Economic Outlook and Housing Market Forecast NVAR Housing Finance Summit Terry L, Clower, Ph.D. Director, Center for Regional Analysis Schar School of Policy and Government George Mason University May 24 2017
110 90 70 50 30 10 Annual Job Change - Washington MSA MOTYC Non-Farm Jobs 000 s 000 s -10 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3,300 3,250 3,200 3,150 3,100 3,050 3,000 2,950 2,900 2,850 Apr 16- Apr 17 +38 K Apr-17 Total: 3,268 K
(000s) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0-5 -10-15 -20 Federal Government Washington MSA 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis (000s) 390 385 380 375 370 365 360 355 350 345 Apr 16- Apr 17 +1,000 MOTYC Total Jobs Apr-17 Total: 367K
(000s) 25 Professional & Business Services Washington MSA 760 20 15 10 5 0-5 -10 740 720 700 680 660 640 Apr 16- Apr 17 +12.8K MOTYC Total Jobs -15 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Apr-17 Total: 750.3K 620
(Ranked by Size in 2016) Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs Federal Govt. State & Local Govt Leisure & Hosp. Retail Trade Other Services Construction Financial Information Transp. & Util. Wlse Trade Manufacturing -3.4 Job Change by Sector Apr 2016 Apr 2017 Washington MSA -0.5-0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 0.7 3.6 (000s) Total = 38,000 5.0 7.8 10.8 12.8-6 -4-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
50 40 30 20 10 0-10 Annual Job Change Northern VA MOTYC Non-Farm Jobs 000 s 000 s -20 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1,480 1,460 1,440 1,420 1,400 1,380 1,360 1,340 1,320 1,300 1,280 Apr 16- Apr 17 +20.4K Apr-17 Total: 1,458 K
(Ranked by Size in 2016) Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Federal Govt. Other Services Financial Construction Transp. & Util. Information Wlse Trade Manufacturing Job Change by Sector Apr 2016 Apr 2017 Northern Virginia -3.4-0.6-0.4 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis (000s) Total 20,400 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.5 2.7 5.9 10.2-6 -4-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Population Change Elements of Population Change Washington MSA 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0-20,000-40,000 1.9% 1.6% 1.5% 1.1% +1.0% +0.9% 22,979 5,525 3,827 37,714 38,895 36,749 40,119 42,240 40,581 49,005 49,178 47,773 48,669 46,424 43,886-26,362-29,417-31,010 Net Domestic Migration Net Int'l Migration Natural Increase 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, V2016
Employment Change in the WMSA by Sub-State Area (000s) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 D.C. 13.4 5.2 15.9 13.0 9.7 10.6 8.9 8.2 Sub. MD 7.2 10.2 12.5 14.4 17.7 14.1 12.0 11.0 No. VA 9.2 0.8 29.8 31.0 23.6 15.9 13.7 12.6 REGION 28.1 18.6 57.7 55.6 51.0 40.6 34.6 31.8 Source: BLS, IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (December 2016) NOTE: The regional totals do not include Jefferson, WV. Average Annual Change 1990-2016 = 37,300
Where are we? We are growing: Some diversification Recent job growth across all wage levels Growth will continue in 2017, but at a moderating pace Uncertainty reigns! Advantages Government Center International Institutions Connectivity to the World High Quality-of-Life Diverse Population Higher Education Educated Work Force Challenges Drain the swamp/sequester Further market shifts Cost of living/business Mobility Regional cooperation Globally competitive? Understanding changing nature of jobs
Median House Sales Price (000s) 700 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Washington MSA) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Arlington) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Alexandria City) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Fairfax County) 600 500 400 300 200 100 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 Fairfax County Housing Market Outlook 2,000 1,500 Housing Sales (units) $600,000 Median Sales Price 1,000 500 - $400,000 $200,000 $- 6,000 4,000 2,000 - Housing Inventory (month end) Md Price Sales Inventory Dec 16-17 5.8% 3.1% 6.0% May 17-18 3.0% 2.9% 2.4%
Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 Arlington County Housing Market Outlook 400 300 200 100 Housing Sales (units) $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 Median Housing Prices - $200,000 $- 1,000 Housing Inventory (month end) Md Price Sales Inventory 500 Dec 16-17 2.6% 9.1% 9.9% - May 17-18 0.2% 6.5% 8.9%
Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 Alexandria Housing Market Outlook 400 300 200 100 - Housing Unit Sales $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $- Median Housing Price 800 600 400 200 - Housing Inventory (month end) Md Price Sales Inventory Dec 16-17 -2.5% -5.6% 24.2% May 17-18 4.9% 3.6% 20.7%
Thank You Questions cra.gmu.edu