Sourcing Outlook for the Fashion Industry Julia K. Hughes USFIA Washington Trade Symposium July 30, 2015
First, let s take a look at the data and trends
Sourcing Trends for 2014 In 2014, imports grew 5% in all categories: Apparel +3% Fabric +10% Made-Ups +4% Yarn +4% U.S. apparel imports hit a record high of 25.6 billion SME
Sourcing Trends for 2015 In the first five months of 2015, imports grew even faster up 7.9% for total imports: Apparel +5% Fabric +8% Made-Ups +10% Yarn +13% U.S. apparel imports hit a new record of 26.1 billion SME
Top Apparel Suppliers YE May 2015 Rank Country Million SME Million $ % Share % Growth 1 China 10,963.3 29,889.1 41.9 5.7 2 Vietnam 2,919.9 9,767.0 11.1 14.6 3 Bangladesh 1,676.9 4,974.7 6.4 0.7 4 Indonesia 1,222.8 4,800.1 4.6-1.6 5 Honduras 1,104.4 2,635.6 4.2 4.2
Top Apparel Suppliers YE May 2015 Rank Country Million SME Million $ % Share % Growth 6 Cambodia 1,014.6 2,447.0 3.8-3.6 7 India 991.9 3,537.0 3.7 7.9 8 Mexico 926.8 3,729.6 3.5 1.9 9 El Salvador 780.6 1,920.4 2.9-1.4 10 Pakistan 583.9 1,465.2 2.2-1.7
Fastest-Growing Apparel Suppliers Country Rank % Growth Vietnam 2 14.6 Jordan 18 12.2 Kenya 21 14.1 Burma 43 168.8
Trend #1: China remains the dominant supplier 7% increase in past 12 months China is the dominant supplier to the United States in all categories: 41% of apparel 37% of fabric 20% of yarns 67% of made-ups
Trend #2: But Vietnam continues to grow. 2 nd largest supplier of apparel to the United States with 11% of market 4 th largest supplier of fabrics to the United States with 7% of market Apparel imports growing by double digits since 2013
Trend #3: Companies may be cautious about Bangladesh. In 2014, U.S. imports from Bangladesh decreased, though we did see an increase in December. Apparel imports are coming back so that current imports are at the same level as one year ago.
Trend #4: Companies continue to look for apparel sourcing opportunities closer to home. Honduras ranks #5 Mexico is #8 El Salvador is #9 Nicaragua ranks #11 but long-term growth may depend on outlook for the Nicaragua TPL extension
Trend #4: Companies continue to look for apparel sourcing opportunities closer to home. Western Hemisphere duty-free opportunities include: CAFTA-DR Colombia FTA NAFTA Chile FTA CBTPA Panama FTA Haiti Help and HOPE Made in USA Peru FTA
The Truth About Made in America Speed-to-market, especially for fashionforward clothing and teens/millennials Small volume orders, test orders, LDP because the costs and challenges are the same anywhere so you might as well avoid shipping and logistics fees Cost not a driver, but not necessarily a huge barrier anymore Factory and labor compliance still a concern!
Despite high duties, companies aren t utilizing FTAs or preference programs. Only 15% of apparel imports to the United States were duty free in 2014 This represents a slight decrease from 2013, when 16% of apparel imports to the United States were duty free According to our benchmarking study, most FTAs and preference programs have a utilization rate of 20% or lower
U.S. Free Trade Agreements FTA Entered Force Israel September 1, 1985 NAFTA January 1, 1994 Jordan December 17, 2001 Chile January 1, 2004 Singapore January 1, 2004 Australia January 1, 2005 Morocco January 1, 2006 CAFTA March 1, 2006 Bahrain August 1, 2006 Oman January 1, 2009 Peru February 1, 2009 Korea March 15, 2012 Colombia May 15, 2012 Panama October 31, 2012
2014 Apparel Preference Trade CAFTA FTA Qualifying (47.30%) NAFTA FTA Qualifying (30.01%) Jordan FTA Qualifying (7.90%) AGOA FTA Qualifying (7.20%) CBTPA FTA Qualifying (6.25%) Peru FTA Qualifying (4.42%) Egypt FTA Qualifying (4.39%) South Korea FTA Qualifying (1.40%) Colombia FTA Qualifying (1.33%) Bahrain FTA Qualifying (0.97%) Morocco FTA Qualifying (0.38%) Israel FTA Qualifying (0.28%) Oman FTA Qualifying (0.05%) Chile FTA Qualifying (0.05%) Australia FTA Qualifying (0.04%) Singapore FTA Qualifying (0.002%) Panama FTA Qualifying (0.002%)
Why don t companies use FTAs? It ultimately comes down to cost of compliance and relevance to companies supply chains. In this era of GVCs, it s often cheaper and easier to source from trusted factories and ship your inputs and products all over the world, rather than find new factories and deal with the compliance issues.
Why don t companies use FTAs? When I took the broker exam, the general notes to the HTS were just 35 pages. Today, the general notes are 425 pages, and predominantly all stipulations of the FTAs and preference programs. -Benchmarking Survey Participant
Why don t companies use FTAs? When companies utilize FTAs and preference programs, they now expect to get an origin review by U.S. Customs at some point, resulting in an overseas paper chase that s not a high priority for the supplier. -Benchmarking Survey Participant
Why don t companies use FTAs? We have a small amount of production in NAFTA countries, but we don t even claim the duty-free treatment because the requirements to qualify and the burden of proof on the company are simply too onerous. -Benchmarking Survey Participant
What are our key issues?
Advocacy Priorities for 2015 21 st -century rules and market access in all free trade negotiations Promote U.S. jobs including high quality design, product development, logistics, sourcing, and service jobs as well as manufacturing jobs Eliminate duties on consumer products
Advocacy Priorities for 2015 Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) African Growth & Opportunity Act (AGOA) Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) Nicaragua Tariff Preference Level (TPL) Bahrain Tariff Preference Level (TPL) Morocco Tariff Preference Level (TPL) Nepal Trade Preferences Act Cumulation of fashion, textile and apparel products in existing free trade agreements
Trans-Pacific Partnership
Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Total Apparel Only Million $ % Share Million $ % Share World 109,104.8 100.00 82,785.9 100.00 TPP Total 18,335.3 16.79 15,271.5 18.46 Vietnam 10,459.6 9.59 9,767.0 11.80 Mexico 4,789.5 4.39 3,729.6 4.51 Canada 1,376.5 1.26 585.9 0.71 Peru 620.4 0.57 582.4 0.70 Malaysia 549.1 0.50 520.4 0.63 Japan 440.4 0.40 43.6 0.05 New Zealand 26.5 0.02 0.6 0.00 Australia 35.7 0.03 15.3 0.02 Singapore 16.0 0.01 14.7 0.02 Chile 16.8 0.02 7.2 0.01 Brunei 4.3 0.00 4.3 0.01
U.S. Apparel Imports from TPP Countries (By Value in Millions) Mexico, $3,730, 24% Rest of TPP, $86, Malaysia, $520, Canada, $586, 1% 3% 4% Peru, $582, 4% Vietnam, $9,767, 64% Country Value % Share Japan $43.6 0.28% Singapore $14.7 0.09% Australia $15.3 0.10% Chile $7.2 0.04% Brunei $4.3 0.02% New Zealand $0.6 0.004% $86.0 0.53%
Transatlantic Trade & Investment Partnership (TTIP)
Transatlantic Trade & Investment Partnership (TTIP) Austria Germany Poland Belgium Greece Portugal Bulgaria Hungary Romania Croatia Ireland Slovakia Cyprus Italy Slovenia Czech Republic Latvia Spain Denmark Lithuania Sweden Estonia Luxembourg United Kingdom Finland Malta France Netherlands
U.S. Apparel Imports from EU by Value Category % of Total Apparel 443 Men s & Boy s Wool Suits 7.7 636 MMF Dresses 7.2 435 Women s & Girls Wool Coats & Jackets 5.6 433 Men s & Boys Wool Suit-Type Coats 5.3 659 MMF Other Apparel 5.2 The top five categories represent 31% of the U.S. apparel imports from the E.U.
African Growth & Opportunity Act (AGOA)
African Growth & Opportunity Act (AGOA) Extended until September 30, 2025 Third-Country Fabric represents 98% of apparel imports under AGOA
3.00% Sub-Saharan Africa Market Share of U.S. Apparel Imports 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% Quantity Value 1.00% 0.50% 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0.00%
THANK YOU! Julia K. Hughes +1 202 419 0444 jhughes@usfashionindustry.com www.usfashionindustry.com @usfashion