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Transcription:

Danske Bank Oxford Economics Quarterly Sectoral Forecasts Quarter 4 2013

Forecast Summary There has been a particularly favourable run of data over the past few months with rising employment levels, increasing house prices, falling unemployment and rising confidence levels; all of which have led us to upgrade our short-term forecasts. We now expect Northern Ireland s GVA to grow by 0.9% in 2013 and 2.4% in 2014, up from 0.5% and 1.7% respectively in August, but downside risks remain. The following factors should help to ensure that the recovery will become firmly entrenched: Consumer conditions are expected to remain favourable underpinned by real income, as earnings and employment pick up and inflation slows. The Danske Bank Consumer Confidence Survey reported that consumer confidence in Northern Ireland rose to its highest level in four years as the labour market continues to improve. An improving export outlook - business surveys reported an improvement in export demand through the summer, as the recovery in advanced economies gained momentum and we expect this to continue. Corporate confidence has strengthened, supporting investment in Q3. Business investment in 2013 remained at very low levels as many firms continued to pay down debt or accumulate cash on their balance sheets. However, the latest Intertrade Ireland Business Monitor Survey reports that the percentage of local companies in mode has doubled from the last quarter. As corporate confidence improves, firms should begin to spend their accumulated cash surpluses. A favourable macro economic climate, inflationary problems have receded and the labour market has also started to improve. Furthermore, the recovery will also be supported with low interest rates with the Bank of England s forward guidance suggesting that the base rate will to stay at 0.5% for at least another year and a half. GVA rates - NI Q on Q Y on Y Q1 2012 0.0-0.1 Q2 2012-0.2-0.6 Q3 2012 0.2-0.2 Q4 2012 0.7 0.7 Q1 2013-0.5 0.2 Q2 2013 0.8 1.2 Q3 2013 0.2 1.1 Q4 2013 0.6 1.1 Q1 2014 0.4 2.1 Q2 2014 0.9 2.1 Q3 2014 0.7 2.6 Q4 2014 0.7 2.7 GVA rates - UK Q on Q Y on Y Q1 2012 0.0 1.1 Q2 2012-0.4 0.3 Q3 2012 0.7 0.3 Q4 2012-0.2 0.1 Q1 2013 0.4 0.5 Q2 2013 0.6 1.4 Q3 2013 0.9 1.7 Q4 2013 0.9 2.8 Q1 2014 0.6 3.0 Q2 2014 0.6 3.0 Q3 2014 0.7 2.9 Q4 2014 0.7 2.7 Annual Annual Source: Oxford Economics Note: Year on year is calculated using the from say Q1 2010 to Q1 2011 % 4.0 2.0 0.0-2.0-4.0-6.0-8.0 Q1 2008 Q3 2008 Q1 2009 NI UK Q3 2009 Q1 2010 Q3 2010 GVA (%) Q1 2011 Q3 2011 Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q1 2013 Q3 2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2014 Q1 2015-0.1 0.9 2.4 0.4 1.6 2.9 Q3 2015

Housing there has been a solid increase in local housing market activity - as both house prices and transactions have begun to recover. This has partially been driven by the improvement in household finances and rising confidence levels; but the housing recovery is also partially policy induced i.e the Funding for Lending Scheme and the Help to Buy scheme have had an impact. As a result there has also been within the construction sector, with the DSD reporting that new housing completions were up 52% on a year earlier in Q2. Danske s latest house price forecasts suggest that local house prices look set to rise by 4.9% next year (although potential buyers should be warned to ensure they can still afford repayments when interest rates start to rise probably from mid-2015 onwards) Employment/GVA Total LABOUR MARKET Private services to lead As the NI recovery gathers pace, we anticipate recruitment will also pick up and employment to average 0.5% over 2014. In terms of job creation the biggest contributions are expected to come from professional and administrative services, and also construction. Professional services are expected to create 900 jobs over the year ahead. This sector includes legal and accounting, consultancy, engineering activities, advertising etc. Growth is expected to be underpinned by improving exports as global demand rises and economic conditions recover. Administrative services sector is also expected to increase by 900 jobs over the year ahead driven by a greater use of agency workers and outsourcing of activities. The sector by its nature is strongly linked to the overall performance of the economy, as the largest contributor to the sector is employment activities (agency workers). Key drivers of the construction outlook are improvements in the local housing market, accompanied with a strengthening of corporate confidence. Recent ONS data has revealed that the Northern Ireland property market has finally turned a corner and the CBRE have noted renewed interest and activity on the commercial property side. A recovery in the housing market should help to support the construction sector. The Help to buy scheme will also provide a boost to this sector in the short term but government stimulus of the housing market is unlikely to be maintained in the medium term. Recent announcements from the Minister of Finance around the building of a new children s hospital and funding for strategic roads improvements will all lend support to the construction sector s going forward. Employment (000's) 860 850 840 830 820 810 800 790 780 Employment Total GVA Total 6 4 2 0-2 -4 GVA (% year on year ) 770 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-6 Drag of Growth: The public services sector (public admin, education and health) is expected to continue to act as a drag on, with loss

of 700 jobs estimated over the next 12 months. The outlook reflects the on-going government austerity measures. However, the 136 million increase in the NI Executive s Budget over the next two years (stemming from the Autumn Statement and the outworkings of the Barnett Formula) should help to protect local health and education services to some extent. Unemployment: The skills set of the people who lost their jobs may not be required by the sectors which are expected to lead the recovery, leaving many people out of work for an indefinite period. Our estimates suggest that the level of unemployment will remain above historical lows, averaging around 57,000 over the medium term (a similar level to that experienced in the mid 1990 s). External Risks: A number of external risks also remain which have the potential to damage the recovery. Any further problems in the Eurozone would pose a risk for the UK s recovery given its significant trade and financial linkages with the Europe. Another worrying downside risk is of course the tapering of Quantitative Easing in the United States. The unwinding of unconventional stimulus could result in some turmoil for markets. Overall the risks remain on the downside, and thus we attach a 50% probability to the forecast. SUMMARY OF GVA % GROWTH FOR NI SECTORS IN 2014 (yoy) RISKS there is still a degree of uncertainty Business Investment: Overall levels of business investment remained low during 2013 (falling by 5.5 percent across the UK). The latest forecasts assume that improved business confidence will drive business expenditure on investments up by at least 5 per cent in 2014. Without greater momentum on the supply side of the economy there is a risk that the recovery will be consumers-led. A much broader re-balancing of the economy is required if the recovery is to be sustained. Consumers: Further out the consumer sector is the main source of uncertainty. More aggressive deleveraging is a possibility given that a significant minority of households would struggle to service current debt levels at more normal interest rates. Strong Sterling: As the economy recovers the pound has appreciated (strengthening by 3 percent in the three months to November. While a stronger pound helps keep inflation down, it can also create barriers for export.

Annex Tables Table 1: GVA ( m2010) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Agriculture, forestry and fishing 379 334 347 359 319 337 373 396 336 366 380 393 374 378 381 384 393 388 390 392 Mining and quarrying 87 81 80 78 77 76 76 77 77 77 78 78 77 78 78 78 77 78 78 78 Manufacturing 4341 4383 4400 4401 4391 4457 4467 4477 4562 4617 4659 4701 4714 4752 4805 4859 4850 4902 4960 5017 Electricity, gas, & steam 287 309 315 323 320 326 329 331 330 331 333 336 337 339 341 343 345 347 349 351 Water supply; sewerage, waste management 366 361 361 362 355 358 361 365 366 370 373 376 374 377 381 384 382 385 389 393 Construction 1700 1650 1603 1556 1622 1634 1652 1670 1675 1701 1728 1756 1741 1778 1804 1829 1794 1818 1851 1884 Wholesale and retail trade 3773 3699 3758 3917 3891 3941 3966 4076 3967 4006 4108 4234 4087 4130 4182 4256 4223 4252 4270 4332 Transportation and storage 962 937 941 956 950 960 981 991 994 1007 1013 1020 1034 1040 1044 1047 1055 1069 1080 1091 Accommodation and food service activities 783 791 798 816 814 828 829 843 849 856 834 842 853 858 866 878 874 880 887 900 Information and communication 1060 1059 1074 1093 1049 1062 1072 1082 1079 1089 1099 1120 1120 1141 1165 1190 1183 1208 1235 1262 Financial and insurance activities 1340 1336 1345 1346 1329 1289 1298 1307 1302 1316 1336 1356 1341 1361 1378 1396 1387 1404 1425 1446 Real estate activities 2974 2990 2972 2924 2819 2777 2764 2751 2807 2823 2842 2862 2874 2894 2922 2949 2968 2995 3023 3052 Professional, scientific and technical activities 1119 1138 1166 1184 1161 1190 1200 1211 1221 1225 1234 1243 1249 1266 1286 1307 1304 1325 1349 1373 Administrative and support service activities 1046 1075 1087 1092 1069 1084 1107 1124 1131 1138 1150 1162 1175 1186 1194 1201 1212 1232 1253 1274 Public administration and defence 3115 3108 3092 3096 3083 3081 3050 3050 3072 3056 3062 3069 3063 3060 3067 3073 3067 3078 3081 3085 Education 2422 2424 2338 2365 2392 2471 2402 2437 2456 2482 2426 2408 2429 2450 2434 2504 2450 2484 2449 2500 Human health and social work activities 3150 3153 3187 3182 3256 3253 3238 3159 3274 3300 3289 3179 3257 3278 3304 3330 3292 3321 3344 3366 Arts, entertainment and recreation 453 455 471 471 473 470 485 487 479 476 484 492 487 495 499 504 500 504 513 522 Other service activities 446 465 481 492 489 499 501 503 496 498 506 514 507 515 521 527 520 527 535 543 Total 29802 29748 29817 30013 29859 30091 30153 30337 30472 30733 30935 31141 31093 31376 31651 32039 31875 32197 32461 32861 Year on Year Growth (%) Agriculture, forestry and fishing 27.9-6.8-24.2-12.9-15.9 0.8 7.3 10.2 5.3 8.6 1.8-0.7 11.3 3.3 0.4-2.3 5.0 2.7 2.4 2.1 Mining and quarrying -18.9-19.6-19.4-16.5-11.7-6.9-4.3-2.2 0.2 2.3 2.1 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1-0.2-0.5 Manufacturing -1.0-0.6-0.4-1.5 1.1 1.7 1.5 1.7 3.9 3.6 4.3 5.0 3.3 2.9 3.1 3.4 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.3 Electricity, gas, & steam 25.5 39.2 35.4 28.8 11.5 5.6 4.4 2.7 3.1 1.7 1.5 1.3 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 Water supply; sewerage, waste management -7.2-9.3-6.6-3.5-3.0-1.0 0.1 0.7 3.0 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 Construction -13.2-15.2-13.6-13.5-4.6-1.0 3.1 7.3 3.2 4.1 4.6 5.1 4.0 4.6 4.4 4.2 3.0 2.3 2.6 3.0 Wholesale and retail trade -1.3-3.2-0.5 2.5 3.1 6.5 5.5 4.1 1.9 1.6 3.6 3.9 3.0 3.1 1.8 0.5 3.3 2.9 2.1 1.8 Transportation and storage -7.3-8.5-4.5-1.8-1.2 2.5 4.1 3.7 4.6 4.8 3.3 2.9 4.0 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.1 2.8 3.5 4.2 Accommodation and food service activities -1.4-2.4-1.1 1.8 4.1 4.6 3.8 3.2 4.3 3.5 0.7 0.0 0.4 0.3 3.8 4.2 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 Information and communication 2.4 0.9-1.4 2.4-1.0 0.3-0.2-1.1 2.9 2.5 2.5 3.6 3.8 4.7 6.0 6.2 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.1 Financial and insurance activities 1.8 2.2 2.0 4.6-0.9-3.5-3.5-2.9-2.0 2.1 2.9 3.8 3.0 3.4 3.2 2.9 3.4 3.2 3.4 3.6 Real estate activities 1.8 3.0 2.7 0.7-5.2-7.1-7.0-5.9-0.4 1.6 2.8 4.0 2.4 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.5 Professional, scientific and technical activities -0.4-0.6 3.0 3.1 3.8 4.5 2.9 2.3 5.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.2 3.3 4.3 5.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0 Administrative and support service activities 5.3 8.0 7.6 6.0 2.2 0.8 1.8 2.9 5.8 5.1 3.9 3.4 4.0 4.2 3.8 3.3 3.1 3.8 5.0 6.1 Public administration and defence 0.5 1.4 0.8 0.8-1.0-0.9-1.4-1.5-0.4-0.8 0.4 0.6-0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.4 Education 1.6 0.5-1.0 0.3-1.2 1.9 2.7 3.1 2.6 0.5 1.0-1.2-1.1-1.3 0.3 4.0 0.8 1.4 0.6-0.1 Human health and social work activities 2.8 2.8 2.8 4.6 3.4 3.2 1.6-0.7 0.6 1.4 1.6 0.6-0.5-0.7 0.5 4.7 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 Arts, entertainment and recreation 14.5 13.3 15.2 8.4 4.3 3.3 3.1 3.4 1.3 1.3-0.3 1.0 1.6 4.0 3.2 2.5 2.7 1.9 2.8 3.7 Other service activities -8.7-6.1-0.6 4.4 9.6 7.3 4.1 2.3 1.5-0.3 1.0 2.2 2.1 3.4 3.0 2.5 2.7 2.3 2.6 2.9 Total -0.1-0.6-0.2 0.7 0.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 2.1 2.1 2.6 2.7 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.9 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 Copyright Dankse Bank / Oxford Economics. 2013. All rights reserved. The contents of this publication, ether in whole or in part, may not be reproduced, stored or transmitted without the prior written permission from Dankse Bank / Oxford Economics

Table 2: Employment (000's) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Agriculture, forestry and fishing 41.5 39.9 40.2 40.3 37.1 37.0 37.5 38.0 37.3 38.3 38.8 39.2 38.8 38.6 38.4 38.2 38.6 37.8 37.5 37.2 Mining and quarrying 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 Manufacturing 85.0 86.3 86.6 86.4 84.4 86.7 86.5 86.3 86.4 86.2 86.3 86.3 86.1 86.0 85.9 85.9 85.8 85.7 85.6 85.6 Electricity, gas, & steam 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 Water supply; sewerage, waste management 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 Construction 50.1 49.6 49.3 47.7 49.7 49.3 49.4 49.4 50.2 50.6 50.5 50.4 50.8 51.1 51.3 51.4 51.5 51.7 51.9 52.0 Wholesale and retail trade 135.2 134.8 135.1 141.8 138.3 138.1 136.9 141.3 137.0 137.1 138.1 140.4 137.8 137.7 138.3 140.3 139.1 138.3 137.9 140.2 Transportation and storage 27.4 27.3 27.4 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.7 Accommodation and food service activities 45.2 46.3 46.7 47.3 45.7 46.7 46.7 47.2 46.4 46.2 46.1 46.4 46.6 46.7 46.7 47.1 46.9 46.7 46.7 47.1 Information and communication 19.0 18.8 19.2 19.7 19.4 19.7 19.8 19.9 20.0 20.1 20.2 20.4 20.5 20.6 20.7 20.9 21.0 21.1 21.2 21.4 Financial and insurance activities 20.6 20.3 20.4 20.3 20.0 19.9 19.8 19.8 19.8 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 Real estate activities 7.3 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.9 Professional, scientific and technical activities 29.1 29.3 30.1 30.3 30.4 31.2 31.5 31.8 32.1 32.1 32.3 32.6 32.7 32.8 33.0 33.1 33.4 33.5 33.7 33.8 Administrative and support service activities 42.8 44.0 45.3 46.1 45.8 46.7 47.3 47.4 47.6 47.9 48.2 48.5 48.6 48.8 49.1 49.3 49.7 50.0 50.3 50.6 Public administration and defence 60.1 59.4 59.1 59.4 59.7 59.9 59.8 59.6 59.1 59.5 59.3 59.0 58.2 57.6 57.2 56.9 56.8 56.6 56.3 55.9 Education 73.1 72.4 69.8 71.9 72.7 72.9 70.5 72.3 72.7 73.1 71.1 72.5 72.6 72.6 70.6 72.0 72.0 72.0 70.2 71.9 Human health and social work activities 124.9 124.7 126.1 128.6 128.6 128.5 128.3 128.0 127.6 127.7 127.5 127.3 127.0 126.8 126.7 126.6 126.7 126.7 126.7 126.7 Arts, entertainment and recreation 18.4 17.7 18.5 18.2 18.1 18.3 18.3 18.2 18.3 18.3 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.6 18.7 18.7 18.9 19.0 19.1 19.2 Other service activities 17.8 17.7 18.0 17.9 18.4 18.4 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.6 18.6 18.7 18.7 18.8 18.9 19.0 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 Total 805.1 803.8 807.0 819.4 811.3 816.4 813.9 821.0 816.3 819.1 818.8 823.8 820.9 820.9 819.7 823.8 824.0 823.2 821.3 826.0 Year on Year Growth (%) Agriculture, forestry and fishing 12.3 5.1-17.6-12.5-10.7-7.1-6.6-5.9 0.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 4.1 0.6-1.1-2.7-0.7-2.0-2.3-2.6 Mining and quarrying 4.3 6.3-1.1-1.7-3.6-1.8-1.6-2.6 0.7-0.4-0.1 0.2-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.8-0.8-0.8-0.9-1.0 Manufacturing 0.9 2.4 2.9 0.4-0.6 0.5-0.1 0.0 2.3-0.6-0.3-0.1-0.3-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.3-0.4 Electricity, gas, & steam -3.6-2.8 12.4 15.0 12.9 10.9 7.9 2.3 3.3-1.1-1.9-2.8-1.7-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.6 Water supply; sewerage, waste management -4.4-5.3-2.5 1.5-2.1-2.7-1.7-2.5 0.2-1.2-0.9-0.6-0.3-0.1-0.1 0.0-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2 Construction -6.4-7.0-6.1-6.1-0.9-0.6 0.1 3.6 1.0 2.6 2.3 2.1 1.2 1.0 1.5 2.0 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.1 Wholesale and retail trade -2.4-1.9-0.9 0.5 2.3 2.5 1.4-0.4-0.9-0.7 0.8-0.6 0.6 0.5 0.2-0.1 0.9 0.4-0.3-0.1 Transportation and storage -5.1-4.9-0.8 1.0 1.6 1.7 1.6-0.2 1.1 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 Accommodation and food service activities -0.9 1.3 2.2 4.1 1.1 0.8 0.1-0.2 1.5-1.1-1.4-1.8 0.5 1.1 1.3 1.5 0.5 0.0-0.1-0.1 Information and communication 1.0-0.7-4.5 3.2 1.9 5.0 3.2 0.6 3.4 1.9 2.2 2.6 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 Financial and insurance activities -4.1-5.0-5.5-0.8-2.7-2.0-3.0-2.7-1.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.5-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1 Real estate activities 6.4 7.5 0.6 0.3-1.1-0.9-0.6 0.3 1.9-0.4 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.3 2.6 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.9 3.0 Professional, scientific and technical activities -4.3-3.0 3.2 3.8 4.6 6.3 4.7 4.8 5.4 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.0 2.2 1.9 1.6 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.1 Administrative and support service activities -6.0-2.4 3.1 7.0 7.2 6.2 4.5 2.8 3.8 2.6 1.9 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.5 Public administration and defence -3.6-2.5-2.5-1.3-0.7 0.9 1.2 0.3-1.0-0.6-0.8-1.0-1.7-3.2-3.4-3.6-2.3-1.7-1.7-1.7 Education 0.2-0.7-1.8-1.6-0.5 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3-0.2-0.7-0.7-0.7-0.8-0.8-0.5-0.1 Human health and social work activities -1.5-1.5-1.3 3.0 3.0 3.0 1.7-0.4-0.8-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.5-0.7-0.7-0.6-0.3-0.1 0.0 0.1 Arts, entertainment and recreation 6.1 0.9 7.7-0.5-1.5 3.3-1.2 0.2 0.8 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.5 Other service activities -5.7-5.7-2.6-0.8 3.9 4.4 2.8 3.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 Total -1.5-1.3-1.6 0.1 0.8 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 Copyright Dankse Bank / Oxford Economics. 2013. All rights reserved. The contents of this publication, ether in whole or in part, may not be reproduced, stored or transmitted without the prior written permission from Dankse Bank / Oxford Economics

Table 3: Other variables 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Unemployment 62.5 65.8 63.3 62.5 64.8 62.1 61.4 60.4 59.4 58.1 58.0 57.9 57.8 57.8 57.6 57.4 57.2 57.0 56.7 56.5 Year on Year Growth (%) Unemployment 0.2 2.2-5.4-2.9 3.8-5.6-3.0-3.4-8.4-6.4-5.4-4.0-2.6-0.6-0.8-1.0-1.2-1.3-1.5-1.6 Copyright Dankse Bank / Oxford Economics. 2013. All rights reserved. The contents of this publication, ether in whole or in part, may not be reproduced, stored or transmitted without the prior written permission from Dankse Bank / Oxford Economics

Danske Bank is a trading name of Northern Bank Limited and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Registered in Northern Ireland R568 Registered Office: Donegall Square West, Belfast, BT1 6JS Northern Bank Limited is a member of the Danske Bank Group. www.danskebank.co.uk This is the opinion of Danske Bank, on occasion based upon research conducted at the time and obtained from sources believed to be reliable. This may be subject to change without notice and is not a personal recommendation. 2013.12

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