// Delta Associates The U.S. and Washington Area Economic Performance and Outlook Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D. Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University June, 8 Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Five Recessions Change in GDP 8 7 8 9 Quarters After Trough Sources: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, 97-Q 98-Q 99-Q -Q 9-Q GMU Center for Regional Analysis
// U.S. Leading Index.... -. -. -. -. -. 7 8 9 U.S. Coincident Index - - - -8 - - 7 8 9 GMU Center for Regional Analysis
// ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices Mfg N-Mfg (s) Annual Change in Payroll Jobs US Month over the Year, Not Seasonally Adjusted May = +.8 M - - - -8 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis
// s US Job Change Month-to-Month, Seasonally Adjusted 7 May = 9 - - - -7-9 7 8 9 Source: BLS U.S. Job Change by Sector May May Ranked by Size in Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Prof. & Bus. Svcs Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Manufacturing Financial Wlse Trade Construction Other Services Transp. & Util. Federal Govt. Information - (s) Total =,78 - - 8 7 97 98 7 9 8 7 - - - Source: BLS (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis
// Ranked by Size in Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Prof. & Bus. Svcs Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Manufacturing Financial Wlse Trade Construction Other Services Transp. & Util. Federal Govt. Information U.S. Job Change by Sector May -8 (s) Total = 9-8 -9 - - - - - Source: BLS (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis (s) 7 Initial Claims for Unemployment -Week Moving Average 7. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics GMU Center for Regional Analysis
8 // U.S. Unemployment Rate 9 8 7 May = 8. GI FCST 8. 7.8 7... 7.9 Source: BLS (Seasonally Adjusted), Global Insight (forecasts) $/barrel. Oil Prices $ per barrel Forecast > > > > > > >. 8..... Source: Global Insight GMU Center for Regional Analysis
// Consumer Confidence 8 Expectations Current Situation Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis - Consumer Prices - 7 7 8 9 Forecast > > > > > 7 Source: BLS, Global Insight GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7
// Interest Rates - 7 8 Forecast > > > > 7 Fed -Yr 7 8 9 7 Source: Global Insight U.S. New and Existing Home Sales (s) 7 Existing (Left Axis) New (Right Axis) (s) 9 8 7 Source: NAHB (New) and NAR (Existing) GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8
// - - -.7 Growth in Total Consumption Outlays....7.8.9. -. -.9 Forecast > > > > >........ Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis U.S. Economic Performance - - GDP Residential Fixed Non-Res: Structures State & Local Federal Bus. Inv. - Eq& Sfwr - Source: BEA, Global Insight GMU Center for Regional Analysis 9
// - - - -8 - U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: 7 Forecast > > > > > > 7-8- 9- - - - - - Source: BEA, Global Insight The Washington Economy GMU Center for Regional Analysis
// Washington MSA Leading Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change.... -. -. -Month Moving Average -. Washington MSA Coincident Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change... -. -. -Month Moving Average -. GMU Center for Regional Analysis
// s Annual Job Change MOTYC Washington MSA - - 99 99 99 99 99 99 997 998 999 7 8 9 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8 s Annual Job Change MOTYC District of Columbia - - 99 99 99 99 99 99 997 998 999 7 8 9 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis
// 8 s Annual Job Change MOTYC Suburban Maryland - - 99 99 99 99 99 99 997 998 999 7 8 9 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8 s Annual Job Change MOTYC Northern Virginia - - 99 99 99 99 99 99 997 998 999 7 8 9 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis
// (s) Largest Job Markets Job Change: 8 Washington +, - Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis s Annual Data 8 - - - -8 Annual Job Change Washington MSA Dec Aug Jun Dec Aug Jun Dec Aug Jun 8 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Month over Year 9 GMU Center for Regional Analysis
// Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Job Change by Sector Washington MSA - - - - - - (s) Total =, - - 8 9 s Annual Data - - - - Professional & Business Services Washington MSA Annual Month over Year 8 9 Source: BLS March Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Tot = 88,7 GMU Center for Regional Analysis
// s Annual Data - - - - Federal Government Washington MSA Annual Month over Year 8 9 Source: BLS March Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Tot = 8, s Annual Data - - - - Annual Job Change District of Columbia Dec Aug Jun Dec Aug Jun Dec Aug Jun 8 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Month over Year 9 GMU Center for Regional Analysis
// Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Job Change by Sector District of Columbia - (s) Total,9 - - s Annual Data - - - - Annual Job Change Suburban Maryland Dec Aug Jun Dec Aug Jun Dec Aug Jun 8 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Month over Year 9 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7
// Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Job Change by Sector Suburban Maryland - (s) Total, - - - - s Annual Data - - - - Annual Job Change Northern Virginia Dec Aug Jun Dec Aug Jun Dec Aug Jun 8 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Month over Year 9 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8
// Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Job Change by Sector Northern Virginia - (s) Total 7,7 - - 7 Unemployment Rate 8 8. DC 8. U.S.. SMD. MSA. - NVA Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted GMU Center for Regional Analysis 9
// 8. Largest Job Markets Ranked by Unemployment Rate il US 8. Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted Housing Market Trends GMU Center for Regional Analysis
// 8 - - - Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes Month-Over-the-Year-Change, MSA = -. Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Existing Home Sales Washington MSA Through il 8 -Month Moving Average 9 8 7 999 GMU Center for Regional Analysis
// Total Active Listings Per Sale il Each Year..... LDN PW ARL PG DC MONT FFX. Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Median House Sales Price Washington MSA $.8K Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis
// Average Sales Price Percent Change Washington MSA All Housing Types Annual Change - - - - - - - - -8-7 -9 - - Annual Change by Month 9 9 8 9 7 - - - -7 Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis - - Average Sales Price Percent Change District of Columbia All Housing Types Annual Change 7 7 - - -7 - - - - - -7- -7-7 - - -7-8 Annual Change by Month 9 8 7 8 9 9 7 8 8 - - -9-8 8-8 Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis
// Average Sales Price Percent Change Suburban Maryland All Housing Types Annual Change - - - - 9-8 - -8 - - -- -8 - - - Annual Change by Month 9 - -9-8 - -8 -- - - - - -9 - - - - - - - - - -7 - - Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Average Sales Price Percent Change Northern Virginia All Housing Types Annual Change - - - - - - -9 - - -8-8 -8 - - 9 Annual Change by Month 9 9 7 9 9 7 - - 8 Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis
// - - - Annual Average Sales Price Percent Change Metro Area Single Family Detached - - - -- - -8 - - - -7 Annual Change by Month 9 8 9 9 - - -7 - - 7 Mar May Sep Nov Mar May y Sep Nov Mar May Sep Nov Mar Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis : DC = +8., SM = +.9, NV = +. - Average Sales Price Percent Change Metro Area Single Family Attached Annual - - - Annual Change by Month 9 9 7 9 8 7 - - 8 7 - - - 7 - -8 - - -- Mar May Sep Nov Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Mar May y Sep Nov Mar May Sep Nov Mar : DC = +., SM = +.7, NV = +. GMU Center for Regional Analysis
// Average Sales Price Percent Change Metro Area Condos Annual Change Annual Change by Month 9 - - - - 7-8 -8-9 - Mar - - --- May - -8 Sep Nov Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis - Mar May y - Sep Nov -7-9 - - - Mar May - - - - - Sep Nov : DC = +., SM = +., NV = +8. - 8 Mar Washington MSA Building Permits, -Month Mvg Avg Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis
// 7 - - Economic Outlook (GRP) Washington Area and Sub-state Portions (Annual Change) NV MSA SM DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis Employment Change by Sub-state Region (s) 8 9 D.C.. -. 9...8. Sub. MD -. -. -.9.. 8. 9. 9. No. VA. -. 8.7 7. 8.... REGION.9 -....... Average Annual Change 99- =, Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, 9- based on Benchmark data from BLS, Revised // NOTE: Total is the sum of subregions and does not agree with the Mar, published MSA total. GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7
// 8 GDP/GRP - Washington U.S. - - 7 8 9 Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University Center for Regional Analysis cra.gmu.edu GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8