Tanker Market Outlook - PDF Free Download

Tanker Market Outlook Market Update Autumn 2009 Dec 08., 2009 120 000 Suezmax Bonny - USAC Average Earnings Modern 100 000 80 000 USD/day 60 000 40 000 20 000-98Q1 99Q1 00Q1 01Q1 02Q1 03Q1 04Q1 05Q1 06Q1 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 2009Q3 Base Case Suezmax - TD5 History Imarex Robert Stenvik, Senior Partner, 4Q 2009

50 000 45 000 40 000 35 000 Product 37 000 dwt Cont - USAC (TC2) Average Earnings Modern USD/day 30 000 25 000 20 000 15 000 10 000 5 000-98Q1 99Q1 00Q1 01Q1 02Q1 03Q1 04Q1 05Q1 06Q1 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 2009Q3 Base Case Product - TC2 History Imarex 4Q 2009

The ViaMar Method: An Interactive Market and Risk Evaluation Process Retainer Retainer service service We We offer offer to to commit commit ourselves ourselves to to your your company company in in a a close close relationship relationship to to present present our our evaluation, evaluation, analysis analysis and and opinions opinions on on all all determinants determinants of of the thefuture market market balance balance and and the the future future of of shipping shipping markets. markets. Our Our philosophy philosophy is is that that modern modern shipping shipping companies companies are are dependant dependant upon upon a a continuous continuous analysis analysis and and dialog dialogin in order order to to assess assess the the current current and and future future market market situation situation and and take take the the right right decision decision at at the the right right time. time. Therefore Therefore our our service service consists consists of of four four quarterly quarterly presentations, presentations, continuous continuous market market monitoring monitoring and and direct direct access accessin in between between our our meetings. meetings. ViaMar s Base Case On-site Presentation & Discussion Client Alternative Scenario Choices Risk Evaluation Decision 4Q 2009

What We Can Offer Based on on the the partners extensive shipping experience as as managers, analysts and and brokers, we we are are in in a unique position to to offer offer in-depth market analysis and and strategic advice for: for: The The bulk bulk carrier and and tanker markets, including product carriers The The LPG LPG and and petrochemical gas gascarrier market Container shipping markets Shipbuilding market and and secondhand prices Finally, we we can can offer: Investments and and divestment calculations Dynamic ship ship value models 4Q 2009

ViaMar Key Macro Economic Assumptions - Unchanged: The financial crisis seems be resolved - The gigantic measures by many governments have restored confidence in the financial markets - focus on monitoring to avoid setback. We are not heading towards a depression, and according to the Fed the recession in the US is over. - Financial and monetary stimulus will continue to support growth. - Key issue will be when to pull back stimulus. - Unprecedented global stimulus to find traction in 2H09. - A below normal and soft recovery 4Q 2009

China: Month-on-month loan growth cooling off as announced? Juli down 77% from June, 71% below 1st 6 month average Aug down 73% from June, 67% below 1st 6 month average China, Monetary Financial Institutions, Uses of Funds, Loans, CNY 2,00 c.o.p val 1 month 410,35754G China, Monetary Financial Institutions, Uses of Funds, Loans, CNY 38,52411888T 1,75 1,50 CNY (thousand billions) 1,25 1,00 0,75 0,50 0,25 0,00-0,25 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 c.o.p val 1 month Source: Reuters EcoWin 4Q 2009

China: Domestic Economy Responding to Massive Stimulus Efforts %-growth (annual) 14,0 13,0 12,0 11,0 10,0 9,0 8,0 7,0 GDP Growth - China Forecast from 4. quarter 2009 6,0 00,1 01,1 02,1 03,1 04,1 05,1 06,1 07,1 08,1 09,1 10,1 11,1 12,1 3.qtr.Base 4.qtr.Base Forecast period Economic activity continued to increase in the 3.qtr. with real GDP growing at 8.9% y-o-y (Q2; 7,9%). Aggressive economic stimulus package to boost economic activity by letting public spending and especially investments take over where exports and private investments failed. Industrial Production rose 16,1% in October up from 13,9% the previous month - up substantially compared to the beginning of this year with just below 10% growth in production. Nominal Retail sales in October rose a robust 16.2% y-o-y, even faster growth than previous months. Fix Asset Investment posted a solid gain of 33,1% during the first 10 months. After exports reached bottom in February, it has increased 70%, supported by strong stimulus abroad. However, exports are still down by 13,8% y-o-y. During the same period imports are up with 69%, indicating strong domestic demand. 2009-2010: Supported by aggressive stimulus the economy will continue it s strong rebound. We expect growth to peak in early 2010, and then remain around 10-11% annual growth throughout the forecasting period. Domestic Demand will lead a strong economic recovery. but a solid rebound and sustainable recovery to high growth is dependent on the global economy to initiate a recovery in China s exports. 4Q 2009

Business Environment Overview EU-27 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 China 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 11,8 % 10,4 % 10,5 % 10,7 % 9,1 % 8,4 % United States 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2,6 % 1,1 % 1,5 % 2,5 % 2,4 % 2,2 % 2,4 % 2,8 % 0,1 % -1,7 %-2,1 % Japan -1,8 % 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Other Asia 2,1 % -1,1 % 1,7 % 1,3 % 1,7 % 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012-4,5 % 6,7 % 4,9 % 4,9 % 4,9 % 3,8 % 0,6 % Others; 13.23 ; 22 % EU27; 18.39 ; 30 % Other Asia; 5.47 ; 9 % People's Republic of China; 4.40 ; 7 % Japan; 4.92 ; 8 % United States; 14.26 ; 24 % 4Q 2009

North America Oil Import Demand 16 000 US Petroleum Consumption by Sector 14 000 12 000 In '000 Bpd 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000 0 jan.73 jan.76 jan.79 jan.82 jan.85 jan.88 jan.91 jan.94 jan.97 jan.00 jan.03 jan.06 Residential Commerical Industiral Transportation Electricity 4Q 2009

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 0,2 % -0,3 % 0,0 % -5,9 % -4,5 % 3,5 % 1,6 % 1,4 % 26,0 25,0 24,0 23,0 North America Oil Consumption Mill Bpd 22,0 21,0 20,0 19,0 18,0 17,0 16,0 98q1 99q1 00q1 01q1 02q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 11q1 12q1 3.qtr. Base Case 4.qtr. Base Case

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012-3,1 % 1,0 % 2,7 % -0,6 % 3,6 % 1,8 % 0,3 % 0,3 % 12,0 North America Oil Production 11,5 11,0 Mill Bpd 10,5 10,0 9,5 9,0 98q1 99q1 00q1 01q1 02q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 11q1 12q1 3.qtr. Base Case 4.qtr. Base Case

Million Barrels 2 250 2 150 2 050 1 950 1 850 1 750 N. Am. Last 5 years Recent Data Quarterly Stock Levels Former Base Stock Changes in North America Total Stocks (mbd) 1 650 02q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 Mbpd 2,0 1,0 0,0-1,0 Recent IEA Former Base Quarterly stock levels Quarterly Stock Changes - North America Total Stocks (mbd) -2,0 02q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 Million Barrels 1 450 1 400 1 350 1 300 1 250 1 200 1 150 1 100 1 050 N. Am. Last 5 years Recent Data Quarterly Stock Levels Former Base Industry Stocks in North America Total Stocks (mbd) 02q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 5,1 % -4,2 % -4,5 % -4,4 % -9,8 % 2,9 % 2,9 % 2,4 % 16,0 15,0 14,0 13,0 North America Oil Import Mill Bpd 12,0 11,0 10,0 9,0 8,0 7,0 6,0 98q1 99q1 00q1 01q1 02q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 11q1 12q1 3.qtr. Base Case 4.qtr. Base Case

OECD Europe energy consumption Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro 900 800 Mill Ton Oil Equivalent 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 Source: BP

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1,0 % 0,2 % -2,4 % 0,4 % -4,8 % 3,0 % 1,8 % 2,1 % 18,0 OECD Europe Oil Consumption 17,0 16,0 Mill Bpd 15,0 14,0 13,0 12,0 98q1 99q1 00q1 01q1 02q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 11q1 12q1 3.qtr. Base Case 4.qtr. Base Case

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012-7,4 % -8,0 % -4,3 % -4,0 % -5,8 % -8,0 % -9,4 % -8,5 % 8,0 OECD Europe Oil Production 7,0 6,0 Mill Bpd 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 98q1 99q1 00q1 01q1 02q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 11q1 12q1 3.qtr. Base Case 4.qtr. Base Case

Stock Changes in OECD Europe Total Stocks (mbd) Million Barrels 1 470 1 420 1 370 1 320 1 270 OECD Eur Avg. Last 5yrs Recent Data Quarterly Stock Levels Former Base 1 220 02q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 Mbpd 1,0 0,5 0,0 Recent IEA Former Base Quarterly stock levels Quarterly Stock Changes - OECD Europe Total Stocks (mbd) -0,5 02q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 Million Barrels 1 000 975 950 925 900 OECD Eur Avg. Last 5yrs Recent Data Quarterly Stock Levels Former Base Industry Stocks in OECD Europe Total Stocks (mbd) 875 02q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 9,0 % -3,0 % -0,6 % 0,2 % -2,9 % 5,5 % 4,3 % 4,0 % 16,0 15,0 14,0 13,0 OECD Europe Oil Import Mill Bpd 12,0 11,0 10,0 9,0 8,0 7,0 6,0 98q1 99q1 00q1 01q1 02q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 11q1 12q1 3.qtr. Base Case 4.qtr. Base Case

Japan energy consumption Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro 300 250 Mill Ton Oil Equivalent 200 150 100 50 0 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 Source: BP

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 0,0 % -3,6 % -3,1 % -4,4 % -10,1 % -0,6 % -6,6 % -0,9 % 7,0 Japan Oil Consumption 6,0 5,0 Mill Bpd 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 98q1 99q1 00q1 01q1 02q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 11q1 12q1 3.qtr. Base Case 4.qtr. Base Case

Million Barrels 670 650 630 610 590 Japan Last 5 years Recent Data Quarterly Stock Levels Former Base Stock Changes in Japan Total Stocks (mbd) 570 02q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 Mbpd 1,0 0,5 0,0 Recent IEA Former Base Quarterly stock levels Quarterly Stock Changes - Japan Total Stocks (mbd) -0,5 02q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 0,4 % -1,2 % -1,9 % 0,6 % -12,5 % 1,0 % -6,4 % -1,2 % 7,0 Japan Oil Import 6,0 5,0 Mill Bpd 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 98q1 99q1 00q1 01q1 02q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 11q1 12q1 3.qtr. Base Case 4.qtr. Base Case

China energy consumption Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Coal (Right Axis) Mill Ton Oil Equivalent 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 Source: BP 1 600 1 400 1 200 1 000 800 600 400 200 0 Mill Ton Oil Equivalent

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 4,3 % 7,5 % 5,1 % 4,3 % 4,8 % 9,3 % 7,6 % 6,4 % 12,0 China Oil Consumption 10,0 8,0 Mill Bpd 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0 98q1 99q1 00q1 01q1 02q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 11q1 12q1 3.qtr. Base Case 4.qtr. Base Case

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 3,6 % 2,1 % 1,4 % 2,0 % 0,7 % 6,0 % 0,0 % -0,8 % 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 China Oil Production Mill Bpd 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 98q1 99q1 00q1 01q1 02q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 11q1 12q1 3.qtr. Base Case 4.qtr. Base Case

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 6,3 % 16,6 % 1,3 % 14,7 % 0,1 % 12,2 % 13,7 % 11,5 % 7,0 China Oil Import 6,0 5,0 Mill Bpd 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 98q1 99q1 00q1 01q1 02q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 11q1 12q1 3.qtr. Base Case 4.qtr. Base Case

South Korea energy consumption Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro 120 100 Mill Ton Oil Equivalent 80 60 40 20 0 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 Source: BP

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1,9 % 2,2 % 3,8 % 1,2 % 1,9 % 6,8 % 3,7 % 3,7 % 18,0 Other Asia & Ocean Oil Consumption 16,0 14,0 12,0 Mill Bpd 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0 98q1 99q1 00q1 01q1 02q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 11q1 12q1 3.qtr. Base Case 4.qtr. Base Case

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012-1,7 % -1,2 % 2,6 % 1,8 % -1,1 % 3,4 % 2,0 % -1,5 % 4,8 Other Asia & Ocean Oil Production 4,6 4,4 4,2 Mill Bpd 4,0 3,8 3,6 3,4 3,2 3,0 98q1 99q1 00q1 01q1 02q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 11q1 12q1 3.qtr. Base Case 4.qtr. Base Case

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 10,6 % 1,7 % -2,9 % -0,6 % 3,4 % 8,3 % 4,5 % 5,7 % 14,0 Other Asia & Ocean Oil Import 12,0 10,0 Mill Bpd 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0 98q1 99q1 00q1 01q1 02q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 11q1 12q1 3.qtr. Base Case 4.qtr. Base Case

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 3,7 % 3,3 % 4,0 % 0,0 % 2,9 % 2,8 % 1,3 % 1,0 % 16,0 FSU & East Europe Oil Production 14,0 12,0 Mill Bpd 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0 98q1 99q1 00q1 01q1 02q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 11q1 12q1 3.qtr. Base Case 4.qtr. Base Case

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2,9 % -0,1 % 2,1 % 3,0 % -8,2 % 4,2 % 1,3 % 2,8 % 34,0 OPEC Oil Production 32,0 30,0 Mill Bpd 28,0 26,0 24,0 22,0 20,0 98q1 99q1 00q1 01q1 02q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 11q1 12q1 3.qtr. Base Case 4.qtr. Base Case

Base Case New Orders New Orders - 4. qtr. Base Case 30,0 25,0 million dwt 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0-2003Q1 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 Former Current History 4Q 2009

Net Deliveries including corrections - 4. qtr. 2009: Slippage; respectively 6.4m.dwt and 4.6m.dwt in 2009 and 2010. Cancelled respectively 4.4m.dwt, 16m.dwt and 23 m.dwt from 2009-2011. Consequently, respectively 24% (24%), 39% (39%) and 45% (30%) of the current orderbook will not be delivered. 20,0 Delivery of Forecasted Orders 4. Qtr. Base Case 16,0 million dwt 12,0 8,0 4,0 - -4,0-8,0 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 Total Slippage Cancelled HIDDEN Existing Orderbook New Order Net Deliveries 4Q 2009

Base Case Deliveries 16,0 Deliveries - 4. Qtr. Base Case 14,0 12,0 million dwt 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0-2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 Former Current History 4Q 2009

Base Case Scrapping Scrapping (incl. Conversions) - 4. Qtr. Base 12,0 10,0 million dwt 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0-1998Q1 2000Q1 2002Q1 2004Q1 2006Q1 2008Q1 2010Q1 2012Q1 Former Current History 4Q 2009

Base Case Net Fleet Growth Net Fleet Growth - 4. Qtr. Base Case million dwt 18,0 16,0 14,0 12,0 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 - -2,0-4,0 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 Net Additions Scrapping Deliveries 4Q 2009

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 5,8 % 6,6 % 5,9 % 4,3 % 7,5 % 2,8 % 0,2 % 5,8 % 525,0 Total Fleet - 4. 3. Qtr. Base Case 475,0 million dwt 425,0 375,0 325,0 275,0 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 Former Current History 4Q 2009

Combis in Tank 14,0 12,0 10,0 Mill Dwt 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0 98Q1 99Q1 00Q1 01Q1 02Q1 03Q1 04Q1 05Q1 06Q1 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 Former Current 4Q 2009

18,0 16,0 14,0 Tank Vessels in Storage 12,0 Mill Dwt 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0 98Q1 99Q1 00Q1 01Q1 02Q1 03Q1 04Q1 05Q1 06Q1 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 Former Current 4Q 2009

Base Case Tonnage Balance Dwt ViaMar Tank Market Balance 500 475 450 425 400 375 350 325 300 275 250 225 200 98Q1 99Q1 00Q1 01Q1 02Q1 03Q1 04Q1 05Q1 06Q1 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 Utilization Total Supply Demand (dwt) 100 % 95 % 90 % 85 % 80 % 75 % 70 % 4Q 2009

80 000 Aframax Sidi Kerir - Trieste (TD11) Average Earnings Modern 70 000 60 000 USD/day 50 000 40 000 30 000 20 000 10 000-98Q1 99Q1 00Q1 01Q1 02Q1 03Q1 04Q1 05Q1 06Q1 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 2009Q4 Base Case Aframax - TD11 History Imarex

120 000 Suezmax Bonny - USAC Average Earnings Modern 100 000 80 000 USD/day 60 000 40 000 20 000-98Q1 99Q1 00Q1 01Q1 02Q1 03Q1 04Q1 05Q1 06Q1 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 2009Q4 Base Case Suezmax - TD5 History Imarex

200 000 180 000 160 000 140 000 VLCC Ras Tanura - Chiba Average Earnings Modern USD/day 120 000 100 000 80 000 60 000 40 000 20 000-98Q1 99Q1 00Q1 01Q1 02Q1 03Q1 04Q1 05Q1 06Q1 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 2009Q4 Base Case VLCC - TD3 History Imarex

Alternative Scenario: Low Scrapping In this scenario, we have assumed that scrapping will fall short of the phase out fleet. Scrapping - Low Scrapping vs. 4. Qtr. Base 12,0 10,0 million dwt 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0-1998Q1 2000Q1 2002Q1 2004Q1 2006Q1 2008Q1 2010Q1 2012Q1 2009Q4 Base Low Scrapping History

2009 Vessel Prices & Values

The Newbuilding and Secondhand Market-price Model Shipyard Capacity Steel Price SHIPYARD CGT SUPPLY BALANCE UTILIZATION NEWBUILDING PRICE SECONDHAND PRICES SHIPYARD CGT DEMAND MARKET ANALYSIS ORDERING ACTIVITY Tankers Others Dry Bulk EARNINGS Container Gas Tankers

There is Essentially One 1 Common Newbuilding Market 57,5 Newbuilding Prices - Tankers and Dry Bulk 52,5 NB Price (usd millions) 47,5 42,5 37,5 32,5 110 Newbuilding Prices - Tanker, Dry Bulk, LPG and Container 27,5 100 90 22,5 1990q1 1991q1 1992q1 1993q1 1994q1 1995q1 1996q1 1997q1 1998q1 1999q1 802000q1 2001q1 2002q1 2003q1 2004q1 NB Price (usd millions) 70 Aframax NBP Capesize NBP Product Tanker NBP 60 50 40 30 20 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 VLGC 78.000 cbm Capesize Aframax Panamax FCC 3500 TEU

Quarterly Ordering Activity - 3rd Qtr Base Case 25.0 20.0 Container (est cgt) Dry Bulk (est cgt) Tankers (est cgt) CGT Millions 15.0 10.0 5.0-2004q1 2005q1 2006q1 2007q1 2008q1 2009q1 2010q1 2011q1 2012q1

ViaMar In Depth Analysis Covers 80-90% of Ordering Activity (Containers, Dry Bulk, Tankers & Gas Carriers) 200 Global Orderbook Development 180 Million CGT Orderbook 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20-98Q1 99Q1 00Q1 01Q1 02Q1 03Q1 04Q1 05Q1 06Q1 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 Tanker Dry Bulk Container Gas Others

Global Shipyard Capacity Compensated Gross Tons (cgt) 25 000 000 20 000 000 15 000 000 10 000 000 5 000 000 - Shipyard Deliveries & Current Orderbooks vs Capacity Deliveries Korea Deliveries China Korea - Orderbook China - Orderbook Capacity China Capacity Korea 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Utilization of Global Shipyard Capacity Capacity Development vs Major Shipping Sectors Demand 60 000 000 Compensated Gross Tons (GCT) 50 000 000 40 000 000 30 000 000 20 000 000 10 000 000 Capacity Europe Capacity Asia Total Bulk, Container & Gass Forecast - 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

170.0 VLCC Newbuilding Price 320.000 dwt (Source: Clarksons, Fearnleys) Usd Millions 150.0 130.0 110.0 90.0 Q2 Base Case Q3 Base Case History 70.0 50.0 2001q1 2002q1 2003q1 2004q1 2005q1 2006q1 2007q1 2008q1 2009q1 2010q1 2011q1 2012q1

Usd Millions 180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 VLCC Secondhand Price, 5 year old 300.000 dwt Q2 Base Case Q3 Base Case History (Source: Clarksons, Fearnleys) 40.0 2001q1 2002q1 2003q1 2004q1 2005q1 2006q1 2007q1 2008q1 2009q1 2010q1 2011q1 2012q1

Usd Millions 150.0 130.0 110.0 90.0 70.0 VLCC Secondhand Price, 10 year old 300.000 dwt DH Q2 Base Case Q3 Base Case DH 300.000 dwt 1999 blt History (Source: Clarksons, Fearnleys) 50.0 30.0 2001q1 2002q1 2003q1 2004q1 2005q1 2006q1 2007q1 2008q1 2009q1 2010q1 2011q1 2012q1

Usd Millions 55.0 50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 Product Tanker Newbuilding Price 47.000 dwt (Source: Clarksons, Fearnleys) Q2 Base Case Q3 Base Case History 20.0 2001q1 2002q1 2003q1 2004q1 2005q1 2006q1 2007q1 2008q1 2009q1 2010q1 2011q1 2012q1

Usd Millions 50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 Product Tanker Secondhand Price, 10 year old 45.000 dwt Q2 Base Case Q3 Base Case History (Source: Clarksons, Fearnleys) 2001q1 2002q1 2003q1 2004q1 2005q1 2006q1 2007q1 2008q1 2009q1 2010q1 2011q1 2012q1

Conclusions on Investments 1Q 2008 Time to Buy Time to do nothing Time to Sell VLCC Product Tankers Aframax Tankers Capesize Bulk Handy & Panamax Bulk Carriers Container Ships

1Q2008 ViaMar Ship Value Conclusions. We assumed lower economic growth worldwide for the forecast period. We used the following headings for each of the major economic areas: US Economy; Closer to Recession but not necessary recession. US not decoupled. Europe: Soft Q4 data, but worse to come? Broad softening in Japan Recession in 1H 2008? China: External exposure still very high We forecasted a sharp decline in S/H ship values; Handy product carrier 10yr old was then $45m we said it would slide to $30m (mid 2009) and $20m (mid 2010) is now $26m (Oct) Handy bulk carrier 10 yr old was then $60m we said it would slide to low $30m (mid 2009) and low $10m (mid 2010) is now $20.5m (Oct.) 3500 TEU container vessel 10 yr old was then $50m we said it would slide to $40m (mid 2009)and low $20 sm (mid 2010) is now $19m 78.000 cbm gas carrier 10 yr old was then $55m, we said it would slide to mid $40 s (mid 2010). is now $50m (?).

Conclusions on Investments 3Q 2009 Time to Buy Time to do nothing Time to Sell Handymax BC Panamax BC Capesize Bulk MR PC VLCC 3500 TEU Cont