Size and state of the European Debt Market European Banks are heavily exposed to Commercial Real Estate Estimates vary from 2 to 2.5trn, equivalent to 10% of loan books Insurance companies hold approx 100 billion of property loans (including residential) Banks hold about 750 billion of delinquent real-estate loans, putting them under pressure to sell assets, according to a study by the European Business School. Most European real-estate debt originated before markets plunged in 2007 is being held on bank balance sheets at 90 percent or more of face value. Potential buyers value them at 50 percent to 60 percent (Bloomberg) Page 2
Refinancing European landlords have 583 billion of commercial property debt maturing by the end of 2013 at the same time regulators are urging banks to shrink their balance sheets (Bloomberg). Europe s overleveraged real estate market is at the beginning of a colossal four-year refinancing challenge in which more than 1trn worth of property loans will mature (DTZ). Over the four years between 2012 and 2015, DTZ estimates that 1.02trn worth of European real estate loans will fall due, comprised of 230bn this year; 250bn next year; 269bn in 2014; and 268bn in 2015. A significant percentage thereof may be under water. Page 3
Deleveraging of banks Due to new regulations, banks are expected to continue to decrease their loan books. The EBA's new tier one capital reserve ratio of 9% applies to 65 European banks under its review; the IMF estimates a reduction as a result to Bank Loans assets of 6-10% reduction. European bank deleveraging is estimated to lead to 231bn of stock coming to the market over the next five years, according to JPMorgan, as part of a wider 413bn offloading over the same period. DTZ projects that Europe s need for debt to rise to $249bn in 2012 as banks deleverage in response to pressure from Basel III and EBA stress tests. Page 4
The funding gap equity desperately needed DTZ sees an alarming 59% rise in the two-year funding gap to $182bn, driven by the European Banking Authority s (EBA) tightened requirement for banks to hold an estimated additional $107bn of capital. This tension could lead to a mismatch over the next two years: Non-bank lenders will add 75bn USD of new lending capacity which would shrink Europe's funding gap to a net 107 bn USD. There may be just sufficient equity to bridge that gap. The two-year net $107bn funding gap needs is in the context of a near 500bn European commercial real estate refinancing wall over the same period. Page 5
Alternative financing Insurance companies property lending, who benefit from more favourable capital adequacy treatment for their loan exposure under Solvency II, remains modest relative to the size of the funding gap; estimates vary from 80 to 150 billion of new financing for the period till 2014. Private placement issuances have proved popular with REITs, such as British Land, Corio, Great Portland Estates, as well as Grosvenor. Especially REITs also have been pretty successful on the (convertible) corporate bond markets (a.o. Unibail Rodamco, Hammerson and British Land) Debt Funds provide an alternative funding source too (senior, stretch senior and /or mezzanine debt) Page 6
Cheap banks sell off? Aggregate real estate loan portfolio sales, totalled to 30bn up to May 2012, with a 50 percentage point discount spread from 30% to 80% (DTZ) With a few exceptions, notably Irish and British banks, there have not yet been massive sales of distressed assets, unless completely under water Many banks are subject to a controlled run off like AIB, Commerzbank s Hypothekenbank Frankfurt (formerly Eurohypo) and Société General. The low cost of carry, state capital injections and liquidity provided by the ECB reduce pressure, if any. More sales need to the come but there is very much uncertainty about timing and pricing. Page 7
Messages from GRI Today s markets require 215 to 250 basis points on core loans but there is a lack of core and margins on core are decreasing. Non core, if well tenanted, requires 350 to 400 basis points, a more than 100bp spread, while the spread variation for distressed and secondary widens even further. Newcomers pay 600 basis points plus. Many loans are warehoused by hard money lenders and then subsequently syndicated. The quality of the lender is becoming increasingly important. Page 8
Messages from GRI (2) With many years of deleveraging to follow, rates will continue to increase and LTV s are coming down. Current insights are that LTV s may in certain cases drop below 50% Expect a 3 to 5 years window before the financing markets will come at ease. CMBS and insurance companies are not the answer and are a drop in a bucket. Panelists also noted a disparity between corporate bonds and senior debt. Page 9
Ad J. Buisman Partner Head of Real Estate for Europe, Middle East, India and Africa (EMEIA) +31621251859 ad.buisman@nl.ey.com