The Value of Metrorail and Virginia Railway Express to the Commonwealth of Virginia

The Value of Metrorail and Virginia Railway Express to the Commonwealth of Virginia Dan Goldfarb, PE Mid-Colonial District Annual Conference Philadelphia, PA April, 17, 2018

The Commission NVTC Jurisdictions: Loudoun County Arlington County Fairfax County City of Alexandria City of Fairfax City of Falls Church All of NVTC s jurisdictions are members of the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Zone established by the WMATA Compact. 2

The Commission 3

Why is Rail Transit Important to Virginia? Metrorail and VRE Service in Northern Virginia Metrorail and VRE move 290,000 people per average weekday Approximately 80 directional miles of Metrorail and 25 stations in Virginia VRE has approximately 160 directional track miles and 17 stations in Virginia Regional Benefits - NVTC, WMATA, and MWCOG studies $235B in property value within ½ mile $3.1B/year in property tax revenues But how does rail transit in Northern Virginia benefit the Commonwealth as a whole? 4

Study Objectives and Methodology Study Objective The goal of this effort was to evaluate the of Metrorail and VRE at the state level. Technical Review Team WMATA, TPB, FTA, GMU, and other nationally recognized transit experts. How is this different than other studies? What distinguishes this study from earlier ones is that it is dynamic. Our approach focused on the level of activity that the regional transportation network could support. Looked beyond impacts on local generated revenues and focuses on state revenues. 5

Study Approach (1) Determine the Existing Level of Roadway Congestion (2) Remove Metro & VRE from the Transportation Network in Virginia (3) Redistribute Land Use Until Network Reaches Existing Roadway Congestion (4) Estimate State Revenue Loses from Land Use Redistribution 6

Study Approach (1) Determine the Existing Level of Roadway Congestion (2) Remove Metro & VRE from the Transportation Network in Virginia Modeling (3) Redistribute Land Use Until Network Reaches Existing Roadway Congestion (4) Estimate State Revenue Loses from Land Use Redistribution 7

Modeling Application Redistribute Land Use No Model Networks without NOVA HR & CR Evaluate Congestion Match Baseline Yes Determine Economic Impacts 8

Existing Level of Roadway Congestion Measures of Effectiveness (MOEs) Measure Primary Secondary Service Supplied (Mobility) HBW Average Trip Length Job Accessibility Service Consumed Peak Period Congested Lane Miles HBW Mode Share 9

Congestion Analytics 100% 90% 80% Northern Virginia Morning Peak Period Lane Miles of Congestion 29% 33% 15% 15% 35% Miles 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 Average Trip Length 17.22 17.06 11.64 9.26 7.89 6.20 5.39 5.03 5.32 4.98 13.44 5.65 70% 30% 4 60% 50% 36% 40% 2 0 Arlington Alexandria Fairfax Loudoun Prince William NOVA Commute Trip Non-Work Trip 40% 46% 47% HBW Transit Mode Share 30% 20% 10% 35% 21% 45% 55% 18% NOVA Prince William Loudoun Fairfax 5% 4% 18% 17% 0% Freeway Expressway Major Arterial Minor Arterial Collector Uncongested Near Capacity Over Capcity Alexandria 38% Arlington 49% 0% 20% 40% 60% 10

Percent of Lane Miles by Level of Service 100% Northern Virginia Morning Peak Period Lane Miles of Congestion 100% Metropolitian Area Morning Peak Period Lane Miles of Congestion 90% 80% 70% 60% 29% 33% 15% 15% 40% 30% 35% 90% 80% 70% 60% 37% 28% 17% 14% 31% 24% 38% 50% 36% 50% 43% 40% 46% 47% 40% 39% 38% 30% 20% 10% 35% 21% 45% 55% 18% 30% 20% 10% 24% 29% 52% 62% 24% 0% Freeway Expressway Major Arterial Minor Arterial Collector 0% Freeway Expressway Major Arterial Minor Arterial Collector Uncongested Near Capacity Over Capcity Uncongested Near Capacity Over Capcity 11

Percent of Lane Miles by Level of Service 100% Northern Virginia Morning Peak Period Lane Miles of Congestion 100% Metropolitian Area Morning Peak Period Lane Miles of Congestion 90% 80% 70% 60% 29% 33% 15% 15% 40% 30% 35% 90% 80% 70% 60% 37% 28% 17% 14% 31% 24% 38% 50% 36% 50% 43% 40% 46% 47% 40% 39% 38% 30% 20% 10% 35% 21% 45% 55% 18% 30% 20% 10% 24% 29% 52% 62% 24% 0% Freeway Expressway Major Arterial Minor Arterial Collector 0% Freeway Expressway Major Arterial Minor Arterial Collector Uncongested Near Capacity Over Capcity Uncongested Near Capacity Over Capcity 12

Mobility Measure Gravity Model Travel time budget Average HBW trip time 30 minutes Time constant Length changes Measures impact from congestion HBW Trips 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Trips ij = P i A j FF ij K ij S(A j FF ij K ij ) Travel Time Distribution 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Impedance (Time & Cost) 13

Existing Trip Length 20 18 17.22 17.06 16 14 13.44 12 11.64 Miles 10 8 6 7.89 5.39 9.26 5.03 6.20 5.32 4.98 5.65 4 2 0 Arlington Alexandria Fairfax Loudoun Prince William NOVA Home Based Work Non-Home Based Work 14

Existing HBW Mode Share 100% 90% 17% 4% 13% 5% 12% 18% 80% 70% 49% 38% 13% 11% 60% 9% 50% 8% 40% 30% 20% 43% 53% 73% 83% 83% 71% 10% 0% Arlington Alexandria Fairfax Loudoun Prince William Region SOV HOV TRN 15

Existing HBW Transit Mode Share 100% 90% 80% 22% 31% 19% 33% 35% 23% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 78% 69% 81% 67% 65% 77% 20% 10% 0% Arlington Alexandria Fairfax Loudoun Prince William Region Rail Bus Only 16

Modeling Iterative process Total of 14 model runs Baseline Existing land use, with no rail in Northern Virginia Existing rail mode share reduction with no rail in Northern Virginia Match average HBW trip length Redistributed households and jobs to jurisdictions outside of Northern Virginia in MWCOG region Redistribution was based on future land use plans Households were located in areas of similar income levels Abbreviated model process Full model with equilibrium assignment 17

Household Reductions Productions TAZ level LOW Metrorail Riders HIGH Proportionally reduced based on the WMATA passenger survey Figure 3 Source: NVTC and WMATA 2016 Metrorail Survey Ridership weighted by population per traffic analysis zone 18

Household Reductions 14.80 14.60 14.40 14.20 14.80 14.60 14.40 14.20 Average Trip Length 14.00 14.00 13.80 13.80 13.60 13.60 13.40 13.40 13.20 13.20 13.00 13.00 12.80 12.80 12.60 12.60 760,000 780,000 800,000 820,000 840,000 860,000 880,000 900,000 Households The regression analysis helped to guide the reduction of households in Northern Virginia. It was applied to the abbreviated model runs. 19

Household Reductions Jurisdiction Percent Households Reduced Percent of Households Reduced to Total Households in the Jurisdiction Arlington 30% 25% Alexandria 15% 15% Fairfax 45% 10% Loudoun 5% 1% Prince William 5% 5% 20

Jobs Reductions Attractions TAZ level Proportionally reduced based on the WMATA passenger survey Applied areas around Metro stations Employment was a function of household productions Office employment used NCHRP 365 Retail employment used V2.3 trip attraction Balanced to production 21

Economic Impacts Focus was impacts to the Commonwealth Approximately 90% of the revenue is income and sales taxes Calculated the loss in income and sales taxes from redistribution of households and jobs 18% State Tax Sources 13% 69% Calculations were at the TAZ level Income Sales Other 22

Income Tax Calculations Step 1 Expand Income Distribution Ranges Step 2 Adjust for Inflation Step 3 Convert Gross Income to Adjusted Gross Income Step 4 Convert Adjusted Gross Income to Net Taxable Income Step 5 Multiply by Average Tax rate Result Estimated State Income Tax Revenues 23

Income Tax Calculations Household Income provided by the 2009 5-Year American Community Survey Model Income Quartiles ($2007) < $50,000 $50,000 - $99,999 ACS Income Ranges ($2009) Midpoint Less than $10,000 $5,000 $10,000 to $14,999 $12,500 $15,000 to $24,999 $20,000 $25,000 to $34,999 $30,000 $35,000 to $49,999 $42,500 $50,000 to $74,999 $62,500 $75,000 to $99,999 $87,500 $100,000 - $149,000 $100,000 to $149,999 $125,000 > $150,000 $150,000 to $199,999 $175,000 $200,000 or more $400,000 24

Income Tax Calculations Household Income provided by the 2009 5-Year American Community Survey Model Income Quartiles ($2007) < $50,000 $50,000 - $99,999 ACS Income Ranges ($2009) Midpoint Less than $10,000 $5,000 $10,000 to $14,999 $12,500 $15,000 to $24,999 $20,000 $25,000 to $34,999 $30,000 $35,000 to $49,999 $42,500 $50,000 to $74,999 $62,500 $75,000 to $99,999 $87,500 $100,000 - $149,000 $100,000 to $149,999 $125,000 > $150,000 $150,000 to $199,999 $175,000 $200,000 or more $400,000 25

Income Tax Calculations Gross Income compared to Adjusted Gross Income 0.99 Ratio of AGI to Income 0.985 0.98 0.975 0.97 0.965 0.96 0.955 Less than $10,000 $10,000 to $14,999 $15,000 to $24,999 $25,000 to $49,999 $50,000 to $74,999 $75,000 to $99,999 > $100,000 26

Income Tax Calculations Adjusted Gross Income, Taxable Income, and Total Tax Liability by Income Class. 6.00% 5.00% 4.58% 4.88% 5.08% 5.23% 5.54% 4.15% 4.00% 3.57% 3.00% 2.60% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% Less than $10,000 $10,000 to $14,999 $15,000 to $24,999 $25,000 to $34,999 $35,000 to $49,999 $50,000 to $74,999 $75,000 to $99,999 $100,000 and more Average Tax Rate 27

Sales Tax Calculations Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Calculate Retail Jobs by Jursidiction Estimate Sales Tax Yield by Jurisdiction Establish Ratios of Retail Jobs to Sales Tax Yield Estimate State Sales Tax (General Fund) Revenues 28

Findings HBW Mode Share Impacts 60% 50% 49% 40% 38% 30% 28% 24% 20% 17% 18% 10% 0% 8% 6% 4% 5% 2% 3% Arlington Alexandria Fairfax Loudoun Prince William NOVA Existing Existing without Rail Modes 29

Redistributing Land Use Households Redistributed Jobs Redistributed Removed Households Removed Jobs 251 801 151-250 401-800 101-150 51-100 6-50 1-5 0 85,000 201-400 51-200 6-50 1-5 0 130,500 30

Household Reductions 100% 90% 27,500 12,300 40,000 1,200 4,000 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 77,500 59,700 383,000 123,100 157,500 30% 20% 10% 0% Arlington Alexandria Fairfax Loudoun Prince William Remaining Removed 31

Job Reductions 70,000 60,000 50,000 Removed from NOVA 27,500 Retail Jobs 103,000 Office Jobs Jobs 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Arlington Alexandria Fairfax Loudoun Prince William Retail Office Office 32

HBW Trip Average Length 20.0 18.0 17.2 17.0 17.1 16.9 16.0 14.0 13.4 13.4 12.0 11.6 11.8 Miles 10.0 8.0 7.9 8.0 9.3 9.7 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Arlington Alexandria Fairfax Loudoun Prince William NOVA Baseline Final Run 33

Percent Distribution by Facility Type of Highly Congested Lane Miles 35% Percent of Highly Congested Lane Miles 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Freeway Major Arterial Minor Arterial Collector Expressway 34

Report Findings: Revenues, Riders, and Cost Savings additional daily transit trips in Northern Virginia in sales and income tax revenue sent to the state s general fund generated by the additional households and jobs that rail supports lane miles of congestion saved 35

Value of Metrorail and VRE to the Commonwealth of Virginia This report can be found at www.novatransit.org Northern Virginia Transportation Commission Kate Mattice, Executive Director Dan Goldfarb, PE, Principal Researcher / Lead Author Andrew D'huyvetter, AICP, Researcher / Author Nobuhiko Daito, Ph.D., Researcher / Author For more information, contact Karen Finucan Clarkson at karenfinucanclarkson@novatransit.org or 571-483-3223 36