CMP: INR113 TP: INR180(+59%) Buy Some pricing pressure, but fundamentals are strong

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6 July 2017 Update Sector: Metals NMDC BSE SENSEX S&P CNX 31,246 9,638 Motilal Oswal values your support in the Asiamoney Brokers Poll 2017 for India Research, Sales and Trading team. We request your ballot. Stock Info Bloomberg NMDC IN Equity Shares (m) 3,164 52-Week Range (INR) 153 / 94 1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) 0/-34/3 M.Cap. (INR b) 357.5 M.Cap. (USD b) 5.5 Avg Val ( INRm)/Vol m 455 Free float (%) 25.1 Financials Snapshot (INR b) Y/E Mar 2017 2018E 2019E Sales 88.3 101.9 104.3 EBITDA 44.9 56.2 57.0 Adj. PAT 31.5 38.8 38.4 Adj. EPS (INR) 10.0 12.3 12.1 EPS Gr(%) 11.7 23.2-1.0 BV/Sh. (INR) 71.2 76.2 81.2 RoE (%) 12.8 15.1 15.5 RoCE (%) 12.2 14.7 15.1 P/E (x) 11.3 9.2 9.3 P/BV 1.6 1.5 1.4 Shareholding pattern (%) As On Mar-16 Promoter 74.9 74.9 80.0 DII 16.7 17.1 13.5 FII 4.9 4.5 3.8 Others 3.5 3.4 2.7 FII Includes depository receipts CMP: INR113 TP: INR180(+59%) Buy Some pricing pressure, but fundamentals are strong Trading at 2.8x EV/EBITDA; Re-iterate BUY Operations are strong, but book cleaning affected PAT in FY17 NMDC s business is strongly supported by robust demand growth from its key customers (JSW, Essar, RINL, etc.), high quality ore and strong supply chain. Sales increased by 24% to 35.6mt and adjusted EBITDA by 28% to INR45b in FY17. NMDC also rewarded shareholders with an impressive INR96b in the form of buyback and dividend. However, reported PAT declined 23% YoY in FY17 as the company used the strong financial performance to clean its book aggressively, providing for ~INR9b toward mine closures, capital assistance to the Indian Railways for track augmentation, and disputed debtors and service tax, which are not recurring in nature and do not impact cash flows. Depletion of treasury after buyback also affected interest income and thus PAT. Some pricing pressure, but volume growth is strong Indian iron ore prices have softened over past few months in eastern India, as exports of ore and pellets declined due to volatility in the international market. NMDC too has cut prices by INR200/t w.e.f. 1 July 2017. We have trimmed margins, but increased volumes by 2.1mt to 40.1mt for FY19E as the operations remain strong. Sales grew strongly by 18% YoY in 1QFY18E. As a result, EBITDA is reduced by 5% to INR57b for FY19E. The recently commissioned pellet plant in Karnataka is getting stable and thus will add 1.2mt of volumes. A modified pricing policy, which allows different regional pricing, has helped in strong volume growth. Valuations are factoring in high pessimism At CMP, the stock is trading at EV/EBITDA of 5.7xFY19E. If we were to adjust CWIP of INR164b toward the steel project, valuations are extremely attractive at 2.8x FY19E EV/EBITDA. NMDC s board continues to pursue divestment at its steel plant and has appointed a banker. Therefore, we believe that CWIP deserves at least book value. If Indian iron ore exports do not pick up, NMDC may need to take another price cut of INR200-300/t, which can trim EBITDA by INR12b to INR46b. Adjusted valuations will still be extremely attractive at 3.5x FY19E EV/EBITDA. Fundamentals remain strong, valuations are attractive; Reiterate Buy At conservative 59% payout v/s last five-year average of 79%, the dividend yield at 5.3% is attractive. Although there is near-term pressure on pricing, the volumes growth outlook remains robust due to the company s strong competitive advantage. Valuations are extremely attractive. We value the stock at INR180/share (59% upside), based on 6.5x EV/EBITDA FY19E and book value for CWIP. We reiterate our Buy rating. Sanjay Jain (SanjayJain@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1523 Dhruv Muchhal (Dhruv.Muchhal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1549 Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report. Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/institutional-equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

Exhibit 1: Domestic iron ore lump prices INR/t 4,500 Lumps 5-18 (Odisha) NMDC 6-40mm (CG) 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Source: MOSL, SteelMint, Company Data India pellet prices have bottomed-out. Exhibit 2: Pellet prices in India (INR/t) 5,300 4,800 4,300 3,800 3,300 2,800 Pellet (Barbil) Source: MOSL, Bloomberg Global iron ore prices are recovering on steady demand in China and improving sea-borne demand-supply fundamentals. Exhibit 3: Iron ore (China cfr) USD/t 105 90 75 60 CIF FOB 45 30 Aug-16 Source: MOSL, Bloomberg 6 July 2017 2

Exhibit 4: NMDC iron ore lumps and fines prices INR/t Fines Lumps 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,225 2,325 2,425 2,425 2,425 2,425 2,225 2,185 2,185 2,185 2,185 2,085 1,985 1,985 1,860 1,760 1,760 Exhibit 5: NMDC iron ore dispatches Dispatches - mt change yoy - % 39 17 13-5 7.7 6.7 6.5-18 -23-11 25 17 11 14 3 8.6 7.3 7.0 7.2 8.6 7.8 8.1 10.0 9.8 18 9.2 Jul-17 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 Exhibit 6: NMDC s iron ore fines realization by region INR/t 2,600 Chhattisgarh - 62% Fe fines Karnataka - 60% Fe fines 2,276 2,200 1,800 2,185 1,400 1,000 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Exhibit 7: Target price calculation Y/E March 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E EBITDA per ton (INR) 1,214 1,262 1,462 1,422 1,425 Volumes (m tons) 28.8 35.6 38.4 40.1 42.1 EBITDA 34,998 44,944 56,197 57,002 59,982 Target EV/EBITDA(x) 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 Target EV 292,133 365,282 370,516 389,883 Less: Net Debt -132,666-52,893-33,341-35,353-39,108 Add: CWIP 97,229 118,314 152,208 164,208 176,208 Less: discount to CWIP Equity Value 463,339 550,831 570,076 605,198 Target price (INR/share) 146 174 180 191 6 July 2017 3

Financials and Valuations Income Statement (INR Million) Net Sales 107,043 120,582 123,564 64,556 88,294 101,934 104,264 109,427 Change (%) -4.9 12.6 2.5-47.8 36.8 15.4 2.3 5.0 EBITDA 77,838 81,604 81,369 34,998 44,944 56,197 57,002 59,982 EBITDA Margin (%) 72.7 67.7 65.9 54.2 50.9 55.1 54.7 54.8 Depreciation 1,385 1,504 1,622 2,078 1,962 2,434 2,687 2,966 EBIT 76,452 80,100 79,747 32,920 42,982 53,763 54,316 57,016 Interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other Income 22,389 20,945 23,200 17,744 9,088 3,301 2,191 2,214 Extraordinary items -4,058 455 0-1,848-8,933 0 0 0 PBT 94,783 101,500 102,946 48,816 43,137 57,064 56,506 59,230 Tax 31,228 33,391 33,460 14,769 17,038 18,261 18,082 18,954 Tax Rate (%) 32.9 32.9 32.5 30.3 39.5 32.0 32.0 32.0 Min. Int. & Assoc. Share 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reported PAT 63,556 68,110 69,487 34,047 26,099 38,804 38,424 40,277 Adjusted PAT 66,277 67,804 69,487 35,335 31,504 38,804 38,424 40,277 Change (%) -9.2 2.3 2.5-49.1-10.8 23.2-1.0 4.8 Balance Sheet (INR Million) Share Capital 3,965 3,965 3,965 3,965 3,164 3,164 3,164 3,164 Reserves 271,145 295,918 319,353 297,146 222,026 238,049 253,693 271,190 Net Worth 275,110 299,883 323,317 301,110 225,189 241,213 256,857 274,354 Debt 0 0 0 14,970 0 0 0 0 Deferred Tax 1,045 1,073 984 1,222 6,112 6,112 6,112 6,112 Total Capital Employed 276,155 300,956 324,301 317,302 231,301 247,325 262,969 280,466 Gross Fixed Assets 26,025 28,506 29,446 37,304 39,724 43,724 47,724 51,724 Less: Acc Depreciation 13,379 14,883 16,109 18,234 20,196 22,630 25,317 28,282 Net Fixed Assets 12,647 13,623 13,337 19,070 19,528 21,094 22,407 23,442 Capital WIP 32,361 52,769 77,100 97,229 118,314 152,208 164,208 176,208 Investments 2,497 2,504 5,619 6,954 7,270 7,270 7,270 7,270 Current Assets 261,439 245,874 248,642 210,203 111,909 96,071 98,529 103,274 Inventory 6,375 6,812 6,919 6,370 5,400 5,585 5,713 5,996 Debtors 10,822 14,484 17,523 18,961 10,435 13,964 14,283 14,990 Cash & Bank 210,258 186,572 184,431 147,636 52,893 33,341 35,353 39,108 Loans & Adv, Others 33,985 38,005 39,768 37,237 43,181 43,181 43,181 43,181 Curr Liabs & Provns 32,788 13,814 20,397 16,154 25,719 29,317 29,445 29,727 Curr. Liabilities 11,094 11,092 2,263 3,244 1,988 5,585 5,713 5,996 Provisions 21,694 2,722 18,134 12,909 23,731 23,731 23,731 23,731 Net Current Assets 228,650 232,060 228,245 194,050 86,190 66,754 69,085 73,547 Total Assets 276,155 300,956 324,301 317,302 231,301 247,325 262,969 280,466 6 July 2017 4

Financials and Valuations Ratios Basic (INR) EPS 16.7 17.1 17.5 8.9 10.0 12.3 12.1 12.7 Cash EPS 17.1 17.5 17.9 9.4 10.6 13.0 13.0 13.7 Book Value 69.4 75.6 81.5 75.9 71.2 76.2 81.2 86.7 DPS 7.0 8.5 8.6 11.0 5.2 6.0 6.0 6.0 Payout (incl. Div. Tax.) 51.1 57.9 42.2 172.4 74.9 58.7 59.3 56.6 Valuation(x) P/E 6.8 6.6 6.4 12.7 11.3 9.2 9.3 8.9 Cash P/E 6.6 6.5 6.3 12.0 10.7 8.7 8.7 8.3 Price / Book Value 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 EV/Sales 2.2 2.2 2.1 4.9 3.5 3.2 3.1 2.9 EV/EBITDA 3.1 3.2 3.2 9.0 6.8 5.8 5.7 5.3 Dividend Yield (%) 6.2 7.5 7.6 9.7 4.6 5.3 5.3 5.3 EV/ton 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Profitability Ratios (%) RoE 26.8 23.3 22.0 16.8 12.8 15.1 15.5 14.8 RoCE 26.7 23.2 22.0 16.4 12.2 14.7 15.1 14.5 RoIC 197.5 116.5 92.5 62.6 41.4 58.3 66.4 66.4 Turnover Ratios (%) Asset Turnover (x) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Debtors (No. of Days) 37 44 52 50 50 50 50 50 Leverage Ratios (%) Net Debt/Equity (x) -0.8-0.6-0.6-0.4-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.1 Cash Flow Statement (INR Million) Adjusted EBITDA 77,838 81,604 81,369 34,998 44,944 56,197 57,002 59,982 Non cash opr. exp (inc) 18,331 21,400 23,200 15,896 155 3,301 2,191 2,214 (Inc)/Dec in Wkg. Cap. -5,281-27,095-11,975 93 13,117-116 -319-707 Tax Paid -31,228-33,391-30,314-17,373-17,038-18,261-18,082-18,954 Other operating activities 5 12-4,063-3,565 0 0 0 0 CF from Op. Activity 59,665 42,530 58,216 30,049 41,178 41,122 40,792 42,535 (Inc)/Dec in FA & CWIP -19,563-22,888-24,331-20,242-23,505-37,894-16,000-16,000 Free cash flows 40,102 19,642 33,885 9,807 17,673 3,228 24,792 26,535 (Pur)/Sale of Invt -19-7 -3,116-1,335-316 0 0 0 Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CF from Inv. Activity -19,582-22,895-27,447-21,576-23,821-37,894-16,000-16,000 Inc/(Dec) in Net Worth 0 0 0 0-76,078 0 0 0 Inc / (Dec) in Debt 0 0 0 14,970-14,970 0 0 0 Interest Paid 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Divd Paid (incl Tax) & Others -32,471-39,429-29,318-58,694-19,553-22,780-22,780-22,780 CF from Fin. Activity -32,471-39,429-29,318-43,724-110,601-22,780-22,780-22,780 Inc/(Dec) in Cash 7,612-19,794 1,451-35,252-93,244-19,552 2,012 3,755 Add: Opening Balance 202,646 210,258 186,572 184,431 147,636 52,893 33,341 35,353 Closing Balance 210,258 190,464 188,023 149,180 54,392 33,341 35,353 39,108 6 July 2017 5

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This research is distributed in Singapore by Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited and it is only directed in Singapore to accredited investors, as defined in the Financial Advisers Regulations and the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289), as amended from time to time. In respect of any matter arising from or in connection with the research you could contact the following representatives of Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited: Varun Kumar Varun.kumar@motilaloswal.com Contact : (+65) 68189232 Office Address:21 (Suite 31),16 Collyer Quay,Singapore 04931 Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd Motilal Oswal Tower, Level 9, Sayani Road, Prabhadevi, Mumbai 400 025 Phone: +91 22 3982 5500 E-mail: reports@motilaloswal.com 6 July 2017 6