Chart Collection for Morning Briefing November 5, 1 Dr. Edward Yardeni 51-97-73 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana --1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
35 3 75 5 Figure 1. S&P 5 BULL & BEAR MARKETS & CORRECTIONS: -1 (ratio scale) 11/ 35 3 75 5 5 5 175 175 15 15 -day moving average 15 15 1 1 75 75 5-5.% (517) -1.% (7) -19.% (157) -9.% () -9.9% () -7.7% -5.% () (3) -5.% (19) 9 1 11 1 13 1 15 1 17 1 19-7.% () -1.%-13.3% (9) (1) -1.% (13) Note: Corrections are declines of 1% or more, while minor ones are 5%-1% (all in blue shades). Bear markets are declines of % or more (in red shades). Number of calendar days in parentheses. Source: Standard & Poor s. -9.9% (39) 5 3 Figure. S&P 5 INDEX P 3 9 9 7 11/ 7 5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1 Note: P = Fed Chairman Powell interview on October 3. Source: Standard & Poor s. 5 Page 3 / November 5, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
3 3 1 Figure 3. S&P 5 AFTER MID-TERM ELECTIONS: 1951-now* (percent changes 3//1 months from day of elections) 11/ 3 3 1 1 195 3M +15. M +19.7 1M +33. 195 3M +. M +11. 1M +11.1 19 3M +.7 M +17. 1M +1.9 197 3M +1.7 M +. 1M +1.7 197 3M +5.1 M +19.9 1M +1.7 197 3M +3.5 M +5.5 1M +. 19 3M +. M +17.9 1M +19.9 19 3M +13. M +17.5 1M +1.1 199 3M +1.9 M +. 1M +5.1 199 3M +3.3 M +1.5 1M +7.1 199 3M +1.5 M +1.9 1M +. 3M (7.) M +1. 1M +1.9 3M +.9 M +9. 1M +.7 1 3M +9.3 M +1. 1M +3.7 1 3M +1.5 M +5.1 1M +.5 19 3M +13. M +19. 1M +. 1951 195 191 19 1971 197 191 19 1991 199 1 11 1 1 * S&P 5 up (down) during 1-month span following election day in green (red) shaded area. Prior to 199, markets were closed on election day, therefore used "latest close" for those dates. Source: Haver Analytics, YRI calculations. 1 Figure. S&P 5 REVENUES & US PURCHASING MANAGERS SURVEY 5 15 1 5 Q Oct 55 5-5 5-1 -15 - -5 S&P 5 Revenues (using dollars per share, yearly percent change) US Purchasing Managers Survey: Manufacturing PMI 93 9 95 9 97 9 99 1 3 5 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 15 1 17 1 19 Source: Standard & Poor s and Institute for Supply Management. 35 3 Page / November 5, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
15 Figure 5. S&P 5 REVENUES PER SHARE (consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale) 15 1 1/5 1 19 13 1 13 1 1 11 Consensus Forecasts Annual Revenues Forward Revenues* 11 1 1 9 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 15 1 17 1 19 9 * Time-weighted average of consensus revenue estimates for current and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. 19 Figure. S&P 5 FORWARD REVENUES & EARNINGS PER SHARE 19 17 1/5 17 15 Forward Revenues* (1.5) 15 Forward Earnings* (175.) 1/5 13 13 11 11 9 9 7 7 5 5 3 9 95 9 97 9 99 1 3 5 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 15 1 17 1 19 3 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor s. Page 5 / November 5, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
Figure 7. PRODUCTIVITY & REAL GDP: NONFARM BUSINESS (yearly percent change) - - - - - - - - - - - - -1 Real NFB Output (3.7) Real GDP (3.) 9 91 9 93 9 95 9 97 9 99 1 3 5 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 15 1 17 1 19 Real NFB Output (3.7) Productivity (1.3) 9 91 9 93 9 95 9 97 9 99 1 3 5 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 15 1 17 1 19 Real NFB Output (3.7) Hours Worked (.) 9 91 9 93 9 95 9 97 9 99 1 3 5 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 15 1 17 1 19 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics. - - - - - - - - - - - - -1 Page / November 5, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
1 1 Figure. PRODUCTIVITY (quarterly percent change, saar) 1 1 - - - - - 1 3 5 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 15 1 17 1 19 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. - Figure 9. UNIT LABOR COSTS (yearly percent change) - - - - - 1 3 5 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 15 1 17 1 19 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. - Page 7 / November 5, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
1 1 1 Figure 1. COMPENSATION MEASURES (yearly percent change) Average Hourly Earnings All Workers (3.1) Average Hourly Earnings Production & Nonsupervisory Workers (3.) ECI Total Compensation (.9) Nonfarm Hourly Compensation (including benefits) (.) 1 1 1 Oct - 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 1 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. - 15 Figure 11. EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX FOR PRIVATE INDUSTRY WORKERS / NONFARM PRODUCTIVITY VS CORE PERSONAL CONSUMPTION DEFLATOR (yearly percent change) 15 1 1 5 Ratio ECI & Productivity Core PCED Deflator 5 Sep -5 1 3 5 7 9 9 91 9 93 9 95 9 97 9 99 1 3 5 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 15 1 17 1 19 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. -5 Page / November 5, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
1 Figure 1. REAL AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS PRODUCTION & NONSUPERVISORY WORKERS* (1 dollars per hour, ratio scale) Sep 1 19 19 1 1 17 17 1 1 15 15 1 1 13 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 1 13 * Average hourly earnings deflated by personal consumption expenditures deflator. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Haver Analytics. 1 1 1 Figure 13. UNEMPLOYMENT RATES: TOTAL, SHORT-TERM, & LONG-TERM (percent) Total (3.7) Short-Term* (.9) Long-Term** (.) 1 1 1 Oct 5 5 5 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 1 * Unemployed for less than 7 weeks. ** Unemployed for 7 weeks and longer. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page 9 / November 5, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
3. 3. 3...... 1. 1. 1. 1. 1...... Figure 1. US TREASURY 1-YEAR & -YEAR YIELDS & FED FUNDS RATE (percent) Interest Rates 1-Year Bond Yield (3.) -Year Treasury Yield (.91) Fed Funds Rate Target (.13) 1 15 1 17 1 19 Source: Federal Reserve Board. 11/ 11/ 11/ 3. 3. 3...... 1. 1. 1. 1. 1...... Figure 15. 1-YEAR US TREASURY BOND & TIPS YIELDS (percent, daily) 1-Year Treasury Bond Yield (3.) TIPS Yield (1.1) 11/ 11/ - 3 5 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 15 1 17 1 19 Source: Federal Reserve Board. - Page 1 / November 5, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
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