Tax Reform National Survey Key findings of a survey of 1,000 likely voters nationally, conducted October 19-22, 2017. Glen Bolger glen@pos.org Project #17420
Public Opinion Strategies is pleased to present the key findings of a survey of 1,000 likely voters nationally. The survey was completed October 19-22,2017 and has a margin of error of +3.10%. Glen Bolger was the principal researcher on this project. Kyle Clark was the project director and Maddy Bolger provided analytical support.
The Big Picture
Voters overwhelmingly say the country is headed in the wrong direction. Independent voters are very pessimistic. Would you say that things in the country are going in the right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? Overall By Party +53 +10-49 -84-92 No Opinion 4% Refused 2%* Right Direction 29% 75% 72% 90% 94% 49% 39% 22% 23% 6% 2% Wrong Track 65% *Denotes Rounding Base GOP (17%) Soft/Lean GOP (21%) Ind (17%) Right Direction Soft/Lean Dem (21%) Wrong Track Base Dem (22%) Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 4
Half of voters strongly disapprove of the job President Trump is doing. And, do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president? Overall Total Approve 41% Total Disapprove 58% By Party +85 +45-19 -80-94 Don't Know 1% Strongly Approve 25% 92% 90% 96% 71% 59% 40% 26% Strongly Disapprove 50% Somewhat Disapprove 8% Somewhat Approve 16% 7% Base GOP (17%) Soft/Lean GOP (21%) Approve Ind (17%) 10% Soft/Lean Dem (21%) Disapprove 2% Base Dem (22%) Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 5
Only men without a degree approve of Trump. All other gender/education groups disapprove by double digit margins. Trump Approval by Gender/Education +16-19 -16-48 73% 57% 59% 58% 41% 40% 42% 25% Men w/o a Degree (25%) Men w/ a Degree (23%) Women w/o a Degree (25%) Women w/ a Degree (27%) Approve Disapprove Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 6
The Current Tax System
A majority of voters say it is time to change the tax system. Thinking about the country s tax system, while no one enjoys having to pay taxes, I would like to know how well you think the country s tax system is working right now. Do you think... Total Stay the Same 44%* Total Change 55% 6% The current tax system works pretty well as it is now 39% 30% 25% Some changes are needed, but basically it should stay the same Major changes are needed or A complete overhaul of the current tax system is needed? *Denotes Rounding Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 8
Seventy percent of Republicans say the tax system needs to change. Tax System by Party Base GOP (17%) Soft/Lean GOP (21%) Independent (17%) Soft/Lean Dem (21%) Base Dem (22%) Complete Overhaul is Needed (44%) Major Changes are Needed (36%) Some Changes Need, but Basically the Same (42%) Some Changes Need, but Basically the Same (53%) Some Changes Need, but Basically the Same (47%) Major Changes are Needed (29%) Complete Overhaul is Needed (34%) Complete Overhaul is Needed (28%) Major Changes are Needed (26%) Major Changes are Needed (31%) Some Changes Need, but Basically the Same (23%) Some Changes Need, but Basically the Same (26%) Major Changes are Needed (25%) Complete Overhaul is Needed (11%) Complete Overhaul is Needed (12%) Works Well As Is (3%) Works Well As Is (3%) Works Well As Is (4%) Works Well As Is (9%) Works Well As Is (8%) Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 9
Conservative voters overwhelmingly say that change is needed. Moderates are split. Tax System by Ideology -55-21 +2 +14-29 77% 39% 60% 51% 49% 57% 43% 35% 64% 22% Very Conservative (17%) Somewhat Conservative (20%) Moderate (38%) Liberal (23%) Mod/Lib GOP (12%) Stay the Same Change Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 10
The number one priority for voters is to get rid of loopholes to ensure the rich pay their fair share. Still thinking about this, which is personally more important to you? 37% 23% 22% 15% Getting rid of loopholes to make sure the rich pay their fair share Modernizing our tax code to create jobs and get our economy growing again Cutting taxes for the middle class so they have more to spend and save or Making the tax system simpler and easier to understand? Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 11
GOPers want to modernize the code, while Independents and Democrats prioritize getting rid of loopholes. Tax Reform Goals Importance by Party Base GOP (17%) Soft/Lean GOP (21%) Independent (17%) Soft/Lean Dem (21%) Base Dem (22%) Modernizing Our Tax Code/Jobs (38%) Modernizing Our Tax Code/Jobs (28%) Getting Rid of Loopholes/Rich (35%) Getting Rid of Loopholes/Rich (49%) Getting Rid of Loopholes/Rich (60%) Cutting Taxes for the Middle Class (26%) Making the Tax System Simpler (23%) Modernizing Our Tax Code/Jobs (25%) Modernizing Our Tax Code/Jobs (18%) Cutting Taxes for the Middle Class (22%) Making the Tax System Simpler (21%) Cutting Taxes for the Middle Class (23%) Cutting Taxes for the Middle Class (24%) Cutting Taxes for the Middle Class (18%) Modernizing Our Tax Code/Jobs (10%) Getting Rid of Loopholes/Rich (14%) Getting Rid of Loopholes/Rich (22%) Making the Tax System Simpler (15%) Making the Tax System Simpler (13%) Making the Tax System Simpler (6%) Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 12
Voters across income groups want reform to focus on getting rid of loopholes for the rich. Tax Reform Goals Importance by Income Under $40K (23%) $40-$80K (30%) $80K+ (41%) Getting Rid of Loopholes/Rich (44%) Getting Rid of Loopholes/Rich (36%) Getting Rid of Loopholes/Rich (36%) Modernizing Our Tax Code/Jobs (23%) Modernizing Our Tax Code/Jobs (26%) Cutting Taxes for the Middle Class (26%) Cutting Taxes for the Middle Class (17%) Cutting Taxes for the Middle Class (20%) Modernizing Our Tax Code/Jobs (21%) Making the Tax System Simpler (15%) Making the Tax System Simpler (16%) Making the Tax System Simpler (14%) Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 13
GOPers want to get rid of loopholes, simplify taxes, and implement a flat tax. Now, finally, if you could give some anonymous advice to your Senators about how to fix the federal tax system, what one or two pieces of advice would you tell them? ^ Get Rid of Loopholes 38% Simplify Tax System 26% Flat Tax 23% Spend Taxes Properly 19% ^Split Sample A, N=481 (Among 40% GOP) Tax Breaks for Middle Class 14% Need to Stimulate the Economy 13% Listen to the People 10% Decrease Corporate Taxes 10% Wealthy Pay More 10% Reform Healthcare 6% Taxes Based on Income 6% Support President Trump 6% Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 14
Independents want to close loopholes, have the wealthy pay more, and get tax cuts for the middle class. Now, finally, if you could give some anonymous advice to your Senators about how to fix the federal tax system, what one or two pieces of advice would you tell them? ^ (Among 17% Ind) Get Rid of Loopholes 40% Wealthy Pay More 28% Tax Breaks for Middle Class 20% Simplify Tax System 17% Spend Taxes Properly 16% Listen to the People 14% Increase Corporate Taxes 13% Flat Tax 13% Need to Stimulate the Economy 12% Decrease Corporate Taxes 8% Ignore President Trump 6% Reform Healthcare 5% Taxes Based on Income 4% Support President Trump 4% ^Split Sample A, N=481 Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 15
Dems want to close loopholes and have the wealthy pay more. They also support tax cuts for the middle class. Now, finally, if you could give some anonymous advice to your Senators about how to fix the federal tax system, what one or two pieces of advice would you tell them? ^ (Among 42% Dem) Get Rid of Loopholes 49% Wealthy Pay More 32% Tax Breaks for Middle Class 28% Simplify Tax System 15% Listen to the People 14% Increase Corporate Taxes 13% Need to Stimulate the Economy 13% Flat Tax 9% Spend Taxes Properly 9% Need Affordable Healthcare 9% Taxes Based on Income 6% Ignore President Trump 4% Don t Know 4% Be Transparent 3% Leave Social Security Alone 3% ^Split Sample A, N=481 Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 16
Republicans think a fair tax system includes fewer loopholes, a flat tax, and a simpler tax code. How do you think a fairer tax system would be different than the current system? ^^ No Loopholes for Wealthy/Corporations 28% Flat Tax 28% Simplified Tax Code 23% Tax Cuts for Middle Class 15% ^^Split Sample B, N=471 (Among 37% GOP) Stimulate the Economy/Create Jobs Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 17 12% Business Tax Cut 11% Healthcare Reform 9% Use Taxes Properly 6% Reduce Welfare 6% Should Be Fair 5% Agree with Trump 5% Consumption Tax 4%
To Independents, a fair tax code closes loopholes, cuts middle class taxes, and implements a flat tax. How do you think a fairer tax system would be different than the current system? ^^ No Loopholes for Wealthy/Corporations 42% Tax Cuts for Middle Class 18% Flat Tax 18% Use Taxes Properly/For Infrastructure 13% Simplified Tax Code 12% ^^Split Sample B, N=471 (Among 17% Ind) Stimulate the Economy/Create Jobs 8% Should Be Fair 8% Reduce Welfare 8% Healthcare Reform 5% Business Tax Cut 5% Fewer Deductions 4% Taxes Based on Income 3% Agree with Trump 3% Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 18
Democrats overwhelmingly want a fair tax code to include fewer loopholes. They also want a reduction on middle class taxes. How do you think a fairer tax system would be different than the current system? ^^ (Among 45% Dem) No Loopholes for Wealthy/Corporations 65% Tax Cut for Middle Class 33% Flat Tax 13% Simplified Tax Code 9% Stimulate the Economy/Create Jobs 9% Use Taxes Properly/For Infrastructure 9% Healthcare Reform 7% Taxes Based on Income 5% Should Be Fair 4% ^^Split Sample B, N=471 Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 19
Tax Reform Proposals
Voters support the idea of tax reform, but disapprove of the proposal put forward by the president and Congress. President Trump and some members of Congress have proposed major changes to the tax code. Based on what you have seen, read, or heard about these changes, do you approve or disapprove of the proposal for changes to the tax system? ^ Total Approve 36% Total Disapprove 46% Do you support or oppose an effort to reform the tax code? ^^ Total Support 82%* Total Oppose 13% Don't Know 16% Refused 2%* Strongly Approve 18% Somewhat Approve 18% Somewhat Oppose 6% Strongly Oppose 7% Don't Know 4% Refused 2%* Strongly Support 48% Strongly Disapprove 31% Somewhat Disapprove 15% *Denotes Rounding; ^Split Sample A, N=529; ^^Split Sample B, N=471 Somewhat Support 33% Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 21
Independents are supportive of the proposed reform, though not by a large margin. They do support tax reform in general. Tax Reform Support by Party +73 +35 +7-72 -74 Trump Proposal^ 80% 76% 82% 7% 57% 22% 43% 36% 4% 8% 96% Base GOP (18%) Soft/Lean GOP (22%) 91% Ind (17%) 82% 85% Soft/Lean Dem (20%) 61% Base Dem (22%) +95 +86 +73 +73 +31 Tax Reform Effort^^ 1% 5% 9% 12% 30% Base GOP (16%) Soft/Lean GOP (20%) Ind (17%) Soft/Lean Dem (22%) Base Dem (23%) ^Split Sample A, N=529; ^^Split Sample B, N=471 Approve/Support Disapprove/Oppose Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 22
Voters are split over whether the proposed tax code reform would help or hurt them and their families. As you may know, the president and Congress are considering the first major reforms of our tax code in thirty one years. If they are successful, do you think it would HELP you and your family, HURT you and your family, or make no difference to you and your family? Total Help 31%* Total Hurt 31% Don t Know 11% Help A Lot 17% No Difference 26% Help A Little 15% Hurt A Little 11% *Denotes Rounding Hurt A Lot 20% Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 23
GOPers say it will help, Dems say it will hurt, and older voters/inds say it will make no difference. Top Groups: Help (31%) Base GOP 66% Very Conservative 63% GOP Men 62% 2016 Trump Voters 58% GOP Age 55+ 57% GOP 56% GOP Age 18-54 55% Conservative 50% GOP Women 48% Soft/Lean GOP 47% Dads 45% Farm Belt Region 43% White Men 42% Hourly Male Workers 42% Mod/Lib GOP 41% Age 55-64 40% Men Age 55+ 40% Men w/o a Degree 40% Rural 40% Married Men 40% Men Age 35-54 39% Somewhat Conservative 39% Age 45-54 38% Midwest 37% Men 37% White 36% Great Lakes Region 36% Children in Home 36% Ind Age 55+ 35% $40-$80K Income 35% Married 35% Top Groups: Hurt (31%) Top Groups: No Difference (26%) Base Dem 60% African American 59% Dem Women 56% Dem Age 18-54 56% 2016 Clinton Voters 56% Dem 55% White Dems 54% Minority Women 54% Dem Age 55+ 54% Dem Men 53% Liberal 52% Soft/Lean Dem 50% Non-Whites 46% Women Age 18-34 43% Unmarried Women 42% Age 35-44 41% Women w/ a Degree 41% Urban 41% Women Age 35-54 40% Under $40K 40% Moms 39% New England Region 38% Hourly Female Workers 38% Northeast 36% Women 36% Minority Men 36% Moderate 36% Mid-Atlantic Region 35% Pacific Region 35% Unmarried 35% Men Age 65+ 40% Ind Men 39% Mod/Lib GOP 38% Ind 55+ 37% Age 65+ 35% Independent 34% Hispanic 33% Deep South Region 33% Retirees 33% Men Age 18-34 32% Women Age 65+ 32% Ind Age 18-54 32% South 31% Minority Men 31% Age 18-34 31% Unmarried Men 31% Men w/ a Degree 30% Moderate 30% Under $40K Income 30% Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 24
Voters, especially GOPers/conservatives, think that tax reform is essential to helping the country s economy. Somewhat Important 33% *Denotes Rounding Thinking further about tax reform, do you think tax reform is very important, somewhat important, not very important, or not at all important to helping our country s economy? Total Important 93%* Total Not Important 6% Not Very Important 4% Not At All Important 2% Very Important 61% Top Groups: Very Important (61%) Base GOP 88% Very Conservative 83% GOP Age 55+ 82% 2016 Trump Voters 82% GOP Men 80% GOP 77% Conservative 75% GOP Women 74% GOP Age 18-54 73% Age 55-64 70% Outer South Region 70% Hourly Female Workers 70% Soft/Lean GOP 69% Men Age 55+ 69% Mod/Lib GOP 69% Hourly Workers 68% South 67% HS or Less Education 67% Men w/o a Degree 67% Rural 67% Somewhat Conservative 67% Some College Education 66% Women w/o a Degree 66% Hourly Male Workers 66% Ind Age 55+ 65% Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 25
Tax Reform Trust
Voters trust Republicans in Congress over President Trump to enact reform that cuts taxes and simplifies the code. Now, I am going to read you a list of issues, and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think the Republicans in Congress/President Donald Trump or Democrats in Congress would do a better job of addressing the issue. GOP in Congress^ President Trump^^ +23 +11-11 +1 +0-20 52% 43% 47% 45% 44% 43% 43% 55% 29% 32% 36% 35% Cutting Taxes Simplifying the Tax System Making Our Tax System More Fair Cutting Taxes Simplifying the Tax System Making Our Tax System More Fair GOP in Congress Dem in Congress President Trump Dem in Congress ^Split Sample A, N=506; ^^Split Sample B, N=494 Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 27
Independents overwhelmingly trust GOPers in Congress to cut taxes and simplify the system, but trust Dems to make the system more fair. Addressing Tax Issues GOP in Congress vs. Dem in Congress GOP (40%) Ind (17%) TRUST GOP in Congress Dem in Congress D/S GOP in Congress Dem in Congress D/S Cutting Taxes 82% 4% +78 53% 21% +32 Simplifying the Tax System 73% 8% +65 46% 24% +22 Making our Tax System More Fair 74% 12% +62 24% 44% -20 Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 28
Independents trust President Trump over Dems in Congress, but by lesser margins than congressional Republicans. Addressing Tax Issues President Trump vs. Dem in Congress GOP (37%) Ind (17%) TRUST Pres. Trump Dem in Congress D/S Pres. Trump Dem in Congress D/S Cutting Taxes 81% 10% +71 45% 35% +10 Simplifying the Tax System 83% 9% +74 48% 28% +20 Making our Tax System More Fair 74% 17% +57 37% 53% -16 Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 29
More than nine-in-ten voters say the federal income tax system is complex. Intensity is very strong. How complex do you think the current federal income tax system is? Total Complex 91% Total Not Complex 7% Top Groups: Very Complex (57%) Somewhat Complex 34% Not Very Complex 5% Not At All Complex 2% Don't Know 1% Refused 1%* Very Complex 57% Very Conservative 78% Base GOP 77% GOP Age 55+ 76% Ind Age 55+ 76% Men Age 55+ 72% GOP Men 72% 2016 Trump Voters 72% GOP 71% Men Age 65+ 71% GOP Women 69% Conservative 68% Married Men 68% White Men 67% GOP Age 18-54 67% Soft/Lean GOP 66% Age 65+ 66% Grad/Prof Degree 66% Men w/ a Degree 66% Outer South Region 66% Age 55-64 65% Mod/Lib GOP 65% White 63% Women Age 65+ 63% Dads 63% Retirees 63% $80K+ Income 63% Married 63% Men 62% South 61% Age 34-54 61% Women Age 45-54 61% *Denotes Rounding Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 30
Tax Reform Contrast Statements
Voters are split over whether reform will help small business or the wealthy. Independents side with GOPers by six points. Now I am going to read you a series of statements about tax reform you might hear from Republicans and Democrats. After I read the statements from both sides, please tell me which statement comes closest to your own point of view. 49% Republicans say we have to reform the tax code because the middle class and small businesses are getting crushed by the current tax system. while GOP Dem D/S Base GOP 92% 6% +86 Soft/ Lean GOP 86% 13% +73 Ind 52% 46% +6 48% Democrats say all of the benefits of so called tax reform will go to the wealthy and large corporations, and the middle class will see very little benefit. Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 32
Voters, including Independents, are split over whether cutting corporate taxes will help American workers or executives more. Tax Reform Statements Continued 48% Republicans say reducing corporate taxes and simplifying the tax code will help American companies compete globally, invest more in the U.S., and hire more American workers. while GOP Dem D/S Base GOP 93% 5% +88 Soft/ Lean GOP 80% 18% +62 Ind 47% 47% +0 49% Democrats say that cutting corporate taxes will only benefit the top one percent of investors and executives, while workers and senior citizens would lose out. Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 33
Republicans and Independents largely favor a middle-class tax cut. Tax Reform Statements Continued 48% Republicans say that taxes on middle class working families should be lowered to increase their take home pay. while GOP Dem D/S Base GOP 92% 5% +87 Soft/ Lean GOP 73% 20% +53 Ind 53% 42% +11 47% Democrats say the Republican plan is a tax cut for the rich plan, and it will cut four hundred fifty billion dollars from Medicare and more than a trillion dollars from Medicaid. Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 34
Independents are split over whom companies will give the tax cut money to. Tax Reform Statements Continued 46% Republicans say the United States has the highest corporate tax rate in the industrialized world, causing many companies to send jobs overseas. Cutting the corporate tax rate will help businesses keep jobs in the United States and level the playing field with countries like China. while GOP Dem D/S Base GOP 89% 8% +81 Soft/ Lean GOP 76% 19% +57 Ind 47% 46% +1 49% Democrats say although Republicans argue corporations will give workers a raise if taxes are lowered, in fact, all they will do is give the money to top executives and shareholders. Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 35
Voters support Republican efforts to boost the middle class and ensure programs for seniors and the disabled continue to receive funding. Tax Reform Statements Continued 52% Republicans say that reforming the tax system and cutting taxes for ordinary taxpayers will give a boost to the middle class. They say any tax cuts and reforms should only be done if programs for senior citizens and the disabled are fully funded. while GOP Dem D/S Base GOP 93% 4% +89 Soft/ Lean GOP 85% 9% +76 Ind 54% 39% +15 43% Democrats say the Republican plan will add trillions of dollars to the national debt and cut important programs that help seniors and the disabled. Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 36
Voters, including Independents, are ready to see their first real pay raise in years through middle class tax cuts. Tax Reform Statements Continued 53% Republicans point out that most Americans have not seen a real pay raise in years, and by cutting taxes for middle class Americans, we can increase their take home pay and families will benefit. while GOP Dem D/S Base GOP 88% 5% +83 Soft/ Lean GOP 82% 13% +69 Ind 55% 35% +30 40% Democrats say the Republican plan would eliminate the deduction for state and local taxes, which would cause federal taxes to increase for nearly one out of three middle class taxpayers by as much as several thousand dollars. Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 37
Message Testing
Voters are very convinced by messages that show the system is outdated and rigged, and needs to be reformed to help small business. I would like to read you a number of different reasons people have given for SUPPORTING simplifying the tax code. For each one I read you, I would like you to tell me how convincing that statement is as a reason to SUPPORT simplifying the tax code very convincing, somewhat convincing, not too convincing, or not at all convincing. Our tax code is rigged in favor of large corporations that can pay accountants to help them evade taxes, and that rigged system hurts small businesses that are trying to compete with them. We should eliminate those loopholes and tricks and level the playing field so all businesses can compete. Ranked by % Very Convincing 56% 7% 15% 85%* The most important part of tax reform is to make the system simpler, fairer, and easier to understand. 52% 7% 16% 84% Nearly half of the jobs in this country are created by small businesses. If we lower their taxes, small business owners will invest that savings in their businesses, creating new jobs and helping their communities. That is better for America than sending the money to Washington. 51% 7% 16% 83% Because of our high tax rates and outdated rules, large companies that do business overseas often park their profits offshore to avoid paying a high tax here in the U.S. By reforming the tax system and changing this policy, we can return trillions of dollars to our economy and spur billions of dollars in new investments in struggling communities and throughout the nation. We need to bring that money home. 51% 10% 20%* 80% It has been more than thirty years since the last time there was major tax reform. The economy has changed so dramatically since then that it is time to modernize the tax system. 48% 7% 16% 84% *Denotes Rounding Very Convincing Total Convincing Not At All Convincing Total Not Convincing Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 39
These messages are also very effective. Our weakest message is that tax reform will stop jobs from going overseas. Supporting Statements Continued Ranked by % Very Convincing Tax reform is absolutely essential to helping American families, small businesses, and communities recover and grow again. This is about economic recovery. Doing nothing is not an option. 43% 12% 23% 77% If their taxes are cut, many companies will be able to create more jobs or increase worker pay. Creating more jobs and increasing worker pay is good for all Americans. 42% 14% 27% 72% The current tax system is hurting the economy, destroying jobs, and pushing down take home pay and must be fixed. 39% 14% 32% 68% Tax reform is the most important part of an economic plan that would help create more opportunity, increase take home pay, and help keep jobs in the United States. 36% 10% 26% 74% One of the reasons the US economy is suffering is because of unfair trade deals that result in lost jobs here in America. Tax reform will allow U.S. companies to be more competitive with Chinese companies and keep more jobs in the United States. 36% 19% 34%* 65% *Denotes Rounding Very Convincing Total Convincing Not At All Convincing Total Not Convincing Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 40
Top Messages Among Key Groups Ranked by % Very Convincing Base GOP (17%) Soft GOP (21%) Nearly half of the jobs in this country are created by small businesses. If we lower their taxes, small business owners will invest that savings in their businesses, creating new jobs and helping their communities. That is better for America than sending the money to Washington. Because of our high tax rates and outdated rules, large companies that do business overseas often park their profits offshore to avoid paying a high tax here in the U.S. By reforming the tax system and changing this policy, we can return trillions of dollars to our economy and spur billions of dollars in new investments in struggling communities and throughout the nation. We need to bring that money home. 84% 81% Because of our high tax rates and outdated rules, large companies that do business overseas often park their profits offshore to avoid paying a high tax here in the U.S. By reforming the tax system and changing this policy, we can return trillions of dollars to our economy and spur billions of dollars in new investments in struggling communities and throughout the nation. We need to bring that money home. Nearly half of the jobs in this country are created by small businesses. If we lower their taxes, small business owners will invest that savings in their businesses, creating new jobs and helping their communities. That is better for America than sending the money to Washington. 67% 67% If their taxes are cut, many companies will be able to create more jobs or increase worker pay. Creating more jobs and increasing worker pay is good for all Americans. 77% The most important part of tax reform is to make the system simpler, fairer, and easier to understand. 64% One of the reasons the US economy is suffering is because of unfair trade deals that result in lost jobs here in America. Tax reform will allow U.S. companies to be more competitive with Chinese companies and keep more jobs in the United States. 75% If their taxes are cut, many companies will be able to create more jobs or increase worker pay. Creating more jobs and increasing worker pay is good for all Americans. 56% Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 41
Top Messages Among Key Groups Ranked by % Very Convincing Ind (17%) White Women (37%) Our tax code is rigged in favor of large corporations that can pay accountants to help them evade taxes, and that rigged system hurts small businesses that are trying to compete with them. We should eliminate those loopholes and tricks and level the playing field so all businesses can compete. 59% Our tax code is rigged in favor of large corporations that can pay accountants to help them evade taxes, and that rigged system hurts small businesses that are trying to compete with them. We should eliminate those loopholes and tricks and level the playing field so all businesses can compete. 56% Nearly half of the jobs in this country are created by small businesses. If we lower their taxes, small business owners will invest that savings in their businesses, creating new jobs and helping their communities. That is better for America than sending the money to Washington. 55% Nearly half of the jobs in this country are created by small businesses. If we lower their taxes, small business owners will invest that savings in their businesses, creating new jobs and helping their communities. That is better for America than sending the money to Washington. 53% The most important part of tax reform is to make the system simpler, fairer, and easier to understand. It has been more than thirty years since the last time there was major tax reform. The economy has changed so dramatically since then that it is time to modernize the tax system. 52% 47% The most important part of tax reform is to make the system simpler, fairer, and easier to understand. Because of our high tax rates and outdated rules, large companies that do business overseas often park their profits offshore to avoid paying a high tax here in the U.S. By reforming the tax system and changing this policy, we can return trillions of dollars to our economy and spur billions of dollars in new investments in struggling communities and throughout the nation. We need to bring that money home. 52% 51% Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 42
Top Messages Among Key Groups Ranked by % Very Convincing Men Age 18-34 (16%) Women Age 55+ (23%) Nearly half of the jobs in this country are created by small businesses. If we lower their taxes, small business owners will invest that savings in their businesses, creating new jobs and helping their communities. That is better for America than sending the money to Washington. Our tax code is rigged in favor of large corporations that can pay accountants to help them evade taxes, and that rigged system hurts small businesses that are trying to compete with them. We should eliminate those loopholes and tricks and level the playing field so all businesses can compete. 54% 53% Our tax code is rigged in favor of large corporations that can pay accountants to help them evade taxes, and that rigged system hurts small businesses that are trying to compete with them. We should eliminate those loopholes and tricks and level the playing field so all businesses can compete. The most important part of tax reform is to make the system simpler, fairer, and easier to understand. 56% 54% Because of our high tax rates and outdated rules, large companies that do business overseas often park their profits offshore to avoid paying a high tax here in the U.S. By reforming the tax system and changing this policy, we can return trillions of dollars to our economy and spur billions of dollars in new investments in struggling communities and throughout the nation. We need to bring that money home. 51% Because of our high tax rates and outdated rules, large companies that do business overseas often park their profits offshore to avoid paying a high tax here in the U.S. By reforming the tax system and changing this policy, we can return trillions of dollars to our economy and spur billions of dollars in new investments in struggling communities and throughout the nation. We need to bring that money home. 52% The most important part of tax reform is to make the system simpler, fairer, and easier to understand. 47% It has been more than thirty years since the last time there was major tax reform. The economy has changed so dramatically since then that it is time to modernize the tax system. 50% Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 43
Top Messages Among Key Groups Ranked by % Very Convincing Men w/ a Degree (23%) Women w/o a Degree (25%) Our tax code is rigged in favor of large corporations that can pay accountants to help them evade taxes, and that rigged system hurts small businesses that are trying to compete with them. We should eliminate those loopholes and tricks and level the playing field so all businesses can compete. 50% Our tax code is rigged in favor of large corporations that can pay accountants to help them evade taxes, and that rigged system hurts small businesses that are trying to compete with them. We should eliminate those loopholes and tricks and level the playing field so all businesses can compete. 62% Nearly half of the jobs in this country are created by small businesses. If we lower their taxes, small business owners will invest that savings in their businesses, creating new jobs and helping their communities. That is better for America than sending the money to Washington. Because of our high tax rates and outdated rules, large companies that do business overseas often park their profits offshore to avoid paying a high tax here in the U.S. By reforming the tax system and changing this policy, we can return trillions of dollars to our economy and spur billions of dollars in new investments in struggling communities and throughout the nation. We need to bring that money home. The most important part of tax reform is to make the system simpler, fairer, and easier to understand. 49% 48% 47% Because of our high tax rates and outdated rules, large companies that do business overseas often park their profits offshore to avoid paying a high tax here in the U.S. By reforming the tax system and changing this policy, we can return trillions of dollars to our economy and spur billions of dollars in new investments in struggling communities and throughout the nation. We need to bring that money home. The most important part of tax reform is to make the system simpler, fairer, and easier to understand. Nearly half of the jobs in this country are created by small businesses. If we lower their taxes, small business owners will invest that savings in their businesses, creating new jobs and helping their communities. That is better for America than sending the money to Washington. 57% 56% 56% Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 44
Top Messages Among Key Groups Ranked by % Very Convincing Somewhat Conservative (20%) Moderate (38%) Nearly half of the jobs in this country are created by small businesses. If we lower their taxes, small business owners will invest that savings in their businesses, creating new jobs and helping their communities. That is better for America than sending the money to Washington. 64% Our tax code is rigged in favor of large corporations that can pay accountants to help them evade taxes, and that rigged system hurts small businesses that are trying to compete with them. We should eliminate those loopholes and tricks and level the playing field so all businesses can compete. 56% The most important part of tax reform is to make the system simpler, fairer, and easier to understand. Because of our high tax rates and outdated rules, large companies that do business overseas often park their profits offshore to avoid paying a high tax here in the U.S. By reforming the tax system and changing this policy, we can return trillions of dollars to our economy and spur billions of dollars in new investments in struggling communities and throughout the nation. We need to bring that money home. 60% 59% Because of our high tax rates and outdated rules, large companies that do business overseas often park their profits offshore to avoid paying a high tax here in the U.S. By reforming the tax system and changing this policy, we can return trillions of dollars to our economy and spur billions of dollars in new investments in struggling communities and throughout the nation. We need to bring that money home. Nearly half of the jobs in this country are created by small businesses. If we lower their taxes, small business owners will invest that savings in their businesses, creating new jobs and helping their communities. That is better for America than sending the money to Washington. 46% 46% Tax reform is absolutely essential to helping American families, small businesses, and communities recover and grow again. This is about economic recovery. Doing nothing is not an option. 57% The most important part of tax reform is to make the system simpler, fairer, and easier to understand. 46% Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 45
Top Messages Among Key Groups Ranked by % Very Convincing $40-$80K Income (30%) $80K+ Income (41%) Our tax code is rigged in favor of large corporations that can pay accountants to help them evade taxes, and that rigged system hurts small businesses that are trying to compete with them. We should eliminate those loopholes and tricks and level the playing field so all businesses can compete. 60% Our tax code is rigged in favor of large corporations that can pay accountants to help them evade taxes, and that rigged system hurts small businesses that are trying to compete with them. We should eliminate those loopholes and tricks and level the playing field so all businesses can compete. 54% The most important part of tax reform is to make the system simpler, fairer, and easier to understand. Because of our high tax rates and outdated rules, large companies that do business overseas often park their profits offshore to avoid paying a high tax here in the U.S. By reforming the tax system and changing this policy, we can return trillions of dollars to our economy and spur billions of dollars in new investments in struggling communities and throughout the nation. We need to bring that money home. Nearly half of the jobs in this country are created by small businesses. If we lower their taxes, small business owners will invest that savings in their businesses, creating new jobs and helping their communities. That is better for America than sending the money to Washington. 56% 56% 52% Nearly half of the jobs in this country are created by small businesses. If we lower their taxes, small business owners will invest that savings in their businesses, creating new jobs and helping their communities. That is better for America than sending the money to Washington. The most important part of tax reform is to make the system simpler, fairer, and easier to understand. Because of our high tax rates and outdated rules, large companies that do business overseas often park their profits offshore to avoid paying a high tax here in the U.S. By reforming the tax system and changing this policy, we can return trillions of dollars to our economy and spur billions of dollars in new investments in struggling communities and throughout the nation. We need to bring that money home. 51% 50% 48% Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 46
Top Messages Among Key Groups Ranked by % Very Convincing Married Women (28%) Unmarried Men (19%) Our tax code is rigged in favor of large corporations that can pay accountants to help them evade taxes, and that rigged system hurts small businesses that are trying to compete with them. We should eliminate those loopholes and tricks and level the playing field so all businesses can compete. 53% Our tax code is rigged in favor of large corporations that can pay accountants to help them evade taxes, and that rigged system hurts small businesses that are trying to compete with them. We should eliminate those loopholes and tricks and level the playing field so all businesses can compete. 52% The most important part of tax reform is to make the system simpler, fairer, and easier to understand. Because of our high tax rates and outdated rules, large companies that do business overseas often park their profits offshore to avoid paying a high tax here in the U.S. By reforming the tax system and changing this policy, we can return trillions of dollars to our economy and spur billions of dollars in new investments in struggling communities and throughout the nation. We need to bring that money home. Nearly half of the jobs in this country are created by small businesses. If we lower their taxes, small business owners will invest that savings in their businesses, creating new jobs and helping their communities. That is better for America than sending the money to Washington. 51% 50% 50% Nearly half of the jobs in this country are created by small businesses. If we lower their taxes, small business owners will invest that savings in their businesses, creating new jobs and helping their communities. That is better for America than sending the money to Washington. Because of our high tax rates and outdated rules, large companies that do business overseas often park their profits offshore to avoid paying a high tax here in the U.S. By reforming the tax system and changing this policy, we can return trillions of dollars to our economy and spur billions of dollars in new investments in struggling communities and throughout the nation. We need to bring that money home. It has been more than thirty years since the last time there was major tax reform. The economy has changed so dramatically since then that it is time to modernize the tax system. 51% 49% 44% Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 47
Messages for opposing reform are far less effective. Voters are concerned that it will add to the debt and give to the wealthy, but not overwhelmingly so. I would like to read you a number of different reasons people have given for OPPOSING simplifying the tax code. For each one I read you, I would like you to tell me how convincing that statement is as a reason to OPPOSE simplifying the tax code very convincing, somewhat convincing, not too convincing, or not at all convincing. Ranked by % Very Convincing The Republican plan will add trillions of dollars to the national debt and cut important programs that help seniors and the disabled. 29% 27% 44%* 54% To cut taxes on the wealthy and big corporations, the Republican plan will cut or end middle class tax deductions such as incentives for retirement savings, savings for college tuition costs, and home ownership deduction. The Republican plan will give to the rich with one hand but take away from the middle class with the other hand. 27% 25% 44%* 54% *Denotes Rounding Very Convincing Total Convincing Not At All Convincing Total Not Convincing Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 48
Voters show modest gains in confidence in GOPers to reform the code after messaging. And, now that you have heard some more information, I am again going to read you a list of issues, and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think the Republicans in Congress or Democrats in Congress would do a better job of addressing the issue. ^ +23 +11-11 Initial 52% 29% 43% 32% 36% 47% Informed +24 +18-9 55% 50% 31% 32% 39% 48% Cutting Taxes Simplifying the Tax System Making Our Tax System More Fair ^Split Sample A, N=506 GOP in Congress Dem in Congress Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 49
Voters also express slightly more confidence in Trump, though he still does not get over 50% on any of the issues. And, now that you have heard some more information, I am again going to read you a list of issues, and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think President Donald Trump or Democrats in Congress would do a better job of addressing the issue. ^^ +1 +0-20 Initial 55% 45% 44% 43% 43% 35% +6 +2-15 Informed 48% 42% 45% 43% 39% 54% Cutting Taxes Simplifying the Tax System Making Our Tax System More Fair ^^Split Sample B, N=494 President Trump Dem in Congress Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 50
Tax Reform Blame
Voters are split over who to blame if tax reform does not go through. And, if tax reform fails to happen, who would deserve most of the blame? All 7% Don't Know/ Not Sure 6% Refused 3%* President Trump 20% Special Interests 22% Republicans in Congress 22% Democrats in Congress 20% *Denotes Rounding Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 52
GOPers unsurprisingly will blame Dems. Indepdents and Democrats will point fingers at special interests and GOPers in Congress. Tax Reform Blame by Party Base GOP (17%) Soft/Lean GOP (21%) Independent (17%) Soft/Lean Dem (21%) Base Dem (22%) Democrats in Congress (54%) Democrats in Congress (31%) Special Interests (23%) Special Interests (28%) President Trump (35%) Republicans in Congress (15%) Special Interests (26%) Republicans in Congress (21%) Republicans in Congress (26%) Republicans in Congress (31%) Special Interests (12%) Republicans in Congress (18%) President Trump (16%) President Trump (25%) Special Interests (20%) President Trump (10%) President Trump (11%) Democrats in Congress (16%) Democrats in Congress (5%) Democrats in Congress (3%) Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 53
Messages That Work
MESSAGES THAT WORK Tax reform is very important to helping our country s economy. The current federal income tax system is too complex and needs to be simplified. Because of our high tax rates and outdated rules, large companies that do business overseas often park their profits offshore to avoid paying a high tax here in the U.S. By reforming the tax system and changing this policy, we can return trillions of dollars to our economy and spur billions of dollars in new investments in struggling communities and throughout the nation. We need to bring that money home. Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 55
MESSAGES THAT WORK Tax cuts and reforms should only be done if programs for senior citizens and the disabled are fully funded. Reforming the tax system and cutting taxes for ordinary taxpayers will give a boost to the middle class. Our tax code is rigged in favor of large corporations that can pay accountants to help them evade taxes, and that rigged system hurts small businesses that are trying to compete with them. We should eliminate those loopholes and tricks and level the playing field so all businesses can compete. Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 56
MESSAGES THAT WORK Most Americans have not seen a real pay raise in years, and by cutting taxes for middle class Americans, we can increase their take-home pay and families will benefit. The most important part of tax reform is to make the system simpler, fairer, and easier to understand. Nearly half of the jobs in this country are created by small businesses. If we lower their taxes, small business owners will invest that savings in their businesses, creating new jobs and helping their communities. That is better for America than sending the money to Washington. Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 57
The Bottom Line
THE BOTTOM LINE Tax reform is an issue that is broadly supported by Republican voters, modestly supported by Independent voters, and not supported by Democrats. The big picture about how voters feel about the direction of the country and the president s approval rating is all very problematic. Posting a win on tax reform can help improve the mood of voters. A majority of voters say that either major changes or a complete overhaul of the tax system is needed, with Republicans most likely to feel that way. The top priority for voters is to get rid of loopholes to ensure the rich pay their fair share. That is important to Independents and Democrats. Republicans focus on modernizing our tax code to create jobs and get our economy growing again. On the open-end comments, Republican voters want to get rid of loopholes, simplify taxes, and implement a flat tax. Independents also focus on getting rid of loopholes, but also say the wealthy should pay more and tax breaks are needed for the middle class. Asked how a fairer tax system would be different than the current system, Republicans say no loopholes for the wealthy/corporations, a flat tax, and a simplified tax code. Independents have similar views, but also place a high importance on tax cuts for the middle class. Respondents are evenly divided over whether tax code reforms will help or hurt them and their families. Republicans say it will help, and Democrats say it will hurt. Voters DO think that tax reform is important to helping our country s economy. Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 59
THE BOTTOM LINE Republicans in Congress are far more trusted than Democrats to cut taxes and to simplify the tax system. President Trump does not fare as well when matched up against congressional Democrats. The Democrats in Congress have the upper hand on making the tax system more fair. Matched up against Democrat messaging on tax reform, the GOP messaging either ties or does quite well. Independents tend to opt for the GOP messaging. There are also a number of separate messages we tested that scored very well. The focus of voters is tax reform that is populist (helps the middle class, closes loopholes for the wealthy/big business, and is much simpler). If tax reform fails, Republicans are inclined to blame congressional Democrats, while Independents say it would be the fault of special interests and Republicans in Congress. There are some Republican voters who would blame GOPers in Congress. Tax Reform National Survey October 19-22, 2017 60
For more information about this presentation or about Public Opinion Strategies, please give us a call. Glen Bolger glen@pos.org Turning Questions Into Answers 214 N. Fayette St. Alexandria, Virginia 22314 (703) 836-7655 - Phone (703) 836-8117 - Fax