The Future of Hedge Funds: Transparent and Liquid Panel Detail: Tuesday, April 28, 2009 8:00 AM - 9:15 AM Speakers: Jason Cummins, Head of Economic Research, Brevan Howard Asset Management LLP Joseph Dear, Chief Investment Officer, California Public Employees' Retirement System (CalPERS) Orin Kramer, General Partner, Boston Provident LP; Chairman, New Jersey State Investment Council Marc Lasry, Chairman, CEO and Co-Founder, Avenue Capital Group Stephen Nesbitt, CEO, Cliffwater LLC Moderator: Steven Drobny, Co-Founder and Partner, Drobny Global Advisors
Worldwide hedge fund assets decrease by 40 percent since Q2 2008 US$ trillions 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.5 1.9 1.8 0.5 0.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Sources: Hedgefund.net, Milken Institute.
Downsizing of existing funds contributes the most to the decline in hedge fund assets in 2008 Change in hedge fund assets, US$ billions 200 100 0-100 -200-300 -400-500 Change due to performance Net flows for existing funds Flows via new or liquidating funds 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Sources: Hedgefund.net, Milken Institute.
Breakdown of hedge funds by strategies Total assets: $1.8 trillion February 2008 Emerging markets 4% Global macro 4% Event driven 4% Convertible arbitrage 2% Dedicated short bias 1% Equity market neutral 27% Distressed 7% Multi-strategy 12% Event-driven multi-strategy 17% Fixed income arbitrage 22% Sources: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse, Hedgefund.net, Milken Institute.
Hedge fund returns, different strategy Annualized return, January 1994 March 2009 Global macro Distressed Event driven Event-driven multi-strategy Multi-strategy Risk arbitrage Emerging markets Convertible arbitrage Equity market neutral Fixed income arbitrage Dedicated short bias All hedge funds -0.7% 5.2% 3.6% 7.5% 7.1% 6.6% 5.9% 10.3% 9.4% 9.0% 8.6% 12.4% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Annualized return, March 2008 March 2009 Dedicated short bias 5.8% Risk arbitrage -3.3% Global macro -8.5% Event-driven multi-strategy -12.5% Event driven -15.1% Multi-strategy -17.6% Distressed -19.3% Convertible arbitrage -20.2% Fixed income arbitrage -21.2% Emerging markets -27.4% Equity market neutral -43.4% All hedge funds -16.7% -45% -30% -15% 0% 15% Sources: Bloomberg, Milken Institute.
Total returns of selected asset classes Crude Oil Emerging markets Hedge funds U.S. Treasuries Commodities Corporate bonds Small Cap High Yield S&P 500-3.0% Annualized return Q1 1998- Q1 2009 10.8% 9.7% 7.0% 6.2% 5.0% 4.4% 3.6% 3.5% Annualized return Q1 2008- Q1 2009 U.S. Treasuries Corporate bonds -8.1% High Yield -12.6% Hedge funds -16.7% Emerging markets -36.5% Small Cap -37.9% S&P 500-38.1% Commodities -56.5% Crude Oil -67.1% 7.2% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Sources: Bloomberg, Datastream, Milken Institute. -100% -50% 0% 50%
Price performance of major bond, equity and commodity indices Index, January 30, 2000 = 100 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Sources: Bloomberg, Milken Institute. Lehman Bond Composite Index S&P GSCI Commodity Index S&P 500 Index 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
TED Spread reached historical high in 2008 Monthly, January 1985 March 2009 Basis points 350 300 November 1987: 255 bps 250 200 150 September 2008: 315 bps Average since 1985: 59 bps 100 50 0 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 Sources: Bloomberg, Milken Institute.
Liquidity freeze: spread between 3-month LIBOR and overnight index swap rate (weekly, 2001 October 31, 2008) Basis points 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Average since December 2001: 31 bps 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Sources: Bloomberg, Milken Institute. 9/16/2008: Fed rescues AIG for $85 billion. 9/14/2008: Lehman files for bankruptcy. October 10, 2008: 364 bps Average since August 2007: 98 bps 8/16/2007: Countrywide takes an emergency loan of $11 billion 7/31/2007: Two Bear Stearns hedge funds file for bankruptcy.
Does low price-earning ratio imply great investment opportunity? Monthly, January 1954 March 2009 Price-earning ratio for S&P 500 index 35 30 Average since 1954: 16.4x June 1999: 29.7x 25 20 15 10 March 2009: 11.8x 5 April 1980: 7.0x 0 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 Sources: Bloomberg, Milken Institute.
Where is the bottom: Home price may not rebound until after 2011 Percent Annual percentage change in home price implied by forward contracts 0 November 2011 contract -2-4 November 2010 contract -6-8 -10 November 2009 contract -12 09/2007 11/2007 01/2008 03/2008 05/2008 07/2008 09/2008 11/2008 01/2009 03/2009 Sources: Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Milken Institute.
Steve Drobny slides
The future of hedge funds Transparent and liquid
The future of hedge funds Transparent and liquid
The future of hedge funds Transparent and liquid
The future of hedge funds Transparent and liquid
The future of hedge funds Transparent and liquid
The future of hedge funds Transparent and liquid