IFS Green Budget 2018 Ross Warwick, Institute for Fiscal Studies @TheIFS #IFSGreenBudget
1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 billion, 2018 prices % of Gross National Income UK aid spending is at an all time high... 16 14 12 + 11bn since 1999 + 1bn to 2022 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 10 8 % of GNI (RH axis) 0.5% 0.4% 6 0.3% 4 0.2% 2 0 billion (LH axis) 0.1% 0.0% Notes and sources: see Figure 8.1 in the IFS Green Budget
1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 billion, 2018 prices % of Gross National Income UK aid spending is at an all time high... 16 14 12 As % of govt. expenditure: 0.9% in 2008; 1.7% in 2017 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 10 8 % of GNI (RH axis) 0.5% 0.4% 6 0.3% 4 0.2% 2 0 billion (LH axis) 0.1% 0.0% Notes and sources: see Figure 8.1 in the IFS Green Budget
...this sets it apart internationally... Sweden Luxembourg Denmark United Kingdom Germany Netherlands Belgium France Finland Austria Ireland Italy Spain Portugal Greece Change since 2005 2017 DAC countries, total -0.4-0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 % of Gross National Income Notes and sources: see Figure 8.4 in the IFS Green Budget
...this sets it apart internationally... Change since 2005 2017 Sweden Luxembourg Denmark United Kingdom Germany Netherlands Belgium France Finland Austria Ireland Italy Spain Portugal Greece 0.7% target DAC countries, total -0.4-0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 % of Gross National Income Notes and sources: see Figure 8.4 in the IFS Green Budget
...this sets it apart internationally... Change since 2005 2017 Sweden Luxembourg Denmark United Kingdom Germany Netherlands Belgium France Finland Austria Ireland Italy Spain Portugal Greece 0.7% target DAC countries, total -0.4-0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 % of Gross National Income Notes and sources: see Figure 8.4 in the IFS Green Budget
...and makes it important to understand how it is spent In 2015, the 0.7% target was written into UK law This is a substantial fiscal commitment There have been changes to the strategy underlying this spending 2015 aid strategy is the first cross-government strategy Poverty reduction remains a key objective But also supporting security and prosperity abroad, and tackling crises Contribution to the UK s national interest is emphasised In light of Brexit, increased focus on the role aid can play in creating opportunities abroad for the UK
ODA spent ( billion, 2018 prices) Who spends UK aid? 16 14 Non-DfID DfID 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Notes and sources: see Figure 8.5 in the IFS Green Budget
Where does UK aid go? Net ODA in 2016 (2018 prices) 2.6 bn 19% 6.2 bn Bilateral aid targets a specific country, region or thematic spending area 5.0 bn 36% 45% Multilateral aid funds eligible international institutions carrying out development activities Bilateral Multilateral Bi-through-multi Notes and sources: see Figure 8.6 in the IFS Green Budget Some bilateral aid goes through multilaterals
Where does UK aid go? Net ODA in 2016 (2018 prices) 2.6 bn 19% 6.2 bn Bilateral aid targets a specific country, region or thematic spending area 45% 36% It accounted for 64% of UK ODA in 2016 and 62% in 2017 Bilateral Multilateral Bi-through-multi Notes and sources: see Figure 8.6 in the IFS Green Budget
Where does bilateral aid go? For top recipient countries, some changes in recent years Significant continuity (e.g. Ethiopia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Tanzania) but: Greater focus on crises and conflict (e.g. Jordan, Syria) Transition to development partnerships (e.g. China, India) Thematic spending patterns haven t changed drastically Health, education and governance programmes continue to be prominent Humanitarian aid constituted largest proportion in 2015 and 2016
A greater role for development capital Public investment made in the private sector to achieve development objectives The Treasury has set DfID a target to spend 5 billion in this way over the 2015 Spending Review period CDC Plc is the primary vehicle for this, providing loans and equity Capital injections of 3 billion over 6 years from 2017 Penny Mordaunt s speech last week suggests an even greater role for CDC in UK aid This type of aid does not add to the headline measure of the deficit
Where does UK aid go? Net ODA in 2016 (2018 prices) Multilateral aid funds eligible international institutions carrying out development activities 5.0 bn 36% In 2016, the UK was the largest contributor of this type of aid in the world Bilateral Multilateral Bi-through-multi Over 60% went to the EU, IMF and World Bank Notes and sources: see Figure 8.6 in the IFS Green Budget
UK aid and Brexit The EU is the UK s biggest multilateral partner In 2016, the UK contributed 0.9 billion to the EU Commission s aid budget and 0.6 billion to the other EU institutions There is a great deal of uncertainty about future arrangements The UK seeks close collaboration post-brexit subject to two red lines: influence over how funds are used and access for UK organisations The 0.7% commitment implies that part of the UK s current contribution to the EU is earmarked for aid spending
Summary The UK s commitment to aid spending entails a significant fiscal commitment, forecast at over 14 billion for 2018 Though it is too early to draw strong conclusions, an updated strategy is already affecting how UK aid is spent more humanitarian aid; emphasis on private sector investments There is considerable uncertainty about the future of parts of the aid budget what will happen in next year s Spending Review? what is the role of CDC in the future? how will Brexit affect UK aid?