The Essential Report 16 June 2015 MELBOURNE SYDNEY www.essentialresearch.com.au
The Essential Report Date: 16 June 2015 Prepared by: Essential Research Data supplied: Essential Media Communications is a member of the Association of Market and Social Research Organisations. Our researchers are members of the Australian Market and Social Research Society The Essential Report Page 2 / 11
About this poll This report summarises the results of a weekly omnibus conducted by Essential Research with data provided by Your Source. The survey was conducted online from the 10 th to 12 th June and is based on 1,006 respondents. Aside from the standard question on voting intention, this week s report includes questions on in institutions, housing affordability and professions. The methodology used to carry out this research is described in the appendix on page 11. Note that due to rounding, not all tables necessarily total 100% and subtotals may also vary. The Essential Report Page 3 / 11
Federal politics voting intention Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? Q. If don t know - Well which party are you currently leaning to? Sample size = 1,796 respondents First preference/leaning to Election 7 Sep 13 4 weeks ago 19/5/15 2 weeks ago 2/6/15 Last week 9/6/15 This week 16/6/15 Liberal 38% 38% 38% 39% National 3% 4% 3% 3% Liberal/National 45.6% 41% 41% 41% 42% Labor 33.4% 39% 40% 40% 39% Greens 8.6% 10% 10% 9% 10% Palmer United Party 5.5% 1% 1% 1% 1% Other/Independent 6.9% 8% 8% 9% 8% 2 Party Preferred Election 7 Sep 13 4 weeks ago 19/5/15 2 weeks ago 2/6/15 Last week 9/6/15 This week 16/6/15 Liberal National 53.5% 48% 48% 48% 48% Labor 46.5% 52% 52% 52% 52% NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2- week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select don t know are not included in the results. The two- party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election. The Essential Report Page 4 / 11
Trust in Institutions Q. How much do you have in the following institutions and organisations? A lot of Some A little No Don t know % change Jun 12 Mar 13 Federal police 68% 27% 41% 19% 7% 6% na - - - - State police 66% 27% 39% 22% 6% 6% na - - - - The High Court 61% 23% 38% 23% 9% 7% +8 60% 74% 57% 53% The ABC 56% 18% 38% 23% 12% 9% +3 54% 70% 54% 53% The Reserve Bank 56% 16% 40% 25% 10% 9% +7 49% 64% 52% 49% Charitable organisations 46% 9% 37% 36% 10% 7% +2 50% 52% 45% 44% Environment groups 40% 9% 31% 35% 17% 8% +7 32% 41% 31% 33% Your local council 39% 6% 33% 34% 21% 6% +7 na 34% 33% 32% The Commonwealth Public Service 35% 5% 30% 39% 13% 12% +3 30% 36% 31% 32% State Parliament 32% 5% 27% 32% 28% 7% +8 na 30% 24% 24% Federal Parliament 31% 6% 25% 33% 30% 7% +6 22% 34% 25% 25% Business groups 28% 2% 26% 42% 19% 10% +5 22% 26% 22% 23% Trade unions 26% 3% 23% 32% 32% 11% +3 22% 25% 22% 23% Religious organisations 25% 6% 19% 27% 40% 8% +3 27% 27% 26% 22% Political parties 16% 1% 15% 37% 40% 7% +2 12% 12% 13% 14% Note: Trust is an aggregate figure achieved by adding A lot of and Some Jul 14 Jan 15 The Essential Report Page 5 / 11
Overall in institutions has increased a little since this question was asked in January. Respondents had most in the Federal police (68%), State police (66%), the High Court (61%), the ABC (56%) and the Reserve Bank (56%). They had least in political parties (16%), religious organisations (25%), trade unions (26%) and business groups (28%). The main changes since the last poll were for the High Court (up 8% to 61%), State parliament (up 8% to 32%), the Reserve bank (up 7% to 56%), environment groups (up 7% to 40%) and local council (up 7% to 39%). Compared to the average, Labor voters had more in the ABC (67%), environment groups (46%) and trade unions (38%). Liberal/National voters, compared to the average, had a little more in State and Federal police (both 74%), the Reserve Bank (66%), Federal Parliament (52%), State Parliament (40%) and business groups (41%). The Essential Report Page 6 / 11
Housing affordability Q. Do you think housing in your area is affordable or unaffordable for someone on an average income? Labor Lib/Nat Greens other Aged 18-34 Aged 35-54 Aged 55+ Capital cities Region - al NSW Victoria Queens - land Affordable 33% 26% 43% 27% 31% 24% 30% 48% 26% 45% 28% 31% 34% Unaffordable 60% 68% 52% 68% 61% 69% 64% 45% 69% 48% 67% 63% 59% Don t know 7% 6% 6% 4% 8% 7% 6% 7% 7% 7% 5% 6% 7% 33% think that housing in their area is affordable for someone on an average income and 60% think it is unaffordable. Those most likely to think housing was unaffordable were aged 18-34 (69%), people living in capital cities (69%) and those living in NSW (67%). 48% of those aged 55+ and 45% of those living in regional areas thought housing was affordable. The Essential Report Page 7 / 11
Change in housing affordability Q. And do you think housing in your area has become more affordable or less affordable over the last few years? Labor Lib/Nat Greens other Capital cities Region- al NSW Victoria Queens - land more affordable 11% 10% 15% 8% 6% 8% 15% 8% 8% 17% less affordable 75% 79% 67% 82% 83% 79% 65% 83% 80% 64% A lot more affordable 1% 1% 2% 1% - 1% 1% 1% 2% - A little more affordable 10% 9% 13% 7% 6% 7% 14% 7% 6% 17% A little less affordable 33% 31% 34% 33% 42% 30% 37% 30% 35% 34% A lot less affordable 42% 48% 33% 49% 41% 49% 28% 53% 45% 30% No change 10% 7% 14% 5% 8% 8% 14% 6% 8% 12% Don t know 5% 4% 4% 4% 3% 5% 6% 4% 4% 7% 75% think that housing in their area has become less affordable over the last few years including 42% who though it was a lot less affordable. 83% of residents of NSW and 80% of Victorians think housing has become less affordable. The Essential Report Page 8 / 11
Trust in professions Q. In general, how much do you have in the following professions? a lot /some A lot of Some A little No Don t know Doctors 81% 39% 42% 14% 2% 4% Engineers 68% 23% 45% 20% 3% 10% Accountants 49% 8% 41% 34% 9% 8% Lawyers 34% 5% 29% 37% 21% 8% Bankers 29% 2% 27% 41% 25% 6% Journalists 27% 2% 25% 41% 26% 6% Real estate agents 12% 1% 11% 38% 44% 7% Politicians 11% 1% 10% 33% 49% 6% From a list of eight professions, a majority of respondents had in doctors (81%) and engineers (68%). About half (49%) had in accountants who were considered more worthy that lawyers (34%) or bankers (29%). Politicians (11%) and real estate agents (12%) were the least ed. The Essential Report Page 9 / 11
Blame for tax avoidance Q. Who do you think is most to blame for big companies, like Google, shifting their assets to other countries to avoid paying tax in Australia? Labor Lib/Nat Greens other The Australian Government 33% 43% 22% 43% 38% The company executives 23% 23% 27% 20% 24% The company board 16% 12% 20% 21% 17% Their accountants 9% 6% 14% 3% 10% Don t know 18% 15% 17% 13% 12% 33% think that the Australian Government is most to blame for big companies shifting their assets to other countries to avoid paying tax. 23% blame company executives, 16% the company board and only 9% their accountants. Labor and Greens voters are more likely to blame the Government (both 43%) and Liberal/National voters a little more likely to blame accountants (14%). The Essential Report Page 10 / 11
Appendix: Methodology, margin of error and professional standards The data gathered for this report is gathered from a weekly online omnibus conducted by Your Source. Essential Research has been utilizing the Your Source online panel to conduct research on a week- by- week basis since November 2007. Each week, the team at Essential Media Communications discusses issues that are topical and a series of questions are devised to put to the Australian public. Some questions are repeated regularly (such as political preference and leadership approval), while others are unique to each week and reflect media and social issues that are present at the time. Your Source has a self- managed consumer online panel of over 100,000 members. The majority of panel members have been recruited using off line methodologies, effectively ruling out concerns associated with online self- selection. Your Source has validation methods in place that prevent panellist over use and ensure member authenticity. Your Source randomly selects 18+ males and females (with the aim of targeting 50/50 males/females) from its Australia wide panel. An invitation is sent out to approximately 7000 8000 of their panel members. The response rate varies each week, but usually delivers 1000+ interviews. In theory, with a sample of this size, there is 95 per cent certainty that the results are within 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire population had been polled. However, this assumes random sampling, which, because of non- response and less than 100% population coverage cannot be achieved in practice. Furthermore, there are other possible sources of error in all polls including question wording and question order, interviewer bias (for telephone and face- to- face polls), response errors and weighting. The best guide to a poll s accuracy is to look at the record of the polling company - how have they performed at previous elections or other occasions where their estimates can be compared with known population figures. In the last poll before the 2010 election, the Essential Report estimates of first preference votes were all within 1% of the election results. The Your Source online omnibus is live from the Wednesday night of each week and closed on the following Sunday. Incentives are offered to participants in the form of points. Essential Research uses the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) software to analyse the data. The data is weighted against Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data. All Essential Research and senior Your Source staff hold Australian Market and Social Research Society (AMSRS) membership and are bound by professional codes of behaviour. Your Source is an Australian social and market research company specializing in recruitment, field research, data gathering and data analysis. Essential Research is a member of the Association Market and Social Research Organisations (AMSRO). Your Source holds Interviewer Quality Control Australia (IQCA) accreditation, Association Market and Social Research Organisations (AMSRO) membership and World Association of Opinion and Marketing Research Professionals (ESOMAR) membership. Both Essential Research and Your Source are ISO accredited market research companies. This research was conducted in compliance with AS: ISO20252 guidelines. The Essential Report Page 11 / 11