CREDIT OPINION Sparbanken Syd Update to credit analysis Update Summary We assign a baa baseline credit assessment (BCA), a baa adjusted BCA and baa1 long-term deposit and issuer rating to Sparbanken Syd. We also assign an A(cr)/ P-2(cr) long-term and short-term Counterparty Risk Assessment (CR Assessment). The outlook assigned to the bank's long term deposit and issuer ratings is negative. RATINGS Sparbanken Syd Domicile Sweden Long Term Debt Not Assigned Long Term Deposit Baa1 Type LT Bank Deposits - Fgn Curr Outlook Negative Please see the ratings section at the end of this report for more information. The ratings and outlook shown reflect information as of the publication date. The Baa1/P-2 issuer and deposit ratings reflect the balance between the bank s BCA of baa and the two notch uplift received from the cushion of loss absorbing obligations to creditors as indicated by Moody's advanced loss give failure (LGF) analysis. The BCA reflects the bank's good asset risk and, strong capitalisation, as well as low profitability, and a weakened funding situation due to the termination of a partnership to mediate mortgages. The CR Assessment of A/P-2 benefits from a three notch uplift from the bank s BCA, under the LGF approach due to the cushion of issued debt as well as the large volumes of junior deposits. Exhibit 1 Rating Scorecard - Key Financial Ratios Analyst Contacts Sparbanken Syd (BCA: baa) Jean-Francois 44-2-7772-565 Tremblay Associate Managing Director jean-francois.tremblay@moodys.com Sean Marion 44-2-7772-156 MD-Financial Institutions sean.marion@moodys.com CLIENT SERVICES Americas 1-212-55-165 Asia Pacific 852-551-77 Japan 81--548-41 EMEA 44-2-7772-5454 Solvency Factors Louise Eklund 46-8-525-6569 Associate Analyst louise.eklund@moodys.com Median baa-rated banks % % 25% 25% 2% 2% 15% 15% 1% 1% 5% 5% % 1.1% 19.2% 1.1% 27.2% % -.1% -5% -5% Asset Risk: Problem Loans/ Gross Loans Capital: Tangible Common Equity/Risk-Weighted Assets Solvency Factors (LHS) Source: Moody s Banking Financial Metrics Profitability: Net Income/ Tangible Assets Funding Structure: Market Funds/ Tangible Banking Assets Liquid Resources: Liquid Banking Assets/Tangible Banking Assets Liquidity Factors (RHS) Liquidity Factors Niclas Boheman 44-2-7772-164 AVP-Analyst niclas.boheman@moodys.com
Credit strengths» Sparbanken Syd s BCA benefits from Sweden s Strong+ Macro Profile» Good asset quality, albeit with geographic and sector concentration» Sound capitalisation, but limited capacity to raise new equity capital in case of urgent need» Sizeable liquidity portfolio and large volumes of deposits Credit challenges» Deteriorating funding profile following termination of a partnership agreement to mediate mortgages» Weak profitability and cost efficiency compared with peers in the Nordics Rating outlook The negative outlook on Sparbanken Syd's ratings reflects the uncertainty regarding the bank's overall strategy, beyond the near term funding issues reflected in the downgrade of the BCA. Although the bank has alternatives, including setting up a standalone secured funding program, chasing more deposits or establishing new partnerships, Moody's estimates that the alternatives will likely incur higher costs and may have broader negative implications on the bank's earnings, capital generation capacity and growth strategy in the highly competitive Swedish mortgage market. Factors that could lead to an upgrade» Because of the negative outlook, an upgrade is unlikely, but factors that could lead to a return to a stable outlook include a combination of (1) setting up a long-term funding solution for its mortgage book while maintaining sustainable levels of profitability and capitalisation to support its future growth, and(2) maintaining its liability structure and its loss absorption cushion to creditors. Factors that could lead to a downgrade» Sparbanken Syd's ratings could be downgraded if (1) the bank is unable to set up a viable long-term funding solution; (2) asset risk deteriorates; () profitability deteriorates; (4) increased exposure to high risk sectors; (5) a change in the liability structure with a smaller cushion of loss absorbing obligations. This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history. 2
Key indicators Exhibit 2 Sparbanken Syd (Unconsolidated Financials) [1] Total Assets (SEK million) Total Assets (EUR million) Total Assets (USD million) Tangible Common Equity (SEK million) Tangible Common Equity (EUR million) Tangible Common Equity (USD million) Problem Loans / Gross Loans (%) Tangible Common Equity / Risk Weighted Assets (%) Problem Loans / (Tangible Common Equity + Loan Loss Reserve) (%) Net Interest Margin (%) PPI / Average RWA (%) Net Income / Tangible Assets (%) Cost / Income Ratio (%) Market Funds / Tangible Banking Assets (%) Liquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets (%) Gross Loans / Due to Customers (%) 12-172 12-162 12-152 12-142 1,144 1,2 1,29 1,169 119 14.8 19.2 5. 1.7.5. 88. 1.1 27.2 94.1 9,68 978 1,1 1,141 119 126 1. 17.5 6. 1.8 -.5 -.2 11. 7.7 22.7 98.1 9,171 1,1 1,88 1,127 12 14 1.5 17.5 8.4 1.9 -.1 -.1 1.2 11.6 24.1 11.8 8,196 865 1,47 1,12 116 141 1.7 18.4 9. 2..9. 81. 1. 19. 19.1 21 CAGR/Avg. - 7.44 6.4 5.84 2.4.74.54 1.25 18.16 7.5 1.95.26.15 96.45 9.95 2.5 1.75 [1] All figures and ratios are adjusted using Moody's standard adjustments [2] Basel III - fully-loaded or transitional phase-in; IFRS [] May include rounding differences due to scale of reported amounts [4] Compound Annual Growth Rate (%) based on time period presented for the latest accounting regime [5] Simple average of periods presented for the latest accounting regime. [6] Simple average of Basel III periods presented Source: Moody's Financial Metrics Profile Sparbanken Syd is Sweden s oldest savings bank, primarily operating in Skåne county in the southernmost parts of Sweden. After nearly 2 years of operations, the bank is well established in the region among retail as well as corporate customers. Sparbanken Syd is the only independent savings bank in Sweden and the bank does not have any shareholders, in accordance with its structure as a savings bank. As of 1 December 217, the bank reported total assets of SEK1,144 million ( 1,2 million). Detailed credit considerations Sweden's Strong + Macro Profile incorporated in Sparebanken Syd's BCA The bank's ratings incorporate our assessment of Sweden s macro profile of Strong +1, reflecting a diverse and competitive economy, robust public institutions and a stable political environment that supports consensus-oriented policy making. However, we view Swedish household debt levels and the multi-year growth of household debt, as key vulnerabilities to the financial system, as reflected in our Macro Profile. Loss of a key funding channel requires Sparbanken Syd to fundamentally reconsider strategy, beyond the near term funding issues In late November 217, SBAB Bank AB (publ) (LT Bank Deposits A1 stable/senior Unsecured A1 stable, BCA baa1), a key funding partner of Sparbanken Syd, unilaterally decided to terminate an asset purchase program it had established with Sparbanken Syd to fund the bank's mortgages. The termination of the funding arrangement is negative in that the ability to sell mortgages and mediate them to SBAB has been a central part of Sparbanken Syd's funding profile, with most of the bank's mortgages, representing over 5% of the bank's total lending, being funded through this channel. The partnership had enabled Sparbanken Syd to mediate its mortgages to SBAB for a commission, thereby moving them off-balance sheet, reducing funding needs, as well as reducing credit risk and capital requirements, while maintaining the customer relationship. Under the terms of the termination, the bank has two years to come up with a different strategy and decide whether it will buy back, or not, outstanding mortgages it has placed through SBAB. Recent developments create uncertainty regarding the bank's overall strategy, beyond the near term funding issues, as reflected in the downgrade of the bank s BCA in December 217 (see Press Release). Although the bank has alternatives, including setting up a standalone secured funding program, chasing more deposits or establishing new partnerships, we estimate that the alternatives will
likely incur higher costs and may have broader negative implications on the bank's earnings, capital generation capacity and growth strategy in the highly competitive Swedish mortgage market. This uncertainty translates into a negative adjustment for corporate behavior in our Scorecard, as reflected in the assigned BCA of baa. Improving asset risk with decreasing levels of loan losses, but change of strategy might alter the asset risk profile of the bank. Asset quality is strong by global standards and improving, as demonstrated by a declining ratio of problem loans to gross loans, to.8% at end-december 217 from 1.45% at end-december 215. Given the supportive operating environment, Moody's expects asset quality will continue to improve, while the bank's loan book, however, will continue to feature some geographic and sector concentration risks. The overall low asset risk of the bank is underpinned by a very low cost of risk of - 6 bps in 217, which reflects the reversal of loan loss provisions. The loan loss coverage of around 5% at end-december 217 is somewhat below peers and declined from 67% at end-december 216. Nevertheless, the bank features exposures toward SMEs, which can be of higher risk in a downturn, which represent around half of the risk the bank retains on its balance sheet. The bank's strategy to expand its retail mortgage business will be monitored over the outlook period, and we expect that there are challenges to pursue this strategy. Most mortgages are mediated through a third-party partner bank, but as the partnership has been terminated, the strategy will be difficult to pursue without first increasing capital and putting in place funding alternatives. The partnership agreement has a two year termination period, and the bank can continue mediating loans during this period. At the end of this period, in November 219, Sparbanken Syd has the option to buy back these mortgages. An eventual deterioration in the stock of mediated loans would not contribute to an increased level of problem loans or loan loss provisions. Rather, any realised loss on a mortgage is reflected in lower fee income, up to.5% of the bank's mediated loan volumes during one year. As of end-december 217, the mediated loan volumes were around SEK8.8 billion, an increase of 19% compared to the around SEK7.5 billion as of year-end 216. This solution allows the bank to manage its capital more conservatively, as the mediated loans do not require capital cover. Furthermore, we expect limited expansion in the bank s commercial real estate and agricultural portfolio, which is to some degree constrained by access to capital and the low capital generation of the bank. Exhibit Sparbanken Syd's asset quality is improving from elevated levels Problem Loans / Gross Loans Cost of Risk (Loan loss provisions /Gross loans) - RHS.% 1.8%.28% 1.6%.25% 1.4%.2%.17% 1.2%.15% 1.%.8%.1% 1.66% 1.45%.8%.6%.5%.6% 1.4%.8%.4%.%.67% -.5%.2% -.6% -.1%.% 214 215 216 217 Nordic Savings Banks* Note: * Average of Moody's rated Nordic Savings banks (including Skandiabanken AB and Länsförsäkringar Bank) as of December 217. Source: Moody s Banking Financial Metrics Since 211, when the current management was appointed, a more rigorous credit process has been implemented, resulting among other improvements in slower on balance sheet growth. Stricter requirements on the board members levels of expertise were also implemented at that time. Corporate governance and formalized risk management processes have had a high priority in the last five years and ultimately resulted in decreased credit losses and improved asset quality. That said, similarly to other local savings bank, Sparbanken Syd remains deeply vested in the local community, where it also has a social role to promote local sports and recreational clubs. Accordingly, although this profile and strategy are beneficial for attracting and retaining business, Moody s notes that the bank might be prone to keep supporting businesses in a downturn, thereby increasing risks in difficult times. 4
The Asset Risk Score of baa2 reflects the low amounts of problem loans and the improving trend, and also a comparably higher ratio of problem loans than Swedish peers with geographic and sector concentration risks. Strong capitalisation constrained by limited internal capital generation and access to new capital Sparbanken Syd s capitalisation is strong, with tangible common equity over risk weighted assets of 19.2% and tangible common equity over total assets of 11.5% at end-december 217. However, due to moderate profitability, internal capital generation is weak. Attempts to bring more mortgages on balance sheet will likely result in lower capitalisation but could also be managed by raising Additional Tier 1 capital, without changing the nature of the bank. The bank reported a CET1 ratio of 19.2% at end-december 217 and a total capital adequacy ratio of 21.7% (17.5% and 19.8% respectively at end-december 216). The bank has a sizeable headroom above its regulatory minimum CET1 requirement of 14%, including a pillar 2 requirement of 1.5% at year-end December 217. The bank's internal capital adequacy target is a minimum of 16.1%, which would give a 2.1% buffer above the requirements. Sparbanken Syd applies the standardized approach to measuring credit risk. We expect that raising additional capital in times of stress could be challenging given the bank s organisational structure as a savings bank without strategic corporate shareholders or direct capital markets access. Exhibit 4 Sparbanken Syd's demonstrates strong capital metrics Note: *Average of Moody's rated Nordic Savings banks (including Skandiabanken AB and Länsförsäkringar Bank) as of December 217. Source: Moody s Banking Financial Metrics Based upon our assessment of the bank s capitalisation, we assign Sparbanken Syd a Capital Score of a, reflecting high capitalisation but also a lack of capital access. Four notches of negative adjustments are incorporated to reflect the bank s lack of capital access. Recovering profitability as IT costs decrease, could be challenged going forward As a pure savings bank, Sparbanken Syd operates with lower expectations of return on equity than a commercial bank, which partly explains the lower profitability, but mainly, also by the lack of economies of scale which will make it difficult for the bank to improve its profitability significantly. Going forward we expect increased costs relating to finding strategic solutions for its stock of mediated mortgages and managing its balance sheet. Profitability has been under pressure during 214-216 as a result of the low interest margins and IT related investments. During 217, the bank's profitability recovered in line with expectations due to lower IT costs, reducing costs by approximately SEK8 million per annum. Net income to tangible assets increased to.% for the year 217 compared to -.2% for full-year 216 ( after adjustments for one-offs). In 215 and 214 net income to tangible assets was -.1% and.% respectively. The pressure on the bank s net interest margins, which decreased to 1.7% in the 217 ( 1.8% in full-year 216) from 2.% in 214 is explained by the low interest rate environment and increased competition. Net interest income has decreased in the between 214-16 due to the low interest environment and strong competition, in contrast to net fee and commission income, which has increased as a result of larger volumes of mediated mortgages and mutual fund services. 5
More than half of the bank's revenues are derived from the SME segment whilst remaining revenues are generated by the bank s onbalance sheet retail loans. We assign Sparbanken Syd a Profitability Score of b, taking into account our expectations on the profitability pressure the bank is likely to face going forward. Deposits fund on balance sheet loan book but termination of partnership to fund retail book reveals weakness The bank s funding profile is characterized by a sizeable deposit base to fund its on balance sheet lending, but it depends on the partnership to mediate loans off balance sheet. The 12 month deposit growth at end-december 217 of 6% is sound but nevertheless insufficient to fully meet the bank s growing funding needs. The amount of mediated loans off-balance sheet (approximately SEK8.8 billion at end-december 217) is greater than the volume of loans retained by the bank on-balance sheet. The termination of the partnership to mediate mortgages implies that the bank has two years to find alternative means to fund this portfolio, or let it go. At end-december 217 deposits represented around 86% of non-equity funding (around 89% at end-december 216 ). We note that the mediation of household mortgages currently depends on the single, terminated partnership, without which the bank will have to fund itself through alternative means, either on its own balance sheet, or with another partner. We expect Sparbanken Syd to gradually increase its dependence on market funding to be able to take a higher share of mortgages on balance sheet. In June 217, the bank issued SEK million in senior unsecured debt resulting in SEK85 million total amount of senior unsecured debt outstanding at end-december 217. Furthermore, the bank has a SEK15 million subordinated bond maturing in 224. The increased reliance on wholesale funding is mirrored in Sparbanken Syd s higher market funding ratio of 1.1% at end-december 217 compared to the 7.7% at end-december 216. We assign the bank a funding structure score of baa2, incorporating four negative notches, reflecting the balance of a large deposit base, and the challenges following the termination of the funding arrangement. Liquid assets provide buffers to increasing wholesale funding We assign Sparbanken Syd a Liquidity Score of baa1, reflecting a large stock of high quality liquid assets. Sparbanken Syd has a strong liquidity reserve, composed of a stock of high quality liquid assets, mainly composed of highly rated covered bonds and government securities, resulting in liquid assets to tangible banking assets of 27.2% at end-december 217. Additionally, Sparbanken Syd has a low concentration among deposits, which further underpins the bank s liquidity position. Support and structural considerations Affiliate support Sparbanken Syd is an independent savings bank, meaning that we do not expect the bank to benefit from any affiliate support. Loss Given Failure We apply our advance Loss-Given-Failure (LGF) analysis on Sparbanken Syd as the bank is subject to the EU Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD), which we consider to be an Operational Resolution Regime. For this analysis we assume that equity and losses stand at % and 8%, respectively, of tangible banking assets in a failure scenario. We also assume a 25% run-off of junior wholesale deposits and a 5% run-off in preferred deposits. Moreover, we assign a 25% probability to junior deposits being preferred to senior unsecured debt. These are in line with our standard assumptions. We assume the bank's junior deposits to account for 26% of total deposits, in line with banks with a diversified deposit base. Based on Sparbanken Syd's balance sheet structure at end-december 217, our Advanced LGF Analysis indicates a two notch of LGF uplift for the long-term issuer and deposit ratings above the BCA of baa due to the cushion of subordinated debt and the volumes of senior unsecured debt. Government support Sparbanken Syd s national market share in lending on own book is small at around.6% at end-december 217. If we include the mediated loans as well, the bank s national market share is around.14%. Given the limited scope of the bank s operations and its low 6
national market share in lending, we assume a low probability of government support in case of need. As a result, Sparbanken Syd s deposit and/or issuer rating does not benefit from any uplift due to government support. Counterparty Risk Assessment CR Assessments are opinions of how counterparty obligations are likely to be treated if a bank fails, and are distinct from debt and deposit ratings in that they (1) consider only the risk of default rather than expected loss and (2) apply to counterparty obligations and contractual commitments rather than debt or deposit instruments. The CR Assessment is an opinion of the counterparty risk related to a bank's covered bonds, contractual performance obligations (servicing), derivatives (e.g., swaps), letters of credit, guarantees and liquidity facilities. The CR Assessment takes into account the issuer's standalone strength as well as the likelihood of affiliate and government support in the event of need, reflecting the anticipated seniority of these obligations in the liabilities hierarchy. The CR Assessment also incorporates other steps authorities can take to preserve the key operations of a bank, should it enter a resolution. The CR Assessment is positioned at A(cr)/P-2(cr). The CR Assessment is positioned three notches above the adjusted BCA of baa, based on the cushion against default provided by junior deposits, senior unsecured, and subordinated debts and does not benefit from any government support. About Moody's bank scorecard Our Scorecard is designed to capture, express and explain in summary form our Rating Committee's judgment. When read in conjunction with our research, a fulsome presentation of our judgment is expressed. As a result, the output of our Scorecard may materially differ from that suggested by raw data alone (though it has been calibrated to avoid the frequent need for strong divergence). The Scorecard output and the individual scores are discussed in rating committees and may be adjusted up or down to reflect conditions specific to each rated entity. 7
Rating methodology and scorecard factors Exhibit 5 Sparbanken Syd Macro Factors Weighted Macro Profile Strong + Factor Solvency Asset Risk Problem Loans / Gross Loans Historic Macro Ratio Adjusted Score Credit Trend Assigned Score Key driver #1 Key driver #2 Geographical concentration 1.1% aa baa2 Sector concentration Capital TCE / RWA 19.2% aa2 a Access to capital Profitability Net Income / Tangible Assets.% caa1 b Expected trend Combined Solvency Score Liquidity Funding Structure Market Funds / Tangible Banking Assets 1.1% a2 Liquid Resources Liquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets a baa 27.2% a Combined Liquidity Score Financial Profile Business Diversification Opacity and Complexity Corporate Behavior Total Qualitative Adjustments Sovereign or Affiliate constraint: Scorecard Calculated BCA range Assigned BCA Affiliate Support notching Adjusted BCA a2 Balance Sheet in-scope (SEK million) 1,91 7,749 5,74 2,15 85 15 4 1,144 Other liabilities Deposits Preferred deposits Junior Deposits Senior unsecured bank debt Dated subordinated bank debt Equity Total Tangible Banking Assets 8 1% baa2 Expected trend baa1 Expected trend Extent of market funding reliance baa2 baa -1-1 Aaa baa-ba2 baa baa % in-scope 1.8% 76.4% 56.5% 19.9% 8.4% 1.5%.% 1% at-failure (SEK million) 1,881 6,959 5,448 1,511 85 15 4 1,144 % at-failure 18.5% 68.6% 5.7% 14.9% 8.4% 1.5%.% 1%
Debt class Counterparty Risk Assessment Deposits Instrument class Counterparty Risk Assessment Deposits De Jure waterfall De Facto waterfall Notching LGF Assigned Additional Preliminary LGF notching Rating Instrument Sub- Instrument SubDe Jure De Facto Notching Guidance notching Assessment volume + ordination volume + ordination vs. subordination subordination Adjusted BCA a (cr) 4.5% 12.9% 2 2 2 baa1 Loss Given Failure notching 2 Additional Preliminary Rating Notching Assessment a (cr) baa1 Government Support notching Local Currency Rating A (cr) Baa1 Foreign Currency Rating -Baa1 Source: Moody's Financial Metrics Ratings Exhibit 6 Category SPARBANKEN SYD Outlook Bank Deposits Baseline Credit Assessment Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment Counterparty Risk Assessment Issuer Rating ST Issuer Rating Moody's Rating Negative Baa1/P-2 baa baa A(cr)/P-2(cr) Baa1 P-2 Source: Moody's Investors Service Endnotes 1 Sweden's Macro Profile: Strong+ 9
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Analyst Contacts 11 CLIENT SERVICES Niclas Boheman 44-2-7772-164 AVP-Analyst niclas.boheman@moodys.com Louise Eklund Associate Analyst louise.eklund@moodys.com 46-8-525-6569 Jean-Francois Tremblay 44-2-7772-565 Associate Managing Director jean-francois.tremblay@moodys.com Sean Marion MD-Financial Institutions sean.marion@moodys.com 44-2-7772-156 Americas 1-212-55-165 Asia Pacific 852-551-77 Japan 81--548-41 EMEA 44-2-7772-5454