latest data revisions. We do not share concerns about UK productivity.] The service sector will continue to underpin growth in the UK assisted by developments in manufacturing and construction. The surge in housing building activity is expected to continue into the year. 4.0 2.0-2.0-4.0-6.0 Chart 3.2 : Service Sector % our overall forecast for growth in 2015 is 2.9%. UK Economic Outlook March 2015 Page 7

Table 3 UK GDP (O) Growth % Key Sectors 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Agriculture -0.7 8.5-4.6-3.9 2.6 3.6 3.5 Extractives -2.4-14.2-10.8-2.5-0.2-4.8-3.0 Manufacturing 4.2 1.8-1.3-0.7 2.8 2.5 2.5 Electricity, Gas 4.0-6.2-0.8 0.3-5.8 2.9 2.5 Water, Sewage -1.3 5.3-0.9 3.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 Total Production 2.9-0.8-2.7-0.5 1.4 1.3 1.4 Construction 8.3 2.1-7.5 1.4 7.3 5.5 5.0 Service Sector Leisure 1.0 1.9 1.5 3.5 4.8 3.9 3.5 Transport 3.0 1.8 1.4 1.4 2.8 3.9 3.5 Business et al 0.4 3.2 3.0 2.5 3.6 3.9 3.8 Education, Hth 0.3 0.9 1.4 0.3 1.2 1.2 1.3 Total Services 0.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 3.2 3.0 Total GDP (O) 1.6 1.2 0.7 1.7 2.7 2.9 2.8 Full details and charts of the GDP(O) forecasts are available in the appendix data The forecast is broadly consistent with the Second Estimate of GDP Q4 2014 released by the ONS on the 26th February 2015. UK Economic Outlook March 2015 Page 8

Chapter 4 Growth in UK GDP (E) - Expenditure chained measure We continue to offer little hope for the rebalancing agenda in our forecasts for growth in expenditure. We expect exports to increase by 2.5% in 2015 and 2.6% in 2016 following growth of just 0.4% in 2014.. 4.0 2.4 Chart 4.1 : Households % Household expenditure increased by 2.1% in 2014. We expect growth of 2.5% in 2015 and 2.5% in 2016 as real income growth impacts. Imports increased by 1.8% in 2014. We expect growth of 2.6% in 2015 increasing to 2.7% in the following year. 0.8-0.8-2.4 Government expenditure increased by 1.5% in 2014. Government expenditure is expected to increase by 2.0% in 2015, slowing to 1.8% in 2016. Our GDP Expenditure model is consistent and balanced with the ONS data. We forecast GDP(E) growth of 2.9% in 2015 and 2.8% in 2015. -4.0 Investment increase by 6.8% in 2014. We expect growth of 5.4% in 2015 and 5.2% in 2016. The trade deficit will continue to be have a negative impact on UK GDP but of itself will not be a constraint to growth. 1 Chart 4.2 : Investment % Domestic expenditure increased by 2.9% in 2014 with a significant contribution from inventory build. We expect growth of 2.7% in 2015 and 2.6% in 2016. We continue to caution on the overall current account deficit. In the final quarter of 2014 the deficit averaged 6.0% of GDP. *We estimate a 10% fall in the oil price is worth 5.0-5.0-1 Net trade will continue to have a negative impact on growth, with exports increasing at a slightly slower rate than imports. some 1 billion to the UK trade account. The UK may experience a 5 billion boost to net trade as a result of the oil price. -15.0-2 our investment outlook has improved slightly. UK Economic Outlook March 2015 Page 9

Table 4 UK GDP (E) Expenditure Chained Measure % Expenditure 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Households 0.5-0.1 1.5 1.7 2.1 2.5 2.5 NPIs -1.4 3.7-6.2 0.7 0.7 2.2 2.2 Government 2.3-0.3 1.5 2.0 1.8 Investment 5.9 2.3 0.7 3.4 6.8 5.4 5.2 Inventories - - - - - - - Domestic Exp 2.7 0.3 1.4 1.8 2.9 2.7 2.6 Total Exports 6.2-1.2 7.6 1.5 0.4 2.5 2.6 Gross Final Exp 3.4 2.8 1.7 2.3 2.6 2.6 Total Imports 8.7-7.1 12.1 1.4 1.8 2.6 2.7 GDP 1.9 1.6 0.7 1.7 2.6 2.9 2.8 Chart 4.3 : Domestic Expenditure % Chart 4.4 : Exports % Chart 4.5 : Imports % 5.0 1 1 4.0 7.5 7.5 3.0 5.0 5.0 2.0 2.5 2.5 1.0-2.5-2.5-1.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-5.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-5.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 UK Economic Outlook March 2015 Page 10

Chapter 5 UK Economics Growth - Investment - QES data Q4! The basis and methodology for the calculation of investment has been revised. Investment grew by 6.8% in 2014. We forecast growth of 5.4% in 2015, slowing to 5.2% in 2016. According to survey data, firms are more confident about turnover and profits. This provides more confidence about the likely path of demand and ROI over the short term. Charts 5.1 and charts 5.2. Capacity - capacity utilisation levels are returning to the levels last seen prior to the recession in 2008. Charts 5.3. Investment intentions have increased significantly in the latest survey data, particularly in the manufacturing sector 5.4. We model investment as a function of capacity utilisation and investment intentions with a lag of 4 and 2 quarters respectively. 70 Chart 5.1 Manufacturers Confidence Turnover Profits 52.5 35 17.5 0-17.5-35 -52.5-70 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 70 Chart 5.2 Service Sector Confidence Turnover Profits 52.5 35 17.5 0-17.5-35 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 50 Chart 5.3 Capacity Utilisation Service Sector Manufacturing 37.5 25 12.5 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 30 Chart 5.4 Investment Intentions Service Sector Manufacturing 22.5 15 7.5 0-7.5-15 -22.5-30 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Chart Data from Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce Quarterly Economic Survey Q4 2014. The Manchester Index - nowcasting the UK economy. UK Economic Outlook March 2015 Page 11

The Saturday Economist Chapter 6 - UK trade in goods and services heading in the wrong direction. UK Economic Outlook March 2015 Page 12

Chapter 6 UK Trade in goods and services Chart 6.1 : Trade in Goods Balance Trade in Goods and Services billion 10 Chart 6.2 : Trade in Services Chart 6.3 : Trade in Goods & Services -25.0-5 -75.0-10 -125.0 8 6 4 2-8.3-16.7-25.0-33.3-41.7-15 -5 We model exports as a function of world trade and relative prices. A model in which we find the demand terms dominant. The trade in services surplus was 78.9 billion in 2013, an increase of 6% on the prior year level. The trade in goods and services deficit increased to 34.8 billion in 2014 up from 33.7 billion in the prior year. We model imports as a function of domestic demand, or total final expenditure and a relative price term. Here the demand term is dominant with relative price inelasticity. There is little or no substitution effect. The trade in goods deficit increased to 112.6 billion in 2013. The trade in goods deficit increased to 119.9 billion 2014. Forecast to rise to 124.9 billion in 2015 and 130 billion 2016. The trade in services surplus increased to 85.1 billion in 2014. We forecast 87.2 billion in 2015 and 89.5 billion in 2016 The surplus in services will continue to offset the structural trade deficit in goods. We expect the oil dividend to improve the deficit by around 4 billion in 2015. The central forecast is for the overall deficit to increase to 37.8 billion in 2015 rising to 41.0 billion in 2016. The ongoing deficit, measured at 2% of GDP will not of itself, create a problem for sterling. The current account deficit at around 6% of GDP will however, present a challenge to sterling and growth eventually. the trade deficit will continue to disappoint. UK Economic Outlook March 2015 Page 13

Chapter 7 Labour Market Trends Chart 7.1 : Claimant Count 000 Chart 7.2 : LFS Count 000 Chart 7.3 : LFS Rate % 2,000 3,000 1 1,500 2,500 8.0 1,000 2,000 6.0 4.0 500 1,500 2.0 0 The claimant count has fallen significantly over the last twelve months as the economy grew by 1.7% (2013) and 2.6% in 2014. The reduction was 370,000 through the year, 2014 ahead of most estimates and forecasts. Over the last three months to December 2014, the claimant count has fallen by 84,000 to a level of 868,000. We forecast a further fall in the claimant count rate from an average 1.032 million in 2014 to 699,00 in 2015. 1,000 The LFS count unemployment in the final quarter of 2014 is forecast to be around 1.93 million. This is a reduction of over 400,00 over the last twelve months. We expect levels to fall to 1.8 million by the final quarter of 2015 and at least 1.6 million by the final quarter of 2016. We expect the unemployment rate (LFS basis) to fall from 5.8% at the end of 2014 to 4.8% by the end of 2015 and 4.4% by the end of 2016.. The unemployment rate is will average 6.3% in 2014, 5.5% in 2015 and 5.0% in 2016. The average rate, in the precession period was just 5.5%. On current trends our forecasts suggests spare capacity may be exhausted by the second quarter of 2015 (LFS basis). The claimant count data however, suggests the average unemployment rate of 3% in the period 2005-2008 has already been achieved. This will place additional pressure on the pay round and earnings into 2015. UK Economic Outlook March 2015 Page 14

Chapter 8 Government Borrowing Chart 8.1 : Borrowing billion Chart 8.2 : Total Debt billion Chart 8.3 : Total Debt % GDP 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2009/10 2012/13 2015/16 2018/19 1,700 1,500 1,300 1,100 900 700 2009/10 2012/13 2015/16 2018/19 90 80 70 60 50 40 2009/10 2012/13 2015/16 2018/19 Government borrowing in the twelve months to March 2014 is estimated to be 97.3 billion compared to 119.4 billion in the prior fiscal year. Following the release of the January 2015 data, the government is on track to meet the OBR target of 91.3 in financial year 2014/5. Total debt, is forecast to be just under 1.500 trillion at the end of the current financial year. Rising to 1.625 trillion at the end of 2016/17 peaking at 1.650 trillion at the end of the current forecast cycle 2018/19. As a % of GDP debt is forecast to be 80.4% at the end of the current year 2014/15 Falling to 81.1% in 2015/16, 80.7% in 2016/17 and 78.8% Information derived from OBR January 2015 data. ONS data : Public Sector Finances January 2015, released 20th February 2015. Billion 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 Borrowing 153.0 134.0 112.8 119.4 97.3 91.3 75.9 40.9 14.5-4.0-23.1 Debt 956.4 1,101.1 1,191.0 1,299.1 1,402.1 1,489 1,558 1,610 1,638 1,652 1,648.0 UK Economic Outlook March 2015 Page 15

Chapter 9 Inflation Outlook Chart 9.1 : CPI Inflation Chart 9.2 : Manufacturing Prices (O) Chart 9.3 : Manufacturing Prices (I) 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 We expect CPI inflation to average 0.8% in 2015 rising to 2.2% in 2016 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 Manufacturing prices - 0.2% in 2014, falling by -0.5% in 2015 then up 2.8%. 25.0 2 15.0 1 5.0-5.0 Input prices fell by -6.6% 2014, we forecast -9.3% in 2015 and +8.4% Chart 9.4 : Earnings Chart 9.5 : Money Supply Narrow Chart 9.6 : Money Supply M4 5.0 1 15.0 4.0 8.0 1 3.0 2.0 1.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 5.0 Earnings are expected to average 1.4% in 2014 rising to 2.8% in 2015 and 3.5% in 2016. Narrow money growth, notes and coins increased by 4.3% in 2014. We expect growth of 5.0% in 2015 slowing to 4.6% in 2016. -5.0 Broad money is expected to have increased by 3.7% in 2014, rising to 4.0% in 2015. UK Economic Outlook March 2015 Page 16

Chapter 10 Interest rates - base rates and gilt yields Chart 10.1 UK Base Rates Chart 10.2 10 year Gilt Rates 2.50 HIgher event Base Case 5.00 2.00 4.00 1.50 3.00 1.00 2.00 0.50 1.00 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 We expect UK base rates to remain on hold through the first half of 2015 there after rising to 1% by the end of the year and 2% by the end of 2016. Gilt yields have rallied from the sub 2% lows in 2013. We expect yields to return to fair value 4.5% within the forecast period by the end of 2017. Table 10 - Base rates and Gilt Yields 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Base 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.00 2.25 2.50 Gilts 2.2 2.0 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.1 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.5 UK Economic Outlook March 2015 Page 17

Appendix 1 Gross domestic product : expenditure at current market prices : ONS C1 UK Economic Outlook March 2015 Page 18

Appendix 2 Gross domestic product : chained volume measure : ONS C2 UK Economic Outlook March 2015 Page 19

Appendix 3 Gross domestic product : chained volume measure : ONS B1 UK Economic Outlook March 2015 Page 20

Appendix 4 Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, Inflation and Labour Market Data UK Economic Outlook March 2015 Page 21

Appendix 5 Economic Forecast Overview Outturn 2010 Outturn 2011 Outturn 2012 Outturn 2013 Outurn 2014 Forecast 2015 Forecast 2016 GDP Real Growth % 1.6 1.2 0.3 1.7 2.6 2.9 2.8 GDP Levels (2011 = 100) 98.3 10 100.7 102.2 104.9 108.1 111.1 GDP(E) at market prices Bill 1,558.4 1,617.7 1,655.4 1,713.1 1,787.8 1,873.1 1,962.5 Household Consumption 0.5-0.1 1.5 1.7 2.1 2.5 2.5 Business Investment 5.9 2.3 0.7 3.4 6.8 5.4 5.2 Government Consumption 2.3-0.3 1.5 2.0 1.8 Domestic Expenditure 2.7 0.3 1.4 1.8 2.9 2.7 2.6 Exports 6.2-1.2 7.6 1.5 0.4 2.5 2.6 Imports 8.7-7.1 12.1 1.4 1.8 2.6 2.7 Net Trade % GDP current -2.4-1.5-2.1-2.0-1.8-1.9-2.0 Inflation CPI 3.3 4.5 2.9 2.6 1.5 0.8 2.2 Labour Market Employment Millions 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.9 30.6 31.1 31.5 Average Earnings 2.4 2.4 1.4 1.5 1.4 2.3 2.8 LFS unemployment rate 7.9 8.1 7.9 7.6 6.3 5.7 5.1 Claimant Count Millions 1.50 1.53 1.59 1.42 1.03 0.70 - The forecast is broadly consistent with the Second Estimate of GDP Q4 2014 released by the ONS on the 26th February 2015. UK Economic Outlook March 2015 Page 22

About the Author John Ashcroft is author of the weekly Saturday Economist and Chief Economist for Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce. He is Chief Executive of pro.manchester, a member of the AGMA Business Leadership Council, the Council of the GM Chamber of Commerce and a visiting professor at Manchester Metropolitan University. Educated at the London School of Economics, with a PhD in economics, his specialist subjects include economics, corporate strategy, business modelling and social media. Economics specialisms include the UK balance of payments, international trade, interest rates and exchange rates modelling. John Ashcroft (PhD) BSc.(Econ) FRSA, CBIM Check out the web site, the Saturday Economist. com and sign up for FREE weekly updates. The Saturday Economist Where economics means business and analysis makes sense John Ashcroft and Company experience worth sharing. Join me on Twitter @jkaonline and LinkedIn John Ashcroft The forecast is broadly consistent with the Second Estimate of GDP Q4 2014 released by the ONS on the 26th February 2015. UK Economic Outlook March 2015 Page 23

UK Economic Outlook March 2015 Page 24