Banking & Housing Finance

Banking & HFC January 5, 2017 Banking & Housing Finance Better days ahead for HFCs and Retail Banks Excess liquidity forces banks toward aggressive rate cuts Since Banks adopted MCLR, there had been a rate cut of 30 bps by SBI (from April 16-Dec16). However, with deluge of deposits at one hand and no corresponding demand for loans in the system, banks were forced to park the excess money in bond markets, which ideally would earn much lower rates than the lending rates in the current environment. In order to overcome the situation, banks have started cutting lending rates aggressively. SBI announced a 90 bps cut in the lending rates recently. Accordingly, the 6 months MCLR based lending rates stand at 7.95%, a sharp 120 bps lower than what it was at the beginning of the financial year. Following this, almost all the banks have gone for sharp cut in the lending rates. While the MCLR rates have been cut by 90 bps by SBI, it has increased the spread on the home loans and hence, the effective cut in the home loans would be 35-50 bps. The credit growth for the industry has been below the expected line and one of the lowest in recent years. For the fortnight end 9 th Dec, 2016, the system wide loan grew by a meager 5.35% YoY, while deposits grew by a whopping 15.3%, largely due to demonetization. The credit deposit ratio of the industry has fallen sharply to 69% from 77% in April, 2016. While credit demand for retail loans (including home loans) continued to be strong and grew by 15.2% YoY and 8.0% YTD, the problem lies in off take of credit from the industry. Industrial loans still account for the largest pie of the system wide credit at 39.5%, but it reported a YoY drop of 3.3% and a YTD decline of 5.5%. Dwindling utilization levels of some of capex oriented industry has resulted in large corporate shying away from availing incremental credit. While credit demand will take time to pick up in a big way, the sharp cut in lending rates should arrest the deceleration in credit growth. A revival in home demand could propel the overall economy to a large extent. In the long run, lower interest rates could prove to be a boon for the housing sector and the economy as a whole. Decline in deposit rates SBI Domestic Term Deposit Rates Apr- 2015 Jun- 2015 Aug- 2015 Oct- 2015 Oct- 2016 Nov- 2016 1 Yr to 455 Days 8.25 8.00 7.50 7.25 7.05 6.90 456 days to less than 2 years 8.50 8.25 7.75 7.50 7.10 6.95 2 Yrs to less than 3 years 8.50 8.25 7.75 7.50 7.00 6.85 3 years to less than 5 years 8.50 8.25 7.25 7.00 6.50 6.50 5 years and up to 10 years 8.25 8.00 7.25 7.00 6.50 6.50 Corresponding cut in lending rates Month 6 Months 1 Yr 3 Yrs Apr-16 9.15 9.20 9.35 May-16 9.10 9.15 9.30 Jun-16 9.10 9.15 9.30 Jul-16 9.10 9.15 9.30 Aug-16 9.05 9.10 9.25 Sep-16 9.05 9.10 9.25 Oct-16 9.00 9.05 9.20 Nov-16 8.85 8.90 9.05 Dec-16 8.85 8.90 9.05 Jan-17 7.95 8.00 8.15 PM Modi s new scheme for subsidized home loans could trigger a growth for the sector In his address to the nation, Hon Prime Minister, Mr. Narendra Modi, announced some benefits which could make affordable housing more realistic. Under the new scheme, there would be two more slabs. Home loans upto `9 lakh taken in 2017 will receive an interest subvention of 4%, while loans upto `12 lakh taken in 2017 will receive an interest subvention of 3%. This scheme will run along with the existing scheme under which loans upto `6 lakh are provided to the EWS/LIG segment at a subsidized interest rate of 6.5%. Siddharth Purohit 022 3935 7800 Ext: 6872 siddharth.purohit@angelbroking.com Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

Despite higher rates home loans segment continued to witness strength; lower rates should fuel incremental growth Though home interest rates were higher, the demand for loans continued to be strong in the system. However, the recent drop in lending rates could lift the sentiment and we could see further acceleration in the home loan demand. While we may not hear big discounts by the real-estate developers, but the fact is that there has been a decline in real-estate prices in some pockets of the country after demonetization. While its too early to say, but it is fair to assume that with lower cash transactions, incrementally higher amount will be transacted through the official channels for buying and selling of property. This could benefit banks in growing their home loan book and will benefit the housing finance companies in general. Exhibit 1: Home Loan Book of Banks Banks (` cr) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 CAGR- FY11-16 SBI 89,914 102,739 119,467 140,738 159,237 190,552 16.2% % Growth YoY 26.3% 14.3% 16.3% 17.8% 13.1% 19.7% ICICI Bank 54,126 57,983 57,863 70,917 89,481 109,899 15.2% % Growth YoY 14.0% 7.1% -0.2% 22.6% 26.2% 22.8% Axis Bank 18,876 28,178 35,074 44,569 57,567 62,334 27.0% % Growth YoY 28.0% 49.3% 24.5% 27.1% 29.2% 8.3% BoB 12,539 14,133 16,045 19,558 22,542 24,968 14.8% % Growth YoY 21.6% 12.7% 13.5% 21.9% 15.3% 10.8% PNB 11,816 12,649 14,332 17,038 21,544 26,923 17.9% % Growth YoY 11.3% 7.0% 13.3% 18.9% 26.4% 25.0% Exhibit 2: Loan growth trend of HFCs HFCs (` cr) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 CAGR- FY11-16 HDFC 119,640 145,896 172,652 199,255 230,242 263,885 17.1% % Growth YoY 19% 22% 18% 15% 16% 15% LIC Housing 51,417 63,493 78,368 92,020 109,112 125,988 19.6% % Growth YoY 34% 23% 23% 17% 19% 15% India Bulls Housing 27,500 34,400 41,200 52,200 68,700 75,300 22.3% % Growth YoY 38.9% 25.1% 19.8% 26.7% 31.6% 9.6% DHFL 14,122 19,355 33,902 40,451 51,040 61,775 34.3% % Growth YoY 61.2% 37.1% 75.2% 19.3% 26.2% 21.0% Can Fin Homes 2,205 2,673 4,030 5,874 8,302 10,753 37.3% % Growth YoY 5.2% 21.2% 50.8% 45.8% 41.3% 29.5% GIC Housing Fin 3,416 3,872 4,539 5,313 6,598 7,912 18.3% % Growth YoY 16.5% 13.3% 17.2% 17.0% 24.2% 19.9% As we can see from the above table, even in a higher interest rate scenario large players like SBI has reported ~16% CAGR in home loans over FY11-16. Those with lower base, like Axis Bank, have rather grown at much higher rate during the period. Among the HFCs, HDFC despite on a higher base has reported a ~17% CAGR over the same period. The midsized players have however grown at a much faster pace than the large players. January 5, 2017 2

Housing For All by 2022 The PM had announced housing for all in his address to the Joint Session of Parliament on 9 th June, 2014. Accordingly, an ambitious target of building 20 million new homes was taken. The Govt plans to implement the project via four modes: Slum Redevelopment Affordable Housing through credit linked Subsidy Affordable Housing in partnership Subsidy for beneficiary led individual house construction or enhancement A. Slum Redevelopment- Under this scheme, the Govt intends to use land under slums to provide houses to the eligible slum dwellers. Also, the Govt intends to attract private participation by providing extra FSI/TDR/FAR, if required, to make the project viable. B. Credit Linked Subsidy Scheme- HUDCO and NHB have been identified as Central Nodal Agency to channelize this subsidy. Under the scheme, the Govt provides interest subvention for EWS and LIG for new houses or incremental housing. C. Affordable Housing in Partnership- Under this, the Govt will provide financial assistance to EWS houses being built with different partnerships by States. Central assistance at the rate of `1.5 lakh per EWS house would be available in such projects. An affordable housing can be a mix of houses for different categories, but central assistance will be provided only if at least 35% of the houses in the projects are for EWS category and at least 250 houses are in a single project. D. Beneficiary led individual house construction or enhancement- Under this facility, the Govt gives assistance to individual families belonging to EWS categories to either construct new houses or enhance existing houses on their own to cover the beneficiaries who are not able to take advantage of other components of the mission. Such families may avail of central assistance of `1.5 lakh for construction of new houses or for enhancement of existing houses under the mission. Scope of Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojna This is an ambitious project by the Govt for allowing ownership of a residential house for people at the bottom of the pyramid. Under the scheme, the Govt intends to provide small sized housing units at an affordable price or give direct subsidy for the renovation or construction/acquiring of new housing units. Allocation for Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojna was hiked by 277% for FY17 at `5,400cr compared to `1,952cr in FY16. The Credit Linked Subsidy component of the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojna received allocation of `475cr in 2016-17 against `200cr in 2015-16. As there has been two news slabs now with higher amount, we expect a jump in the allocation for the subsidy in the upcoming budget. January 5, 2017 3

Exhibit 3: The Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojna Current schemes Beneficiary Dwelling Area Eligibility Criteria EWS ( Economically 30 Sq Meters Having an annual income upto ` 3 Lakhs Weaker Section) LIG ( Low Income Group) 60 Sq Meters Having Annual Income Upto `3-6 lakhs Under this scheme, loans upto `6 lakh is provided to the beneficiary at a subsidised interest rate of 6.5% for tenure of 15 years. The maximum interest subsidy is `2.2 lakh. One of the key features of the scheme is that the property should be acquired in the name of the female head of the family or in the joint names of the male head of the family and his wife. New Scheme by Hon Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi; While there is already a scheme available for home loans at a subsidized interest rates. Two new middle income categories have been created under the Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana in urban areas. Loans up to `9 lakh taken in 2017 will receive an interest subvention of 4%. Loans up to `12 lakh taken in 2017 will receive an interest subvention of 3%. Exhibit 4: New schemes announced by Govt. Loan Amount Upto Subsidy Eligibility `2 lakhs 3% For Rural `9 lakhs 4% For Urban `12 lakhs 3% For Urban While more details on the eligibility of the home loans under this scheme is still awaited, it is certainly a positive development as the housing industry and the Banks and NBFC lending to these segments. Since, the subsidy amount is directly credited to the loan account of the borrower and is netted off against the principal amount, the financing agencies don t have to worry about the subsidy collection part. The revised slab as per our view will allow more borrowers coming forward and availing the benefit of the scheme. While average ticket size of most of the HFCs is still higher than the slab announced by the Govt, the new scheme could bring in new segment of customers for the HFCs and Banks. Exhibit 5: Avg ticket Size FY16 Company ` Lakhs HDFC 22.0 LIC Housing 21.0 DHFL 18.0 India Bulls Housing 25.0 PNB Housing 32.0 Gruh Finance 6.4 Can Fin Homes 17.4 REPCO Home Finance 13.0 January 5, 2017 4

Progress on Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojna (Urban) is so far muted, but should pick up now While the PMAY is an ambitious project, the progress so far seems unimpressive. As per the latest data of Ministry of Housing and Urban Poverty Alleviation dated 8 th Dec, 2016, the number of houses completed until now is only 6,716 out of the 12,75,976 to be constructed. The total project cost is estimated to be `69,085cr of which `18,854cr will be given via Central Assistance. However, a sum of `4,275cr has been so far released by the centre for the same. While the progress until now doesn t look very impressive, but off late the Govt has started focusing on the same. We expect allocations for this purpose to go up in upcoming budget. Exhibit 6: PMAY- HFA - State Wise Progress Houses Central Assistance Central Share Number of Houses Grounded for (` cr) Project Cost Completed Yet to start Involved Released Involved (EWS) construction AP 10,579 2,897 516 193,147 4,182 1,008 83,612 Bihar 2,237 775 246 51,690 14,076 26,877 Chasttisgarh 2,279 300 120 20,027 2,925 738 16,364 Goa Gujarat 6,801 1,355 438 102,853 37,082 3,439 42,488 Haryana 23 11 5 759 759 Himachal Pradesh 97 29 11 1,914 1,077 810 J&K 28 14 1 939 224 Jharkhand 1,466 607 243 40,486 7,677 20,550 Karnataka 3,919 1,370 179 91,330 29,893 Kerala 442 221 51 15,267 8,449 Madhya Pradesh 6,369 1,126 346 75,509 25,007 32,698 Maharastra 12,112 1,718 372 115,297 61,930 Odisha 1,456 501 143 35,391 23,843 Punjab 1,182 597 64 42,497 10,936 Rajasthan 1,493 220 80 14,667 5,536 7,851 Tamil Nadu 5,884 2,540 300 169,356 31,997 1,005 21,249 Telangana 4,881 1,207 399 80,481 2,910 63,533 UP Uttarakhand 314 70 28 4,675 464 4,211 West Bengal 4,945 1,834 449 122,259 19,753 526 54,601 Sub Total 66,506 17,393 3,991 1,178,544 152,686 6,716 510,878 North East states Arunachal Pradesh 3 1 70 Assam 728 365 24,340 Manipur 255 146 19 9,725 3,090 Meghalaya 1 0 32 Mizoram 206 154 8 10,286 1,364 Nagaland 222 151 10,083 Sikkim 0 Tripura 1,164 643 257.38 42,896 42,896 Total NE States 2,579 1,461 284 97,432 - - 47,350 Grand Total 69,085 18,854 4,275 1,275,976 152,686 6,716 558,228 Source: Ministry Of Housing and Urban Poverty Alleviation January 5, 2017 5

Exhibit 7: Growth of Non-Food Credit (` bn.) Nov-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 YoY YTD MoM Non Food Credit 62,397 65,469 67,556 66,240 65,362 4.8 (0.2) (1.3) Agriculture 8,260 8,829 9,427 9,302 9,112 10.3 3.2 (2.0) Industry 26,687 27,307 26,522 26,047 25,793 (3.3) (5.5) (1.0) Services 14,403 15,411 16,590 15,849 15,849 10.0 2.8 0.0 Personal Loans/ Retail 13,046 13,922 15,017 15,041 15,031 15.2 8.0 (0.1) Total 62,396 65,469 67,556 66,239 65,785 5.4 0.5 (0.7) Priority Sector 21,183 22,259 23,389 22,985 22,421 5.8 0.7 (2.5) Non Food Credit growth which was sluggish so far could see some uptick in the near term Bank credit growth has been under pressure for many quarters now. With several industries operating at sub-optimal utilization levels (70-73%), the corporates have postponed or cancelled capacity expansion. While fresh capex has taken a back seat, incremental working capital loans have been also under pressure. Some of the large corporate, which had been borrowing aggressively earlier are under stress and are looking forward for de-leveraging. Further, even though RBI had gone in for a 175 bps repo rate cut since April-2015, banks had not passed on all the benefits to the industry citing in adequate liquidity. However, the 90 bps cut in key rates by SBI has brought in renewed hope of credit cycle picking up. To match the completion virtually, all the banks have reduced their lending rates. While the credit growth could still remain sluggish in the near term, a lower interest rate regime could propel the consumption demand and effectively enhance credit demand in the medium to long run. Exhibit 8: Segmental Composition of Loans in India Composition Nov-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Agriculture 13.2% 13.5% 14.0% 14.0% 13.9% Industry 42.8% 41.7% 39.3% 39.3% 39.5% Services 23.1% 23.5% 24.6% 23.9% 23.6% Personal Loans/ Retail 20.9% 21.3% 22.2% 22.7% 23.0% Historically, Industrial segment has always occupied the largest pie of the credit demand in India. However, as it can be seen from the above table that the growth rate has decelerated in that segment and rather has declined in recent months. As a result, its share in total credit has fallen to 39.5% at the end of Nov-16 from 42.8% in Nov-15. On the other hand, the demand for retail credit continued to be strong, which is visible from the increasing pie of retail loans. January 5, 2017 6

Exhibit 9: Segmental Bifurcation Of Loans In India (` bn.) Nov-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 YoY YTD MoM Agriculture 8,260 8,829 9,427 9,302 9,112 10.3 3.2 (2.0) Industry 26,687 27,307 26,522 26,047 25,793 (3.3) (5.5) (1.0) Micro & Small 3,722 3,715 3,630 3,543 3,435 (7.7) (7.5) (3.0) Medium 1,148 1,148 1,107 1,087 1,033 (10.0) (10.0) (5.0) Large 21,817 22,444 21,784 21,417 21,325 (2.3) (5.0) (0.4) Services 14,403 15,411 16,590 15,849 15,426 7.1 0.1 (2.7) Transport operators 963 997 1,049 1,020 1,017 5.6 2.0 (0.3) Computer Software 197 191 183 181 179 (9.1) (6.3) (1.1) Tourism Hotel & Resturanant 378 371 385 383 380 0.5 2.4 (0.8) Shipping 105 104 98 105 107 1.9 2.9 1.9 Professional Services 945 1,046 1,206 1,218 1,177 24.6 12.5 (3.4) Trade 3,605 3,811 4,050 3,925 3,728 3.4 (2.2) (5.0) Commercial Real-estate 1,708 1,776 1,810 1,787 1,762 3.2 (0.8) (1.4) NBFC 3,124 3,527 3,701 3,345 3,165 1.3 (10.3) (5.4) Others 3,377 3,587 4,108 3,885 3,910 15.8 9.0 0.6 Personal Loans 13,046 13,922 15,017 15,041 15,031 15.2 8.0 (0.1) Consumer Durables 165 178 195 196 196 18.8 10.1 0.0 Housing 7,052 7,468 8,058 8,113 8,153 15.6 9.2 0.5 Advances Against FDs 605 667 664 613 595 (1.7) (10.8) (2.9) Against shares & Bonds 69 64 59 46 46 (33.3) (28.1) 0.0 Credit Card Outstanding 376 377 432 463 463 23.1 22.8 0.0 Education 677 682 712 710 710 4.9 4.1 0.0 Vehicle Loans 1,379 1,529 1,635 1,680 1,673 21.3 9.4 (0.4) Other Personal Loans 2,723 2,958 3,262 3,220 3,194 17.3 8.0 (0.8) Priority Sector 21,183 22,259 23,389 22,985 22,421 5.8 0.7 (2.5) Agriculture & Allied 8,260 8,826 9,385 9,286 9,079 9.9 2.9 (2.2) Micro & Small Enterprises 8,105 8,476 8,732 8,468 8,200 1.2 (3.3) (3.2) Housing 3,352 3,423 3,585 3,690 3,690 10.1 7.8 0.0 Micro Credit 192 188 182 230 230 19.8 22.3 0.0 Education Loans 607 601 620 626 607 0.0 1.0 (3.0) Weaker Section 4,533 4,774 4,938 4,843 5,045 11.3 5.7 4.2 January 5, 2017 7

Exhibit 10: Bifurcation of Industrial Credit and Trend (` bn.) Nov-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 YoY YTD MoM Industry 26,687 27,307 26,522 26,047 25,793 (3.3) (5.5) (1.0) Mining & Quarrying 354 390 342 344 344 (2.8) (11.8) 0.0 Food Processing 1,461 1,501 1,377 1,293 1,264 (13.5) (15.8) (2.2) Beverages & Tobacco 177 181 171 168 162 (8.5) (10.5) (3.6) Textiles 1,969 2,058 1,946 1,906 1,864 (5.3) (9.4) (2.2) Leather & Leather Products 102 105 107 104 100 (2.0) (4.8) (3.8) Wood & Wood Products 100 95 104 104 100 0.0 5.3 (3.8) Paper & Paper Products 349 355 352 345 337 (3.4) (5.1) (2.3) Petroleum, Coal & Nuclear Fuels 441 512 499 482 488 10.7 (4.7) 1.2 Chemicals & Fertlizers 1,534 1,645 1,541 1,516 1,501 (2.2) (8.8) (1.0) Rubber, Plastic and their products 363 374 378 366 356 (1.9) (4.8) (2.7) Glass & Glassware 87 89 87 84 81 (6.9) (9.0) (3.6) Cements 552 543 559 538 529 (4.2) (2.6) (1.7) Basic Metals & Metal Products 3,973 4,160 4,163 4,116 4,093 3.0 (1.6) (0.6) All Engineering 1,545 1,542 1,534 1,499 1,469 (4.9) (4.7) (2.0) Vehicles, Vehicle Parts & Transport Equipments 673 690 731 719 700 4.0 1.4 (2.6) Gems & Jewellery 694 727 726 685 674 (2.9) (7.3) (1.6) Construction 756 745 788 787 785 3.8 5.4 (0.3) Infrastructure 9,655 9,648 9,039 8,971 9,007 (6.7) (6.6) 0.4 1.Power 5,865 5,799 5,300 5,208 5,253 (10.4) (9.4) 0.9 2.Telecom 907 913 770 838 849 (6.4) (7.0) 1.3 3.Roads 1,778 1,775 1,837 1,810 1,802 1.3 1.5 (0.4) 4.Other Infrastructure 1,108 1,661 1,133 1,114 1,103 (0.5) (33.6) (1.0) Other Industries 1,901 1,945 2,079 2,020 1,940 2.1 (0.3) (4.0) January 5, 2017 8

Exhibit 11: Further Bifurcation of Industrial Loans As % of Industrial Credit Nov-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Mining & Quarrying 1.3% 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% Food Processing 5.5% 5.5% 5.2% 5.0% 4.9% Beverages & Tobacco 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% Textiles 7.4% 7.5% 7.3% 7.3% 7.2% Leather & Leather Products 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% Wood & Wood Products 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% Paper & Paper Products 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% Petroleum, Coal & Nuclear Fuels 1.7% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% Chemicals & Fertlizers 5.7% 6.0% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% Rubber, Plastic and their products 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% Glass & Glassware 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% Cements 2.1% 2.0% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% Basic Metals & Metal Products 14.9% 15.2% 15.7% 15.8% 15.9% All Engineering 5.8% 5.6% 5.8% 5.8% 5.7% Vehicles, Vehicle Parts & Transport Equipments 2.5% 2.5% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% Gems & Jewellery 2.6% 2.7% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% Construction 2.8% 2.7% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Infrastructure 36.2% 35.3% 34.1% 34.4% 34.9% 1.Power 22.0% 21.2% 20.0% 20.0% 20.4% 2.Telecom 3.4% 3.3% 2.9% 3.2% 3.3% 3.Roads 6.7% 6.5% 6.9% 6.9% 7.0% 4.Other Infrastructure 4.2% 6.1% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% Other Industries 7.1% 7.1% 7.8% 7.8% 7.5% Exhibit 12: Sectors with high share of credit Top 5 Sectors in Credit Nov-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Infrastructure 36.2% 35.3% 34.1% 34.4% 34.9% 1. Power 22.0% 21.2% 20.0% 20.0% 20.4% 2. Telecom 3.4% 3.3% 2.9% 3.2% 3.3% 3. Roads 6.7% 6.5% 6.9% 6.9% 7.0% 4. Other Infrastructure 4.2% 6.1% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% Top 5 Sector ( Ex- Infra) 36.4% 36.6% 37.0% 36.9% 36.7% Basic Metals & Metal Products 14.9% 15.2% 15.7% 15.8% 15.9% Textiles 7.4% 7.5% 7.3% 7.3% 7.2% All Engineering 5.8% 5.6% 5.8% 5.8% 5.7% Food Processing 5.5% 5.5% 5.2% 5.0% 4.9% Construction 2.8% 2.7% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Infra+ Other Top 5 Sectors 72.5% 72.0% 71.1% 71.3% 71.7% January 5, 2017 9

Housing Finance Companies with retail focus will continue to see strong growth, while pvt banks with retail focus will see loan growth accelerating In the earlier scheme, the interest subvention was available only for loans up to `6 lakh, while the balance amount was supposed to be borrowed at the normal rate of interest. Looking at the high property prices in urban area, the amount looked small and hence was not enough to encourage for buying new homes. However, with the recent rise in slab, on one hand and lower overall home loans rates, on the other hand should help in meeting the needs of the LIG. HFCs with focus on retail loans have done fairly well in the last few years. While incrementally, there will be more competition in the industry, we believe there is enough scope for all the players to grow. Further players like DHFL, which are largely focused on the LIG/MIG segment, should see higher incremental demand in the medium term. We continue to have a BUY rating on DHFL and LIC Housing. In the banking space, we believe among the PSU, SBI will lead the way backed by sustainable low cost deposit base. SBI is already a formidable player in the home loan segment (2nd after HDFC Ltd) and in the absence of industrial credit demand it could become aggressive in selling home loans. We continue to remain constructive on the retail oriented Pvt Banks and have a BUY rating on ICICI Bank and Axis Bank and an ACCUMULATE rating on HDFC Bank. January 5, 2017 10

Research Team Tel: 022-39357800 E-mail: research@angelbroking.com Website: www.angelbroking.com DISCLAIMER Angel Broking Private Limited (hereinafter referred to as Angel ) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and Metropolitan Stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and Portfolio Manager with SEBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor. Angel Broking Private Limited is a registered entity with SEBI for Research Analyst in terms of SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 vide registration number INH000000164. Angel or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities Market. Angel or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation / managed or co-managed public offering of securities of the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. Investors are advised to refer the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports available on our website to evaluate the contrary view, if any. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Pvt. Limited endeavors to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Neither Angel Broking Pvt. Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. January 5, 2017 11