Sensex (36652) / Nifty (11067) Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart We had a complete roller coaster ride yesterday as we saw index giving wild swings in either direction twice in a range of nearly 150 points. There was some sort of tussle going around among the bulls and the bears. Due to last hour V-shaped recovery, the bulls managed to win this battle for the day and as a result, the Nifty managed to reclaim the 11000 mark with some authority. After 5-6 days of distress selling, our markets finally had some respite. The broader market participation in this relief move certainly bodes well and hence, today we are likely to see an extension of this bounce back towards 11120-11180 levels. However, it would be too early to take this call whether the worse is behind us now. We need to keep observing how market behaves around the cluster of resistances going forward. But for the day, we expect this positivity to extend and since broader market too participated in it, momentum traders are likely to get better trades for next couple of days. For the day, the support can be seen in range of 11020-10960. The ideal strategy would be to focus on stocks, which are poised for a strong bounce back and traders need to keep booking profits unless the larger picture becomes clear. Key Levels Support 1 11020 Resistance 1 11120 Support 2 10960 Resistance 2 11180 Nifty Bank Outlook - (25330) Post opening on a flat note, the Nifty Bank index continued with its negative momentum and breached the 24700 mark during the first hour of the trade. However, the index recovered smartly in the last hour to end the day with gains of 1.44 percent over its previous day's closing. Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart In our yesterday's report, we had highlighted about the oversold momentum setups which usually lead to pullback moves. The index traded with high volatility during the day and pulled back higher in the last hour to conclude on a positive note after five consecutive negative days. In downtrends, the pullback moves are generally sharp and hence, traders should be geared for such sharp moves. However, the trend continues to be negative and hence traders should also be quick to lock in profits in such high volatile times. The intraday supports for the index are placed around 25138 and 24870 whereas resistances are seen around 25600 and 25725. Key Levels Support 1 25138 Resistance 1 25600 Support 2 24870 Resistance 2 25725
Comments The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 1.97% Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 10.72% as market closed at 11067.45 levels. The Nifty September future closed with a premium of 19.25 points against a premium of 30.55 points in last trading session. The October series closed at a premium of 58.95 points. The INDIA VIX has decreased from 17.42 to 16.68. At the same time, the PCR- of Nifty has increased from 1.05 to 1.13. Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost of carry are GODREJCP, IBULHSGFIN, TV18BRDCST, INFIBEAM and JUSTDIAL. Nifty Vs Views FIIs were net sellers in cash market segment to the tune of Rs. 1232 crores. At the same time, they sold worth Rs. 793 crores in index futures with rise in open interest, indicating formation of fresh shorts in yesterday s trading session In options front, they bought worth Rs. 606 crores with rise in open interest. As far as Nifty options activities are considered, we saw marginal additions in 11100 call option; followed by unwinding in higher price strikes. On the flip side, we saw good amount of addition in 11000 put option. Maximum open interest for September series is placed at 11500 followed by 11200 call and 11000 put options. Post the sharp sell-off in last few sessions, the Nifty index continued the downmove in the first hour of trade yesterday. However, inspite of the index trading well below 11000, we did not see any unwinding in 11000 put option yesterday. The index then recovered smartly in the last hour of the trade to end above 11000 mark. Considering the above analysis and the highest intact in 11000 put, we believe that the 11000 mark would act as strong support in this expiry. Hence, from the expiry perspective, the index could trade in the range of 11000-11200 with higher volatility. Gainers CHOLAFIN 1082500 20.75 1230.40 4.26 BIOCON 8030700 14.12 701.55 5.37 IBULHSGFIN 15982500 13.56 929.65-4.63 CANFINHOME 4247500 13.34 253.80-5.57 NBCC 23574000 10.49 63.85 2.07 DLF 29100000 8.36 177.60-3.86 VEDL 51985500 8.24 230.40 0.43 VGUARD 3309000 7.93 182.10-2.22 Losers ANDHRABANK 7631000-26.99 30.60 6.06 REPCOHOME 638100-17.46 451.20 4.69 ORIENTBANK 16098000-15.52 66.70 1.06 JUSTDIAL 3598000-13.35 492.20-1.94 TORNTPOWER 2154000-11.03 228.15-0.99 MUTHOOTFIN 3418500-10.73 427.65-1.15 ALBK 22110000-10.47 37.75 4.01 AJANTPHARM 772000-10.44 1109.45 1.60 Historical Volatility HV IFCI 80.31 JETAIRWAYS 88.16 EXIDEIND 31.07 BIOCON 49.31 TVSMOTOR 38.43 Put-Call Ratio PCR- PCR-VOL NIFTY 1.13 0.80 BANKNIFTY 0.70 0.72 RELIANCE 0.53 0.76 ICICIBANK 0.51 0.60 INFY 0.55 0.38
FII Statistics for September 25, 2018 Turnover on September 25, 2018 Detail Buy Sell Net Contracts Open Interest Value (in Cr.) Change (%) 11327.76 12121.06 (793.30) 325316 27308.35 1.25 202509.41 201903.82 605.59 1091241 93890.17 3.63 38091.87 37443.14 648.72 1303420 92409.83 1.77 8655.38 8570.66 84.72 140551 9573.05 (1.67) Instrument No. of Contracts Turnover ( in Cr. ) Change (%) 576030 51814.02 33.37 12017911 1112624.09 33.56 2064676 131079.59 17.70 1004472 70737.23 9.87 Total 260584.42 260038.68 545.74 2860528 223181.41 2.24 TOTAL 15663089 1366255 30.41 Nifty Spot = 11067.45 Bull-Call Spreads Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP Bear-Put Spreads Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP Buy 11100 60.35 Sell 11200 20.50 39.85 60.15 11139.85 Buy 11100 71.85 Sell 11000 40.60 31.25 68.75 11068.75 Buy 11100 60.35 Sell 11300 4.85 55.50 144.50 11155.50 Buy 11100 71.85 Sell 10900 22.50 49.35 150.65 11050.65 Buy 11200 20.50 Sell 11300 4.85 15.65 84.35 11215.65 Buy 11000 40.60 Sell 10900 22.50 18.10 81.90 10981.90 Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (September Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation. Nifty Put-Call Analysis
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2 ADANIPORTS 312 325 337 350 362 ASIANPAINT 1,236 1,263 1,284 1,311 1,332 AXISBANK 578 596 608 626 638 BAJAJ-AUTO 2,698 2,743 2,773 2,818 2,847 BAJFINANCE 2,120 2,210 2,270 2,360 2,420 BAJAJFINSV 5,805 5,995 6,123 6,313 6,441 BPCL 351 358 362 368 372 BHARTIARTL 336 348 356 368 376 INFRATEL 261 265 272 277 284 CIPLA 634 648 657 671 680 COALINDIA 265 270 278 283 291 DRREDDY 2,525 2,568 2,594 2,637 2,663 EICHERMOT 24,587 25,093 25,542 26,048 26,496 GAIL 354 362 371 379 388 GRASIM 995 1,017 1,030 1,052 1,066 HCLTECH 1,081 1,099 1,112 1,130 1,143 HDFCBANK 1,896 1,924 1,943 1,971 1,990 HDFC 1,687 1,730 1,757 1,800 1,827 HEROMOTOCO 3,064 3,088 3,107 3,131 3,150 HINDALCO 231 237 241 247 251 HINDPETRO 236 239 243 246 250 HINDUNILVR 1,553 1,592 1,616 1,655 1,679 IBULHSGFIN 702 816 900 1,014 1,098 ICICIBANK 295 303 308 316 322 IOC 149 151 154 156 159 INDUSINDBK 1,619 1,658 1,688 1,727 1,756 INFY 707 717 726 736 745 ITC 289 295 299 305 309 KOTAKBANK 1,094 1,139 1,165 1,210 1,236 LT 1,295 1,307 1,320 1,332 1,345 LUPIN 846 864 876 894 906 M&M 851 872 886 907 921 MARUTI 7,561 7,780 7,899 8,118 8,237 NTPC 162 166 168 172 174 ONGC 177 180 182 185 187 POWERGRID 187 190 194 197 201 RELIANCE 1,174 1,202 1,224 1,252 1,274 SBIN 256 263 268 276 280 SUNPHARMA 616 628 637 649 658 TCS 2,125 2,154 2,183 2,212 2,241 TATAMOTORS 232 236 240 244 248 TATASTEEL 561 581 595 615 629 TECHM 731 745 759 773 786 TITAN 760 779 796 815 833 ULTRACEMCO 3,910 3,969 4,009 4,068 4,108 UPL 630 646 655 671 680 VEDANTA 224 227 230 233 236 WIPRO 321 325 330 333 338 YESBANK 177 198 219 240 260 ZEEL 430 440 447 456 463
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