Hindustan Petroleum Corporation

RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY17 03 JUN 2017 Hindustan Petroleum Corporation INDUSTRY OIL & GAS CMP (as on 2 Jun 2017) Rs 537 Target Price Rs 550 Nifty 9,654 Sensex 31,273 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg HPCL IN No. of Shares (mn) 1,016 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 545/8,462 6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 1,698 STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 52 Week high / low Rs 584/294 3M 6M 12M Absolute (%) 5.8 23.1 76.5 Relative (%) (2.7) 3.8 60.0 SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) Promoters 51.11 FIs & Local MFs 9.58 FPIs 16.88 Public & Others 22.43 Source : BSE Satish Mishra satish.mishra@hdfcsec.com +91-22-6171-7334 Deepak Kolhe deepak.kolhe@hdfcsec.com +91-22-6171-7316 Challenges in earnings growth HPCL s 4QFY17 EBITDA came in at Rs 29bn and PAT at Rs 18bn. The results are not comparable to the prior period, owing to the impact of inventory, forex and oil UR. Inventory gains in 4Q were Rs 743mn. The last three years have been excellent for OMCs. The fall in crude prices led to a complete change in the fortunes of the sector, driven by (1) Strong global GRMs (robust demand, lower product prices, delay in new refineries), (2) Petchem margins are above their 5-year avg, (3) Higher profits in marketing, owing to strong volumes/margins, (4) Healing of the B/S (low oil subsidy, interest cost fell 50-60% in the last 3 years) and (5) Inventory gains. These factors have led OMCs to report the highest-ever PAT in FY17. The stock has moved up 3.5x over the last three years. We believe HPCL may witness pressure in the nearterm. HPCL is in the weakest position among OMCs, with no refining addition plans for the next 2 years. We sense a possibility of a YoY decline in profits in FY18E, led by (1) Hit of ~Rs 5bn pa, owing to a rise in digital payments for auto fuels and (2) Doubt on inventory impact (gains of ~Rs 35bn in FY17). BUY Our SOTP target is Rs 550 (5x FY19E EV/e for standalone refining, 6.5x EV/e for marketing and Rs 127/sh from other investments). Maintain NEUTRAL. Highlights of the quarter Reported GRM was USD 8.0/bbl, led by healthy spread, higher operating efficiencies and forex gain of USD 0.5/bbl. Total refinery throughput was 4.6 mnt (-1% YoY, flat QoQ). Product sale volumes were at 8.9 mnt (-2% YoY). Pipeline throughput was strong at 4.7 mnt (+11% YoY). Aggressive capex plans: HPCL will incur a capex of Rs 550-600bn over the next five years owing to (1) Increasing refining capacities, (2) Improving distillate yield, (3) Making auto fuels BS VI compliant, (4) Developing marketing infrastructure, and (5) Miscellaneous ventures (LNG, renewable, R&D). Capex will mostly be back-ended. Near-term outlook: GST has caused uncertainty in the oil sector. This overhang will continue, unless the government addresses these concerns. Apart from GST, we see no major concern for HPCL till the crude price remains below USD 65/bbl. Inventory impact and provisions may impact quarterly results. Financial Summary (Standalone) (Rs bn) 4QFY17 4QFY16 YoY (%) 3QFY17 QoQ (%) FY16 FY17P FY18E FY19E Net Sales 515.25 411.19 25.3 485.56 6.1 1,777.0 1,870.2 2,130.0 2,229.5 EBITDA 28.86 26.66 8.2 28.03 2.9 79.4 105.8 97.6 97.2 PAT 18.19 13.88 31.0 15.90 14.4 37.3 62.1 52.2 51.0 Diluted EPS (Rs) 17.9 13.7 31.0 15.6 14.4 36.7 61.1 51.3 50.2 P/E (x) 14.6 8.8 10.5 10.7 EV / EBITDA (x) 8.7 6.8 7.1 7.2 RoE (%) 21.9 32.4 24.2 21.3 HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO>& Thomson Reuters

EBITDA includes Rs 743mn of inventory gains in the marketing segment Interest cost increased owing to higher short-term debt on account of higher dividend payments and pre-payment of excise duty Strong GRM was led by healthy spreads, higher efficiency and exchange gain of USD 0.5/bbl Net under-recovery was nil Quarterly Financials Snapshot (Standalone) (Rs bn) 4QFY17 4QFY16 YoY (%) 3QFY17 QoQ (%) Net Sales 515.25 411.19 25.3 485.56 6.1 Raw Material 125.20 89.24 40.3 103.86 20.5 Trading 325.65 256.68 26.9 320.21 1.7 Employee Expenses 11.16 5.04 121.5 6.10 82.8 Other Expenses 24.38 33.57 (27.4) 27.34 (10.8) EBITDA 28.86 26.66 8.2 28.03 2.9 Depreciation 6.75 6.67 1.2 6.34 6.5 EBIT 22.11 19.99 10.6 21.70 1.9 Other Income 4.05 3.95 2.5 2.88 40.6 Interest Cost 2.27 1.97 15.4 0.53 328.3 PBT 23.89 21.98 8.7 24.05 (0.6) Tax 5.70 8.10 (29.6) 8.14 (30.0) RPAT 18.19 13.88 31.0 15.90 14.4 EO (Loss) / Profit (Net Of Tax) - - - - - EPS 17.9 13.7 31.0 15.6 14.4 Margin Analysis 4QFY17 4QFY16 YoY (bps) 3QFY17 QoQ (bps) Raw Material As % Of Net Sales 24.3 21.7 260 21.4 291 Trading As % Of Net Sales 63.2 62.4 78 65.9 (275) Employee Expenses as % of Net Sales 2.2 1.2 94 1.3 91 Other Operating Expenses As % of Net Sales 4.7 8.2 (343) 5.6 (90) EBITDA Margin (%) 5.6 6.5 (88) 5.8 (17) Net Profit Margin (%) 3.5 3.4 15 3.3 25 Tax Rate (%) 23.9 36.8 (1,297) 33.9 (1,000) Key Quarterly Data 4QFY17 4QFY16 YoY (%) 3QFY17 QoQ (%) Refinery Throughput (mmt) 4.6 4.7 (1.3) 4.7 (0.4) Pipeline Throughput (mmt) 4.7 4.2 10.7 4.5 4.5 Sales Volumes (mmt) 8.9 9.1 (2.1) 9.3 (4.5) GRM (USD/bbl) 8.0 7.5 6.5 6.4 25.3 Gross Under/(Over) Recovery (Rs bn) 3.2 2.5 24.8 2.6 20.1 Net Under/(Over) Recovery (Rs bn) - (0.4) (100.0) - NA Page 2

We expect GRM to remain flat in FY18/19 We expect diesel s marketing margins to increase by 5% Lower gross UR will lead to no net UR and lower debt Minor change in estimates Assumptions FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17P FY18E FY19E Refining Business Throughput (mnt) 16.2 15.8 15.5 16.2 17.2 17.8 17.8 17.8 GRM (US$/bbl) 2.9 2.1 3.4 2.8 6.7 6.2 6.0 6.0 Marketing Business Total Sales (mnt) 29.5 30.3 31.0 32.0 34.2 35.2 36.8 38.5 YoY Gr (%) 9.1 2.8 2.1 3.3 7.0 3.0 4.3 4.7 Diesel Volume (mn T) 14.2 15.5 16.0 15.8 16.9 17.2 17.6 18.1 Diesel Volume Gr (%) 15.3 8.7 3.3 (0.9) 6.5 2.0 2.5 2.5 Petrol Volume Gr (%) 7.5 5.2 8.6 13.1 12.3 9.0 9.0 9.0 Diesel Margin (Rs/l) 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 Macro INR-US$ 47.9 54.5 60.5 61.2 65.5 66.5 66.0 66.0 Crude Price (US$/bbl) 114.5 110.0 107.8 90.5 47.6 50.0 55.0 55.0 Total Sector UR (Rs bn) 1,385 1,610 1,399 1,399 723 276 237 295 HPCL Gross UR (Rs bn) 304 362 325 325 164 60 51 64 HPCL Net UR (Rs bn) 0.1 2.1 4.8 4.8 5.5 0.1 - - Change In Estimates (Rs bn) FY18 Old FY18 New YoY (%) FY19 Old FY19 New YoY (%) Revenue 2,089.4 2,130.0 1.9 2,185.0 2,229.5 2.0 EBITDA 97.44 97.63 0.2 97.58 97.24 (0.4) PAT 52.69 52.18 (1.0) 50.83 51.03 0.4 EPS (Rs/sh) 51.8 51.3 (1.0) 50.0 50.2 0.4 Source: HDFC sec Inst Research Page 3

Cut in TP from Rs 580/sh to Rs 550/sh, owing to reduction in cash balance post higher dividend payments in FY17 We are not assigning any value to large CWIP (Rs 77/sh on FY19E) as (1)Projects commissioning timeline remains uncertain, (2) Most of the capex will be used for marketing and to convert refineries to meet BS-VI standards Valuation (Based On FY19E) Business EBITDA (Rs bn) Multiple Value (Rs bn) Value (Rs/sh) Valuation basis Standalone Refining 31.45 5.0 157 155 EV/EBIDTA on FY19E Marketing 63.42 6.5 412 406 EV/EBIDTA on FY19E Pipeline 2.37 9.0 21 21 EV/EBIDTA on FY19E Standalone net Debt (161) (158) As on Mar-18E Standalone Equity Value 430 423 Investments Traded investments 0.80 45 36 20% discount to CMP HPCL Mittal Energy Ltd (HMEL) 46.6 6.5 303 146 EV/EBIDTA on FY19E HMEL net debt (140) (67) As on Mar-18E HMEL Equity Value 163 79 HPCL's stake is 48.9% Other non traded investments 1.0 13 13 1x BV Investments Equity Value 127 Value per share 550 Peer Valuations Mcap (Rs bn) CMP (Rs/sh) Reco.* TP (Rs/sh)* EPS (Rs/sh) P/E (x) P/BV (x) ROE (%) FY17E FY18E FY19E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY17E FY18E FY19E Reliance Industries 4,307 1,325 NEU 1,375 96.7 111.5 126.3 13.7 11.9 10.5 1.5 1.3 1.2 11.6 11.9 12.2 ONGC 2,233 174 BUY 228 13.9 15.3 16.8 12.5 11.4 10.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 10.2 10.3 10.8 Indian Oil Corp 1,966 415 BUY 470 40.3 40.4 43.1 10.3 10.3 9.6 2.0 1.8 1.6 20.3 18.2 17.5 BPCL 950 725 NEU 720 61.3 58.5 67.3 11.8 12.4 10.8 3.2 2.8 2.5 28.2 24.3 24.6 Gail India 680 402 BUY 440 22.5 28.9 30.0 17.9 13.9 13.4 1.8 1.7 1.5 10.4 12.3 11.9 HPCL 545 537 NEU 550 61.1 51.3 50.2 8.8 10.5 10.7 2.7 2.4 2.2 32.4 24.2 21.3 Petronet LNG 335 446 BUY 485 22.7 25.9 30.2 19.6 17.2 14.8 4.1 3.5 3.0 23.2 22.1 21.9 OIL India 227 300 BUY 370 31.1 25.8 26.7 9.7 11.7 11.3 0.8 0.8 0.8 8.7 6.8 7.0 Indraprastha Gas 152 1,088 BUY 1,230 40.8 45.3 50.6 26.7 24.0 21.5 5.2 4.5 3.9 21.0 20.0 19.3 Source : Company, HDFC sec Inst Research, *As per previous report published Page 4

Standalone Income Statement (Rs bn) FY15 FY16 FY17P FY18E FY19E Net Revenues 2,063.80 1,773.94 1,867.10 2,126.83 2,226.20 Growth (%) (7.5) (14.0) 5.3 13.9 4.7 Material Expenses 1,891.86 1,568.51 1,634.15 1,891.66 1,981.10 Employee Expenses 24.15 23.21 29.46 31.82 34.36 Other Operating Expenses 98.96 105.89 100.85 108.92 116.76 Operating Profits 48.83 76.33 102.63 94.43 93.97 Operating Profit Margin (%) 2.4 4.3 5.5 4.4 4.2 Other Operating Income 2.46 3.06 3.14 3.20 3.27 EBITDA 51.29 79.39 105.77 97.63 97.24 EBITDA Margin (%) 2.5 4.5 5.7 4.6 4.4 EBITDA Growth (%) (1.9) 54.8 33.2 (7.7) (0.4) Depreciation 19.79 26.53 25.35 27.25 28.59 EBIT 31.50 52.86 80.42 70.38 68.65 Other Income (Incl EO Items) 17.11 11.44 15.15 13.72 13.72 Interest 7.07 6.54 5.36 5.83 5.83 PBT 41.54 57.77 90.21 78.27 76.54 Tax 14.21 20.50 28.12 26.09 25.52 RPAT 27.33 37.26 62.09 52.18 51.03 EO (Loss) / Profit (Net Of Tax) 0.03 - - - - APAT 27.30 37.26 62.09 52.18 51.03 Growth (%) 53.8 36.5 66.6 (16.0) (2.2) AEPS 26.9 36.7 61.1 51.3 50.2 Growth (%) 53.8 36.5 66.6 (16.0) (2.2) Standalone Balance Sheet (Rs bn) FY15 FY16 FY17P FY18E FY19E SOURCES OF FUNDS Share Capital 3.39 3.39 10.16 10.16 10.16 Reserves 156.83 176.31 193.31 217.32 240.79 Total Shareholders Funds 160.22 179.70 203.47 227.48 250.95 Long Term Debt 148.56 105.07 62.78 62.78 62.78 Short Term Debt 54.80 107.02 177.07 177.07 177.07 Total Debt 203.35 212.10 239.85 239.85 239.85 Deferred Taxes 41.04 49.19 58.96 58.96 58.96 Long Term Provisions & Others 88.68 95.73 111.87 130.53 152.35 TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 493.29 536.72 614.16 656.82 702.11 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Net Block 290.63 331.08 361.32 364.06 365.48 CWIP 34.74 18.53 18.10 38.10 78.10 LT Investments 58.68 55.87 58.10 58.10 58.10 LT Loans & Advances 14.30 5.65 4.57 4.57 4.57 Other non current assets 1.17 9.81 13.39 13.39 13.39 Total Non-current Assets 399.51 420.94 455.48 478.23 519.64 Inventories 129.72 132.11 185.76 175.07 183.24 Debtors 36.03 37.58 40.64 45.67 47.80 Cash & Equivalents 53.96 50.15 51.42 78.95 78.52 Other Current Assets 56.28 55.01 51.33 51.33 51.33 Total Current Assets 275.99 274.86 329.16 351.02 360.90 Creditors 89.36 94.17 126.58 128.52 134.52 Other Current Liabilities 92.86 64.90 43.90 43.90 43.90 Total Current Liabilities 182.22 159.07 170.48 172.42 178.42 Net Current Assets 93.78 115.79 158.67 178.60 182.47 TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 493.29 536.72 614.16 656.82 702.11 Page 5

Standalone Cash Flow (Rs bn) FY15 FY16 FY17P FY18E FY19E Reported PBT 41.54 57.38 90.21 78.27 76.54 Non-operating & EO items (6.77) 1.40 (15.15) (13.72) (13.72) Depreciation 19.71 26.67 25.35 27.25 28.59 Interest expenses 7.07 6.54 5.36 5.83 5.83 Working Capital Change 124.49 (14.58) (18.21) 26.27 17.52 Tax Paid (7.62) (12.14) (28.12) (26.09) (25.52) OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 178.41 65.27 59.44 97.81 89.24 Capex (40.66) (46.89) (55.17) (50.00) (70.00) Free cash flow (FCF) 137.75 18.38 4.26 47.81 19.24 Investments (1.32) 2.80 (2.23) - - Other Income 17.06 11.44 15.15 13.72 13.72 Others (7.99) (11.01) - - - INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) (32.91) (43.65) (42.25) (36.28) (56.28) Debt Issuance (131.90) (0.34) 27.76 - - Interest expenses (7.07) (6.54) (5.36) (5.83) (5.83) FCFE (1.22) 11.51 26.66 41.98 13.41 Share capital Issuance - - - - - Dividend (6.14) (17.49) (36.59) (28.17) (27.56) Others (0.58) (0.08) - - - FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) (145.68) (24.45) (14.19) (34.00) (33.39) NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) (0.18) (2.83) 3.00 27.53 (0.43) EO Items 2.56 (0.99) (1.73) - - Closing Cash & Equivalents 53.96 50.15 51.42 78.95 78.52 Standalone Key Ratios FY15 FY16 FY17P FY18E FY19E PROFITABILITY % EBITDA Margin 2.5 4.5 5.7 4.6 4.4 EBIT Margin 1.5 3.0 4.3 3.3 3.1 APAT Margin 1.3 2.1 3.3 2.4 2.3 RoE 17.6 21.9 32.4 24.2 21.3 Core RoCE 5.2 9.8 14.1 10.7 9.7 RoCE 6.1 8.9 13.0 9.9 9.0 EFFICIENCY Tax Rate % 34.2 35.5 31.2 33.3 33.3 Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 4.6 3.5 3.3 3.5 3.5 Inventory (days) 23 27 36 30 30 Debtor (days) 6 8 8 8 8 Other Current Assets (days) 10 11 10 9 8 Payables (days) 16 19 25 22 22 Other Current Liab & Provns (days) 16 13 9 8 7 Cash Conversion Cycle (days) 7 13 21 17 17 Net Debt/EBITDA (x) 2.8 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.6 Net D/E 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 Interest Coverage 4.5 8.1 15.0 12.1 11.8 PER SHARE DATA EPS (Rs) 26.9 36.7 61.1 51.3 50.2 CEPS (Rs) 46.3 62.8 86.0 78.2 78.3 DPS (Rs) 8.2 11.5 30.0 23.1 22.6 BV (Rs) 157.7 176.8 200.2 223.8 246.9 VALUATION P/E (x) 20.0 14.6 8.8 10.5 10.7 P/Cash EPS (x) 11.6 8.6 6.2 6.9 6.9 P/BV (x) 3.4 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.2 EV/EBITDA (x) 13.4 8.7 6.8 7.1 7.2 EV/Revenue (x) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 OCF/EV (%) 25.9 9.5 8.3 14.0 12.8 FCFF/EV (%) 20.0 2.7 0.6 6.9 2.7 FCFE/M CAP (%) (0.2) 2.1 4.9 7.7 2.5 Dividend Yield (%) 1.5 2.1 5.6 4.3 4.2 Page 6

RECOMMENDATION HISTORY 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 HPCL Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 TP Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Date CMP Reco Target 11-Jul-16 343 BUY 367 22-Jul-16 387 BUY 450 23-Aug-16 384 BUY 450 7-Oct-16 444 BUY 475 16-Nov-16 444 BUY 515 14-Feb-17 578 BUY 650 12-May-17 527 NEU 580 3-Jun-17 537 NEU 550 Rating Definitions BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period Page 7

Disclosure: We, Satish Mishra, PGDM & Deepak Kolhe, MBA, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. HSL has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication of this report. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest. 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HDFC securities Institutional Equities Unit No. 1602, 16th Floor, Tower A, Peninsula Business Park, Senapati Bapat Marg, Lower Parel,Mumbai - 400 013 Board : +91-22-6171 7330 www.hdfcsec.com Page 9