FALCOM RESEARCH Gaurav Kumar Analyst Snehdeep Fulzele Head of Research +966 1 2118455 snehdeep.fulzele@falcom.com.sa FALCOM Financial Services P. O. Box 884 Riyadh 11421 Kingdom of Saudi Arabia GCC Stock Markets Review Q2 2009 July 14, 2009
2009
Contents Executive Summary 02 Bahrain Bahrain All Share Index 04 Kuwait Kuwait All Share Index 05 Oman MSM 30 Index 06 Qatar DSM 20 Index 07 Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index 08 UAE Abu Dhabi Securities Market General Index 09 UAE Dubai Financial Market General Index 10 Risk Return Analysis 11 Valuation Ratios 12 Glossary 13 FALCOM RESEARCH GCC Stock Markets Review Q2 2009 1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY GCC markets on an average gained 16% in the second quarter of 2009, after losing 10% in Q1 2009. Except for Bahrain All Share Index which was down by around 1%, all the other indices posted significant gains in the second quarter. Also, except for Bahrain All Share Index which experienced slight increase in volatility, all the other GCC indices experienced decline in volatility. The rally in the second quarter was backed by a number of positive signals from across the globe, some of which are as follows. Crude Oil prices (Arab Light) increased by 50% (q-o-q) Petrochemical prices also jumped with Naphtha and Propylene prices increasing by 45% and 46% respectively in second quarter CRB metal index increased by 32% The Dow, S&P500, Nasdaq, FTSE and Nikkei indices gained 11%, 15%, 20%, 8% and 22% respectively in the second quarter The emerging economies also experienced significant gains with BRIC indices up by 26%, 43%, 49% and 25% respectively However, the later stage of second quarter saw declines in the GCC stock market indices due to the negative news related to the Saad group of Saudi Arabia, fall in house prices in the UAE, decline in tourism revenues, consumer spending and rising layoffs at companies in financial services domain. After being the worst performer in the first quarter of 2009, Doha Securities Market Index bounced sharply in the second quarter. Dubai Financial Market Index experienced the maximum volatility whereas Kuwait All Share Index had the minimum volatility of daily returns in Q2 2009. The boost in investor sentiments and stock prices led to increase in market capitalization, the total market capitalization of GCC indices on an average increased 20% in Q2 2009 (in USD terms). At the end of Q2 2009, Abu Dhabi Index had the minimum P/E ratio whereas Dubai Financial Market Index had the minimum P/B ratio. Bahrain and Kuwait were the most and least risky markets during the quarter with maximum and minimum coefficient of variation respectively. 160 150 140 130 Rebased Stock Market Indices 120 110 100 90 3/31/2009 4/7/2009 4/14/2009 4/21/2009 4/28/2009 5/5/2009 5/12/2009 5/19/2009 5/26/2009 6/2/2009 6/9/2009 6/16/2009 6/23/2009 6/30/2009 (Source: Bloomberg, FALCOM Research) Abu Dhabi Dubai Qatar Oman Bahrain Kuwait Saudi Arabia Market Total Market Cap (USD million) Indicators for GCC Indices for Q2 2009 PE PBV Dividend Yield Return for Q2 2009 Coefficient of Variation Average daily volume (million) Bahrain 17,639 8.0 1.2 5.2% -0.9% -95.67 1.2 Kuwait 120,699 14.2 1.6 3.3% 19.8% 3.11 685.4 Oman 11,803 9.9 1.7 4.6% 21.2% 5.24 26.7 Qatar 51,847 10.0 2.0 6.0% 32.8% 4.69 18.1 Saudi Arabia 286,686 13.7 1.9 3.8% 19.0% 7.14 328.0 Abu Dhabi 77,698 7.7 1.2 4.0% 5.8% 14.86 233.5 Dubai 39,545 8.7 1.0 3.4% 13.8% 10.58 610.2 (Source: Bloomberg, FALCOM Research) FALCOM RESEARCH GCC Stock Markets Review Q2 2009 2
Except for seven sector indices namely, Insurance, Industrial and Investment in Bahrain; Insurance, Healthcare, Telecom in Abu Dhabi; and Energy & Utilities in Saudi Arabia; all other sector indices recorded positive performance in Q2 2009. The best performing GCC sector index in Q2 2009 was Insurance sector of Saudi Arabia (51.9%) followed by Industrial sector of Oman (51.5%), whereas, the worst performing sector index was Insurance sector of Bahrain (-16%). As compared to the last five quarters, the second quarter of 2009, was the best in terms of performance and level of risk in the GCC markets. Except for the Bahrain All Share Index, all the other GCC indices closed higher. Quarterly Returns for Last Five Quarters Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Bahrain Stock Market Index 2.5% -13.9% -26.7% -11.5% -0.9% Kuwait Stock Market Index 8.2% -16.9% -39.4% -13.3% 19.8% Muscat Securities Market Index 12.1% -25.0% -35.9% -14.9% 21.2% Doha Securities Market Index 24.2% -2.5% -26.1% -29.0% 32.8% Tadawul All Share Index 4.0% -20.2% -35.6% -2.1% 19.0% UAE - Abu Dhabi Stock Market Index UAE - Dubai Financial Market Index (Source: Bloomberg, FALCOM Research) 8.7% -20.1% -39.6% 4.1% 5.8% 1.7% -24.2% -60.4% -4.2% 13.8% FALCOM Research also calculated the correlation coefficient of daily returns between the GCC stock market indices for Q2 2009. The correlation coefficients between the stock indices were low for Q2 2009. Tadawul All Share Index and Bahrain All Share Index had negative return correlation. Abu Dhabi and Dubai Financial Market Indices had the maximum return correlation of 0.73 during Q2 2009. The low correlation coefficients between the GCC indices suggest the scope of diversification benefits for a portfolio based on various GCC indices. Return Correlation Matrix for Q2 2009 Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Abu Dhabi Dubai Bahrain 1.00 0.30 0.23 0.02-0.04 0.14 0.15 Kuwait 0.30 1.00 0.28 0.44 0.20 0.26 0.33 Oman 0.23 0.28 1.00 0.59 0.16 0.51 0.30 Qatar 0.02 0.44 0.59 1.00 0.29 0.54 0.44 Saudi Arabia -0.04 0.20 0.16 0.29 1.00 0.48 0.35 Abu Dhabi 0.14 0.26 0.51 0.54 0.48 1.00 0.73 Dubai 0.15 0.33 0.30 0.44 0.35 0.73 1.00 (Source: Bloomberg, FALCOM Research) FALCOM RESEARCH GCC Stock Markets Review Q2 2009 3
BAHRAIN Performance Indicators Bahrain All Share Index Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Close 1,596 1,582 High (daily close for the Low (daily close for the Average Daily Volume (million) Total Market Cap (USD million) Valuation Indicators 1,793 1,681 1,572 1,579 3.0 1.2 17,257 17,639 1,700 1,600 1,500 31-Mar Bahrain Stock Market Index - Q2 2009 14-Apr 28-Apr 12-May 26-May 9-Jun 23-Jun 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Volume (in millions) P/E 7.4 8.0 VOLUME Bahrain Stock Market Index P/B 1.1 1.2 Dividend Yield (%) 5.5% 5.2% Daily Returns for Q2 2009 Return Analysis 2% Quarterly Return (%) -11.5% -0.9% 1% Average Daily Return (%) -0.21% -0.01% Standard Deviation of Daily Returns Maximum Daily Return (%) 0.0071 0.0091 1.34% 1.99% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% 1-Apr 8-Apr 15-Apr 22-Apr 29-Apr 6-May 13-May 20-May 27-May 3-Jun 10-Jun 17-Jun 24-Jun Minimum Daily Return (%) -2.24% -4.80% -5% (Source: Bloomberg, Zawya, Bahrain Stock Exchange, FALCOM Research) HIGHLIGHTS Bahrain All Share Index lost around 1% of its value in Q2 2009 after shedding 11.5% in Q1 2009. The index offered positive returns on 30 of 65 trading days. The slight increase in volatility is evident from the fact that the standard deviation of daily returns and the difference between maximum and minimum daily returns increased in Q2 2009 from Q1 2009 levels. The market capitalization of the index was up 2% from USD 17,257 million to USD 17,639 million in Q2 2009. The P/E and P/B increased and dividend yield declined in Q2 2009 mainly due to the increase in market capitalization. The average daily trading volume declined by 59% in Q2 2009. Hotels & Tourism and Insurance sectors had the maximum and minimum returns for the second quarter respectively; Investment and Industrial sectors had the maximum and minimum standard deviation of daily returns respectively. Industrial, Insurance and Investment sectors registered losses in Q2 2009. Investment sector had the maximum return correlation with the index; also Hotels and Tourism sector had lowest correlation with the main index. Banks Sector Indices Performance in Q2 2009 Hotels & Tourism Industrial Insurance Investment Services Market Index Quarterly return 6.1% 6.7% -1.7% -15.7% -7.9% 6.7% -0.9% Average of daily returns Standard deviation of daily returns Return correlation with market index 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% -0.3% -0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.014 0.008 0.002 0.011 0.015 0.008 0.009 0.31 0.03 0.05 0.03 0.66 0.11 1.00 FALCOM RESEARCH GCC Stock Markets Review Q2 2009 4
KUWAIT Kuwait All Share Index Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Performance Indicators Close 6,745 8,080 High (daily close for the 7,611 8,371 Low (daily close for the 6,392 6,745 Average Daily Volume (million) 274.0 685.4 Total Market Cap (USD million) 97,702 120,699 Valuation Indicators 8,500 8,000 7,500 7,000 6,500 31-Mar Kuwait Stock Market Index - Q2 2009 14-Apr 28-Apr 12-May 26-May 9-Jun 23-Jun 1,600 1,100 600 100 Volume (in millions) P/E 7.6 14.2 VOLUME Kuwait Stock Market Index P/B 1.1 1.6 Dividend Yield (%) 6.6% 3.3% Return Analysis Quarterly Return (%) -13.3% 19.8% Average Daily Return (%) -0.24% 3.26% Standard Deviation of Daily Returns 0.0119 0.0088 Maximum Daily Return (%) 2.78% 3.26% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% 1-Apr 8-Apr 15-Apr Daily Returns for Q2 2009 22-Apr 29-Apr 6-May 13-May 20-May 27-May 3-Jun 10-Jun 17-Jun 24-Jun Minimum Daily Return (%) -2.49% -2.11% -3% HIGHLIGHTS Kuwait All Share Index jumped 20% in Q2 2009 after shedding 13.3% in previous quarter. The index offered positive returns on 46 of 65 trading days. Volatility declined as standard deviation of daily returns decreased quarter on quarter. The market capitalization of the index increased 24% from USD 97,702 million to USD 120,699 million in Q2 2009. The P/E and P/B ratios increased and dividend yield declined in Q2 2009 mainly due to the increase in market capitalization. The average trading volume increased 2.5 times in the just concluded quarter. Services and Non Kuwait sectors had the maximum and minimum returns for the second quarter respectively; Food and Non Kuwait sectors had the maximum and minimum standard deviation of daily returns respectively. All the sectors registered significant gains in Q2 2009. Real Estate sector had the maximum return correlation with the index; whereas insurance sector had the minimum. Sector Indices Performance in Q2 2009 Banks Investments Insurance Real Estate Industrial Services Food Non Kuwait Market Index Quarterly return 12.3% 22.1% 22.7% 35.0% 34.2% 47.2% 17.7% 12.3% 19.8% Average of daily returns 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% Standard deviation of daily returns Return correlation with market index 0.018 0.012 0.010 0.014 0.015 0.019 0.025 0.009 0.009 0.71 0.84 0.16 0.87 0.80 0.59 0.36 0.57 1.00 FALCOM RESEARCH GCC Stock Markets Review Q2 2009 5
OMAN Muscat Securities Market Index (MSM 30) Performance Indicators Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Close 4,629 5,612 High (daily close for the Low (daily close for the Average Daily Volume (million) 5,708 5,815 4,224 4,576 12.1 26.7 6,000 5,500 5,000 Muscat Securities Market Index - Q2 2009 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 Volume (in millions) Total Market Cap (USD million) Valuation Indicators 9,566 11,803 4,500 31-Mar 14-Apr 28-Apr 12-May 26-May 9-Jun 23-Jun 10 P/E 7.8 9.9 VOLUME Muscat Securities Market Index P/B 1.4 1.7 Dividend Yield (%) 5.4% 4.6% Return Analysis 6% Daily Returns for Q2 2009 Quarterly Return (%) -14.9% 21.2% 4% Average Daily Return (%) -0.26% 0.31% 2% Standard Deviation of Daily Returns Maximum Daily Return (%) 0.0244 0.0163 6.12% 5.14% 0% -2% -4% 1-Apr 8-Apr 15-Apr 22-Apr 29-Apr 6-May 13-May 20-May 27-May 3-Jun 10-Jun 17-Jun 24-Jun Minimum Daily Return (%) -6.29% -4.60% -6% HIGHLIGHTS Muscat Securities Market Index gained 21% in Q2 2009 after shedding 15% in Q1 2009. The index offered positive returns on 39 of 65 trading days. The decline in volatility is evident from the fact that the standard deviation of daily returns and the difference between maximum and minimum daily returns decreased in Q2 2009 from Q1 2009 levels. The market capitalization of the index was up 23% from USD 9,566 million to USD 11,803 million in Q2 2009. The P/E and P/B ratios increased in Q2 2009 as the market moved up. The average trading volume increased by over 100% in Q2 2009. However, the volumes are significantly lower than UAE, Saudi or Kuwait indices. Industrial and Services & Insurance sectors had the maximum and minimum sector returns and risks for the second quarter respectively. Banks and Investments sector had the maximum return correlation with the index, also all the sectors had relatively high correlations with the main index. Sector Indices Performance in Q2 2009 Banks and Investments Industrial Services & Insurance Market Index Quarterly return 22.7% 51.5% 12.5% 21.2% Average of daily returns 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.3% Standard deviation of daily returns 0.019 0.020 0.014 0.016 Return correlation with market index 0.91 0.71 0.85 1.00 FALCOM RESEARCH GCC Stock Markets Review Q2 2009 6
QATAR Doha Securities Market Index (DSM 20) Performance Indicators Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Close 4,887 6,492 High (daily close for the 6,936 7,377 Low (daily close for the 4,230 4,885 Average Daily Volume (million) 10.5 18.1 7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 Doha Securities Market Index - Q2 2009 45 35 25 15 Volume (in millions) Total Market Cap (USD million) Valuation Indicators 38,582 51,847 4,500 31-Mar 14-Apr 28-Apr 12-May 26-May 9-Jun 23-Jun 5 P/E 7.5 10.0 VOLUME Doha Securities Market Index P/B 1.6 2.0 Dividend Yield (%) 5.9% 6.0% Return Analysis Quarterly Return (%) -29.0% 32.8% 6% 4% Daily Returns for Q2 2009 Average Daily Return (%) -0.49% 0.46% 2% Standard Deviation of Daily Returns Maximum Daily Return (%) 0.0317 0.0216 8.85% 5.92% 0% -2% -4% 1-Apr 8-Apr 15-Apr 22-Apr 29-Apr 6-May 13-May 20-May 27-May 3-Jun 10-Jun 17-Jun 24-Jun Minimum Daily Return (%) -8.26% -4.51% -6% HIGHLIGHTS Doha Securities Market Index gained 33% of its value in Q2 2009 after losing 29% in Q1 2009. It was the worst regional performer in previous quarter but gained the most among the GCC markets in Q2 2009. The index offered positive returns on 38 of 65 trading days. The decline in volatility is evident from the fact that the standard deviation of daily returns and the difference between maximum and minimum daily returns decreased in Q2 2009 from Q1 2009 levels. The market capitalization of the index increased by 34% from USD 38,582 million to USD 51,847 million in Q2 2009. The P/E, P/B and dividend yield increased in Q2 2009 as the stock prices moved up significantly. The average trading volume increased by over 8% quarter on quarter. Services and Insurance sectors had the maximum and minimum sector returns for the second quarter respectively; Industrial sector had the maximum standard deviation of daily returns. All the sectors registered significant gains in Q2 2009 after registering losses in Q1 2009. Banking sector had the maximum return correlation with the index followed by Services and industrial sector. Insurance sector had the lowest return correlation with the index. Sector Indices Performance in Q2 2009 Banks Insurance Industrial Services Market Index Quarterly return 28.4% 15.5% 32.6% 45.2% 32.8% Average of daily returns 0.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% Standard deviation of daily returns 0.022 0.023 0.028 0.022 0.022 Return correlation with market index 0.97 0.62 0.88 0.89 1.00 FALCOM RESEARCH GCC Stock Markets Review Q2 2009 7
SAUDI ARABIA Tadawul All Share Index Performance Indicators Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Close 4,704 5,596 High (daily close) 5,322 6,101 Low (daily close) 4,130 4,717 Average Daily Volume (million) Total Market Cap (USD million) Floating Market Cap as a % of Total Market Cap Valuation Indicators P/E - excluding loss making companies 259 328 235,766 286,686 34.8% 39.0% 9.6 13.7 P/B 1.6 1.9 Dividend yield (%) 3.9% 3.8% Return Analysis Quarterly Return (%) -2.1% 19.0% Average Daily Return (%) -0.01% 0.28% Standard Deviation of Daily Returns 0.0195 0.0179 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% 1-Apr 31-Mar 8-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 22-Apr TASI - Q2 2009 28-Apr 12-May 26-May Volume TASI TASI Daily Returns for Q2 2009 29-Apr 6-May 13-May 20-May 27-May 3-Jun 9-Jun 10-Jun 17-Jun 23-Jun 24-Jun 550 450 350 250 150 Volume (in millions) Maximum Daily Return 5.05% 5.28% -4% Minimum Daily Return -4.76% -3.96% -6% (Source: Tadawul, FALCOM Research) HIGHLIGHTS TASI increased by 19% in Q2 2009 to close at 5,596 on 30 th June 2009. The volatility of daily returns declined slightly in Q2 2009 as compared to Q1 2009. The percentage of floated market capitalization increased in Q2 2009 (39.0%) from Q1 2009 levels (34.8%). Market capitalization of TASI increased by 22% from USD 235,766 million, to USD 286,686 million. The increase in market capitalization was mainly due to the increase in the price levels and listing of the new company Weqaya Takaful. The market capitalization of the newly listed company as on 30 th June 2009 was USD 150.5 million. The average daily trading volume increased in Q2 2009 by around 27%. Q2 2009 P/E ratio (excluding loss making companies) and P/B increased from Q1 2009 levels, mainly due to increase in market capitalization (39%). In Q2 2009, trading took place in the Saudi market for 65 days and on 40 days (62%) the index had positive returns. Insurance and Energy & Utilities had the maximum and minimum quarterly returns respectively. Energy & Utilities was the only sector with negative quarterly return. (Source: Tadawul, FALCOM Research) FALCOM RESEARCH GCC Stock Markets Review Q2 2009 8
UAE ABU DHABI Abu Dhabi Securities Market Index Performance Indicators Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Close 2,488 2,631 High (daily close for the 2,556 2,964 Low (daily close for the 2,137 2,441 Average Daily Volume (million) 88.3 233.5 Total Market Cap (USD million) 69,529 77,698 Valuation Indicators P/E 6.7 7.7 P/B 1.24 1.22 Dividend Yield (%) 4.8% 4.0% Return Analysis Quarterly Return (%) 4.1% 5.8% Average Daily Return (%) 0.08% 0.10% Standard Deviation of Daily Returns 0.0176 0.0143 Maximum Daily Return (%) 5.64% 3.35% Minimum Daily Return (%) -5.06% -3.22% 3,000 2,900 2,800 2,700 2,600 2,500 2,400 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% 31-Mar 31-Mar Abu Dhabi Securities Market Index - Q2 2009 14-Apr 28-Apr 12-May 26-May 9-Jun 23-Jun VOLUME Abu Dhabi Stock Index Daily Returns for Q2 2009 7-Apr 14-Apr 21-Apr 28-Apr 5-May 12-May 19-May 26-May 2-Jun 9-Jun 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 16-Jun 23-Jun Volume (in millions) HIGHLIGHTS Abu Dhabi Securities Market index gained 5.8% in Q2 2009 after gaining 4.1% in Q1 2009. The volatility (measured as standard deviation of daily returns for the and the difference between the maximum and minimum daily returns also declined from quarter-to-quarter. The index gained on 36 of 65 trading days. The total market capitalization increased by 12% from USD 69,529 million in Q1 2009 to USD 77,698 million in Q2 2009. P/E ratio increased in the second quarter mainly due to increasing market capitalization. However, P/B ratio declined slightly depicting higher increase in book values for the listed companies. The average trading volume increased 2.6 times in the second quarter of 2009. Real Estate and Healthcare had the maximum and minimum sector returns for the second quarter respectively; Real Estate and Insurance had maximum and minimum standard deviation of daily returns respectively. Real Estate sector had maximum return correlation with the index followed by Banks and Energy. Healthcare had the lowest return correlation with the main index. Sector Indices Performance in Q2 2009 Banks Insurance Construc tion Consumer Industrial Real Estate Health Care Energy Telecom Market Index Quarterly return 17.7% -4.0% 4.5% 20.2% 24.7% 36.6% -12.0% 2.1% -8.5% 5.8% Average of daily returns Standard deviation of daily returns Return correlation with market index 0.27% -0.06% 0.10% 0.32% 0.37% 0.55% -0.13% 0.07% -0.13% 0.10% 0.017 0.006 0.024 0.027 0.025 0.038 0.038 0.026 0.015 0.014 0.87 0.25 0.58 0.47 0.32 0.88 0.07 0.80 0.68 1.00 FALCOM RESEARCH GCC Stock Markets Review Q2 2009 9
UAE DUBAI Dubai Financial Market Index Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Performance Indicators Close 1,568 1,784 High (daily close for the 1,771 2,198 Low (daily close for the 1,433 1,547 Average Daily Volume (million) 345.0 610.2 Total Market Cap (USD million) 32,705 39,545 Valuation Indicators P/E 6.4 8.7 P/B 0.8 1.0 Dividend Yield (%) 4.8% 3.4% Return Analysis Quarterly Return (%) -4.1% 13.8% Average Daily Return (%) -0.04% 0.23% Standard Deviation of Daily Returns 0.0248 0.0241 Maximum Daily Return (%) 7.91% 4.82% 2,300 2,200 2,100 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% 31-Mar 1-Apr 8-Apr Dubai Financial Market Index - Q2 2009 14-Apr 28-Apr 12-May 26-May 9-Jun 23-Jun VOLUME Dubai Financial Market Index Daily Returns for Q2 2009 15-Apr 22-Apr 29-Apr 6-May 13-May 20-May 27-May 3-Jun 10-Jun 17-Jun 1,700 1,500 1,300 1,100 900 700 500 300 100 24-Jun Volume (in millions) Minimum Daily Return (%) -5.46% -6.13% -6% HIGHLIGHTS Dubai Financial Market Index gained 14% in Q2 2009 after losing 4% in Q1 2009. The decline in volatility is evident from drop in the standard deviation of daily returns that decreased in Q2 2009 from Q1 2009 levels. The index offered positive returns on 36 of 65 trading days. The market capitalization of the index was up 21% from USD 32,705 million to USD 39,545 million in Q2 2009. The P/E and P/B ratios increased in Q2 2009 mainly due to the increase in market capitalization. The average trading volume increased by over 76% in Q2 2009. Utilities and materials had the maximum and minimum sector returns for the second quarter respectively. Utilities and Consumer/Staples had the maximum and the minimum standard deviation of daily returns respectively. Real Estate sector had maximum return correlation with the index followed by Investment and Banks. Materials sector had negative return correlation with the market index (as in Q1 2009). Sector Indices Performance in Q2 2009 Consumer/ Staples Banks Insurance Invest ment Transpor tation Materials Real Estate Telecom Utilities Market Index Quarterly return 4.8% 1.9% 12.5% 22.1% 1.0% 0.0% 33.3% 12.8% 48.3% 13.8% Average of daily returns 0.07% 0.04% 0.19% 0.36% 0.05% 0.02% 0.52% 0.21% 0.73% 0.23% Standard deviation of daily returns 0.0060 0.0168 0.0120 0.0320 0.0255 0.0210 0.0397 0.0240 0.0510 0.0241 Return correlation with market index 0.05 0.87 0.74 0.90 0.81-0.01 0.96 0.73 0.73 1.00 FALCOM RESEARCH GCC Stock Markets Review Q2 2009 10
RISK, RETURN RISK RETURN COMPARISONS Risk, Return and Market Capitalization (USD million) for Q2 2009 40% 35% Qatar (DSM 20) 30% Returns 25% Saudi Arabia Oman (MSM 30) 20% Kuwait 15% 10% Dubai Abu Dhabi 5% Bahrain 0% 0.0050 0.0100 0.0150 0.0200 0.0250-5% Standard Deviation of Daily Returns Chart Description X axis is the standard deviation of daily returns of the indices for the second quarter of 2009. Y axis is the quarterly return for the indices in the second quarter of 2009. Size of the bubble represents the market capitalization of the market indices as on 30 th of June 2009. Conclusions The higher the quarterly return, the better it is, which means the higher the bubble on the y-axis, the better the index performed during the quarter. Doha Securities Market index had the maximum return in Q2 2009, whereas, Bahrain All Share Index had the lowest return, it was the only index with negative returns. The lower the risk the more favorable it is, which means, the closer a bubble to the origin on the x-axis, the lower risk it has. Kuwait stock market index had the minimum risk and Dubai Financial Market Index had the maximum risk. The smaller the size of the bubble the lower the market capitalization. TASI of Saudi Arabia had the maximum market capitalization and Muscat Securities Market Index (MSM 30) had the minimum. This chart will help an investor analyze the attractiveness of regional indices with respect to the risks, returns and market capitalization. FALCOM RESEARCH GCC Stock Markets Review Q2 2009 11
VALUATION VALUATION RATIOS 2.2 2 1.8 1.6 P/B 1.4 Abu Dhabi 1.2 Qatar (DSM) Bahrain Valuation Ratios Oman (MSM 30) Saudi Arabia (TASI) Kuwait 1 Dubai 0.8 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 P/E (Source: Zawya, Bahrain Stock Exchange, Tadawul) Chart Description X axis is the P/E ratio for the indices as on 30 th June 2009. Y axis is the P/B ratio for the indices as on 30 th June 2009. Size of the bubble represents the dividend yield of the indices as on 30 th of June 2009. Conclusions Abu Dhabi Securities Market Index had the lowest P/E ratio and Kuwait All Share Index had the highest P/E ratio on 30 th June 2009. Dubai Financial Market Index had the lowest P/B and Doha Securities Market Index had highest P/B ratio on 30 th June 2009. Doha Securities Market Index had the highest dividend yield and Kuwait All Share Index had the lowest dividend yield on 30 th June 2009. This chart will help an investor analyze the attractiveness of regional indices with respect to the valuation ratios. FALCOM RESEARCH GCC Stock Markets Review Q2 2009 12
GLOSSARY GLOSSARY P/E Price to Earnings Ratio. For TASI and sectors, it has been sourced from Tadawul and does not include the loss making companies. For all other indices, it is sourced from Zawya. P/B Price to book value ratio. For TASI, the value is sourced from FALCOM Research and for all other indices; it has been sourced from Zawya. Close Closing Price on last trading day of the quarter. % Floated - % of Total Market Capitalization which is floated. NPM Net Profit Margin. Return correlation with main index Correlation of daily sector returns with the daily returns of the respective regional index for the quarter. Standard deviation of daily returns Standard deviation of daily returns expressed as a fraction. Coefficient of variation Ratio of standard deviation of daily returns and mean of daily returns for the quarter. Bahrain Bahrain All Share Index is used for the analysis Kuwait Kuwait All Share Index is used for the analysis Oman MSM 30 index is used for the analysis Qatar DSM 20 index is used for the analysis Saudi Arabia Tadawul All Share Index is used for the analysis Dubai Dubai Financial Market General Index is used for the analysis Abu Dhabi Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange General Index is used for the analysis FALCOM RESEARCH GCC Stock Markets Review Q2 2009 13
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