POLICE AND CRIME COMMISSIONER FOR GREATER MANCHESTER REVENUE BUDGET AND CAPITAL PROGRAMME 2014-2015 18th FEBRUARY 2014 TONY LLOYD Police and Crime Commissioner for Greater Manchester
2014-2015 REVENUE BUDGET AND CAPITAL PROGRAMME INDEX Foreword by the Police and Crime Commissioner 3 Page Section 1 The 2014-2015 Revenue Budget Proposals and Revenue Strategic Financial Outlook (SFO) 5 Section 2 Balances 10 Section 3 The Precept 13 Section 4 The 2014-2015 Capital Programme and Capital Strategic Financial Outlook (SFO) 14 Section 5 Appendices 16 2
FOREWORD I have a statutory duty to determine my precept proposals and revenue budget proposals by 1st March each year. This report includes my proposals for 2014-15 and indications of my budget proposals for future years. The key points of these proposals include: A precept for 2014-15 of 152.30 per band D property (an increase of 2.97 per annum) this equates to just 2.93 per week. This will continue to be one of the lowest precepts in the country. I estimate that from the beginning of the CSR period in 2011-12 to 2017-18 I will have had to make budget savings of 236m. I will maintain the number of PCSOs at the level previously funded by the NPF. I am committed to effective working with partner agencies e.g. joint working with the NHS on issues like mental health. In 2014-15 my budget allows for the recruitment of: 50 probationary officers 170 operational support staff 50 apprentices However, this sits in the context of a reduction in government funding of 14.750 million compared to 2013-14 on a like for like basis, and the loss of 314 police officers. 2013-14 has seen Greater Manchester Police continue to improve its performance in reducing and solving crime. In addition to its normal operations GMP has also had a number of significant and major investigations during the year. The Government has provided no details of funding levels for Police and Crime Commissioners 2015-16 budgets. This lack of information makes it difficult for me to plan, with any degree of certainty, in the medium term. 2. This report is one of the most important documents which I put forward during the course of the year. Its purpose is to set out my aspirations for the coming year, taking into account the likely resources available, identified priorities and the impact on the Police and Crime Plan. 3. Sections 1 to 4 of this report deal with the different aspects of the budget in more detail. Section 5 comprises the appendices to the report, containing supporting information for issues included in the main report. 4. BACKGROUND DOCUMENTS Background documents to this report are: - (i) Various Government Settlement letters, reports and precept referendum letters. (ii) Comprehensive Spending Review (CSR) 2013. 3
(iii) (iv) Various reports to the Commissioner, the Association of Greater Manchester Authorities (AGMA) plus letters and reports from the ten districts. Guidance note on Local Authority Reserves and Balances - Chartered Institute of Public Finance and Accountancy (CIPFA). (v) Local Government Finance Act 1992. (vi) Local Government Act 2003. (vii) Localism Act 2011. (viii) Police Reform and Social Responsibility Act 2011. 4
1. INTRODUCTION SECTION 1: THE 2014-2015 REVENUE BUDGET PROPOSALS AND REVENUE STRATEGIC FINANCIAL OUTLOOK (SFO) 1.1 On 18th December 2013 the 2014-2015 Provisional Settlement was announced in Parliament and details were released to Police and Crime Commissioners. The final settlement was announced on 5th February 2014. 1.2 The Government has continued with its Council Tax Freeze Grant policy, but, like the vast majority of Police and Crime Commissioners, I could not accept the grant for 2014-15 and have had to raise the precept by 2.97 per annum (1.99% rounded). This will generate an additional 2.0m. Faced with the budgetary deficit I have acceptance of the grant would not provide the ongoing stability needed to protect the policing model. I have taken this decision to minimise the level of cuts to policing in the current and future years. 2. NATIONAL POLICE REVENUE AND CAPITAL SETTLEMENTS 2014-15 2.1 The overall police funding settlement for England and Wales will be 8.479bn for 2014-15. Of this total the Home Secretary has taken funding from local police areas to finance projects including: Police Innovation Fund Independent Police Complaints Commission Her Majesty s Inspectorate of Constabulary (HMIC) The City of London Police 2.3 In addition to the above 120.0m will be distributed as capital funding. The National Settlement is detailed in Appendix 1. 2.4 The Government has provided no details of funding levels for Police and Crime Commissioners 2015-16 budgets. The lack of information in respect of future funding levels makes it more difficult for me to financially plan in the medium term and I have therefore taken a prudent view on revenue forecasts and balances. 3. LOCAL BACKGROUND TO THE 2014-2015 REVENUE BUDGET PROPOSALS 3.1 Following review of my proposals by the Police and Crime Panel I have a statutory duty to formally set a balanced budget. The predicted shortfall in funding over the four year period 2014-15 to 2017-18 is estimated to be 136.8m. This is in addition to savings made in previous years which focussed on back office and support to policing functions, which were designed to try and minimise any adverse impact on frontline services. 3.2 The final funding settlement was announced in February 2014 and the assumptions I have made on the precept have resulted in a savings requirement for 2014-15 of 13.600m. 4 DETAILED ISSUES 4.1 I have agreed with GMP plans to deliver the major part of the savings required to balance the budget during the next four years. The contribution that these planned savings make in reducing the shortfall can be seen in the table below: 5
2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 m m m m Cumulative savings requirement 13.6 55.7 100.6 136.8 Less identified savings Police Officer Turnover (7.7) (24.8) (45.4) (67.7) Police Staff Vacancy Factor (2.6) (1.2) (1.5) (1.7) Removal of 6 match funded PCSO posts (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) Forensic Sciences (1.1) (1.3) (1.5) (1.6) Total cumulative identified savings (11.5) (27.5) (48.5) (71.3) Funding required from balances (2.1) 0 0 0 Cumulative savings to be identified 0 28.1 52.1 65.5 4.2 The following key budget assumptions have been made in developing the savings strategy for the next four years Formula grant reductions of 3.3%, 4.3%, 2.0% and 2.0% Precept increases of 1.99% in 2014-15 followed by 1.0% pa Pay awards of 1%, 1%, 2.5% and 2.5% Nil general price inflation Police staff casual vacancy factor 5.2% in 2014-15 and 3.8% thereafter Police officer wastage of 1,494 over the period Police student officer recruitment of 440 over the period Net Police officer wastage is 1,054 over the period Police staff recruitment of 170 over the period Apprentice recruitment of 50 over the period Further details are shown in Appendix 2. A summary of my settlement data is shown in Appendix 3. My budget for 2014-15 compared to last year is set out in Appendix 4. 5. BUDGET ISSUES 5.1 Working with our partner agencies The successful delivery of the Police and Crime plan is dependent upon effective partnership working. The new policing model will allow changes to be made to the way we work with other agencies (e.g. the proposal to improve joint working with the NHS to tackle drug and alcohol problems). It will allow us to work together to support troubled families and maintains our commitment to working with schools and youth groups to support young people. We will also be working to further develop our police cadet scheme. Support services are by definition there to provide support to policing. As we work with our partner agencies in what have become to be known as frontline services, it is natural that we 6
should also start to work more closely with them in the provision of support services. This has started with agencies operating out of the same buildings and beginning with design and print and fleet services; we are currently working to roll out this model into other shared service arrangements. 5.2 Prioritisation of Resources The budget quantifies the overall funding envelope which will be available to myself and GMP to resource policing services in support of the Police and Crime Plan. It goes without saying that the appropriate distribution of those resources is critical to its success. Whilst the new policing model is the main vehicle through which GMP will make its contribution to the delivery of the Plan, I will prioritise the distribution of resources which have been made available to address particular pressures. The budget for 2014-15 will allow GMP to bring in new support posts which will take some of the burden off operational officers. Though much work has been done to achieve the optimum balance between the number of police officers and police staff, the model is not yet where we want it to be and work continues to move warranted officers out of jobs that do not require warranted powers. The budget will also provide more administrative and technical support as reductions are made in some specialist policing areas. More specifically, to help GMP to continue to drive down crime and to tackle anti social behaviour the budget, will allow: The recruitment of 170 new support posts to remove administrative work from police officers to ensure they spend more of their time visible to the public and directly fighting crime The continued funding of 826 PCSOs The recruitment of 50 probationary officers The recruitment of 50 apprentices However, this sits in the context of a reduction in government funding of 14.750 million, compared to 2013-14 on a like for like basis, and the loss of 314 police officers. In addition, savings of 136.8m are forecast to be required by March 2018. Savings of 71.3m have already been identified with the majority coming from a net reduction in police officer numbers by 1,054 over the period. My key capital spending priority in 2014-15 and the medium term will be the Information Services Transformation Programme. The existing IS infrastructure is not fit for purpose and going forward it is not sustainable to keep the current systems. Major modernisation is required together with an upgrade of core systems and applications. The programme will result in the transformation of policing operations and support services. Police officers will be equipped to work in a multi agency environment and work collaboratively with local partner agencies. New technology will reduce the demand on support staff. Further benefits include improving business intelligence and supporting an agile workforce. 7
6. RISK ASSESSMENT 6.1 An assessment of the major financial risks associated with the 2014-15 budget has been undertaken. These are highlighted below: 6.1.1 Pay - the budget assumes 1.0% pay increases for 2014-15 and 2015-16. The assumed rate for the following 2 years is 2.5% per annum. Risk in this area is considered to be minimal. 6.1.2 Additional grant receipts above those included in the budget, which require additional expenditure to secure the funding. These would not be accepted unless budgets could be realigned elsewhere. 6.1.3 There are no contingencies in the revenue budget to meet unforeseen circumstances. 6.1.4 There is no budget provision for a large scale major incident. Were such an incident to occur then possible funding would be from: Insurance Bellwin Scheme Specific grants General reserves 6.1.5 Material changes to the capital programme. The capital programmes for 2014-15 and future years are substantially less than those which have been approved previously. If major expenditure arises due to the unexpected loss of a building then the Commissioner has adequate insurance cover in place. 6.1.6 The revenue budget includes interest earned on investments. The budget for 2014-15 has already been reduced in the light of the current economic downturn. 6.1.7 Failure to fully implement planned budget cuts. 6.1.8 It is estimated that the implications of the stage 2 transfer of responsibilities to the Chief Constable will be cost neutral. 7. COUNCIL TAX FREEZE GRANT 7.1 The spending review announced the introduction of Council Tax Freeze Grant payable to Authorities who did not increase council tax (including Precept) in 2011-12. The amount of grant was equivalent to a 2.5% increase in funding, 2.900m for GMPA in 2011-12. The grant was accepted by all Councils and Authorities and has been consolidated into future years funding. 7.2 A further one year grant was introduced in 2012-13. For former police authorities the amount receivable was calculated on a notional 3% precept increase, equivalent to 3.500m for Greater Manchester. This amount has not been consolidated into 2013-14 or funding for future years. The decision by GMPA to accept this grant exacerbated the Government cuts to GMP S funding base. By 2015-16 GMP will have lost 6.4m per annum from its base budget as a result of GMP accepting the freeze grant. This, together with contribution to the floor, had 8
deprived GMP of funding of 13.3m. This would fund 419 police officer probationers or 438 PCSO s. 7.3 In 2014-15 those commissioners who do not increase the precept for their area will be eligible for a grant equal to a 1% increase in the precept. Greater Manchester is eligible to receive 1.208m. I could not accept the freeze grant in order to protect the level of policing in the current and future years and to ensure that the funding losses described above are not repeated. 8. COUNCIL TAX REFERENDUMS 8.1 A new chapter, 4ZA, has been inserted into the 1992 Act by the Localism Act 2011 and deals with referendums relating to council tax increases. 8.2 For 2014-15 the Secretary of State has set a referendum threshold equivalent to a 2% increase in the council tax or precept. There are no exceptions to this rule. 8.3 A billing authority or Police and Crime Commissioner must determine, based on the announced principles, if their council tax or precept increase is excessive. If so arrangements must be made to hold a referendum and notify the Secretary of State. 8.4 Under Section 52ZK(1) of the 1992 Act a Police and Crime Commissioner must notify each of his billing authorities if his precept is excessive and the billing authorities are then required to hold a referendum. The costs of the referendum must be met by the Police and Crime Commissioner. 8.5 My proposals for 2014-15 are within the current referendum threshold. 9. APPENDICES 9.1 Appendix 1 summarises 2014-15 National Police Settlement data. 9.2 Appendix 2 summarises my budget for 2014-2015 and Strategic Financial Outlook (SFO). 9.3 Appendix 3 sets out my Settlement data. 9.4 Appendix 4 sets out my 2014-15 budget compared to the previous year. 9
2012-2013 REVENUE BUDGET SECTION 2: BALANCES 1. GENERAL FUND 1.1 I have set my balances strategy as: a target General Fund level to be set annually based on an assessment of risk a formal review of balances at budget and final accounts stages 1.2 There is no prescriptive guidance on the minimum (or maximum) level of general reserves required, either as an absolute amount or a percentage of the budget. 1.3 The Chief Finance Officer should take account of the strategic, operational and financial risk facing the Commissioner when recommending a minimum level of balances to me, and that level can be expressed in cash terms or as a percentage of the budget. 1.4 The General Fund is held to: Provide a working balance to help cushion the impact of uneven cash flows and avoid unnecessary temporary borrowing act as a contingency to cushion the impact of unexpected events or emergencies 1.5 Factors to be considered in setting the level of General Fund are: cash flow requirements treatment of inflation and interest rates estimates of the level and timing of capital receipts the treatment of demand led pressures the treatment of planned savings/efficiencies financial risks inherent in any significant new funding partnership, major outsourcing arrangement or major capital development the adequacy of other funds, e.g., insurance provision 1.6 A risk assessment has been undertaken to establish what the minimum General Fund level should be. The assessment is not an exact science and views may differ on what constitutes key financial risks and their evaluation. Taking into account the factors listed in paragraph 1.5, the assessment indicates minimum and maximum levels of 11.015m and 15.716m respectively during 2014-2015. The calculation is set out in Appendix 5. 1.7 The General Fund Balance at 31 st March 2014 is forecast to be 13.459m. 10
1.8 The forecast is within the assessed range. In the past part of the General Fund balance has been used to fund budget savings that could not be fully realised within a financial year. Another option could be to use balances to fund investment required to deliver longer-term efficiencies. These are legitimate short term options but the Chief Finance Officer s advice would be not to finance recurrent expenditure from reserves. The amount held in cash balances contribute to investment income received and is credited to the Income and Expenditure Account. 1.9 The 2014/15 year s budget assumptions include the use of 2.100m from General Fund to fund budget savings that cannot be fully realised within the year. This will result in an estimated balance of 11.359m which is marginally above the minimum level required. Forecasts beyond 2014/15 do not include any use of General Fund balances. 2. EARMARKED REVENUE RESERVES 2.1 Reserves are created for specific purposes only and returned to General Fund if no longer required. They arise either where monies have been set aside or anticipated expenditure has been postponed 2.2 The Bank Holiday reserve is funded from monies set aside from revenue. Transfers will be made into or out of this reserve on a budgeted basis. 2.3 Earmarked Revenue Reserves are forecast to be 30.213m at 31 st March 2014, consisting of:- m PCC Transformation Reserve 20.000 PCC Community Crime Fund 5.000 PCC Innovation Reserve 2.997 PCSO Reserve 1.006 Bank Holidays 0.720 Body Armour 0.391 Public Order Shields 0.099 30.213 During 2014-15 I intend to allocate a substantial amount of my reserves to projects that transform policing and GMP with a view to driving out costs from the organisation. 2.4 The balance is currently forecast to be 30.244m at 31 st March 2015, consisting of:- PCC Transformation Reserve 20.000 PCC Community Crime Fund 5.000 PCC Innovation Reserve 2.997 PCSO Reserve 1.006 Bank Holidays 0.720 Body Armour 0.405 Public Order Shields 0.116 30.244 I expect that my reserves at 31st March 2015 will be substantially lower than estimated above after costs relating to the allocation referred to above are finalised. m 11
3. ASSURANCE STATEMENT 3.1 As required by Section 25 of the Local Government Act 2003, the Chief Finance Officer is satisfied that the proposed level of financial reserves as summarised in Appendix 6 of this report are adequate. 4. APPENDICES 4.1 Appendix 5 is my General Fund risk assessment. 4.2 Appendix 6 summarises my General and Earmarked Balances. 12
SECTION 3: THE PRECEPT 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 I am a major preceptor and empowered to issue a precept under section 40 of the Local Government Finance Act 1992. 1.2 Section 42A of the Local Government Finance Act 1992 requires me to calculate my council tax requirement for each financial year including the revenue costs which flow from capital financing decisions. I must then set a precept sufficient to meet my expenditure after taking into account my sources of income. This is known as the balanced budget requirement. 2. COUNCIL TAX BASE FOR 2014-2015 2.1 A council tax base of 677,348 Band D 2 person equivalent properties has been calculated, being the aggregate of the tax bases calculated by the Districts. An analysis of the returns from the Districts is attached at Appendix 7. 3. PRECEPT LEVEL 3.1 The proposals set out in this report result in a council tax requirement of 103,160,100 and a Precept of 152.30 per band D 2 person equivalent dwelling as follows: 3.2 R = council tax requirement T = Taxbase R 103,160,100 T 677,348 = 152.30 (rounded) the proposed weekly cost to Band D charge payers is 2.93. 4. CONSULTATION 4.1 The level of the precept was considered and supported by the Police and Crime Panel at its meeting on 31st January 2014. 5. ASSURANCE STATEMENT 5.1 As required by Section 25 of the Local Government Act 2003 the Chief Finance Officer is satisfied that the estimates made to establish the Commissioner s council tax requirement as set out in Appendix 8 of this report are robust. 5.2 I have reviewed and accepted the positive assurance statement made by my Chief Finance Officer when setting my Precept and balanced budget 7. APPENDICES 7.1 Appendix 7 shows the returns made by the Districts and the basic amount of tax at an increase of 2.97 or 1.99% (rounded). 7.2 Appendix 8 is the formal precept resolution. 13
SECTION 4: THE 2014-2015 CAPITAL PROGRAMME PROPOSALS AND CAPITAL STRATEGIC FINANCIAL OUTLOOK (SFO) 1. THE 2014-2015 CAPITAL PROGRAMME 1.1 My key capital spending priority in 2014/15 and the medium term will be the Information Services Transformation Programme. The existing IS Infrastructure is not fit for purpose and going forward it is not sustainable to keep the current systems. Major modernisation is required together with an upgrade of core systems and applications. The programme will result in the transformation of policing operations and support services. Police officers will be equipped to work in a multi agency environment and work collaboratively with local partner agencies. New technology will reduce the demand on support staff. Further benefits include improving business intelligence and supporting an agile workforce. 1.2 My programme also allows for: A continuation of the vehicle replacement programme Building infrastructure works Information Services projects in addition to the Transformation Programme New and replacement equipment 1.3 My Capital Programme for 2014-15 is summarised below:- Information Services (including Transformation Programme) 17.321 Business Support 4.921 Change 3.357 Other 1.457 Total 27.056 The programme excludes any carry forwards that I may approve at a later date. 1.4 The Capital resources available to me in 2014-2015 are: Home Office Capital grant 5.526 Capital receipts 0.219 Borrowing 21.311 Total 27.056 m m 2. THE 2015-2016 TO 2017-18 INDICATIVE CAPITAL PROGRAMMES 2.1 My proposed capital programmes for 2015-16 to 2017-18 are summarised below: 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 m m m Information Services 20.975 12.932 5.747 Business Support 8.596 8.655 3.718 Change 0.606 1.746 0.500 Other 0.793 0.446 0.218 Total 30.970 23.779 10.183 14
2.2 Resources are estimated to be available as follows: 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 m m m Home Office Capital grant 5.526 5.526 5.526 Unsupported borrowing 25.444 18.253 4.657 Total 30.970 23.779 10.183 2.3 I will keep the proposed programmes and potential funding under continuous review 15
SECTION 5 : APPENDICES TO THE REPORT Appendix No. Title Page The 2014-2015 Revenue Budget Proposals 1 National data 2014-15 17 2 The 2014-15 budget and Strategic Financial Outlook (SFO) 18 3 Formula funding and specific grants 21 4 The 2014-15 budget variation between years 22 Balances 5 2014-2015 Revenue Budget General Fund risk assessment 23 6 Forecast Balances 24 The Precept 7 Council tax base, Collection Fund balance and basic amount of tax 25 8 Formal Resolution - Precept 2014-2015 26 16
Appendix 1 NATIONAL DATA 2014-15 m Total general funding Comprising: Police core settlement 4,583 of which Home Office Police Main Grant 4,407 of which MOPAC national, international and capital city grant 176 DCLG 2,949 of which formula funding 2,924 of which Ordnance Survey 2 Of which Legacy Council Tax Freeze Grant 23 Welsh Government 140 Total Home Office Specific Grants (rounded) 728 Comprising: Welsh top up 13 Counter Terrorism Specific Grant 564 Police Innovation Fund 50 National Police Co-ordination Centre 2 Independent Police Complaints Commission (for the transfer of integrity 18 functions) College of Policing (for direct entry schemes) 3 City of London Capital City Grant 2 HMIC for regular inspections 9 Legacy Council Tax Freeze Grants: of which Council Tax 11/12 Freeze Grant 59 of which Council Tax 13/14 Freeze Grant 7 PFI 73 Contingency 6 Total Government Funding 8,479 % cash change in total government funding -3.30% Capital Funding 2014-15 m Capital grant 109 National Police Air Service 10 Special capital grant 1 Total Capital Funding 120 17
Appendix 2 STRATEGIC FINANCIAL OUTLOOK (SFO) 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 m m m m 2013/14 Budget Requirement 571.5 571.5 571.5 571.5 Commitments and cost pressures Police Officer pay (3.4) 6.6 20.7 33.6 Police Staff pay 3.7 5.9 8.1 12.2 PCSO pay (0.1) 0.4 0.9 2.0 Flexible Resources (3.0) (3.0) (3.0) (3.0) Non-Recurrent PCSO Innovation Fund (2.1) (2.1) (2.1) (2.1) Non-Recurrent Challenger Funding (1.0) (1.0) (1.0) (1.0) Non-Recurrent funding to support vulnerable people investigations (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) Non-Recurrent Force Tasking funding (1.0) (1.0) (1.0) (1.0) Non-Recurrent funding for bank of detectives to support Serious Crimes Division (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) Community Safety Funding transferred to Formula Grant 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 Discontinuation of contracted out national insurance 0 0 10.4 10.4 Triennial review of police staff pension employer contribution rates 1.7 3.4 5.1 5.7 Change to pension rules police staff overtime now pensionable 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 Transfer of responsibility from Home Office drug testing consumables 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Reduction in pay inflation assumption in 2015/16 from 2.5% to 1% 0 (3.8) (6.5) (6.5) Reduction in interest received on investments 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Prudential borrowing associated with committed capital expenditure (2.4) (2.8) (3.6) (4.1) Uninsured loss provision employers and public liability 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 Police national database 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Centrally funded posts (0.4) (0.6) (1.0) (1.1) Other changes (0.8) 0 1.4 2.7 Budget Requirement (excluding new investments) 570.4 581.4 608.1 627.4 New Investments Recruit 50 probationers in 2014/15 and 58 in 2015/16 0.5 2.0 3.2 9.3 Recruit 170 additional support staff to support the front line and 50 apprentices 1.9 7.8 8.5 8.8 Flexible resource budget to support change programme 1.4 0 0 0 Overtime related to increasing demand in PPD 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Prudential borrowing associated with future year capital programme 0.5 5.5 10.6 13.7 Total new investments 4.4 15.5 22.4 32.0 Budget Requirement (including new investments) 574.7 596.8 630.5 659.4 18
2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 m m m m Funding Formula funding (432.5) (412.6) (403.2) (395.0) Council tax support grant (21.5) (21.5) (21.5) (21.5) Council tax freeze grant 2011/12 (2.9) (2.9) 0 0 Government funding (456.9) (437.0) (424.7) (416.5) Precept (103.2) (104.2) (105.2) (106.2) Collection fund surplus (1.1) 0 0 0 Total funding (561.2) (541.2) (529.9) (522.7) Cumulative savings required 13.6 55.7 100.6 136.8 Cumulative identified savings Police officer turnover (7.7) (24.8) (45.4) (67.7) Additional police staff pay vacancy factor (2.6) (1.2) (1.5) (1.7) 6 PCSO posts removed (match funding) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) Forensic sciences (1.1) (1.3) (1.5) (1.6) Total cumulative identified savings (11.5) (27.5) (48.5) (71.3) Cumulative savings still to be identified 2.1 28.1 52.1 65.5 Use of general reserves (2.1) Cumulative savings still to be identified after use of general reserves 0 28.1 52.1 65.5 Key budget/sfo assumptions 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 1 Formula Grant (excluding council tax support grant) (3.3%) (4.3%) (2.0%) (2.0%) 2 Precepts 1.99% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3 Pay awards 1.0% 1.0% 2.5% 2.5% 4 General price inflation 0% 0% 0% 0% 5 Police officer wastage (includes 32 ill health retirements per annum) 314 371 375 434 6 Student officer recruitment 50 58 0 332 7 Police staff recruitment 170 0 0 0 8 Apprentice recruitment 50 0 0 0 9 Police staff vacancy factor (5.2%) (3.8%) (3.8%) (3.8%) 10 Triennial review of employer police staff pension contributions 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 11 Base Commissioning Fund of 5.1m will be set for 2014/15 onwards. 12 0.4m of savings in the cost of the PCC will be retained by him and added to the Base Commissioning Fund. 13 Flexible Resources in 2014/15 will fund ongoing commitments. Any future requirements will have to be funded via bids from the Home Office Innovation Fund or the PCC Transformation Fund. 14 Displaced staff will be re-deployed. Where this is not possible redundancy payments will be funded from General Reserves. 15 There will be no PCSOs joint funded with Local Authorities from 1/4/14. 19
16 Bootle Street Police Station to be closed from 1/7/14. Each month that it is kept open beyond this will cost 0.039m. 17 An investment of 0.200m has been included for Public Protection Branch to recognise the significant increase in demands in this area of work. 18 Funding of 0.940m has been received from the Home Office Innovation Fund for Operation Challenger. This is not included in this budget. 19 Final guidance on implementation of outstanding Winsor 2 items is awaited. Estimates have been made where possible. 20 2.0m is available for Force Tasking (a reduction of 1.0m from 2013/14). 21 The impact of Regional Collaborations are only included in the budget once the details are finalised. 22 No savings have been included in respect of IS Transformation. 23 Further IPCC top slices of 1.0m per annum are expected in 2015/16 and 2016/17. 24 No change to formula or damping rules during the SFO period. 25 2011/12 Freeze Grant will be discontinued at the end of 2015/16. 26 Hillsborough funding will end in 2015/16. 27 Contracting out of the State pension scheme will no longer be possible from 1/4/16 resulting in significantly increased employers national insurance contributions. 20
Appendix 3 FORMULA FUNDING AND SPECIFIC GRANTS PCC DATA 2014-2015 2013-2014 2014-15 Variance m m m Police Grant 248.267 242.790 (5.477) Formula funding 199.000 189.659 (9.341) Council Tax Freeze Grant (2011-12) 2.900 2.900 0 Localisation of Council Tax support 21.488 21.556 0.068 Total funding 471.655 456.905 (14.750) Other grants Community Safety Grant 6.817 0.871 (5.946) Security 4.666 4.713 0.047 Private Finance Initiative (PFI) 5.315 5.315 0 Other 3.768 20.131 16.363 Asset Incentivisation 1.283 1.207 (0.076) Counter Terrorism grant 21.194 20.885 (0.309) 43.043 53.122 10.079 21
Appendix 4 2014-15 BUDGET VARIATIONS BETWEEN 2013-14 AND 2014-15 Original Budget 2013-14 Original Budget 2014-15 Variance m m m Police Officer Pay 361.109 352.699 (8.410) F Police Officer Related 4.129 3.712 (0.417) F Police Staff Pay 109.677 118.337 8.660 A Police Staff Related 2.149 2.562 0.413 A PCSO Pay 25.337 25.243 (0.94) F PCSO Related 0.11 0.11 0 - Police Officer Overtime 14.968 13.621 (1.347) F Police Staff Overtime 1.796 1.911 0.115 A PCSO Overtime 0.136 0.075 (0.061) F TOTAL EMPLOYEE RELATED 519.312 518.171 (1.141) F Pensions 77.634 91.647 14.013 A Premises Related 33.113 33.008 (0.105) F Supplies & Services 48.253 52.437 4.184 A Agency Payments 13.185 15.137 1.952 A Transport Related 8.965 7.920 (1.045) F Capital Financing 10.379 8.171 (2.208) F Transfer to/from Reserves 0.789 (2.111) (2.900) F Specific Grants (110.926) (135.197) (24.271) F Income and sponsorship (29.215) (28.017) 1.198 A TOTAL OTHER 52.177 42.995 (9.182) F Funding Requirement 571.489 561.166 (10.323) F Funded By: Police grant (272.654) (264.268) 8.386 A Formula funding (199.000) (192.632) 6.368 A Precept (council tax (99.423) (103.161) (3.738) F requirement) Collection Fund balance (0.412) (1.105) (0.693) F Funding (571.489) (561.166) 10.323 A Over / Underspend 0 0 0 22
Appendix 5 GENERAL FUND RISK ASSESSMENT 1 Large scale major incident G Fund amount Minimum G Fund amount Maximum m m Funding Requirement 2014-15 m Formula Funding 432.514 Council Tax Support Grant 21.486 Council Tax Freeze Grant 2011/12 2.900 Precept 103.161 Funding total 560.061 Allow 1% of funding total 5.601 5.601 2 SFO Savings Assume cumulative identified savings are not achieved by between 3% and 5%. 2.139 3.565 Assume cumulative unidentified savings are not identified by between 5% and 10%. 3.275 6.550 SUGGESTED GENERAL FUND LEVEL AT 31/3/14 11.015 15.716 Forecast level at 31/3/14 13.459 13.459 Difference between suggested and forecast levels at 31/3/14 2.444 (2.257) 23
FORECAST BALANCES Appendix 6 m GENERAL FUND Balance at 31 st March 2013 38.459 Budgeted use 2013-14 0 Forecast revenue account balance 2013-14 0 Transfer to earmarked reserves (25.000) Forecast Balance at 31 st March 2014 13.459 Budgeted use 2014-2015 (2.100) Forecast balance at 31 st March 2015 11.359 EARMARKED REVENUE Balance at 31 st March 2013 1.713 Use 2013-2014 (0.051) Additions 2013-2014 3.551 Transfer from general fund 25.000 Forecast balance at 31 st March 2014 30.213 Budgeted use 2014-15 0 Additions 2014-15 0.031 Forecast balance at 31 st March 2015 30.244 24
Appendix 7 THE PROPOSED PRECEPT COUNCIL TAX BASE, COLLECTION FUND BALANCE AND BASIC AMOUNT OF TAX 1. Council Tax Base and Collection Fund Balance Notified Tax Base 2013-2014 District Notified Tax Base 2014-2015 Surplus/(Deficit) on Collection Fund 2014-2015 69,053 Bolton 69,162 48,000 51,228 Bury 51,228 0 92,900 Manchester 98,188 495,009 50,280 Oldham 51,865 300,000 50,158 Rochdale 50,497 54,000 55,672 Salford 56,360 0 87,639 Stockport 88,534 121,549 55,606 Tameside 55,703 37,989 70,991 Trafford 71,940 40,534 82,265 Wigan 83,871 7,888 665,792 677,348 1,104,969 The notified tax base is amended to take into account the localisation of council tax support 2. Basic amount of tax calculated in accordance with Section 42B of the Local Government Finance Act 1992 Basic amount of tax = R T where R = Council tax requirement for the year T = Aggregate of Council tax bases calculated by billing authorities within the precept area Basic amount of tax = 103,160,100 677,348 = 152.30 per Band D 2 person equivalent (rounded) 25
Appendix 8 FORMAL RESOLUTION - PRECEPT 2014-2015 1. My revenue estimates for 2014-2015 are set out in this report. 2. That I have calculated the amount of 677,348 as my council tax base for the year 2014-2015, item T in the formula in Section 42B of the Local Government Finance Act, as amended (the Act), being the aggregate of the tax bases calculated by the billing authorities to which I issue precepts. 3. That my Council Tax requirement for 2014-15 be set at 103,160,100. 4. That I have calculated the following amounts for 2014-2015 in accordance with Sections 42A and 42B of the Local Government Finance Act 1992, as amended (the Act):- (a) 645,657,397 (b) 542,497,297 (c) 103,160,100 being the aggregate of the amounts which I estimate for the items set out in Section 42A 2 (a) to (d) of the Act. being the aggregate of the amounts which I estimate for the items set out in Section 42A 3 (a) and (b) of the Act. being the amount by which the aggregate at 4(a) above exceeds the aggregate at 4(b) above, in accordance with Section 42A 4 of the Act, as my council tax requirement for the year. (e) 152.30 being the amount at 4(c) above, item R in the formula in Section 42B of the Act, divided by item T (paragraph 2 above), in accordance with Section 42B of the Act, as the basic amount of my Council Tax for the year. 26
Appendix 8 (f) Valuation Bands A B C D E F G H 101.53 118.46 135.38 152.30 186.14 219.99 253.83 304.60 being the amounts given by multiplying the amount at 4(e) above by the number which, in the proportion set out in Section 5(1) of the Act, is applicable to dwellings listed in a particular valuation band divided by the number which in that proportion is applicable to dwellings listed in valuation band D, calculated by the Commissioner, in accordance with Section 47(1) of the Act, as the amounts to be taken into account for the year in respect of categories of dwellings listed in different valuation bands. (g) The amounts payable (precepts) by each billing authority are set out below, calculated as being the amounts given by multiplying the amount at 4(e) by the tax bases calculated by Districts in accordance with Section 44(1) of the Act. Amount payable by each billing authority in accordance with Section 48 of the Local Government Finance Act 1992 Amount payable = Where C x T C = basic amount of Council Tax T = individual billing Commissioner's tax base District Tax Base Basic Tax Amount Amount Payable Bolton 69,162 152.30 10,533,373 Bury 51,228 152.30 7,802,024 Manchester 98,188 152.30 14,954,032 Oldham 51,865 152.30 7,899,040 Rochdale 50,497 152.30 7,690,693 Salford 56,360 152.30 8,583,628 Stockport 88,534 152.30 13,483,728 Tameside 55,703 152.30 8,483,567 Trafford 71,940 152.30 10,956,462 Wigan 83,871 152.30 12,773,553 677,348 103,160,100 27