Cross-country experiences Session 3 Reform strategies: the experience of emerging European economies and their effects on sustainability and equity Per Eckefeldt European Commission Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs IMF Fiscal Affairs and European Departments t conference: Designing i fiscally sustainable and equitable pension systems in emerging Europe in the post-crisis world Vienna, 18 March 2013 1
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Population projections: Old-age dependency ratios Old-age dependency ratio (65+ / 15-64) EU: 26% to 52% EU12: 21% to 62% IE UK EU12 PL NO DK BE LU SE FR NL FI CY EU15 AT EU27 EA17 CZ EEE MT ES GR IT LT PT SI HU DE BG SK RO LV 2010 2010-2030 2030-2060
Progress with pension reforms: public spending (change 2010-2060 2060 in percentage points) - 2009 and 2012 AR 0 016 0014 014 0 012 0 010 0 008 0 006 0 004 0 002 EU12: +1.2 pp. (2012) +2.6 pp. (2009) +2,3 p.p. (2009 AR) +1.5 p.p. (2012 AR) 0 000-0 002 LV PL EE IT DK PT FR SE EL BG EU U12 UK EU U27 EU U15 EA AT DE CZ HU FI LT NL ES RO IE NO SK MT BE SI CY LU -0 004 2009 AR 2012 AR
(%) of GDP) 14.0 12.0 Decomposition of the increase in public pension expenditure Significant progress in Eastern European countries to put public pension systems on a more sustainable footing 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 8.9 7.5 2.0 0.0-2.0-4.0-6.0 1.2 1.9 1.5-0.5-1.0-0.8-1.2-0.6-0.6-2.6-2.4-2.7-2.1-4.4-4.6 Dependency ratio Coverage ratio Employment effect Benefit ratio Interaction effect Total EU12 EA17 EU15
Change in the benefit ratio (average pension over average wage) 20 10 0-10 PL EE SK RO SE EL FR DE BG AT DK LU FI IT SI LT MT BE CZ CY -20-30 -40-50 Public pensions All pensions -60-70
Pension policy challenges/reform options in the EU The Commission set out its line in the 2012 Annual Growth Survey on pension-related issues, confirmed in the 2013 Annual Growth Survey: align the retirement age with increases in life expectancy (done already by IT, ES, EL, DK, NL and SK); restrict access to early retirement schemes and other early exit pathways; support longer working lives; equalise the pensionable age between men and women; and, support the development of complementary retirement savings to enhance retirement incomes. Long-term trend in pension policy towards mixed systems 'Bismarck' towards 'Beveridge' and vice versa Eastern European countries more prone to implement systemic reforms
Adapting policies (1): () the retirement age and life expectancy (men) 2010 2060 95 Statutory retirement age and life expectancy (in 2010 and 2060) - Men 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 LV SK SI BE BG EE CY LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO DE ES FR SE IE FI UK CZ EL IT DK
Adapting policies (2): () the retirement age and life expectancy (women) 2010 2060 95 Statutory retirement age and life expectancy (in 2010 and 2060) - Women 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 PL SI LV SK BG RO BE EE CY LT LU HU MT NL AT PT DE ES FR SE IE FI UK CZ EL IT DK
Recent move (1): higher Poland (2012 reform) retirement age in Retirement age raised: 67 for men by 2020 and for women by 2040 (as from 1 January 2013)
Recent move (2): Slovakia adapts the retirement age and the 2 nd pillar (2012 reform) 1 st pillar: retirement age linked to life expectancy as from 2017 2 nd pillar: Introduced in 2005 (diversion of pension contributions), but hesitant introduction 2 nd pillar: for people entering the labour market: 2005-08: compulsory: no possibility to opt out after entry (100% entry rate) 2008-2011: voluntary, possibility to enter up to 6 months (14% entry rate) 2012: compulsory: possibility to opt out within 2 years (95% entry rate) 2013: voluntary: possibility to enter until age of 35 (13.5% entry rate (assumed))
Policy challenges in the EU Mario Draghi, ECB "You know there was a time when Rudi Dornbusch used to say that the Europeans are so rich they can afford to pay everybody for not working. That's gone. WSJ, 27 February 2012 11
Government debt is very high in the EU, but attaining the budgetary targets (MTOs) would set it on a clear downward path to 60% of GDP (% of GDP) 100 Gross debt as % of GDP - European Union 95 90 85 80 75 Baseline scenario 70 65 60 Consolidation scenarios 55 50 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 No-policy change scenario Shock -1p.p. in the short-term/long-term t t interest t rate on maturing and new debt from 2015 Shock +1p.p. in the short-term/long-term interest rate on maturing and new debt from 2015 Consolidation scenario (0.5% per year on SB) in order to achieve MTO Consolidation scenario (1% per year on SB) in order to achieve MTO Constant average 1998-2007 interest (on new & maturing debt)/growth rates differential 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 12
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