ICRA RESEARCH SERVICES Financial Sector Ratings Indian General Insurance Industry Industry Outlook and Performance Review Contacts Karthik Srinivasan +91 22 6114 3444 karthiks@icraindia.com Saurabh Dhole +91 22 6114 3427 saurabh.dhole@icraindia.com Industry growth improves even as profitability indicators soften; crop Insurance to support growth in FY2017 December 2016
Contents 1. Executive Summary... 1 2. Performance Analysis and Outlook...3 Annexure 1: Combined Financial Indicators for the 14 Insurers used in the Analysis...15 Annexure 2: Entity-wise Financial Indicators...17 Annexure 3: Market Share-based on GDP...25 Annexure 4: Segmental Market Share-based on GDP...26
1. Executive Summary This ICRA paper on the general insurance sector in India analyses the performance of 14 general insurance companies 1 collectively representing 91% of the industry-wide gross direct premium written (GDPW) during Q1FY2017. Of the 14 companies analysed, four are from the public sector and ten from the private sector. Our analysis does not include specialised insurers such as Export Credit Guarantee Corporation of India Limited (ECGC) and Agriculture Insurance Company of India Limited (AIC of India). The key highlights of the report are: Despite sound growth in the population of the country, general insurance density levels have been rising, albeit, at very low growth rates (CAGR of 8.3% during FY2006-15). As on 2015, the general insurance density stands at USD 11.7 while the penetration levels stand at 0.72% Improving from the stable growth rate of 13.5% in FY2016, the gross direct premium (GDP) growth rate increased to 26.0% in H1 FY2017. Private sector players were seen to be growing at a much faster clip (of 33.9% YoY during H1 FY2017) when compared to their PSU peers (grew by 18.9% YoY during H1 FY2017). Owing to the sizeable difference in growth rates, the share of the Private Players in the overall market improved to 49.9% in H1 FY2017 from 47.2% in FY2016. A proportion of the private sector growth can be attributed to the business traction seen by specialised health insurers; however, their share in the overall general insurance market remains small. Excluding the specialised health insurers, private sector still reported a healthy GDP growth of 33.8% in H1 FY2017. In H1 FY2017, the growth rate for the five specialised health insurers remained stable at 34.9% while appreciable growth for private sector insurers was witnessed in motor TP (26.7%) and health & PA (21.3%) segments. The motor insurance segment continues to be the largest segment in the overall industry. In H1 FY2017, growth in the segment for Private Players and PSUs improved to 19.6% (from 13.9% in FY2016) and 14.9% (from 12.3% in FY2016) respectively. During FY2016, health & PA remained the fastest growing segment for the entire industry; this segment grew by 22.1% in H1 FY2017 vis-a-vis 21.2% in FY2016. The retention ratios of PSUs (at 90% in FY2016) remained stable over the last year, and much higher than those for Select Private Players (at 77% in FY2016). This is a reason for higher underwriting losses experienced by PSUs the ratio of large ticket corporate business to small ticket retail business is much higher for PSUs than for Select Private Players. With increasing incidence of catastrophic events, the retention ratios will assume greater importance as insurers attempt to contain losses on large exposures. In H1 FY2017, Select Private Players saw their retention ratios declining to 65% and PSUs saw the ratio decline to 85%. In FY2016, the combined ratios for both Select Private Players and PSUs increased, with PSUs witnessing a sharper increase. PSU s combined ratio increased to 121% in FY2016 (from 113% in FY2015) as their combined underwriting losses grew by 64% to Rs. 108 billion in FY2016 from Rs. 66 billion in FY2015. In H1 FY2017, combined ratios for PSUs rose to 122% largely on account of hardening claims ratio during this period. Although underwriting losses for Select Private Players also witnessed substantial growth (of around 58% YoY), they remained lower at Rs. 23 billion in FY2016. 1 Throughout this note, PSUs is a term used to collectively refer to The Oriental Insurance Company Limited, The New India Assurance Company Limited, National Insurance Company Limited and United India Insurance Company Limited. Similarly, the term Select Private Players is used to collectively refer to Bajaj Allianz General Insurance Company Limited, Bharti AXA General Insurance Company Limited, Cholamandalam MS General Insurance Company Limited, HDFC ERGO General Insurance Company Limited, ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company Limited, IFFCO TOKIO General Insurance Company Limited, Reliance General Insurance Company Limited, Royal Sundaram Alliance Insurance Company Limited, SBI General Insurance Company Limited and Tata AIG General Insurance Company Limited. 1 P a g e
As in the past, the increasing underwriting losses of PSUs were adequately cushioned by their investment earnings. Further, Select Private Players continued to demonstrate better underwriting performance with underwriting losses standing much lower at Rs. 11 billion in H1 FY2017 vis-a-vis underwriting losses of Rs. 58 billion for PSUs. The investment book of insurance companies continues to be dominated by G-Sec and quasi-sovereign securities (40% of investment book as on March 31, 2016). During FY2016, the aggregate investment books of Select Private Players and PSUs grew by 12%, with the private sector investors growing at a higher rate of 18%, albeit on a smaller base. For the first time, the solvency levels of PSUs have fallen below those for Select Private Players. The median solvency ratio for PSUs declined to 1.54 as on September 30, 2016 from 1.78 as on March 31, 2016. The declining solvency for PSUs was largely on account of their higher claims ratios (and their impact on accruals) as PSUs continued to resort to price undercutting in a few segments. The median solvency for Select Private Players remained largely stable at 1.64 as on September 30, 2016 (1.66 in FY2016 and 1.65 in FY2015). The share of business from the broker channel continued to increase in the industry, even as direct business declined. For Select Private Players, in FY2016, the proportion of business from the direct channel reduced to 22% from 30% in FY2015 while the proportion of broker channel improved to 32% from 30%. In FY2016, broker channel was the largest source of business for Select Private Players while Individual Agents continue to play a dominant role for PSUs. Web aggregators have also been gaining traction. As per industry sources, aggregators have been gaining traction with month-on-month rise in traffic and end purchases. This segment is dominated by one large player with an over 90% share currently. The segment remains highly regulated as well, albeit some easing of restrictions in H1 FY2017. Notwithstanding its current urban customer profile, ICRA expects this channel to play a crucial role in increasing insurance penetration given its potential to reach the deepest corners of the country. Following the passage of the Insurance Amendment Act in 2015 which allowed foreign JV partners to increase their stake in their respective JVs to 49%, several joint venture partners have announced their intent to act on this permission. Only one out of transactions listed was a case of an acquisition (HDFC Ergo acquiring L&T General) and as per our interactions with the acquirer, the acquisition was driven largely by the distribution synergies and cost rationalisation. Even as, the actual capital requirements will be dependent on the business mix, growth rates and claims experience, ICRA estimates that to grow at a CAGR of over 20-25% and maintain similar claims records, the private sector players in the industry would require around Rs 50-100 billion of equity capital over the next five years. 2 P a g e
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