First Quarter, 2010 Investor Presentation

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Transcription:

CIBC February 25, 2010 Forward Looking Statements From time to time, we make written or oral forward-looking statements within the meaning of certain securities laws, including in this presentation, in other filings with Canadian securities regulators or the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and in other communications. These statements include, but are not limited to, statements about our operations, business lines, financial condition, risk management, priorities, targets, ongoing objectives, strategies and outlook for 2010 and subsequent periods. Forwardlooking statements are typically identified by the words believe, expect, anticipate, intend, estimate and other similar expressions or future or conditional verbs such as will, should, would and could. By their nature, these statements require us to make assumptions and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties that may be general or specific. A variety of factors, many of which are beyond our control, affect our operations, performance and results and could cause actual results to differ materially from the expectations expressed in any of our forward-looking statements. These factors include credit, market, liquidity, strategic, operational, reputation and legal, regulatory and environmental risk; legislative or regulatory developments in the jurisdictions where we operate; amendments to, and interpretations of, risk-based capital guidelines and reporting instructions; the resolution of legal proceedings and related matters; the effect of changes to accounting standards, rules and interpretations; changes in our estimates of reserves and allowances; changes in tax laws; changes to our credit ratings; political conditions and developments; the possible effect on our business of international conflicts and the war on terror; natural disasters, public health emergencies, disruptions to public infrastructure and other catastrophic events; reliance on third parties to provide components of our business infrastructure; the accuracy and completeness of information provided to us by clients and counterparties; the failure of third parties to comply with their obligations to us and our affiliates; intensifying competition from established competitors and new entrants in the financial services industry; technological change; global capital market activity; changes in monetary and economic policy; currency value fluctuations; general business and economic conditions worldwide, as well as in Canada, the U.S. and other countries where we have operations; changes in market rates and prices which may adversely affect the value of financial products; our success in developing and introducing new products and services, expanding existing distribution channels, developing new distribution channels and realizing increased revenue from these channels; changes in client spending and saving habits; our ability to attract and retain key employees and executives; and our ability to anticipate and manage the risks associated with these factors. This list is not exhaustive of the factors that may affect any of our forward-looking statements. These and other factors should be considered carefully and readers should not place undue reliance on our forward-looking statements. We do not undertake to update any forward-looking statement that is contained in this presentation or in other communications except as required by law. Investor Relations contacts: John Ferren, Vice-President, CFA, CA (416) 980-2088 Investor Relations Fax Number (416) 980-5028 Visit the Investor Relations section at www.cibc.com 2 1

CIBC Overview Gerry McCaughey President and Chief Executive Officer First Quarter, 2010 Financial Review David Williamson Senior Executive Vice-President and Chief Financial Officer 2

Q1 Summary $ Per Share EPS : $1.58 Includes (3) Gain on Structured Credit Run-off 0.04 Cash EPS : $1.60 MTM Losses on Corp. Loan Hedges (0.03) Write-down of Future Tax Asset (0.06) Tier 1 Capital (0.05) Ratio: 13.0% Core Operating Results (vs. Q4/09) Helped by: Higher Wholesale Banking revenue Strong volume growth and higher spreads in Retail Markets (vs. Q1/09) Lower Loan Losses Hurt by: Higher effective tax rate Higher expenses (3) Diluted, accrual basis. Non-GAAP financial measure, see Slide 20. See Slide 17 for details. 5 CIBC Quarterly Statement of Operations F 09 F 10 ($MM) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Revenue 2,022 2,161 2,857 2,888 3,061 Provision for Credit Losses 284 394 547 424 359 Non-Interest Expenses 1,653 1,639 1,699 1,669 1,748 Income Before Taxes and Non-Controlling Interests 85 128 611 795 954 Income Taxes (67) 174 172 145 286 Non-Controlling Interests 5 5 5 6 16 Net Income/(Loss) 147 (51) 434 644 652 Affected by an Item of Note, see Slides 17 19 for details. 6 3

CIBC Retail Markets Revenue Components F 09 F 10 ($MM) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Personal Banking 1,454 1,398 1,518 1,562 1,601 Business Banking 315 301 332 334 331 Wealth Management 323 297 318 337 346 FirstCaribbean 180 204 169 160 157 Other 103 23 (19) (37) (33) 2,375 2,223 2,318 2,356 2,402 vs. Q1/09: Core Canadian businesses had combined revenue growth of $186MM, or 9% compared to Q1/09. The main drivers were: Higher spreads from improved customer pricing Increased volumes in personal deposits, mortgages and personal lending Higher fees, commissions and transactional revenue Stronger equity markets FirstCaribbean hurt by FX Other hurt by lower Treasury allocations 7 CIBC Retail Markets Net Interest Margin (%) 2.77 2.73 2.84 2.88 2.88 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 F 09 F 10 Excludes Treasury; on average interest-earning assets. 8 4

CIBC Retail Markets Quarterly Statement of Operations F 09 F 10 ($MM) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Revenue 2,375 2,223 2,318 2,356 2,402 Provision for Credit Losses 278 325 417 362 365 Non-Interest Expenses 1,291 1,289 1,310 1,338 1,314 806 609 591 656 723 Income Taxes 224 170 170 182 189 Non-Controlling Interests 5 5 5 6 5 Net Income 577 434 416 468 529 Net Income vs. Q1/09: + spreads up + volumes up + stronger equity market + lower effective tax rate lower Treasury allocations higher loan losses higher expenses Affected by an Item of Note, see Slides 17 19 for details. 9 Wholesale Banking Revenue Components F 09 F 10 ($MM) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Capital Markets 332 336 336 261 277 Corporate & Investment Banking 171 211 232 161 212 Other (818) (746) (10) 88 132 Total Revenue (TEB) (315) (199) 558 510 621 Total Revenue (330) (213) 552 503 613 vs. Q4/09: Core businesses were up $67MM, or 16% compared to Q4/09. The main drivers were: Merchant Banking gains Increased fees in Corporate Credit Products Higher revenues from Fixed Income trading, FX options and Commodities Other up $44MM helped by lower mark-to-market losses and Q4/09 included negative valuation adjustments Affected by an Item of Note, see Slides 17 19 for details. Taxable equivalent basis. Non-GAAP financial measure, see Slide 20. 10 5

Wholesale Banking Quarterly Statement of Operations F 09 F 10 ($MM) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Revenue (330) (213) 552 503 613 Provision for Credit Losses (11) 18 129 82 24 Non-Interest Expenses 281 262 272 245 318 (600) (493) 151 176 271 Income Taxes (223) (148) 61 16 76 Non-Controlling Interests - - - - 11 Net Income /(Loss) (377) (345) 90 160 184 Net Income vs. Q4/09: + lower valuation adjustments + lower loan losses +Merchant Banking gains higher expenses higher effective tax rate Affected by an Item of Note, see Slides 17 19 for details. 11 Structured Credit Run-off Q1/10 Pre-Tax After-Tax EPS Effect ($/share) [1] Credit Valuation Adjustments with Financial Guarantors 388 270 0.70 [2] Unhedged USRMM Gains 81 56 0.15 [3] Unhedged non-usrmm Write-downs (42) (29) (0.08) [4] Purchased Credit Derivatives Hedging Loans & Receivables (186) (130) (0.34) [5] Gains/(Losses) on Unwinds (78) (54) (0.14) [6] Other (138) (96) (0.25) [7] 25 17 0.04 12 6

First Quarter, 2010 Financial Review Appendix CIBC Retail Markets Balances ($ B) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Funds Managed: Cards, Outstanding 13.9 13.8 13.8 13.9 14.0 Residential Mortgages & Personal Loans 152.2 154.3 157.5 159.7 161.1 (3) AUA : F 09 F 10 Consumer Deposits & GICs 88.3 92.0 99.8 103.1 104.1 Mutual Funds 40.9 41.7 43.0 43.8 44.7 Wood Gundy 84.5 87.9 96.1 98.6 102.1 (3) Spot balances; excluding FirstCaribbean. Administered assets. Non-GAAP financial measure, see Slide 20. Excludes client cash and short positions. 14 7

(%) Canadian Equity New Issues 12.4 Wholesale Banking Market Share 17.7 13.6 10.8 14.6 Equity Trading Canada - % of shares Traded - Total (3) 10.5 17.4 18.8 15.1 16.7 Corporate Debt New Issues (4) 11.2 17.2 11.7 16.1 14.2 M&A Rank (5) # 1 # 2 # 2 # 2 # 1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 F 09 F 10 Source: CIBC Equity Capital Markets; Based on total amount underwritten. Includes all equity deals greater than $30MM. F`09 market share = 13.3%; (3) Based on TSX total market share by volume; (4) Source: Bloomberg Financial Markets; Full credit to lead league tables; (5) Based on fiscal year-to-date. Includes all deals, excludes advisors to foreign targets. 15 Other Non Interest Income F 09 F 10 ($MM) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Gains/(Losses) 1 32 4 15 47 Income from equity-accounted investments (46) (8) 9 14 7 Gains/(Losses) on non-trading derivatives 40 (151) (161) (22) (31) Cost of Credit Hedges (7) (7) (5) (4) (4) Other (3) 90 92 119 114 89 78 (42) (34) 117 108 16 (3) On sale of loans, equity-accounted investments, limited partnerships and subs/divestitures. Affected by an Item of Note, see Slides 17 19 for details. Includes other commissions and fees. 8

Q1 2010 Items of Note Pre-Tax After-Tax EPS Effect ($/share) Strategic Business Unit Gain on Structured Credit Run-off Activities 25 17 0.04 Wholesale Bkg Mark-to-Market on Credit Derivatives re. Corporate Loan Hedges (17) (12) (0.03) Wholesale Bkg Write-down of Future Tax Asset (25) (0.06) Retail Mkts, Corp. & Other 8 (20) (0.05) 17 Q4 2009 Items of Note (Cont d) Pre-Tax After-Tax EPS Effect ($/share) Strategic Business Unit Gain on Structured Credit Run-off Activities 85 58 0.15 Wholesale Bkg Valuation Adjustments (42) (27) (0.07) Wholesale Bkg Mark-to-Market on Credit Derivatives re. Corporate Loan Hedges (36) (25) (0.06) Wholesale Bkg Favourable Tax-Related items 62 0.16 Wholesale Bkg, Corp. & Other 7 68 0.18 Q3 2009 Mark-to-Market on Credit Derivatives re. Corporate Loan Hedges (155) (106) (0.27) Wholesale Bkg Gain on Structured Credit Run-off Activities 95 65 0.17 Wholesale Bkg Loan Losses within the Leveraged Loan and Other Run-off Portfolios (83) (56) (0.15) Wholesale Bkg Provision for Credit Losses in General Allowance (42) (29) (0.07) Corp. & Other Litigation Provision/Other Operational Costs (27) (18) (0.05) Retail Mkts, Corp. & Other Decrease in Credit Valuation Adjustments 26 18 0.05 Wholesale Bkg Interest Income on Income Tax Reassessments 25 17 0.04 Corp. & Other Valuation Charges (22) (14) (0.04) Wholesale Bkg (183) (123) (0.32) 18 9

Q2 2009 Items of Note (Cont d) Pre-Tax After-Tax EPS Effect ($/share) Strategic Business Unit Loss on Structured Credit Run-off Activities (475) (324) (0.85) Wholesale Bkg Mark-to-Market on Credit Derivatives re. Corporate Loan Hedges (168) (115) (0.30) Wholesale Bkg Repatriation Activities 159 3 0.01 Corp. & Other Valuation Charges (100) (65) (0.17) Wholesale Bkg Provision for Credit Losses in General Allowance (65) (44) (0.11) Retail Mkts, Corp. & Other Legacy Merchant Banking Net Losses/ Write-downs (49) (29) (0.08) Wholesale Bkg Write-off of Future Tax Assets (57) (0.15) Wholesale Bkg, Corp. & Other (698) (631) (1.65) Q1 2009 Loss on Structured Credit Run-off Activities (708) (483) (1.27) Wholesale Bkg Mark-to-Market on Credit Derivatives re. Corporate Loan Hedges 94 64 0.17 Wholesale Bkg Losses re. Leveraged Leases (92) (51) (0.13) Wholesale Bkg Merchant Banking Losses /Write-downs (87) (52) (0.14) Wholesale Bkg Retained Earnings Repatriation (48) 4 0.01 Corp. & Other (841) (518) (1.36) 19 Non GAAP Financial Measures Cash Earnings Per Share, Taxable Equivalent Basis & Managed Loans For further details, see Non-GAAP measures within the Notes to users section on page i of the Q1/10 Supplementary Financial Information available on www.cibc.com. 20 10

First Quarter, 2010 Risk Review Tom Woods Senior Executive Vice-President and Chief Risk Officer Q1 Credit Review Total Specific Provisions ($MM) Gross Impaired Loans ($MM) 1,911 1,926 408 357 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1 F 09 F 10 F 09 F 10 22 11

U.S. Commercial Real Estate As of Q1/10 US$MM Gross Loans/BAs GILs Retail 612 34 Multi-family 400 101 Hotel 391 25 Multi-Use 375 98 Office 177 - Other 181 56 Q1/10 Total 2,136 315 23 Cards (Managed) ($MM) 300 8.0% 250 7.0% 6.0% 200 5.0% 150 4.0% 100 50 96 106 101 114 130 138 170 192 248 224 218 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0 2006 2007 Q1/08 Q2/08 Q3/08 Q4/08 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 0.0% PCL Net Credit Loss Ratio During Q4/09, we reclassified the specific allowance for credit card to general allowance. Prior period information was restated. Specific provision shown equal to full year /4. 24 12

Coverage on Loan Portfolio Specific Allowance as % of GILs 60.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% CIBC 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% Peer Average* 30.0% 20.0% 20.0% 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 F 08 F 09 F 10 0.0% * Based on public disclosure of major Canadian peer banks. 25 Q1 Trading Revenue (TEB) Distribution Frequency Distribution of Daily Trading Revenue (TEB) for Q1 2010 14 Trading Revenue Days 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 More (C$ MM) For further details, see Non-GAAP measures within the Notes to users section on page i of the Q1/10 Supplementary Financial Information available on www.cibc.com. Trading revenue (TEB) excludes revenue related to the consolidation of variable interest entities, reductions in fair value of structured credit assets, counterparty credit valuation adjustments, and other items which cannot be meaningfully allocated to specific days. For further details see the Q1/10 Supplementary Financial Information available on www.cibc.com. 26 13

Tier 1 Ratio Movement in Q1 0.60% 0.11% (0.32%) 13.0% 0.56% Capital Issued Dividends 12.1% Earnings Credit RWA Q4 F 09 Q1 F 10 27 First Quarter, 2010 Q&A 14