US Flow of Funds: Household Finance November 16, 218 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Net Worth 1-2 Liquidity 3-4 Mortgage Finance 5 Consumer Finance 6-7 US Households: Real Estate & Debt 8-9 Misc. 1-11 November 16, 218 / Household Finance www.
133.6 111.6 89.6 Figure 1. US HOUSEHOLDS: NET WORTH (trillion dollars, ratio scale) Net Worth 133.6 111.6 89.6 67.6 67.6 45.6 45.6 Net Worth (16.9) 23.6 23.6 1.6 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 22 1.6 Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States. 14.2 12.2 1.2 8.2 6.2 Figure 2. ASSETS & LIABLITIES OF US HOUSEHOLDS (trillion dollars, ratio scale) 14.2 12.2 1.2 8.2 6.2 4.2 4.2 2.2 Assets (122.7) 2.2 Liabilities (15.7).2 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 22.2 Source: Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds Accounts. Page 1 / November 16, 218 / Household Finance www.
7. Figure 3. US HOUSEHOLDS: NET WORTH (as a ratio of disposable personal income) Net Worth 7. 6.5 6.5 6. Net Worth (6.9) 6. 5.5 5.5 5. 5. 4.5 4.5 4. 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 22 4. Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States and Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1 Figure 4. US HOUSEHOLDS: ASSETS & LIABILITIES (as a ratio of disposable personal income) 1 8 8 6 6 4 Assets (7.9) Liabilities (1.) 4 2 2 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 22 Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States and Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page 2 / November 16, 218 / Household Finance www.
28 26 Figure 5. US HOUSEHOLDS: SELECTED ASSETS (trillion dollars) Liquidity 28 26 24 22 2 18 Household Assets Corporate Equities: Directly Held (18.1) Owners Equity in Household Real Estate (15.2) Equity in Noncorporate Business (13.) Mutual Fund Shares (8.8) Pension Entitlements (26.1) 24 22 2 18 16 16 14 14 12 12 1 1 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 22 2 Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States. 14.2 112.2 84.2 Figure 6. US HOUSEHOLDS: NET WORTH, ASSETS, & LIABILITIES (trillion dollars, ratio scale) 14.2 112.2 84.2 56.2 56.2 28.2 28.2 Assets (122.7) Net Worth (16.9) Liabilities (15.7).2 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 22.2 Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States. Page 3 / November 16, 218 / Household Finance www.
11 1 Figure 7. Liquidity SAVING DEPOSITS PLUS RETAIL MONEY MARKET MUTUAL FUNDS (billion dollars, sa) 11/5 11 1 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 21 22 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 7 65 6 Figure 8. SAVING DEPOSITS PLUS RETAIL MONEY MARKET MUTUAL FUNDS (as a percent of disposable personal income) 7 65 Sep 6 55 55 5 5 45 45 4 4 35 35 3 3 25 2 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 25 2 Page 4 / November 16, 218 / Household Finance www.
15 125 Figure 9. HOME MORTGAGE BORROWING (billion dollars, 4-quarter sum) Mortgage Finance 15 125 1 1 75 75 5 5 25 25-25 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts. -25 75 7 65 6 55 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 -2-25 -3-35 -4 Figure 1. HOME MORTGAGE LENDING (billion dollars, 4-quarter sum) Federally Related Mortgage Pools (125.5) ABS Issuers* (-25.4) GSE** (126.7) 8 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 75 7 65 6 55 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 -2-25 -3-35 -4 * ABS = Asset-Backed Securities. ** GSE = Government Sponsored Enterprises including FNMA. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts. Page 5 / November 16, 218 / Household Finance www.
24 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8-1 -12-14 Figure 11. CONSUMER CREDIT* (billion dollars, 12-month change) Total** (182.3) Consumer Finance 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 Sep 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8-1 -12-14 * Includes home equity loans but not auto leases. ** From 199 on includes noninstallment credit. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 1. Figure 12. CONSUMER CREDIT: REVOLVING CREDIT PER HOUSEHOLD (thousand dollars, 12-month change) 1..5.5 Sep.. Revolving Credit (.2) -.5 -.5-1. 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 21 22 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. -1. Page 6 / November 16, 218 / Household Finance www.
3 28 26 24 Figure 13. CONSUMER CREDIT* (as a percent of Disposable Personal Income) Consumer Credit (22.3) Includes auto leases** (23.3) Total includes auto leases and home equity loans (25.4) Consumer Finance 3 28 26 24 22 Q3 22 2 2 18 18 16 16 14 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 14 * From 199 on includes noninstallment credit. ** At finance company subsidiaries of bank holding companies, but not of retailers and banks. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 118 112 16 1 94 88 82 76 7 64 58 52 46 4 34 28 22 16 1 4 Figure 14. HOME EQUITY LOANS (billion dollars, sa) Total Home Equity Loans* (545.1) US Chartered Depository Institutions (quarterly) (435.8) At Commercial Banks (weekly) (351.4) 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 21 22 11/7 118 112 16 1 94 88 82 76 7 64 58 52 46 4 34 28 22 16 1 4 * Loans made under home equity lines of credit and home equity loans secured by junior liens. Excludes home equity loans held by mortgage companies and individuals. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Page 7 / November 16, 218 / Household Finance www.
3.8 25.8 2.8 Figure 15. US Households: Real Estate & Debt HOUSEHOLD REAL ESTATE VALUE & HOME MORTGAGES* (trillion dollars, nsa, ratio scale) 3.8 25.8 2.8 15.8 1.8 Household Real Estate* Owners Equity** Home Mortgages 15.8 1.8 5.8 5.8.8 8 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2.8 * Total market value of real estate held by households. All types of owner-occupied housing including farm houses and mobile homes, as well as second homes that are not rented, vacant homes for sale, and vacant land. ** Value of household real estate minus home mortgages. Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States. 7 65 Figure 16. HOUSEHOLD MORTGAGE DEBT (as a percent of value of household real estate*) 7 65 6 6 55 55 5 5 45 45 4 4 35 35 3 3 25 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 22 25 * Home mortgages plus owners equity in household real estate. Source: Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds Accounts. Page 8 / November 16, 218 / Household Finance www.
76 74 Figure 17. US Households: Real Estate & Debt US HOUSEHOLDS: HOME MORTGAGE DEBT* (as a percent of total liabilities) 76 74 72 72 7 7 68 68 66 66 64 64 62 62 6 6 58 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 22 58 * Includes home equity loans and second mortgages. Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States. 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 85 8 75 7 65 6 55 5 45 4 35 3 25 Figure 18. REAL ESTATE (trillion dollars, nsa) Owners Equity in Household Real Estate (15.2) Home Mortgages* (1.2) 85 OWNERS EQUITY 8 (as a percent of household real estate) 75 7 65 6 55 5 45 4 35 3 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 22 25 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 * Includes home equity loans and second mortgages. Source: Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds Accounts. Page 9 / November 16, 218 / Household Finance www.
3.2 Figure 19. Misc. MARKET VALUE OWNER-OCCUPIED HOUSEHOLD REAL ESTATE 3.2 3. 3. 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.2 As a ratio of disposable personal income excluding personal current transfer payments and other labor income 2.4 2.2 2. 2. 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.2 1. As a ratio of disposable personal income 58 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 22 1. 1.2 Source: Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds Accounts and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1.5 1.4 Figure 2. HOME MORTGAGES OUTSTANDING* 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1..9.8 As a ratio of disposable personal income excluding personal current transfer payments and other labor income 1..9.8.7.6.7.6.5.4.3 As a ratio of disposable personal income 58 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 22.3.5.4 * Includes home equity loans and second mortgages. Source: Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds Accounts and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page 1 / November 16, 218 / Household Finance www.
35 Figure 21. MEASURES OF CONSUMER LIQUIDITY (as a percent of disposable personal income) Misc. 35 3 25 Consumer Credit Plus Auto Leases Plus Home Equity Loans at Banks (28.7) Consumer Credit Plus Auto Leases (26.5) Consumer Credit (25.2) Aug 3 25 2 2 15 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 15 Page 11 / November 16, 218 / Household Finance www.
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