Engaging the Big Economic Issues Ahead Economic Media Project November 16, 2012
2 Methodology and Overview This presentation is based on a survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Democracy Corps and Roosevelt Institute as part of the Economic Media Project. The survey of 811 2012 presidential voters (811 weighted) nationwide was conducted from November 6-7, 2012 the night of and night after the election. Survey results were weighted to reflect the National Exit Survey. Unless otherwise noted, margin of error= +/-3.46 percentage points at 95% confidence. This presentation is part of a larger set of several unique election night surveys that Democracy Corps has partnered with a range of progressive groups.
3 Negative judgments edge down on Election Day Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold The state of the economy. 2009 Warm Cool 2010 2011 2012 Election Day 777979 7978 71 67 6566 66 65 61 64 64 72 70 63 63 60 70 71 68 69 6466 6362 67 68 66 68 74 79 74 66 60 59 57 56 61 57 56 53 55 54 21 12 1315 15 16 16 17 19 19 9 8 9 8 23 20 21 19 16 16 18 18 13 13 13 31 18 22 16 16 19 17 19 22 28 24 24 30 22 23 28 12 9 11 25 Nov-08 Mar-09 Jul-09 Nov-09 Mar-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov-12
4 Personal financial judgments tick up on Election Day Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold The state of your personal finances. 2010 Warm 50 50 52 46 51 Cool 53 45 47 2011 48 47 47 44 46 2012 49 50 47 51 48 Election Day 55 53 53 52 25 24 23 29 21 26 25 32 26 27 28 24 29 24 23 27 21 28 24 24 21 21 Nov-09 Mar-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov-12
Job gains at Election Day I'm going to read you a list of economic experiences some people have recently had. For each one, please tell me if you have directly experienced this in the last year, if your family has directly experienced this in the last year, or if someone you know well, like a friend, neighbor or co-worker, has experienced this or if no one you know well has experienced it. Got a new job Rejoined the job market and began to look for work again Election Day Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 34 34 34 34 35 36 35 32 29 33 31 32 30 27 27 39 33 33 33 34 32 29 33 38 31 31 44 38 42 42 39 41 37 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys from January 2010 to June 2012. Data reflects the total of those who have felt a personal impact or an impact on someone in their family. 5
But personal negative economic indicators (household) slightly worse on Election Day I'm going to read you a list of economic experiences some people have recently had. For each one, please tell me if you have directly experienced this in the last year, if your family has directly experienced this in the last year, or if someone you know well, like a friend, neighbor or co-worker, has experienced this or if no one you know well has experienced it. 34 34 26 14 Loss of a job Lost health insurance coverage Fallen behind on mortgage payments Reduced wages, hours or benefits at work Made big changes to buying habits at the grocery store due to rising prices 63 35 36 28 55 32 28 23 17 14 64 40 34 35 33 38 28 27 19 20 Election Day 61 57 58 42 41 39 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 26 24 22 30 Changes at grocery store Reduced wages/ benefits Loss of a job Lost health insurance Fallen behind on mortgage *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys from February 2012 to November 2012. Data reflects the total of those who have felt a personal impact or an impact on someone in their family. 6
Voted against Romney because out-of-touch and for the rich above all Let me read you a list of doubts about Mitt Romney. Regardless of how you voted, which THREE describe the most important reasons NOT to vote for Mitt Romney? His statement that he doesn't care about the "47 percent" With the rich and out of touch with average people Wants more tax cuts for the wealthy Closed companies and shipped jobs abroad when CEO of Bain Capital For the Bush trickle down policies that caused the economic crash Would repeal Obamacare Plan to change Medicare and raise costs for seniors Changed positions so often we don't know what he believes Stands for Tea Party Republicans who produce gridlock in Washington Being against Planned Parenthood and preventive health services for women Would increase military spending and let generals decide whether to keep troops in Afghanistan 14 13 17 17 21 20 23 25 26 28 31 0 25 50 *Note: From combined Democracy Corps National Post Election surveys, November 2012. For rich and out of touch Threats to Social Insurance Leadership Qualities Women Foreign Policy 7
Obama won the battle for the middle class Now I am going to ask you something different. I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think Barack Obama or the Mitt Romney would do a better job with this issue Restoring the middle class Obama much better Romney much better Restoring the middle class 51 +9 42 41 30 Obama Romney *Note: From combined Democracy Corps National Post Election surveys, November 2012. 8
Most important for future of middle class? Jobs, debt and protecting middle class retirement Both Barack Obama and Mitt Romney said in their campaigns that this election is about the future of the middle class. That was the big choice. Now, that the election is over, which THREE of the following are the most important things for us to focus on? Percent saying most important thing (top 3) Creating jobs and getting the economy going Reducing the federal deficit and lowering debt for future generations Protecting middle class retirement benefits including Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security Investing more in education and training Helping small businesses with access to credit and reduced red tape Reducing the influence of special interest money in politics Implementing the new health care law to reduce health care costs Investing in alternative energy and strengthening infrastructure for extreme weather Increasing the minimum wage and empowering workers to get higher pay and benefits Breaking up the big banks and prosecuting those who caused the financial crisis Investing in rebuilding our roads, transportation, and economic infrastructure 27 22 16 16 15 15 15 13 50 44 38 *Note: From combined Democracy Corps National Post Election surveys, November 2012. 9
Jobs, retirement top among Obama and swing voters; debt and deficit concerns come entirely from Romney voters Both Barack Obama and Mitt Romney said in their campaigns that this election is about the future of the middle class. That was the big choice. Now, that the election is over, which THREE of the following are the most important things for us to focus on? Creating jobs and getting the economy going Certain Obama voters Wavering Obama voters Romney voters Percent saying most important thing (top 3) 45 49 54 Protecting middle class retirement benefits including Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security Certain Obama voters Wavering Obama voters Romney voters 39 37 37 Investing more in education and training Certain Obama voters Wavering Obama voters Romney voters 18 30 37 Reducing the federal deficit and lowering debt for future generations Certain Obama voters Wavering Obama voters Romney voters 26 32 60 *Note: From combined Democracy Corps National Post Election surveys, November 2012. 0 25 50 10
11 Almost two-thirds say bi-partisan deficit deal must raise taxes As you may know, there is a possibility there will be a grand bi-partisan bargain to reduce the deficit over 10 years by 4 trillion dollars. The 4 trillion dollar package of deficit reduction would have to include some amount of new revenue and cuts in spending. What, in your mind, are the right amounts? 62% 40% Almost 2/3 want some tax increases 40% want ½ or more tax increases 23 22 23 12 5 All tax revenue increases and no spending cuts 2/3 increases, 1/3 cuts Half and half 2/3 cuts, 1/3 increases All spending cuts and no tax revenue increases
12 Most want to postpone or cancel the $1.2 trillion cuts As you may know, if Congress doesn't come up with a deal by the end of the year, there will be 1.2 trillion dollars of immediate cuts, half from military and defense spending and half from domestic programs. The Congressional Budget Office says that if the cuts and tax hikes go into effect, the economy is likely to go back into a recession, with rising unemployment and worse deficits. If Congress can't agree on a deal, should it: 52% Majority cancel or postpone 34 32 18 Cancel the spending cuts and tax hikes, and go back to normal congressional budget process Postpone the spending cuts and tax hikes until the economy comes back Inflict the spending cuts and tax hikes, forcing congress to act rapidly
Growth vs. austerity 2012 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 13
14 Investment now framed with long-term debt reduction is a winning argument and gaining ground Now I'm going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. We should avoid immediate drastic cuts in spending, and instead, we need serious investments that create jobs and make us more prosperous in the long term that will reduce our debt, too. October The only way to restore prosperity and market confidence is to dramatically reduce government spending and our long-term deficits. November +4 Strongly Strongly +9 49 51 45 41 41 36 42 32 Serious investments Reduce spending/deficits Serious investments Reduce spending/deficits
15 Must protect Medicare and Social Security for the middle class Now I'm going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. Given where our economy is, we should invest now in infrastructure, education and technology, and re-hiring teachers and firefighters to get people back to work to make our country stronger in the long-term. Given where our economy is, we should cut government spending and reduce the federal deficit that weighs down our economy and give confidence to businesses to invest and create jobs. Given where our economy is, we should do everything we can to help the middle class, and that means protecting Medicare and Social Security. Given where our economy is, we should cut government spending and reduce the federal deficit that weighs down our economy and give confidence to businesses to invest and create jobs. +9 Strongly Strongly +9 52 50 43 41 42 42 35 32 Invest now Cut spending/deficit Help middle class Cut spending/deficit
Liberal vs. conservative economics 2012 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 16
No tailwind for liberal economics coming out of elections I want you to imagine you are watching a debate on the topic of the economy. Considering these two statements, which person do you trust more to address the economy -- Speaker A or Speaker B? Speaker A says: Our country's highest priority should be growth that creates full employment and raises incomes at every level and that reduces the deficit in the long-term. Growth requires public investment in things like transportation, science, and education. Markets don't always produce the best outcomes, so we need to rein in corporate excess that harms consumers or the economy. We should tax the highest earners to address the country's key priorities. Speaker B says: Our economy works best when government is smaller and entrepreneurs and small businesses play a bigger role. So our biggest priority should be cutting government spending, including out-of-control entitlement spending, and removing government regulation that does more harm than good. We should be simplifying the tax code so government doesn't pick winners and losers and cutting taxes permanently for all taxpayers and corporations to spur growth. Trust much more Trust much more +2 46 44 32 30 Speaker A Speaker B 17
Liberal economics chosen because of taxing high earners and public investment From the statement you just selected, what two things stood out for you the most? Among those choosing progressive argument Tax highest earners Percent saying this stood out the most (top 2 combined) 36 Public investment in transportation, science and education 32 Reduces the deficit in the long-term Creating full employment Rein in corporate excess Raising incomes at every level Highest priority is growth 21 18 17 15 11 Note: All respondents volunteered their answers, which were then filtered in the pre-coded responses shown above. 18
Bold policies to change the economy 2012 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 19
Major support for bold plans to reform politics, raise incomes and address inequality Now, looking ahead to the kinds of policies that the U.S. might enact in the next few years, I'm going to read you a list of them and for each, please tell me whether you favor or oppose that policy. Strongly oppose Strongly favor Clean up lobbyists, and prevent government staff from cashing in on their connections in the private sector by closing the revolving door between the government and lobbying firms. 10 6 68 81 Strengthen Medicare by controlling health care costs, putting in place new budget goals, and cutting waste on payments to providers, not cutting benefits to beneficiaries. 14 6 51 78 Raise the top tax bracket to 40 percent for those with incomes over 1 million dollars, which would fix inequality in the tax code, help pay down the deficit and strengthen the safety net for the middle class. 31 19 49 64 60 35 10 15 40 65 20
Major support for bold plans to reform politics, raise incomes and address inequality (continued) Now, looking ahead to the kinds of policies that the U.S. might enact in the next few years, I'm going to read you a list of them and for each, please tell me whether you favor or oppose that policy. Strongly oppose Strongly favor Put limits on corporate executive pay and encourage payfor-performance through increased transparency and disclosure requirements, so that CEO compensation more closely aligns with the long-term interests of the company and not short-term profit motives. 27 14 48 67 Raise the minimum wage to ensure everyone can make a living wage. 26 13 47 69 Provide 55 billion dollars over the next three years to rehire teachers and modernize schools. 30 16 43 65 60 35 10 15 40 65 21
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