NEPAL'S DEMOGRAPHIC ISSUES Trilochan Pokharel pokharel.trilochan@gmail.com Nepal Administrative Staff College
Presentation Outline 2 1. Key highlights of Nepal based on different sources 2. Future demographic discourse 3. Conclusion
Total Population of Nepal 3 30000 25000 Population ('000) 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1952-54 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
Population trend of developing countries 8 7 Population (Billion) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 195 0 197 0 199 0 201 0 203 0 4 Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
Population Growth Rate 5 Annual Exponential PGR 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0-0.5-0.12-0.07 1.27 2.73 1.31 2.05 2.62 2.08 2.25 1.4
Growth rate analysis 6 Corresponding demographic indicators around 1.4 % GR (2013) Country CBR CPR e 0 IMR % Urban Nepal 24.3 49.7 68 46 17 Malaysia 21-74 8 64 Iran 19 73 70 45 70 India 23 54 64 50 29 Bhutan 22 66 69 47 33 Sri Lanka 18 68 74 15 15 Kuwait 19 52 74 9 98 Bangladesh 22 56 69 45 25 Source: PRB, 2013.
Demographic Transition 7 C B R & C D R 55 50 45 40 Birth Rate 35 30 25 20 15 Death Rate 10 5 1950-1955 1975-1980 2000-2005 2025-2030
Age structure (1965 vs 2000) 8 80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Male 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Source: Pokharel, 2008. Percentages Female
Age structure (1965 vs 2030) 9 80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Male Female 10 5 0 5 10 Percentages Source: Pokharel, 2008.
Age structure (NHDS 2011) 10 80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Males Nepal 2000 (shaded) & Nepal 2011 Females 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Percentages
NDHS 2011 & NAYS 2012 11 Males NDHS 2011 (shaded) & NAYS 2012 Females 70+ 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Percentages
Demographic dividend 12 Share of population (%) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 Windows of opportunity 10 0-14 0 1965 1985 2005 2025 2045 Year 50-64 30-49 15-29 65+ Source: Pokharel, 2008.
Dependency ratio 13 Dependecy Ratio 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Total dependency ratio Child dependency ratio Old dependency ratio Year
Sex ratio 14 Source Males per 100 females NDHS 2006 89 NHDS 2011 85 Census 2011 94 NLSS 2010/11 86 NDHS 2011 (Urban) 93 NDHS 2011 (Rural) 84 Census 2011 (Mountain) 94 Census 2011 (Hill) 92 Census 2011 (Terai ) 97 NAYS (2012) 98
Average HH size 15
Absentee population pattern (Census 2011) 16 Far Western Mid Western Western Central Eastern Terai Hill Mountain Rural Urban Female Male 0 20 40 60 80 100 Source: CBS, 2013.
Age, sex and migration (NDHS 2011) 17 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Male Female Total <15 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50+
18 Growth rate and absentee population by district (Census 2011) Source: CBS, 2013.
% of hh receiving remittance (NLSS) 19 60 50 55.8 40 30 20 10 23.4 31.9 0 1995/96 2003/04 2010/11 Source: CBS, 2011.
Fertility Analysis 20 300 250 200 150 1996 2001 2006 2011 100 50 0 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 Source: NDHS, 2012.
TFR 21 5.0 4.5 4.6 4.0 4.1 3.5 3.0 3.1 2.5 2.6 2.0 1.5 1.0 1996 2001 2006 2011 Source: NDHS, 2012.
Caste/ethnic differential in fertility 22 Ethnic Groups NHFS 1996 NDHS 2001 NDHS 2006 % decline 1996-2006 Hill Hindu 4.2 3.7 2.9 31 Janajaties/Na tionalities 5.2 4.2 2.9 43 Tarai Hindu 4.1 4.1 3.6 13 Newar 3.7 3.4 2.4 34 Muslim 5.5 5.7 4.6 17 Dalits 4.7 4.8 4.0 15 Nepal 4.6 4.1 3.1 33 Source: Pokharel 2012.
% change in TFR 23 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 44 24 16 12 1996-2001 2001-2006 2006-2011 1996-2011
FP and fertility 24 3 births reduced by FP during 1976 (TFR 6.33) to 2011 (TFR 2.6) accounting 80% of 3.73 births Approximately 646,000 births are averted by FP methods
Role of FP in birth control 25 FP Methods No of births averted % Female sterilization 230081 35.6 Male 108141 16.7 Injectables 127551 19.7 Implants 16637 2.6 Pills 52296 8.1 Condom 48289 7.5 IUD 18023 2.8 Traditional methods 45059 7.0 Total 646076 100.0 Source: Pokharel 2011.
Wealth Index and CEB 26 60 40 20 Percent 0-20 -40 Poorest Poorer Middle Richer Richest 2 and less CEB 3 to 5 CEB 6 and more CEB -60-80 -100 Source: Pokharel, 2012. Wealth Quintile
Male-female differences in GSE 27 Source: Pokharel, 2012.
Male-female difference in life expectancy 28 Source: Pokharel, 2012.
HDI-GDI difference 29 Source: Pokharel, 2012.
Determinants of fertility (Regression coefficient) 30 Variables Women Aged 15-24 Standardized Women Aged 25-34 Standardized Women Aged 35-49 Standardized All Women Standardized Wealth index 0.020-0.204*** -0.265*** -0.055*** Wife s employment status Not employed (R) Employed 0.028 0.054** 0.010 0.079*** Wife s employment place At home (R) Away from home -0.017-0.001 0.018-0.002 Wife s education (in single years) -0.170*** -0.215*** -0.113*** -0.347*** Husband s employment status Not employed (R) Employed 0.060*** 0.020 0.001 0.008 Source: Pokharel, 2012.
1< mortality 31 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Neonatal Post Neonatal Infant 1996 2001 2006 2011 Source: NDHS, 2012.
Education and IMR 32 70 60 50 62 53 40 30 20 37 31 10 No education Primary Some secondary SLC and above Source: Pokharel, 2012.
Wealth Index and IMR 33 70 60 50 61 56 55 53 40 30 32 20 10 Lowest Second Middle Fourth Highest Source: Pokharel, 2012.
IMR... 34 Mothers age at birth (IMR=69 for <20 years) Birth interval (IMR=87 for <2 years) Birth size (IMR=65 for small/very small) Source: Pokharel, 2012.
Future demographic discourse 35 Demographic component Fertility Aspects that shape Economic variables (escaping from cultural factors) Migration IMR Women's education Women's autonomy and empowerment Quality vs quantity debate (including opportunity costs) Mortality/morbidity Public health Nutrition and food behaviour IMR and MMR Healthy living Prospective life Adolescent's and youth sexual behaviour 1
Future... 36 Demographic component Aspect that shape Migration Demographic structure Socio-economic development (Financial and social remittance) Family structure and relation (power balance, access and control in resources) Migration streams/volumes and counter stream Returnees Resource distribution and opportunity sharing
Conclusion 37 Decomposed analysis of demographic components required - unbundling the macro analysis into micro Relation of demographic behaviours with social, economic and cultural behaviours- process dynamics Demographic auditing of development policy, plans programmes and activities - putting population issues at centre
Conclusion... 38 Delinking demographic issues from other disciplinary domain - rescuing population issues from shadow and mainstreaming Re-linking demographic issues as cross-cutting issues - mainstreaming population issues in development activities
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