US Economic Indicators: Consumer Credit November 7, 218 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 48-664-1333 djohnson@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Consumer Credit Outstanding 1 Change In Consumer Credit 2 Consumer Credit & Personal Saving 3 Consumer Credit Motor Vehicle Loans 4 Consumer Credit 5-6 Household Debt Service Ratio 7 November 7, 218 / Consumer Credit www.
Consumer Credit Outstanding 4. 3.75 Figure 1. CONSUMER CREDIT OUTSTANDING* (trillion dollars, sa) 4. 3.75 3.5 3.5 3.25 Total (3.95) 3.25 3. 3. 2.75 2.75 2.5 2.5 2.25 2.25 2. 2. 1.75 1.75 1.5 1.1 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 1.5 1.1 Revolving Credit (1.) 1. 1..9.9.7.7 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1.9 Nonrevolving Credit (2.9) 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 * Break-adjusted level series are calculated by Haver Analytics using the level data and the break-adjusted percent changes reported by the FRB. 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1.9 Page 1 / November 7, 218 / Consumer Credit www.
45 3 Figure 2. CONSUMER CREDIT OUTSTANDING* (monthly change, billion dollars, sa) Change In Consumer Credit Total (1.9) 45 3 15 15-15 -15-3 2 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219-3 2 1 Revolving Credit (-.3) 1-1 -1-2 3 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Nonrevolving Credit (11.2) -2 3 2 2 1 1-1 -1-2 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 * Break-adjusted level series are calculated by Haver Analytics using the level data and the break-adjusted percent changes reported by the FRB. -2 Page 2 / November 7, 218 / Consumer Credit www.
Consumer Credit & Personal Saving 12 11 Figure 3. CONSUMER CREDIT & PERSONAL SAVING 12 11 1 9 Personal Saving (12-month sum) (124.3) 1 9 8 7 Consumer Credit Outstanding* (12-month change) (182.3) 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1-1 -2 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-1 -2 * Break-adjusted level series are calculated by Haver Analytics using the level data and the break-adjusted percent changes reported by the FRB. Source: Federal Reserve Board and Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2 175 15 125 1 75 Figure 4. CONSUMER CREDIT* (yearly change, billion dollars, sa) 2 175 15 125 1 75 5 25 5 25-25 -5-75 -1-125 Revolving Credit (37) Nonrevolving Credit (144.7) 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-25 -5-75 -1-125 * Break-adjusted level series are calculated by Haver Analytics using the level data and the break-adjusted percent changes reported by the FRB. Source: Federal Reserve Board and Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page 3 / November 7, 218 / Consumer Credit www.
16.2 12.2 8.2 Figure 5. Consumer Credit Motor Vehicle Loans CONSUMER CREDIT LOANS OUTSTANDING (billion dollars, nsa, ratio scale) Q3 16.2 12.2 8.2 4.2 4.2 Motor Vehicle Loans (1142).2 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21.2 1.2 Figure 6. CONSUMER CREDIT OUTSTANDING: MOTOR VEHICLE LOANS (trillion dollars, nsa) Q3 1.2 1. 1. Latest (1.1).4.4.2.2. 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21. Page 4 / November 7, 218 / Consumer Credit www.
155 Figure 7. CONSUMER CREDIT LOANS OUTSTANDING: STUDENT LOANS Q3 145 (billion dollars, nsa) 135 Consumer Credit 155 145 135 125 Student Loans (1563) 125 115 115 15 15 95 95 85 85 75 75 65 65 55 45 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 55 45 4. 3 3 3.4 3.2 3. 2 2 2.4 2.2 2. 1 1 1.4 1.2 1..4.2 Figure 8. CONSUMER CREDIT OUTSTANDING (trillion dollars, sa) Consumer Credit Total (3.9) Nonrevolving* (2.9) Revolving** (1.) 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 4. 3 3 3.4 3.2 3. 2 2 2.4 2.2 2. 1 1 1.4 1.2 1..4.2 * Nonrevolving credit includes auto and student loans. ** Credit cards. Page 5 / November 7, 218 / Consumer Credit www.
2. Figure 9. CONSUMER CREDIT OUTSTANDING (trillion dollars, nsa) Consumer Credit 2. 1.5 Q3 1.5 Q3 1. Consumer Credit Motor Vehicle Loans (1.1) Student Loans (1) 1..5.5. 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23. 14 13 Figure 1. CREDIT CARD LOANS 9+ DAYS DELINQUENT (percent of balance) 14 13 12 12 11 11 1 1 9 9 8 Q2 8 7 7 6 5 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 Source: New York Fed Credit Panel. 6 5 Page 6 / November 7, 218 / Consumer Credit www.
14 Figure 11. HOUSEHOLD DEBT SERVICE RATIO* Household Debt Service Ratio 14 13 13 12 12 11 11 1 Q2 1 9 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 9 * Ratio of debt service payments to disposable personal income. Page 7 / November 7, 218 / Consumer Credit www.
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