The Geography of Perth s Youth Unemployment Veronica Huddleston and Paul Maginn The latest International Labour Organisation (ILO) report (2014:11) highlights that young people continue to be particularly affected by the weak and uneven [global economic] recovery. In 2013, an estimated 74.5 million young people worldwide were unemployed almost a million more than 2012 levels. Furthermore, the ILO (2014) notes that global youth unemployment rate (13.1%) is almost three times as much as adult unemployment rates. Despite more than twenty years of uninterrupted economic growth, Australia s young people are not immune from increasing unemployment. Data from the Bureau of Statistics (2014) shows that the unemployment rate for 15-24 year olds has been on a steady upward trend over the last four years 11.1 per cent in July 2011, 11.8 per cent in July 2012, 12.2 per cent in July 2013, and 13.8 per cent in July 2014. This Bulletin presents an overview of the demographic profile of the unemployed youth within the Perth and Peel metropolitan region using 1991 to 2011 time series data and the 2011 Census data derived via the ABS online tool TableBuilder. Furthermore, it also highlights the trends and spatial patterns of unemployment amongst those aged 15-24 years across the 40 statistical local areas (SLAs) within the metropolitan region. Finally, some of the key policy challenges associated with the geography of young peoples unemployment are highlighted. Perth s Unemployed Youth, 1991 to 2011 Between 1991 and 2011, the total number of unemployed youth in the Perth and Peel metropolitan region fell from 27,406 to 16,439 persons. This represents a decline of 66.7 per cent for the twentyyear period, or 3.3 per cent per annum. only did the number of unemployed youth decline between 1991 and 2011, so too did youth unemployment rates. This was largely due to the booming resources economy in Western Australia over the past decade. As shown in Table 1, the unemployment rate for 15-24 year olds in Metro Perth and Peel was halved between 1991 and 2011 falling from 21.7 per cent to 10.3 per cent. In comparison with other key cities, Perth and Adelaide were the only cities where 2011 youth unemployment rates were below the national youth unemployment rate of 12.2 per cent. This was a far cry from the youth unemployment rates in 1991 when Perth (21.7%) and Melbourne (20.2%) registered youth unemployment rates above the national rate of 19.5 per cent. In terms of performance at the SLA level, Figure 1 clearly shows the marked reduction in unemployment rates across all 40 SLAs. In 1991, Fremantle- Inner and Joondalup-South had the highest and lowest rates of unemployment, 39.1 per cent and 16.7 per cent, respectively. By 2011, the highest unemployment rate was 14.1 per cent (Kwinana) and the lowest rate was 4.0 per cent (Fremantle Inner). FACTBase 1
Table 1 Youth Unemployment Rate, Australia and Selected Cities, 1991 and 2011 Australia Metro Perth and Peel Greater Sydney Greater Melbourne Greater Brisbane 1991 15-19 years 23.1 23.4 19.4 24.8 21.4 22.5 20-24 years 17.4 20.6 14.1 17.9 15.5 17.7 15-24 years 19.5 21.7 15.9 20.2 17.8 19.5 2011 15-19 years 16.2 13.9 17.6 17.9 16.8 13.9 20-24 years 9.7 8.0 10.2 10.0 10.5 8.0 15-24 years 12.2 10.3 12.7 13.1 12.9 10.3 (Source: Calculated from ABS, 2007 and 2012) Greater Adelaide Figure 1 Scatterplot of Youth Unemployment Rates for 40 Metro Perth and Peel Region SLAs, 1991 and 2011 45.0 Youth (15-24 years) Unemployment Rate 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 Joondalup - South 1991 Fremantle - Inner 1991 Kwinana 2011 Fremantle - Inner 2011 Metro Perth and Peel 1991-21.7% MPP 2011-10.3% 0.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 1991 2011 (Source: Calculated from ABS, 2007 and 2012) FACTBase 2
The Profile and Spatial Distribution of Perth s Youth Unemployment In 2011, 15-19 year olds accounted for the majority (52.7%) of the unemployed young people in metro Perth; 20-24 years made up the remaining 47.3 per cent (Table 2). Males accounted for a greater proportion (54.1%) of unemployed young people than females (45.9%). There was a higher proportion (51.9%) of unemployed young people looking for part-time rather than full-time work in 2011. This is not surprising given the fact that 43.5 per cent of unemployed young people were enrolled in full-time study whilst 5.3 per cent were studying part-time. -born 15-24 year olds made up just over two-thirds (68.0%) of the unemployed in 2011, whilst overseas-born young people accounted for 31.0 per cent. Figure 2 shows the spatial distribution of young people who were unemployed in 2011 across the Perth and Peel metropolitan region. The south-west metropolitan areas of Kwinana and Rockingham and the Peel Region SLAs of Mandurah and Waroona had over 8.0 per cent of their youth population who were unemployed and looking for either part-time or full-time employment. Of the eight SLAs that had the lowest proportion of unemployed youth amongst their young people, six were located within the central metropolitan area: (i) Cambridge; (ii) Claremont; (iii) Cottesloe; (iv) Mosman Park; (v) Peppermint Grove; and (vi) Vincent. The other two SLAs with the lowest proportion of unemployed youth were Fremantle Inner in the southwest and Stirling Coastal in the northern metropolitan area. FACTBase 3
Table 2 Unemployed Youth and Student Status by Age by Sex, Metro Perth and Peel, 2011 Metro Perth and Peel 15-19 years 20-24 years Total full-time work part-time work full-time work part-time work full-time work part-time work Male Full-time student 116 36 0 1,434 651 11 73 84 0 467 687 7 189 120 0 1,901 1,338 18 Part-time 56 6 0 85 31 0 83 41 0 92 46 0 139 47 0 177 77 0 student attending 1,413 327 27 210 70 6 1,769 626 33 192 88 0 3182 953 60 402 158 6 Institution 0 0 0 4 6 0 7 0 0 3 5 0 7 0 0 7 11 0 stated, full-time/ Both 20 6 5 6 0 0 24 8 11 6 0 0 44 14 16 12 0 0 both institution and full-time/ Female Full-time student 108 24 0 1,578 664 9 55 73 0 452 595 9 163 97 0 2030 1259 18 Part-time 60 8 0 105 27 4 59 41 0 81 46 3 119 49 0 186 73 7 student attending 995 198 12 227 50 3 977 444 15 343 168 8 1972 642 27 570 218 11 Institution 4 3 0 4 5 0 0 0 0 3 4 0 4 3 0 7 9 0 stated, full-time/ Both 16 4 3 8 3 3 14 3 0 3 7 0 30 7 3 11 10 3 both institution and full-time/ Total Full-time student 224 60 0 3,012 1,315 20 128 157 0 919 1,282 16 352 217 0 3931 2,597 36 Part-time 116 14 0 190 58 4 142 82 0 173 92 3 258 96 0 363 150 7 student attending 2,408 525 39 437 120 9 2,746 1,070 48 535 256 8 5154 1595 87 972 376 17 Institution 4 3 0 8 11 0 7 0 0 6 9 0 11 3 0 14 20 0 stated, full-time/ Both 36 10 8 14 3 3 38 11 11 9 7 0 74 21 19 23 10 3 both institution and full-time/ (Source: ABS Tablebuilder) FACTBase 4
Figure 2 Proportion of Unemployed Youth to Total Youth Population for 40 Metro Perth and Peel Region SLAs, 2011 Wanneroo - North-West Joondalup-North Wanneroo - North-East Swan 1. Mosman Park 2. Cottesloe 3. Peppermint Grove 4. Claremont 5. Nedlands 6. Cambridge 7. Subiaco 8. Perth - Remainder 9. Perth - Inner 10. Vincent 11. Stirling (South-Eastern) 12. Bayswater 13. Bassendean 14. Victoria Park 15. South Perth 16. East Fremantle Joondalup-South Wanneroo-South Stirling-Coastal Stirling - Central 12 13 6 10 11 7 8 9 Belmont 4 5 2 14 3 15 1 16 * Melville Canning * Fremantle-Inner Gosnells Fremantle - Remainder Cockburn Kalamunda Armadale Mundaring Kwinana Rockingham Serpentine-Jarrahdale Mandurah ¹ (Source: Calculated from ABS, 2012) Waroona Murray 0 5 10 20 km Legend Proportion of Unemployed to Total Youth Population, 2011 Below 5.0% 5.1-6.5% 6.6-8.0% Over 8.0% FACTBase 5
The Patterns and Trends in Perth s Youth Unemployment As already noted, there have been significant reductions in the unemployment rates across all 40 SLAs between 1991 and 2011. Nevertheless, when plotting the unemployment rate in 1991 against the 2011 figures for each SLA, it can be seen from Figure 3 that relatively high rates of unemployment have persisted in certain areas. These include: (i) the 1950s industrial hubs of Kwinana (35.2%; 14.1%) and Rockingham (25.1%; 12.5%) in the south-west; (ii) Mandurah (29.7%; 13.5%), Murray (26.1%; 11.6%) and Waroona (21.1%; 14.0%) in the Peel Region areas that have been largely dependent on agriculture; and (iii) the once peri-urban areas of Wanneroo North-West (31.1%; 12.1%) and Wanneroo South (25.7%; 10.8%) in the north. Even in the SLAs of Perth Inner (24.1%; 11.5%) and Perth Remainder (33.5%; 11.4%) where there is a major concentration of businesses and thus employment opportunities, unemployment amongst young people has remained at relatively high levels. Figure 3 Youth Unemployment Rate for 40 Metro Perth and Peel Region SLAs, 1991 and 2011 15.0 2011 Youth Unemployment Rate 13.0 11.0 9.0 7.0 Joondalup South 16.7, 8.1 Cambridge 17.1, 7.4 Canning 19.4, 11.9 Gosnells 22.8, 11.6 Cottesloe Subiaco 19.1, 11.5 20.7, 11.1 South Perth Bassendean 20.0, 10.8 Joondalup North 18.5, 10.2 Melville 16.8, 9.0 Nedlands 18.1, 9.3 20.1, 8.9 Claremont 20.2, 8.5 Kalamunda 17.8, 7.9 Stirling-Coastal 19.5, 7.5 Waroona 21.1, 14.0 East Fremantle 22.6, 9.0 Wanneroo-NE 21.6, 8.5 Rockingham 25.1, 12.2 Perth-Inner 24.1, 11.5 Armadale 23.7, 10.9 Murray 26.1, 11.6 Wanneroo South 25.7, 10.8 21.7, 10.6 Stirling-SE Belmont Fremantle-Remainder 22.3, 10.6 21.4, 10.6 Swan 26.9, 10.7 23.1, 10.4 Cockburn Mundaring 23.0, 9.9 20.7, 9.8 Stirling Central 22.8, 9.5 Bayswater 22.4, 9.2 Serpentine Jarrahdale Mosman Park 26.1, 9.5 Peppermint Grove 24.4, 9.0 Vincent 25.3, 7.5 Victoria Park 27.7, 12.5 Mandurah 29.7, 13.5 Wanneroo-NW 31.1, 12.1 Kwinana 35.2, 14.1 Perth-Remainder 33.5, 11.4 5.0 Fremantle-Inner 39.1, 4.0 3.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 1991 Youth Unemployment Rate (Source: Calculated from ABS, 2007 and 2012) FACTBase 6
Conclusions and Policy Implications In overall terms, there has been a significant reduction in the unemployment rate amongst young people between 1991 and 2011. Nevertheless, spatial variations in the level of youth unemployment persist with more established, post-industrial and/or outer-metropolitan SLAs continuing to experience relatively higher levels of unemployment. This problem will likely prevail within those SLAs where the 15-24 year old population cohort is increasing faster than the rate of job creation within local labour sub-markets and where there is a geographical mismatch with employment opportunities. Resolving the geographical mismatch of jobs and the location of unemployed young people can essentially be tackled via two key approaches: (i) bring jobs to the people; and/ or (ii) bring people to the jobs. On the one hand, government policy settings, especially strategic and local planning and zoning, and financial assistance packages could be used to attract investors, firms and businesses to locate in those areas with above average levels of youth as well as general unemployment. Relatedly, the State government could look to relocate some of its functions to certain SLAs. On the other hand, the government (State and Federal) could provide incentives (e.g. subsidised/free public transport for a limited period of time) so as to make it easier and cheaper for young people to be able to travel to those areas where there are jobs. As emphasised in Bulletin No. 39 on youth employment, a key challenge into the future is in managing the buoyancy of other industries of employment in the wake of a cooling resources sector. In the event that economic growth slows or even declines, this poses a risk to job opportunities and security. Simultaneously, this will stimulate greater competition for work amongst all age cohorts who find themselves unemployed. In the face of a slowing or contracting economy and increasing competition for jobs from a growing pool of unemployed, employers are likely to be confronted with the difficulty of retaining or recruiting older and more experienced workers who may command higher wages or younger less experienced workers who may cost less in terms of wages but cost more due to training. Historically, when labour markets have become tight, young and other unemployed people, particularly those with a degree or some form of work experience, have turned to further education and training in order to enhance their skills and improve their future employment potential. However, in an environment where university education costs for both undergraduate and postgraduate studies are increasing, there is a risk that only those who can afford to attend university will be able to compete in the labour market. Given the spatial patterns of employment (Bulletin No. 39), economic stress (Bulletin No. 38) and inequality (Bulletin No. 37), this means that the challenges facing unemployed young people located in SLAs such as Kwinana, Rockingham, Wanneroo North-East and Wanneroo South will be compounded when the economic slowdown takes root. References Bureau of Statistics (2014) Labour Force Australia. ABS Cat. 6202.0. Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra. (2012) 2011 Census of Population and Housing, Time Series Profile, various SLAs. (2007) 2001 Census of Population and Housing, Time Series Profile, various SLAs. Huddleston, V. and Maginn, P. (2014) The Geography of Perth s Youth Employment, FACTBase Bulletin 39, The University of Western Australia and the Committee for Perth, Perth. International Labour Organisation (2014) Global Employment Trends 2014 Risk of a jobless recovery? International Labour Office, Geneva. Martinus, K. (2014) Economic Stress in Perth: A Matter of Geography, FACTBase Bulletin 38, The University of Western Australia and the Committee for Perth, Perth. (2014) Spatial Inequality Across Perth and Peel: Stabilising Post-GFC, FACTBase Bulletin 37, The University of Western Australia and the Committee for Perth, Perth. FACTBase 7
About FACTBase FACTBase is a collaborative research project between the Committee for Perth and The University of Western Australia to benchmark the liveability of Perth and its global connectedness through an examination of Perth s economic, social, demographic and political character. The FACTBase team of academics and researchers condense a plethora of existing information and databases on the major themes, map what is happening in Perth in pictures as well as words, and examine how Perth compares with, and connects to, other cities around the world. Copyright This paper is copyright of The University of Western Australia and the Committee for Perth. While we encourage its use, it should be referenced as: Huddleston, V. and Maginn, P. (2014) The Geography of Perth s Youth Unemployment, FACTBase Bulletin 40, The University of Western Australia and the Committee for Perth, Perth. Acknowledgement The authors acknowledge the assistance of Mei Ruu Kok, a UWA BSc Urban and Regional Planning graduate, in preparing the maps used in this Bulletin. The Committee for Perth is a member-funded organisation and we acknowledge Foundation partners: About the authors Veronica Huddleston is an Associate Professor of human geography at The University of Western Australia s School of Earth and Environment. With an extensive international development assistance experience in Asia and Australia, her research and project interests include macroeconomic and strategic policy and planning, restructuring and adjustment of resourcedependent communities, and social dimensions of development projects. A complete list of current members is available at: www.committeeforperth.com.au Paul Maginn is an Associate Professor and Coordinator of The University of Western Australia s Urban and Regional Planning programs. His research is focused on planning policy, local government and governance, and the social and cultural dynamics of cosmopolitan cities. UniPrint 113001 FACTBase 8