County Population 1980-2016 County Turnpike Interchanges and Facilities Population (000) 1980 1990 2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Average Annual Growth ( 80-16) Miami-Dade HEFT (0 through 35), 3X 1,626 1,937 2,253 2,496 2,517 2,551 2,582 2,614 2,654 2,701 1.4% Broward Palm Beach HEFT (39, 43, 47), 49, 53, 54, 58, 62, 66, 67, 69, 71, Sawgrass Expressway 1,018 1,255 1,623 1,748 1,753 1,771 1,785 1,804 1,827 1,855 1.7 75, 81, 86, 93, 97, 99, 107,109, 116 577 864 1,131 1,320 1,326 1,335 1,346 1,360 1,378 1,392 2.5 Martin 133 64 101 127 146 147 147 148 149 150 151 2.4 St. Lucie 138, 142, 152 87 150 193 278 280 280 281 283 288 293 3.4 Osceola Orange 193, 240, 242, 244, 249, SCE, Western Beltway, Part C 49 108 172 269 274 281 288 296 308 323 5.4 251, 254, 259, 265, 267, 272, Beachline West/East, SCE, Western Beltway, Part C 471 677 896 1,146 1,157 1,176 1,203 1,228 1,252 1,280 2.8 Lake 278, 285, 289, 296 105 152 211 297 298 300 303 310 317 324 3.2 Sumter 304, 309 24 32 53 93 97 100 105 111 116 119 4.5 Seminole Seminole Expressway 180 288 365 423 425 428 431 437 443 449 2.6 Polk Polk Parkway 322 405 484 602 605 607 614 623 633 647 2.0 Hillsborough Veterans Expressway, Suncoast Parkway, I-4 Connector 647 834 999 1,229 1,239 1,256 1,276 1,302 1,326 1,353 2.1 Pasco Suncoast Parkway 194 281 345 465 467 469 474 479 488 496 2.6 Hernando Suncoast Parkway 45 101 131 173 173 173 174 175 177 180 3.9 Okeechobee Ticket System 20 30 36 40 40 40 40 40 40 41 2.0 Indian River Ticket System 60 90 113 138 139 139 140 141 143 146 2.5 Brevard Beachline East 273 399 476 543 545 546 548 552 562 569 2.1 Turnpike Service Area 5,762 7,704 9,608 11,406 11,482 11,599 11,738 11,904 12,102 12,319 2.1 Total State (67 Counties) 9,747 12,938 15,982 18,801 18,905 19,074 19,260 19,507 19,815 20,149 2.0 Percent (17 of 67 Counties) 59.1% 59.5% 60.1% 60.7% 60.7% 60.8% 60.9% 61.0% 61.1% 61.1% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and University of Florida, Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
State and County Population 1990-2030 Forecast Turnpike Service Area (17 Counties) Total State (67 Counties) Year Population (000) Average Annual Growth* Population (000) Average Annual Growth* Percent 17 of 67 Counties 1990 Census 7,704 12,938 59.5% 2000 Census 9,608 2.2% 15,982 2.1% 60.1 2010 Census 11,406 2.0 18,801 1.9 60.7 2011 Estimate 11,482 1.9 18,905 1.8 60.7 2012 Estimate 11,599 1.9 19,074 1.8 60.8 2013 Estimate 11,738 1.9 19,260 1.7 60.9 2014 Estimate 11,904 1.8 19,507 1.7 61.0 2015 Estimate 12,102 1.8 19,815 1.7 61.1 2016 Estimate 12,319 1.8 20,149 1.7 61.1 2020 Forecast 13,177 1.8 21,439 1.7 61.5 2025 Forecast 14,186 1.8 22,944 1.7 61.8 2030 Forecast 15,057 1.7 24,244 1.6 62.1 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and University of Florida, Bureau of Economic and Business Research. Forecast: BEBR Bulletin 177, April 2017. * Growth is compounded annually based on the 1990 Census data.
Comparison of Growth Indices Index Number (000) 1980 1990 2000 2010 2016 Growth Over Sixteen Year Period (2000-2016) Average Annual Growth ( 80-16) State Population 9,747 12,938 15,982 18,801 20,149 26.1% 2.0% Fuel Consumption (Highway Use) 5,246,579 7,031,708 8,906,286 9,611,976 10,699,870 20.1 2.0 Employment 4,026 6,061 7,569 8,141 9,343 23.4 2.4 Number of Tourists 20,046 40,970 72,800 82,300 112,395 N/A N/A Turnpike Traffic (Transactions) 55,463 121,378 379,132 639,426 833,847 119.9 7.8 Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census, University of Florida, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Florida Commission on Tourism, Visit Florida, Florida Department of Transportation and Florida Research and Economic Database. Note: The research methodology used to count tourists during 2000 was changed resulting in a significant increase in the number of tourists reported in 2000. Similarly, the estimation methodology was changed in 2009. Year-to-year comparison to this period is not valid.
Comparison of Home Ownership, Housing Units and Households Among Five Most Populous States 2016 Home Ownership Rate* (Percent) Total Housing Units (Millions) Total Households (Millions) Illinois 65.3% 5.3 4.8 Florida 64.1 9.2 7.4 Texas 61.1 10.4 9.3 California 53.6 13.9 12.8 New York 53.3 8.2 7.3 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey. * Reflects percent of occupied housing units that are owner-occupied.
Comparative Population Growth in Five Most Populous States (In millions) 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5-1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020* 2030* Florida California Texas New York Illinois Source: University of Florida, Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) and individual state websites. Florida Forecast: BEBR Bulletin 177 April 2017 * Estimate
Florida Population Trend 1,000 3.0% 900 800 2.4% 2.3% 2.5% Average Daily Net Migration 700 600 500 400 300 200 2.0% 1.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 0.9% 1.4% 1.0% 1.6% 1.7% 1.6% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% Percent Increase in Population 100 0 969 954 819 528 187 53 187 204 378 437 631 778 827 816 FY 2004 FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 0.0% Average Daily Net Migration Percent Increase in Population Source: Florida Demographic Estimating Conference July 10, 2017. Florida s population is gradually increasing due in large part to a broader economic recovery. As the graph shows, Florida s annual population growth reached 1.6 percent in FY 2015 and remained at that level through FY 2017, albeit a significant decline from the levels seen prior to the Recession. Correspondingly, the average daily net migration (excluding deaths and births), which peaked at nearly a thousand residents in 2004, is gradually gaining momentum and exceeded 800 residents in 2016 and 2017, after bottoming out in 2009.
Current and Future Population Estimates Regions Served By Turnpike (In Millions) 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Central Florida Tampa South Florida Other 2016 2020 2025 2030 Source: U.S. Bureau of Census and University of Florida, Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR). Forecast: BEBR Bulletin 177, April 2017. The state s population is expected to exceed 24 million in 2030. In fact, as the graph depicts, all the population centers that the Turnpike serves are expected to grow. South and Central Florida are expected to add the bulk of the increase with over one million and 860 thousand, respectively, by 2030, followed by the Tampa region with over 300 thousand.
Year-Over-Year Percent Change: Florida Licensed Drivers and Registered Vehicles 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017-2% -3% -4% -5% Florida Licensed Drivers Registered Vehicles Source: Florida Department of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles. The population growth has a direct impact on the number of driver s licenses issued and vehicles registered in the state. The year-over-year growth rates of Florida licensed drivers have picked up in recent years after declining during recession due to slow down in population. Similarly, the rate of vehicles registered in the state has picked up starting in FY 2012 after a significant decline during the recession. During FY 2017, licensed drivers in Florida grew nearly four percent, while registered vehicles increased approximately three percent due to modest population growth.
Unemployment Rate 11.5% 11.0% Recession 10.5% 10.0% 9.5% 9.0% 8.5% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% FL Unemployed Jun-17: 420K (4.1%) 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% FL Unemployed Jul-07: 380K (4.2%) FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Florida National This graph displays the rise in the unemployment rate in Florida along with the national rate since the beginning of FY 2008. After peaking at 11.2 percent from November 2009 through January 2010, Florida s unemployment rate has gradually declined to 4.1 percent as of June 2017 (comparable to the rate prior to the recession), slightly lower than the national average of 4.4 percent.
Historical Percent Change in Consumer Price Index 2.5% 2.1% 2.0% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6% 1.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. An additional economic indicator is the measure of inflation experienced by consumers for their daily living expenses as expressed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This graph depicts year-over-year increase in annual CPI for the past five years. In recent years the annual CPI increase has been low, particularly in calendar year 2015, due in large part to modest increase in energy and food prices.
Non-Agricultural Employment in Florida 2017 (In Thousands) Other Services Total Government Leisure and Hospitality Education and Health Services Professional and Business Services Financial Activities Information Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Manufacturing Construction 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, December 2017. Florida has a diverse industry base, which to some extent, mitigates the impact from the downturn in certain industry sectors. It has a vibrant high-tech industry, and professional and business services industry, complemented by international trade. The graph above presents the Non-Agriculture Employment in the state by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). In FY 2017, the trade, transportation and utilities industries employed 1.7 million of the workforce and 20 percent of total employment; followed by professional and business services; education and health services; and leisure and hospitality. The construction sector showed the highest growth rate at nearly eleven percent, while the government sector showed a slight increase of one percent compared to the preceding year.
Florida Tourists (In Millions) 36.0 32.0 28.0 24.0 20.0 16.0 12.0 8.0 4.0 0.0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4* 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: visitfloridamediablog.com * 2017 data not yet available. Tourism is a vital component of Florida s economy. This graph shows the number of Florida visitors by quarter over the past nine calendar years through the third quarter of 2017. All quarters show an increasing trend. With over 112 million visitors to Florida, 2016 marked the highest number of tourists on record.
Florida Gasoline Prices (Average of All Grades) $4.50 $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 Jul-2007 Sep-2007 Nov-2007 Jan-2008 Mar-2008 May-2008 Jul-2008 Sep-2008 Nov-2008 Jan-2009 Mar-2009 May-2009 Jul-2009 Sep-2009 Nov-2009 Jan-2010 Mar-2010 May-2010 Jul-2010 Sep-2010 Nov-2010 Jan-2011 Mar-2011 May-2011 Jul-2011 Sep-2011 Nov-2011 Jan-2012 Mar-2012 May-2012 Jul-2012 Sep-2012 Nov-2012 Jan-2013 Mar-2013 May-2013 Jul-2013 Sep-2013 Nov-2013 Jan-2014 Mar-2014 May-2014 Jul-2014 Sep-2014 Nov-2014 Jan-2015 Mar-2015 May-2015 Jul-2015 Sep-2015 Nov-2015 Jan-2016 Mar-2016 May-2016 Jul-2016 Sep-2016 Nov-2016 Jan-2017 Mar-2017 May-2017 Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy. This graph portrays the historical trend of gas prices in Florida (average of all grades). In FY 2008, the Florida gas price escalated from nearly $3 per gallon to over $4. However, starting in early fall 2008, Florida gas prices fell rapidly reaching $1.80 a gallon in December 2008. Since then the gas prices have steadily increased. However, starting in FY 2015, gas prices have shown a general downward trend continuing through FY 2016 and stabilizing in FY 2017 with $2.41 per gallon as of June 2017.
Year-Over-Year Percent Change: Highway Fuel Consumption in Florida 15% 10.8% 10% 7.2% 6.8% 8.0% 5% 4.0% 3.5% 1.7% 2.8% 3.0% 2.3% 2.9% 4.2% 3.8% 3.5% 3.0% 0% 0.4% 0.0% -1.7% -1.7% 0.7% 0.0% -1.8% -1.3% 0.1% -5% -3.7% -6.3% -5.6% -10% -12.5% -15% Gasoline Diesel Source: Florida Department of Transportation. The dramatic slowdown in the economic activities and volatility in fuel prices contributed to a significant decline in the highway fuel consumption rate in the state. As illustrated in the graph above, the year-over-year percentage decline of fuel consumption, particularly diesel from 2007 to 2010, signifies the impact of the economic recession. The consumption rate for both diesel and gasoline rebounded starting in FY 2013 and continued through FY 2017, with diesel and gasoline consumption rate increase at approximately four and three percent, respectively.