The AIR Earthquake Model for Canada
Magnitude 3.0 to 3.9 4.0 to 4.9 5.0 to 5.9 6.0 to 6.9 > 7.0 Vancouver Quebec City Ottawa 250 Historical earthquakes (Source: AIR Worldwide and Geological Survey of Canada) 500 km Montreal
Major earthquakes strike off the coast of British Columbia and along the St. Lawrence valley, where there are high concentrations of population and exposure. AIR s model uses an up-to-date view of seismicity based on the latest hazard information from the Geological Survey of Canada and collaboration with leading academics. Seismicity About 4,000 earthquakes occur annually in Canada, although most are too small to be felt.
Wave Height (m) < 0.5 0.5 to 1 1 to 2 2 to 5 5 to 10 > 10 Vancouver Victoria Timeline and wave height for a simulated tsunami passing Vancouver Island (Source: AIR Worldwide)
Earthquake damage to buildings and infrastructure is primarily caused by ground shaking. But recent events around the world have shown that earthquake-related secondary perils can significantly increase total damage and loss. AIR s model incorporates the industry s first tsunami and landslide models for Canada, damage from soil liquefaction, and stateof-the-art fire following simulation. Secondary Perils
Montreal at night (Source: NASA)
About 40% of Canadians live and work in regions with the greatest seismic hazard, which has become a growing concern for insurers and regulators. AIR s 2013 study for the Insurance Bureau of Canada highlighted the potential insurance and economic impacts of major earthquakes in these areas. That study was made possible by AIR s highly detailed industry exposure database of Canada s properties and infrastructure at risk. Exposure
Buildings in Montreal, Canada (Source: Jean Gagon)
The AIR model estimates losses to residential, commercial, and industrial assets, and to automobiles. These calculations have been tailored to reflect Canada s unique building stock and have been peer reviewed by experts at leading Canadian institutions. The model also incorporates findings from damage surveys, the evolution of local building codes, detailed claims data analysis, and structural engineering research. Vulnerability
Timeline of Significant Histor M~7.0, Charlevoix, Québec M9.0, Offshore Vancouver Island, British Columbia M5.8, Montréal M6.0, Charlevoix, Québec M6.0, Charlevoix, Québec M6.5, Charlevoix, Québec M7.5, Washington State, USA M8.2, Alaska Panhandle Region M6.9, Vancouver Island, British Columbia M5.5, Gulf Islands, British Columbia M6.2, Charlevoix, Québec M7.2, Grand Banks, Newfoundland M 7.0, Queen Charlotte Islands, British Columbia M7.3, Baffin Bay, Nunavut 1663 1700 1732 1791 1860 1870 1872 1899 1918 1920 1925 1929 1929 1933 193
ical Earthquakes in Canada M6.2, Témiscaming, Québec M5.6, Cornwall, Ontario M7.3, Vancouver Island, British Columbia M8.1, Queen Charlotte Island M7.4, Queen Charlotte Islands, British Columbia M5.7, Miramichi, New Brunswick M6.9, Nahanni, Northwest Territories M5.4, Prince George, British Columbia M5.9, Saguenay, Québec M6.3, Ungava, Québec M4.7, Georgia Strait, British Columbia M6.8, Nisqually, Washington State, USA M5.3, Near Dawson Creek, British Columbia M5.0, Val-des-Bois, Québec M7.7, Haida Gwaii region, offshore 5 1944 1946 1949 1970 1982 1985 1986 1988 1989 1997 2001 2001 2010 2012
Guideline B-9: Earthquake Exposure Sound Practices Canada is focused on improving its regulatory oversight of both the solvency and corporate governance of insurance companies operating there. The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions Canada (OSFI) expects insurers to effectively measure, monitor, and limit earthquake exposure. AIR s modeling and consulting solutions should be a critical component of your plans for compliance with Guideline B-9 and your submissions to regulators.
Insurance Bureau of Canada (IBC) In a 2013 study for the IBC, AIR modeled two realistic earthquake scenarios, one off the coast of British Columbia and the other near Quebec City. The western scenario causes modeled economic losses of nearly CAD 75 billion (of which 20 billion is insured) and the eastern scenario causes economic losses of CAD 60 billion (of which 12 billion is insured). Designed as a tool to help insurance companies plan for and mitigate risk from future earthquakes impacting Canada, our study is the most comprehensive of its type. One of the most destructive natural disasters that Canada could experience is a major earthquake beneath a densely populated metropolitan area. British Columbia and the Ontario/Quebec region are at particular risk.
What s your risk? Where are your concentrations of exposure relative to high hazard areas? Based on detailed modeling of your portfolio, how likely are different levels of loss? To help you answer these questions and truly own your risk, AIR is releasing a comprehensive update to our earthquake model for Canada in the summer of 2014. The model will provide insurers and industry stakeholders with the most advanced and current view of shake, tsunami, landslide, and fire-following risk in Canada. Combined with AIR s Touchstone catastrophe risk management platform, the AIR Earthquake Model for Canada is the most advanced tool for assessing earthquake risk for the Canadian insurance market. For more information on AIR s modeling and consulting solutions for Canada, visit www.air-worldwide.com/canada or contact an AIR representative at 617-267-6645.
About AIR Worldwide AIR Worldwide (AIR) is the scientific leader and most respected provider of risk modeling software and consulting services. AIR founded the catastrophe modeling industry in 1987 and today models the risk from natural catastrophes and terrorism in more than 90 countries. More than 400 insurance, reinsurance, financial, corporate, and government clients rely on AIR software and services for catastrophe risk management, insurance-linked securities, detailed site-specific wind and seismic engineering analyses, and agricultural risk management. AIR is a member of the Verisk Insurance Solutions group at Verisk Analytics (Nasdaq:VRSK) and is headquartered in Boston with additional offices in North America, Europe, and Asia. Visit us at www.air-worldwide. com.