Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook Center for Regional Analysis Schar School of Policy and Government George Mason University August 22, 218
6. U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change Real GDP (Billions) $19, % 5. 4. 3. 2. 1.. -1. $18, $17, $16, $15, $14, $13, $12, $11, -2. 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 $1, Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (Seasonally Adjusted, Chained 212 Dollars ) 217 +2.3% 218Q2 +4.2%
(s) 4 Annual Change in Payroll Jobs US Month-Over-Year 2 July= +2.4M -2-4 -6-8 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 (s) 7 5 3 1-1 -3-5 -7-9 US Payroll Job Change Month-to-Month July= +157K Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 US Payroll Jobs Month-to-Month Change (s) Total (Millions) 213 214 215 216 217 218 15 145 14 135 13 125 217-218 2.4M July +157K Since 21 +19.3 M Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Ranked by Size in 217 Educ & Health Svcs Prof. & Bus. Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Manufacturing Financial Construction Wholesale Trade Other Services Transp. & Util. Federal Govt. Information Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector July 217 July 218-11 -21 19 77 96 89 16 161 (s) -1 1 2 3 4 5 6 254 38 327 Total = 2,4, 427 518
U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector June 218 July 218 Ranked by Size in 217 Educ & Health Svcs Prof. & Bus. Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Manufacturing Financial Construction Wholesale Trade Other Services Transp. & Util. Federal Govt. Information -15-5 -5-1 2 7 12 (s) 19 22 37 4 51 Total = +157K Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis -2-1 1 2 3 4 5 6
% U.S. Unemployment Rate 1 8 6 4 2 July= 3.9 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted)
U.S. Unemployment 15 U-6 UR LFPR 1 5 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 65 July 7.5% July 3.9% July 62.9% Jul17 to Jul18 U-6-1.% UR -.4% 6 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted)
7 65 6 55 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 (s) Initial Claims for Unemployment 4-Week Moving Average July 28: 219K Source: Department of Labor, seasonally adjusted
Initial Claims for Unemployment 4-Week Moving Average (s) 5 45 4 35 July 28: 219K 3 25 2 Source: Department of Labor
Average Weekly Earnings U.S., Total Private, Across all Industries $1, $9 $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ Average Weekly Earnings Real Average Weekly Earnings (1982-1984 dollars) July 17 July 18 Avg Hourly Wages +2.% July 17 July 18 Avg Weekly Earnings +3.% July 17 July 18 Real Avg Weekly Earnings +.1% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
6 5 4 3 2 1-1 Labor Productivity Nonfarm business, seasonally adjusted QOTYC Productivity Index 12 1 8 6 4 2 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Base year (1) = 29
Consumer Confidence 18 16 14 12 1 8 Current Situation Expectations July 218 Cur. = 165.9 Exp. = 11.7 (1985 = 1) 6 4 2 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
5. 4. 3. 2. 1. - Consumer Prices 21-22 Forecast > > > (1.) 22 219 218 217 216 215 214 213 212 211 21 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Economics October 216
8. Interest Rates 21-216 % 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1.. 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 3-Yr 1-Yr Treas Fed Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Percentage points 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 Only false signal 1-yr./1-yr. yield spread '59 '62 '65 '68 '71 '74 '77 '8 '83 '86 '89 '92 '95 '98 '1 '4 '7 Source: FRB Dallas
1-yr./1-yr. yield spread 4. 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. -.5 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Source: U.S. Treasury, Yield Curve for Treasury Nominal Coupon Issues (TNC yield curve), which is derived from Treasury nominal notes and bonds
U.S. New and Existing Home Sales Jun 17 Jun 18-2.2% (s) 7, 6,5 6, 5,5 Existing (Left Axis) (s) 1 9 8 7 5, 6 Jun 17-4,5 4, New (Right Axis) 5 4 Jun 18 +2.4% +15K 3,5 3, 2,5 3 2 1 2, Source: U.S. Census (New)(Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), National Association of Realtors (Existing)
Growth in Total Consumption Outlays 6 5 Forecast > > > > 4 3 2 3.1 3.8 3.5 3 2.2 1.9 2.3 1.5 1.5 2.9 3.2 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.3 1-1 -2 -.3-1.6 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics October 216
% 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 -2-25 U.S. Economic Performance Percent Annual Change Forecast > > > > > > GDP Non-Res: Structures Bus. Inv.-Eq & Sfwr Residential Fixed State & Local Federal Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics October 216
24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 $/barrel 12 1 8 6 4 2 Oil Prices $ per barrel Forecast > > > > > Source: IHS Economics October 216
4 2 1.8 % 2.5 U.S. GDP 27 216 22 (Annual % Change) 1.6 2.2 1.7 2.6 2.9 1.5 2.3 2.2 2.8 1.2 % -2-4 -.3-2.8 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: January, 217
The Washington Economy
Population Change Elements of Population Change Washington MSA 12, +2.% +1.7% +1.5% +1.1% +1.% +1.% +1.1% 1, 8, 6, 23,864 6,843 3,143 37,183 39,715 39,358 41,48 45,41 45,66 44,76 4, 2, 49,16 49,169 47,79 48,651 47,832 44,882 42,616-2, -4, Net Domestic Migration Net Int'l Migration Natural Increase -23,29-31,483-31,492-21,543 21-211 211-212 212-213 213-214 214-215 215-216 216-217 Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, V217
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 (s) 15 Annual Job Change MOTYC Washington MSA 1 5-5 -1 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
11 Annual Job Change - Washington MSA MOTYC Non-Farm Jobs s s 3,4 9 7 5 3 1 3,3 3,2 3,1 3, 2,9 July 17- July 18 +77.1K -1 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2,8 July-18 Total: 3,36 K
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 (s) 4 Annual Job Change MOTYC District of Columbia 3 2 1-1 -2-3 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
25 Annual Job Change District of Columbia MOTYC Non-Farm Jobs s s 82 2 15 1 5 8 78 76 74 72 7 July 17- July 18 +7.4 K 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 68 July-18 Total: 83 K
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 (s) 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 Annual Job Change MOTYC Suburban Maryland Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
3 Annual Job Change Suburban MD MOTYC Non-Farm Jobs s s 1,4 25 2 15 1 5-5 1,2 1, 98 96 94 92 9 July 17- July 18 +13.7K -1 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 88 July 18 Total: 121 K
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Annual Job Change MOTYC Northern Virginia (s) 8 6 4 2-2 -4 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
5 Annual Job Change Northern VA MOTYC Non-Farm Jobs s s 1,55 4 3 2 1-1 1,5 1,45 1,4 1,35 1,3 July 17- July 18 +28.2K -2 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1,25 July-18 Total: 1,493 K
Employment Composition by Sector July 218 Washington MSA Professional & Business Services Education & Health Services Federal Government State & Local Government Leisure & Hospitality Retail Trade Other Services Construction Financial Activites Information Transportation & Utilities Wholesale Trade Manufacturing 2.2% 2.1% 1.9% 1.7% 5.% 4.8% 6.4% 1.8% 1.% 1.5% 8.3% 13.1% 23.2% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics % 5% 1% 15% 2% 25% 34
(Ranked by Size in 217) Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs Federal Govt. State & Local Govt Leisure & Hosp. Retail Trade Other Services Construction Financial Information Transp. & Util. Wholesale Trade Manufacturing -4.8 Job Change by Sector July 217 July 218 Washington MSA -.3..7 2. 3. 2.9 3.8 6. (s) Total = 77,1 12.4 11.8 17.1 22.5-1 -5 5 1 15 2 25 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
(Ranked by Size in 217) Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs Federal Govt. State & Local Govt Leisure & Hosp. Retail Trade Other Services Construction Financial Information Transp. & Util. Wlse Trade Manufacturing Job Change by Sector June 218 July 218 Washington MSA (s) Total = 2,9-3.9-3.4-1.3-1.5 -.9..5.4.7 1.2 1.2 2. 7.9-6 -4-2 2 4 6 8 1 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
(s) 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 Professional & Business Services Washington MSA 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8 78 76 74 72 7 68 66 64 62 6 July 17- July 18 +22.5K MOTYC Total Jobs July-18 Total: 779.2K
(s) 25 Professional & Business Services Washington MSA Month Over the Year Change Prof., Sci. & Tech. Svcs & Mgt. Admin. & Waste Mgt. 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
(s) 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 -2 Federal Government Washington MSA 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 (s) 39 385 38 375 37 365 36 355 35 345 July 17- July 18-4,8 MOTYC Total Jobs Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis July-18 Total: 364K
$ Billions 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Federal Procurement in the Washington MSA 198-217 (Fiscal Years) 82.4 TOTAL = $1,388.5 Billion 79.9 76.3 77.6 71.2 75. 69.1 71.1 Source: US Census, Consolidated Federal Funds Report and USAspending.gov
(Ranked by Size in 217) Federal Govt. Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs Leisure & Hosp. Other Services State & Local Govt Financial Retail Trade Information Construction Transp. & Util. Wholesale Trade Manufacturing -3.4 Job Change by Sector July 217 July 218 District of Columbia -1.3 (s) Total 7,4.2.1.3.4.7.6.8 1. 1.7 2.9 3.4-4 -2 2 4 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
(Ranked by Size in 217) Federal Govt. Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs Leisure & Hosp. Other Services State & Local Govt Financial Retail Trade Information Construction Transp. & Util. Wlse Trade Manufacturing -2. Job Change by Sector June 218 July 218 District of Columbia -.1 -.1.1.2.2...1..4 1.5 (s) Total 8,7 8.4-4 -2 2 4 6 8 1 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
(Ranked by Size in 217) Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Federal Govt. Construction Financial Other Services Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Transp. & Util. Information -1.5 -.9 -.5 Job Change by Sector July 217 July 218 Suburban Maryland -.3 -.1 -.1.2.7 (s) Total: 13,7 1.9 2.2 3.3 3.6 5.2-2 -1 1 2 3 4 5 6 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
(Ranked by Size in 217) Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Federal Govt. Construction Financial Other Services Manufacturing Wholesale_Trade Transp. & Util. Information -7. Job Change by Sector June 218 July 218 Suburban Maryland (s) Total: - 5,4-1.1 -.7 -.3 -.5 -.1 -.1...3.9 1.4 1.8-8 -7-6 -5-4 -3-2 -1 1 2 3 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
(Ranked by Size in 217) Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Federal Govt. Other Services Financial Construction Transp. & Util. Information Wholesale Trade Manufacturing -2.1 Job Change by Sector July 217 July 218 Northern Virginia -.1...8 1.1 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis (s) Total 28,2 1.8 1.9 3.3 2.9 3. -4-2 2 4 6 8 1 12 6. 9.6
(Ranked by Size in 217) Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Federal Govt. Other Services Financial Construction Transp. & Util. Information Wholesale Trade Manufacturing -15.6 Job Change by Sector June 218 July 218 Northern Virginia -3.1 (s) Total: -11,7 -.5-1.2 -.1 -.4.6 2..7..6.1-2 -15-1 -5 5 1 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5.2
Unemployment Rates in the WMSA By Sub-State Area 12 1 8 6 4 6. DC 4.2 SMD 3.9 U.S. 3.7 MSA 2.7 NVA 2 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US Seasonally Adjusted)
Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services WMSA Payroll Job Change: Private Sector The Great Recession and Recovery Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. -34-24 -23-49 31-8 23 Total -181-1 9 Total 345-12 -1-7 -5-1 -75-5 -25 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Aug 28-Feb 21 Feb 21-Sep 216 (s) 1 2 5 4 72 8 84
5. 4.5 4. 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. 15 Largest Job Markets Ranked by Unemployment Rate June 218 3.7 US: 4. Jun 17- Jun 18 WSH -.3% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US Seasonally Adjusted)
(s) 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change: July 217 July 218 Washington +77,1 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
4.% 3.5% 3.% 2.5% 2.% 1.5% 1.%.5%.% 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change: July 217 July 218 Washington +2.3% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
(s) 3.% 2.5% 2.% 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change: 216 217 Washington + 1.6% 1.5% 1.%.5%.% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
(s) 4.% 3.5% 3.% 2.5% 2.% 1.5% 1.%.5%.% -.5% 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change: 215 216 Washington + 1.9% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
(s) 4.5% 4.% 3.5% 3.% 2.5% 2.% 1.5% 1.%.5%.% 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change: 214 215 Washington + 1.9% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
(s) 4.% 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change: 215 216 3.5% 3.% 2.5% Washington + 1.8% 2.% 1.5% 1.%.5%.% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
4 2 % U.S. GDP and Washington Area GRP 27 216 22 (Annual % Change) U.S. % -2 Washington -4 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: January, 217
% % Economic Outlook (GRP), 27-22 Washington Area and Sub-State Areas (Annual % Change) 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 NV MSA SM DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: April 216
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Employment Change in the Washington MSA (Thousands of Jobs) Annual Totals 27.6 17.2 55.7 59.2 5.9 4.6 34.6 31.8 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (March 218) Average Annual Change 199-216 = 39,8
8 7 Employment Change in the Washington MSA (Thousands of Jobs) Dec-Dec 74.1 6 5 4 3 32.7 53.2 37.8 4.6 34.6 31.8 2 1 6.9 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (March 218)
Employment Change in the WMSA by Sub-State Area (s) Annual Totals 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 D.C. 13.4 5.2 15.9 13.7 7.5 1.6 8.9 8.2 Sub. MD 7.5 9.7 1.6 13.4 12.8 14.1 12. 11. No. VA 9.2.8 29.8 28.9 22.6 15.9 13.7 12.6 REGION 27.6 17.2 55.7 59.2 5.9 4.6 34.6 31.8 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (March 218) NOTE: The sub-state totals do not include Jefferson, WV. Average Annual Change 199-217 = 38,9
Employment Change in the WMSA by Sub-State Area (s) (Dec Dec) 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 D.C. 11.8 7. 2.5 5.4 7.7 1.6 8.9 8.2 Sub. MD 4.1 16.5 11.2 17.2-3.9 14.1 12. 11. No. VA -5.7 8.3 44.9 19.8 25.6 15.9 13.7 12.6 REGION 6.9 32.7 74.1 53.2 37.8 4.6 34.6 31.8 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (March 218) NOTE: The sub-state totals do not include Jefferson, WV.
Long commutes diminish quality of life Proportion of workers with travel time to work of 6 or more minutes New York Washington SF-Oakland Atlanta Chicago Boston Los Angeles Seattle Philadelphia Houston Miami Dallas United States Phoenix Detroit Minneapolis 5.5% 14.5% 14.1% 13.8% 13.3% 12.2% 11.6% 11.2% 1.7% 9.3% 9.1% 7.6% 7.2% 17.8% 17.2% 21.8% % 5% 1% 15% 2% 25% Source: US Census Bureau, 216 American Community Survey, Table S82 62
Annual change in Metrorail Average Weekday Passenger Boardings Metrorail ridership is in decline 15.% 1.% 5.% DC Maryland All Metro Alexandria Arlington Fairfax.% -5.% -1.% -15.% 21-11 211-12 212-13 213-14 214-15 215-16* Source: Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA)
64
The contributions of foreign-born, non-citizen workers to the Washington region s workforce 67
Source: 216 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) files 68
Most Foreign Born, Non-Citizens originate from Latin America El Salvador 23.5% India Guatemala Mexico Honduras 6.2% 6.1% 5.8% 5.6% Ethiopia China Bolivia Philippines Canada Bangladesh 3.1% 3.% 2.9% 2.7% 1.%.7% % 5% 1% 15% 2% 25% Proportion of Total Foreign-Born, Non-Citizen Workers Source: US Census Bureau ACS 216, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 69
Source: 216 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) files 7
Majority of foreign-born, non-citizen workers have been here 1 years or more 6% 5% 4% Year of Entry, Non Citizen Foreign Born Workers MWCOG Region 48.3% 3% 2% 1% % 22.2% 17.2% 8.4%.2%.5% 1.5% 1.8% before 196 196-1969 197-1979 198-1989 199-1999 2-29 21-214 215 or later Source: US Census Bureau ACS 216, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 71
Percentage of Workers Foreign-born, non-citizen workers are about as likely to have a post-secondary degree as all workers nationwide 35% 3% 29.4% Non-Citizen, Foreign-Born Workers Greater Washington Region Workforce 25% 27.4% 25.8% 2% 2.9% 22.7% 15% 16.% 16.2% 16.% 17.5% 1% 5% 8.2% % Less than High School High school diploma/ged Source: US Census Bureau ACS 216, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Associates degree or Some College Bachelors Degree Graduate or Professional Degree 72
Several occupational groups rely heavily on foreign-born, non-citizen workers Foreign-Born, Non-Citizen Workers % of Total Occupation Workforce Occupation Group Construction & extraction 65,94 52.4% Cleaning & maintenence 52,75 48.6% Farming, fishing, & forestry 1,15 38.% Food preparation & serving 43,77 32.6% Production 14,22 28.% Healthcare support 1,3 21.6% Personal care & service 21,16 21.3% Transportation & material moving 22,87 2.7% Life, physical, & social science 1,89 18.1% Installation, maintenance, & repair 9,19 16.6% Sales 33,99 14.1% Computer & mathematical 21,52 1.1% Healthcare practitioners 11,42 8.7% Financial specialists 8,7 8.6% Office & administrative support 27,98 8.6% Source: 216 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) files 73
Housing Market Trends
Thousands 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 Inventories of Existing Homes Month-Over-Year 21 218, MSA % Chg Inv Inventory 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 July -3.2% Source: Bright MLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis. Total monthly inventory includes listings active at the end of the month plus sales during the month.
14. 12. 1. 8. 6. 4. 2. - (2.) (4.) (6.) Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes Month-Over-Year 2 217, MSA July -3.2% Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis. Total monthly inventory includes listings active at the end of the month plus sales during the month.
16, Existing Home Sales Washington MSA Through July 218 14, 12, 1, 8, 12-Month Moving Average 8,588 July 218 6, 4, 2, 218 217 216 215 214 213 212 211 21 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 2 1999 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
2, 1,5 1, 5-5 -1, -1,5-2, Existing Home Sales Washington MSA Month-Over-Year Change +22 July 218 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
3, Washington MSA Building Permits 211 218, 3-Month Moving Avg 2,5 2, 1,5 June 1,946 1, 5 Source: Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
4, 35, (s) Inventory and Permits Washington MSA Inventory Permits 4, 3,5 3, 3, 25, 2,5 2, 2, 15, 1,5 1, 1, 5, 5 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
8% 6% (s) MOTY Change in Existing Sales and Permits Washington MSA (12 month Moving Average) Permits Existing Home Sales 4% 2% % -2% -4% Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
(s) 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 (s) Median House Sales Price Washington MSA $433 K July 218 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Median House Sales Price (s) 7 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Washington MSA) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Arlington) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Alexandria City) 6 5 4 3 2 1 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
(s) 7 Median House Sales Price Washington MSA Arlington 6 $68K 5 4 $433 K July 218 3 2 1 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Median House Sales Price ($s) 7 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Arlington) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Fairfax County) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Loudoun County) 6 5 4 3 2 1 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Number of Sales ($s) 21 19 17 15 13 11 9 7 5 3 1 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Arlington) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Fairfax County) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Loudoun County) Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
14 12 1 8 6 4 2-2 Median Sales Price Percent Change (MOTYC) Washington MSA -4 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
% 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4 3 2 6 6 9 3 4 4 Average Sales Price Percent Change (MOTYC) Washington MSA 7 8 1 14 6 11 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 4 5 9 8 3 5 2 2 1 2-1 5 1 5 4-6 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2 1-1 1 3 4-2 -3 1-1 2 2 1-1 3 6 7 6 4 5 3 4 2 2 4 6 5 2 3 4 3 3 2 July= $487K
% 2 15 1 5-5 1 8 8 14-3 -4 4 Average Sales Price Percent Change (MOTYC) District of Columbia 13 7 14 13 1 8 4 6 2 15 11 5 17 4 5-5 1 11-1 12 11 6 4-1 -6 12 1 7 5 5 1 1-2 3 1 9 8 6-1 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis -1-3 -2 5 1 1 4-2 11 2-1 -3 4 11 14 9-1 5 6 9-7 -5 3 2 11-6-6-2 17-1 -4 July = $689K
Average Sales Price Percent Change (MOTYC) Suburban Maryland 2 15 1 % 5-5 -4-2 -1 11 1 5 4 11 9 6 14 4 1111 8 11 12 12 1 6 9 1 5 12 13 5 4 1-2 2 4 4-3 2 1-3 1 1-1-1 3-1 3-4 5-1 5-2 2 4 2-4 7 1 3 8 8 6 6 5 5 6 4 3 2 2 2 1-2 7 1 7 5 4-1 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis July = $411K
% 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4 4 2 9 5 7 3 5 5 3 6 Average Home Sales Price Percent Change (MOTYC) Northern Virginia 1 13 1 9 9 9 8 7 6 4 8 1 2 6 4 5 1 3 1 2 2 4-1 2 4 5 8 4 4 2-1 2 3 2-4 -2 2-1 1 1-1 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 2-6 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7 2 4 4 3 3 2 3 July = $55K
Total Listings Per Sale Sep Each Year 25 2 15 PG 1 5 - MONT ARL PW FFX LDN DC Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Total Active Listings Per Sale February Each Year Metro Area 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
(%) MOTY Change 12 per. Mov. Avg. ($ Sales) (s) $8 2 Average Home Sales Price Northern VA - Single Family Detached 15 1 5-5 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis July 218 = $677,769, +2.9%
(%) MOTY Change 12 per. Mov. Avg. ($ Sales) (s) $5 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 Average Home Sales Price Northern VA - Single Family Attached $45 $4 $35 $3 $25 $2 $15 $1 $5 $ 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis July 218= $457,172, + 3.6%
(%) MOTY Change 12 per. Mov. Avg. ($ Sales) (s) $4 25 Average Home Sales Price Northern VA - Condos 2 15 1 5-5 $35 $3 $25 $2 $15 $1 $5-1 $ 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis July 218 = $327,58, + 4.%
6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 Average Home Sales Price DC- Single Family Detached (%) MOTY Change 12 per. Mov. Avg. ($ Sales) (s) $1,4 $1,2 $1, $8 $6 $4 $2 $ 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis July 218= $1,17,318, - 2.8%
(%) MOTY Change 12 per. Mov. Avg. ($ Sales) (s) $9 4 Average Home Sales Price DC- Single Family Attached 3 2 1 $8 $7 $6 $5-1 -2-3 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis July 218= $748,92, -2.6%
(%) MOTY Change 12 per. Mov. Avg. ($ Sales) (s) $7 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 -2 Average Home Sales Price DC- Condos 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis July 218= $512,97, -2.5% $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $
Where are we? We are growing: Some diversification Some catch-up Recent job growth across all wage levels Growth will continue in 217, but at a moderating pace Advantages Government Center International Institutions Connectivity to the World Concentration of Leaders Access to capital High Quality-of-Life Diverse Population Higher Education Educated Work Force Advanced Occupational Specializations Challenges Drain the swamp/sequester Further market shifts needed Cost of living/doing business Mobility Access to capital Regional branding / cooperation Globally competitive? Understanding changing nature of jobs Productivity
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