Recent Economic Developments June 28, 218 Cabinet Office Government of Japan Contact for inquiries: Directorate General for Economic Research +81-3-6257-1567
<Assessments of the current state of the Japanese economy> April The Japanese economy is recovering at a moderate pace. May The Japanese economy is recovering at a moderate pace. () June The Japanese economy is recovering at a moderate pace. () 1
<Assessments of the current state of the Japanese economy> April May June Private consumption Private consumption is picking up. Business investment Business investment is increasing moderately. Exports Exports are picking up. Industrial production Industrial production is increasing moderately. Corporate profits Corporate profits are improving. Firms judgments on business conditions Firms judgments on current business conditions are improving. The employment situation The employment situation is improving steadily. Prices Consumer prices are rising moderately in recent s. 2
<Short-term prospects> April The economy is expected to continue recovering, supported by the effects of the policies, while employment and income situation is improving. However, attention should be given to the uncertainty in overseas economies and the effects of fluctuations in the financial and capital markets. May The economy is expected to continue recovering, supported by the effects of the policies, while employment and income situation is improving. However, attention should be given to the uncertainty in overseas economies and the effects of fluctuations in the financial and capital markets. () June The economy is expected to continue recovering, supported by the effects of the policies, while employment and income situation is improving. However, attention should be given to the uncertainty in overseas economies and the effects of fluctuations in the financial and capital markets. () 3
(June) <Policy stance> The Government will make its utmost efforts to ensure the economy overcomes deflation and achieve economic revitalization and fiscal consolidation simultaneously, in addition to make effort toward the reconstruction and revitalization from the Great East Japan Earthquake and the restoration and reconstruction from the 216 Kumamoto Earthquake. To this end, the Government decided the "Basic Policies for Economic and Fiscal Management and Reform 218", the "Growth Strategy 218", the "Regulatory Reform Work Plan", and the "Basic Policies for Overcoming Population Decline and Vitalizing Local Economy in Japan 218" on June 15th. Hereafter, the Government implements economic and fiscal policies based on these plans. In addition, the Government steadily implements the "Japan's Plan for the Dynamic Engagement of All Citizens". Moreover, in order to tackle the enormous challenge of the declining birthrate and aging population by promoting Supply System Innovation and Human Resources Development Revolution as two wheels of a cart, the Government steadily implements the "New Economic Policy Package" and the "Basic Design for Human Resources Development Revolution" compiled on June 13th. About work style reform, the Government will try to pass the related bills during the current session of the Diet. In addition, the Government implements the FY217 supplementary budget and the FY218 budget swiftly and steadily. The Government continuously pursues to expand the economic virtuous cycles which cover local areas, SMEs and small-scale businesses, through directing growing corporate profits towards investment, wage increase and further improvement in the employment situation. The Government expects the Bank of Japan to achieve the price stability target of two percent in light of economic activity and prices. 4
Corporate Profits 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Current profits trillion yen Non-manufacturing Manufacturing 212 13 14 15 16 17 FY Source: Ministry of Finance; Cabinet Office s.a., trillion yen 1.2 1..8.6 Current Profits General machinery industry s.a., trillion yen 3. 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2.4 2. quarter quarter 212 13 14 15 16 17 18 212 13 14 15 16 17 18 Information, communication and transportation industry Machinery Orders s.a., s.a., s.a., trillion yen Current Profits trillion yen Sales and Labor costs trillion yen 3. 34 7.5 2.6 32 Sales 7. 3 2.2 6.5 28 1.8 6. 26 1.4 24 Labor costs 5.5 1. 22 5. quarter quarter 212 13 14 15 16 17 18 212 13 14 15 16 17 18 5
Wages and Business Investment Summer bonuses and wages of major companies y/y Summer bonuses Amount 6.71 967 thousand yen 4.56 918 thousand yen 3.74 927 thousand yen contribution compared with FY212, %pt Non manufacturing Manufacturing Business investment 212 13 14 15 16 17 Note: Including software and R&D investment and excluding land purchasing expenses. Source: Ministry of Finance FY Business investment plans Wages 2.54 2.18 7 6 5 4 3 (y/y, %) + 3.8% + 5.4% 2.19 2 1 217FY (April-June 217 Survey) 218FY (April-June 218 Survey) Sources: Japan Federation of Economic Organizations Source: Ministry of Finance; Cabinet Office 6
Private Consumption s.a., 211=1 112 11 Synthetic consumption index (Real) 5. 4. 3. 2. y/y contribution, % Real wage income of employees Real wage income of employees Nominal wage Number of employees +2.9% 1.. 18 16 14 12 1 3MA (3 s moving average) 1 4 7 1 1 4 7 1 1 4 7 1 1 4 7 1 1 4 7 1 1 4 213 14 15 16 17 18 Source: Cabinet Office -1. -2. -3. 48 46 44 42 4 38 36 34 32 3 Inflation Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ 4 quarter, 215 16 17 18 Sources: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications; Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare; Cabinet Office D.I., 3MA Consumer confidence Below 6 years old Above 6 years old 4 3 2 1 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 5 214 15 16 17 18 Source: Cabinet Office The number of households by age of head of household million households (%) 7 Above 65 ratio of above 65 years old35.3 6 years old Below 65 5 yeas old 19.7 1995 2 25 21 215 4 3 2 1 Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. 7
1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 2.2 2. 1.8 1.6 1.4 s.a., tril. yen, 3MA Housing construction Housing construction starts s.a., ann., thousand units, 3MA s.a., ann., thousand units, 3MA Total Housing for rent Owner-occupied housing Housing for sale 2 15 1 4 7 1 1 4 7 1 1 4 7 1 1 4 7 1 1 4 7 1 1 4 213 14 15 16 17 18 Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Public investment Amount of public construction completed 5 45 4 35 3 25 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 compared with December 216, 3MA, % 25 Others Liquid crystal device 2 Semiconductor manufacturing equipment IC 15 1 5 s.a., 21=1, 3MA Asia Source: Ministry of Finance Exports Exports volume index by region MoM (3MA) Total Asia U.S. EU May. +.3% +.7% +.% -1.2% U.S. 75 1 4 7 1 1 4 7 1 1 4 7 1 1 4 7 1 1 4 7 1 1 45 213 14 15 16 17 18 Exports of IT-related goods for Asia s.a., 21=1, 3MA Total EU 13 125 12 115 11 15 1 95 9 85 8 1.2 1. 1 4 7 1 1 4 7 1 1 4 7 1 1 4 7 1 1 4 7 1 1 4 7 1 1 4 7 1 1 4 211 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism -5 1 4 7 1 1 4 217 18 Source: Ministry of Finance 8
Industrial Production Production by industry Worldwide Smartphone Shipments 11 s.a., 21=1, 3MA s.a., 21=1, 3MA 14 1,6 Million units Forecast 1,4 1 IIP(Apr.218) MoM(3MA): +1.3% 13 1,2 1, 8 6 4 9 General-purpose, production and business oriented machinery 12 2 21 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Source: IDC 8 7 Transport equipment Electronic parts and devices 11 1 9 55 5 45 4 35 Billion US dollars Semiconductor Market Forecast Forecast (217 Nov.) Forecast (218 June.) 6 8 1 4 7 1 1 4 7 1 1 4 7 1 1 4 7 1 1 4 6 214 15 16 17 18 3 216 17 18 19 Source: World Semicondutor Trade Statistics Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry 9
Price/Employment situation 12. 11.5 11. 1.5 CPI (Consumer Price Index) s.a., 215=1 Core-core CPI (less fresh food and energy) Core CPI (less fresh food) 5 4 3 2 1 y/y, % chg. CPI (Frequently purchased items) Items purchased more than 15 times a year (Fresh food, Food, Gasoline etc.) 1. 99.5 99. CPI -1-2 -3 +1.9% 98.5 4 7 1 1 4 7 1 1 4 7 1 1 4 7 1 1 4 214 15 16 17 18 Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications -4 4 7 1 1 4 7 1 1 4 7 1 1 4 7 1 1 4 214 15 16 17 18 Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications 2. 1.5 1..5. -.5-1. CPI (excluding impact of a consumption tax increase) y/y, % chg. Core-core CPI (less fresh food and energy) CPI.3 Core CPI (less fresh food) 4 7 1 1 4 7 1 1 4 7 1 1 4 7 1 1 4 214 15 16 17 18 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1..8.6.4.2 Umemployment rate and active job openings-to-applicants ratio s.a.,ratio s.a., % Active job opennings-to-applicants ratio [Highest level since January 1974] Umemployment rate 2.5 [Lowest level since August 1993] 2.5 2. 1 4 7 1 1 4 7 1 1 4 7 1 1 4 7 1 1 4 7 1 1 4 1.59 1.9 Active job openings-to-applicants ratio (Regular employees) 213 14 15 16 17 18 4.5 4. 3.5 3. Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications Sources: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications; Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare 1