Chart Collection for Morning Briefing ober 31, 1 Dr. Edward Yardeni 1-97-73 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana --1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Figure 1. STOCK PRICE: 3M (MMM) (ratio scale, weekly) 19 1 / 19 1 13 13 7 7 1999 1 3 7 9 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 1 19 Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. 7 3 3 Figure. US M-PMI & 3M STOCK PRICE ISM Manufacturing Composite Index 3M Weekly Stock Price (y/y % change) (capped at %) 1999 1 3 7 9 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 1 19 Source: Institute for Supply Management and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. / 3 - - -3 - - - Page 3 / ober 31, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
Figure 3. GLOBAL M-PMI & 3M STOCK PRICE 3 3 1 9 Global Manufacturing PMI Index - 3M Weekly Stock Price (y/y % change) / - 7 1 1 1 17 1 19 Source: JP Morgan/IHS Markit and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. -3 Figure. EUROZONE M- PMI & 3M STOCK PRICE Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Index 3M Weekly Stock Price (y/y % change) / 1 1 1 17 1 19 Source: JP Morgan/IHS Markit and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. 3 3 1 - - -1 - - Page / ober 31, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
Figure. CHINA: RETAIL SALES & CPI (yearly percent change) 1 Retail Sales (9.) CPI (.) Real Retail Sales* (.7) 1-199 1999 1 3 7 9 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 1 19 - * Yearly percent change in retail sales minus yearly percent change in CPI. Source: China National Bureau of Statistics. Figure. CHINA: REAL RETAIL SALES GROWTH* (1-month average of yearly percent change) 1 1 199 1999 1 3 7 9 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 1 19 * Yearly percent change in retail sales minus yearly percent change in CPI. Source: China National Bureau of Statistics. Page / ober 31, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
3 1 19 1 17 1 1 1 13 1 11 9 7 3 Figure 7. MISERY INDEX vs. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX Misery Index* Consumer Confidence Index 7 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 1 * Yearly percent change in consumer price index plus unemployment rate. Source: The Conference Board, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Bureau of Labor Statistics. 7 Figure. S&P FORWARD P/E RATIO & MISERY INDEX 7 3 1 Misery Index* (.) S&P Forward P/E** (1.) 3 1 19 19 17 1 17 1 13 13 11 11 9 9 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 7 * Unemployment rate plus yearly percent change in consumer price index. ** Average monthly S&P stock price index divided by S&P 1-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page / ober 31, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
1 Figure 9. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE & BEAR MARKETS IN STOCKS (percent) 1 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 Note: Shaded red areas denote S&P bear market declines of % or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 1 Figure. WAGES & PRICES (yearly percent change) 1 Average Hourly Earnings* Core PCED 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 * Production & nonsupervisory workers Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page 7 / ober 31, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
7 7 Figure 11. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY: JOBS AVAILABILITY (percent saying so) Jobs Plentiful* (.9) Jobs Hard To Get* (13.) 7 7 3 3 1 7 9 71 73 7 77 79 1 3 7 9 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 1 17 19 1 3 3 1 * Every other month from 197 through mid-1977, then monthly since July 1977. Seasonally adjusted. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: The Conference Board. 7 Figure 1. AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS & JOBS PLENTIFUL 1 Average Hourly Earnings* (yearly percent change) (.7) Consumer Confidence Survey: Jobs Plentiful** (.9) 3 7 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 * Production & nonsupervisory workers. ** Every other month from 197 through mid-1977, then monthly since July 1977. Seasonally adjusted. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: The Conference Board and Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page / ober 31, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
3 3 1 Figure 13. ECI WAGES & SALARIES vs JOBS PLENTIFUL (sa) ECI: Wages & Salaries Private Industry (yearly percent change) Jobs Plentiful* (percent saying so) 3 7 9 9 91 9 93 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 3 7 9 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 1 19 Q 9. 9... 7. 7....... 3. 3... 1. 1. * Every other month from 197 thru mid-1977, monthly data begins in July 1977. Seasonally adjusted. Source: The Conference Board and Bureau of Labor Statistics. 7 Figure 1. S&P FORWARD P/E & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX 3 S&P Forward P/E* (1.) Weekly Consumer Comfort Index** (.1) /1 / 1 3 9 9 97 9 99 1 3 7 9 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 1 19 * Average weekly price divided by -week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. ** Index plus. Source: Standard & Poor s, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Bloomberg. Page 9 / ober 31, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
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