The Lessons of 2017 Perspective from the World Bank Group Barbuda Dominica Hurricane Irma Hurricane Maria Rebuild, Rethink, Resilience: Lessons for economic and security partnerships following after the 2017 hurricane season Washington DC, March 5, 2018
The 2017 Hurricane Season The 2017 Hurricane Season 17 named Storms Total estimated damages close to $ 300 billion Dominica suffered estimated damages of more than $ 1.1 billion over 200% of it s GDP The NEW NORMAL? Hurricanes are stronger and more frequent? Hurricane Irma went from a Cat 2 to Cat 5 hurricane in 6-8 hours, 2 hurricane 4 5 in the span of 2 weeks
The frequency and intensity of hurricanes hitting the Caribbean has been increasing overtime Source: EM-DAT: The Emergency Events Database - Universite catholique de Louvain (UCL) - CRED, D. Guha-Sapir - www.emdat.be, Brussels, Belgium 3
Hurricanes slow down growth in the long term and cause significant infrastructure damages and loss of human lives Hurricanes and Impact on Growth (1970-2008) Average Annual Losses and Deaths Caused by Hurricanes: 1993-2012 (#) = Global Ranking Source: Hsiang and Jina (2014) Source: Global Climate Risk Index 2014, Germanwatch 4
Lessons: Building Resilience Physical Infrastructure - Supporting laws in Grenada and Jamaica that apply updated Building Codes - Training of informal sector contractors and masons in resilient construction techniques - Supporting renewable energy projects in the region Fiscal - Creating fiscal buffers to withstand external shocks: fiscal rules in Grenada; disaster contingency funds in Grenada, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines Financial - Supporting CCRIF and working to expand the footprint of private insurance Data and Hydrometeorlogy - Work with regional institutions and WMO to improve weather modelling and forecasting and early warning systems Natural resilience - Supporting OECS countries to establish marine protected areas and coastal management plans - Harnessing the "blue economy to capture higher value, generate better jobs and better manage natural infrastructure the first line of defense against extreme weather events
Lessons: Partnerships Partnerships with combined with strong leadership by governments have led to rapid impact and damage assessments Partnerships traditional and new bringing in private and non-government sector: Clinton Initiative; Caribbean Climate-Smart Coalition
Bank Response and Commitment to Risk Reduction and Building resilience Bank worked with the EU, UN, CDB and regional partners to help Governments with damage and loss assessments in Antigua & Barbuda and Dominica The Bank has an active portfolio of Disaster Vulnerability Reduction and Resilience Projects in the region with close to $ 400 million and a number of new operations in the works - $$$ (Dominica). Approach and instruments: Resilient infrastructure building codes and standards Prevention: hydromet capacities, coastal management Fiscal and financial CCRIF, CERC, CAT DDO (DR, SLU), other insurance, budgeting social disaster adapted safety nets (Jamaica)
Annexes 8
The World Bank s Approach to Disaster Response Has Evolved Over Time (DRM Program) 1970 1999 2000 2009 2010 2017 Understanding Risk Hazard Analyses, Spatial Data Mgmt. & Country Disaster Risk Profiles Risk Reduction DRM Project in St. Lucia (US$10.5M) Slope Stabilization, Flood Mitigation, Resilient Reconstruction, etc. Preparedness Shelter Assessments, Prioritization and Retrofitting Financial Protection CCRIF Established (~US$ 70M) Contingent Emergency Response Components, Cat-DDO etc. Resilient Recovery Emergency Recovery Projects in 3 Countries (US$18.9M) Emergency Recovery Projects in 3 Countries (US$46.9M) Support with Damage and Loss Assessments & PDNA Capacity building ~ US$ 19 M ~ US$ 127 M + US$ 600 M FROM MANAGING EMERGENCIES TO MANAGING RISK AND REDUCING DAMAGES & LOSSES
World Bank Response for Resilience Building and Risk Reduction Assessing Risk: Development of Hazard Maps, Datainformed decision making such as implemented in Haiti Reducing Risk: Rehabilitation of Schools and Hospitals, Slope Stabilization, Coastal and River Defense, DRM policy development, such as in the Disaster Vulnerability Reduction Projects (DVRP) in the Caribbean Preparedness: Assessment and Retrofitting of Emergency Shelters, Mapping Emergency Response Procedures, as in the school cyclone shelters in Bangladesh and India Resilient Recovery: Damage and Loss Assessments, Post Disaster Recovery Planning embedded in the entire DRM program and infrastructure sectors Risk Financing: CCRIF, Cat DDOs, Development of Risk Financing Strategies, Emergency Recovery Loans, such as the recent CAT-DDO for the Dominican Republic 10
World Bank Response to Strengthen Fiscal Sustainability Fiscal discipline is as important for debt sustainability as building resilience for disaster response Countries can make progress on building fiscal buffers through stronger fiscal rules coupled with saving funds (Grenada is a good example). Policy-based budget support operations on strengthening fiscal discipline in the region (Jamaica, Grenada, St Vincent & the Grenadines) 11