Global Index Briefing: World Chemicals Industry MSCI November 7, 218 Dr. Ed Yardeni 16-972-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-497-36 jabbott@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents World Chemicals Industry MSCI Stock Price Index 1 Earnings 2 Revenues & Margins 3 Valuation 4 Metrics By Selected Countries & Regions -7 November 7, 218 / Global Index Briefing: World Chemicals Industry MSCI www.
Stock Price Index 42 37 Figure 1. WORLD CHEMICALS INDUSTRY MSCI INDEX (ratio scale) 42 37 32 11/7 32 27 27 22 22 17 17 12 12 7 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 19 2 -day moving average. Source: MSCI. 7 4 Figure 2. WORLD CHEMICALS INDUSTRY MSCI, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION 4 4 3 World Chemicals Industry MSCI Index 11/7/18 Blue Angels Implied Price Index* 11/1/18 x16 4 3 x12 x8 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 21 216 217 218 219 22 * Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es. Monthly through December, weekly thereafter. Source: MSCI and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 1 / November 7, 218 / Global Index Briefing: World Chemicals Industry MSCI www.
Earnings 29 24 Figure 3. WORLD CHEMICALS INDUSTRY MSCI EARNINGS PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) 19 2 29 24 19 18 19 14 14 9 9 Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates Forward earnings* 4 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 19 2 4 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December, then weekly. 2 Figure 4. WORLD CHEMICALS INDUSTRY MSCI INDEX NET EARNINGS REVISIONS* 2 1 1 Oct -1-1 -2-2 -3-4 NERI Aug.61 Sep 4.1 Oct 1.12 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 19 2-3 -4 * Three-month moving average of the number of forward earnings estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of forward earnings estimates. Page 2 / November 7, 218 / Global Index Briefing: World Chemicals Industry MSCI www.
3 Figure. Revenues & Margins WORLD CHEMICALS INDUSTRY MSCI REVENUES PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) 3 19 2 18 Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates Forward revenues* 4 6 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 21 216 217 218 219 22 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December, then weekly. 11 Figure 6. WORLD CHEMICALS INDUSTRY MSCI PROFIT MARGIN (using analysts average earnings and revenues forecasts) 2 11 1 1 19 9 18 9 8 8 7 6 Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates Forward profit margin* (1.3) 7 6 4 6 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 21 216 217 218 219 22 * Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December, weekly thereafter. Page 3 / November 7, 218 / Global Index Briefing: World Chemicals Industry MSCI www.
2 Figure 7. Valuation WORLD CHEMICALS INDUSTRY MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* 2 2 Forward P/E (13.1) 2 1 1 1 1 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 19 2 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. 1.3 Figure 8. WORLD CHEMICAL INDUSTRY MSCI RELATIVE VALUATION* 1.3 1.2 1.1 Relative P/E (.96) 1.2 1.1 1..9 1..9.8.8.7.7.6 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 19 2.6 * Forward P/E of index relative to All Country World MSCI forward P/E. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. Page 4 / November 7, 218 / Global Index Briefing: World Chemicals Industry MSCI www.
3 Figure 9. Metrics By Selected Countries & Regions MSCI INDUSTRIES PRICE INDEX* SELECTED COUNTRIES & REGIONS (weekly, indexed to at 12-31-8) Chemicals Emerging Markets (136.) EMU (147.4) Japan (119.8) United Kingdom (212.3) United States (213.1) 3-9 21 211 212 213 214 21 216 217 218 219 22 - * All MSCI regions in US$ except EMU in euros. All MSCI countries in local currency except Peru and Russia in US$. Figure 1. MSCI INDUSTRIES FORWARD EARNINGS* SELECTED COUNTRIES & REGIONS (weekly, indexed to at 1-16-6) Chemicals Emerging Markets (9.3) EMU (118.9) Japan (92.) United Kingdom (239.2) United States (131.7) - - - 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 19 2 - * Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December, weekly thereafter. Page / November 7, 218 / Global Index Briefing: World Chemicals Industry MSCI www.
4 4 3 Figure 11. Metrics By Selected Countries & Regions MSCI INDUSTRIES FORWARD REVENUES* SELECTED COUNTRIES & REGIONS (weekly, indexed to at 1-16-6) Chemicals Emerging Markets (62.3) EMU (64.4) Japan (26.1) United Kingdom (7.) United States (62.9) 4 4 3-6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 19 2 - * Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December, weekly thereafter. 16 12 Figure 12. MSCI INDUSTRIES FORWARD PROFIT MARGIN* SELECTED COUNTRIES & REGIONS (percent) Chemicals Emerging Markets (9.) EMU (9.2) Japan (7.6) United Kingdom (12.8) United States (13.3) 16 12 8 8 4 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 19 2 * Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December, weekly thereafter. Page 6 / November 7, 218 / Global Index Briefing: World Chemicals Industry MSCI www.
3 Figure 13. Metrics By Selected Countries & Regions MSCI INDUSTRIES FORWARD P/E* SELECTED COUNTRIES & REGIONS 3 2 P/E capped at 2 due to extreme values. Chemicals Emerging Markets (1.) EMU (12.9) Japan (9.7) United Kingdom (16.1) United States (14.1) 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 19 2 * Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December, weekly thereafter. Page 7 / November 7, 218 / Global Index Briefing: World Chemicals Industry MSCI www.
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