Mortgage Performance Summary QUARTERLY UPDATE Housing Market and Mortgage Performance in North Carolina 2 nd Quarter, 2016 Joseph Mengedoth Michael Stanley
350 325 300 275 250 Index, 1995:Q1=100 Figure 1 FHFA House Price Index: North Carolina United States Asheville Charlotte-Gastonia Fayetteville Greensboro-High Point Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton Raleigh-Cary Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News Winston-Salem North Carolina Burlington Durham Goldsboro Greenville Jacksonville Rocky Mount Wilmington Index, 1995:Q1=100 350 325 300 275 250 225 225 200 200 175 175 150 150 125 125 100 100 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (2016:Q2)/Haver Analytics; Office of Management and Budget, 2013 (MSA definitions) Figure 2 Mortgage Distribution: North Carolina 2a: Mortgages Outstanding 2b: Inventory Subprime 5.9% FHA & VA 24.0% Subprime 28.6% FHA & VA 36.8% Prime 70.1% Prime 34.7% Source: Mortgage Bankers Association (2016:Q2)/Haver Analytics. ages may not sum to 100 due to rounding. 1
Figure 3 age of Owner-Occupied Loans in or REO 1 : North Carolina Notes: FHA and VA loans are included in the count of prime loans. Uncategorized zip codes have fewer than 100 total loans or no data available. Figure 4 age of Owner-Occupied Loans with 90+ Day Delinquency: North Carolina Notes: FHA and VA loans are included in the count of prime loans. Uncategorized zip codes have fewer than 100 total loans or no data available. 1 Real Estate Owned (REO) properties are in the possession of the lender due to foreclosure or forfeiture. 2
Figure 5 age of Owner-Occupied Prime Loans in or REO 2 : North Carolina Notes: FHA and VA loans are included in the count of prime loans. Uncategorized zip codes have fewer than 100 total loans or no data available. Figure 6 age of Owner-Occupied Prime Loans with 90+ Day Delinquency: North Carolina Notes: FHA and VA loans are included in the count of prime loans. Uncategorized zip codes have fewer than 100 total loans or no data available. 2 Real Estate Owned (REO) properties are in the possession of the lender due to foreclosure or forfeiture. 3
Figure 7 age of Owner-Occupied Subprime Loans in or REO: North Carolina Notes: FHA and VA loans are included in the count of prime loans. Uncategorized zip codes have fewer than 100 total loans or no data available. Figure 8 age of Owner-Occupied Subprime Loans in with 90+ Day Delinquency: North Carolina Notes: FHA and VA loans are included in the count of prime loans. Uncategorized zip codes have fewer than 100 total loans or no data available. 4
Figure 9 age of Owner-Occupied Mortgages with Subprime Loans: North Carolina Notes: FHA and VA loans are included in the count of prime loans. Uncategorized zip codes have fewer than 100 total loans or have no data available. Figure 10 Unemployment Rate: North Carolina Notes: Unemployment Rate in June 2016 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 5
Table 1 Rates by Mortgage Type: North Carolina North Carolina United States in National in Loan Type Rank Total 1.01 33 1.64 Prime Total 0.50 34 0.95 Prime Fixed-Rate 0.47 31 0.83 Prime Adjustable-Rate 0.86 39 1.95 Subprime Total 4.88 28 7.43 Subprime Fixed-Rate 4.89 27 6.67 Subprime Adjustable-Rate 4.87 34 9.52 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association (2016:Q2)/Haver Analytics Table 2 Mortgage Delinquency Rates: Fifth District 90 + National in National Days Past Due Rank Forclosure Rank District of Columbia 1.21 32 2.89 5 Maryland 1.91 7 1.96 15 North Carolina 1.45 24 1.01 33 South Carolina 1.45 24 1.62 22 Virginia 1.26 30 0.67 43 West Virginia 1.52 20 1.07 31 Fifth District 1.49-1.24 - United States 1.47-1.64 - Source: Mortgage Bankers Association (2016:Q2)/Haver Analytics Table 3 Prime Mortgage Delinquency Rates: Fifth District 90 + National in National Days Past Due Rank Forclosure Rank District of Columbia 0.75 27 1.72 3 Maryland 1.01 11 1.10 15 North Carolina 0.70 29 0.50 34 South Carolina 0.82 23 0.85 22 Virginia 0.62 35 0.33 41 West Virginia 0.91 16 0.60 28 Fifth District 0.77-0.66 - United States 0.83-0.95 - Source: Mortgage Bankers Association (2016:Q2)/Haver Analytics 6
Table 4 Subprime Share of All Loans: Fifth District National Subprime Rank District of Columbia 6.53 29 Maryland 8.01 12 North Carolina 5.91 40 South Carolina 6.96 25 Virginia 5.49 45 West Virginia 5.86 41 Fifth District 6.40 - United States 7.43 - Source: Mortgage Bankers Association (2016:Q2)/Haver Analytics Table 5 Subprime Mortgage Delinquency Rates: Fifth District 90 + National in National Days Past Due Rank Forclosure Rank District of Columbia 5.48 29 16.55 4 Maryland 7.62 6 8.53 14 North Carolina 6.66 17 4.88 28 South Carolina 5.41 30 7.64 16 Virginia 6.57 18 3.39 40 West Virginia 7.58 7 4.99 27 Fifth District 6.71-6.17 - United States 5.82-7.43 - Source: Mortgage Bankers Association (2016:Q2)/Haver Analytics 7
Table 6 General Housing Statistics: North Carolina Housing Units of Owner-Occupied Owner-Occupied Mortgages With: With a Prime Subprime Adjustable Interest Total Vacant Occupied Total Mortgage Loan Loan Rate Only Asheville 213,637 33,720 179,917 125,590 76,295 97.86 2.14 6.15 1.20 Burlington 66,576 6,616 59,960 40,104 27,247 97.19 2.81 5.54 0.64 Charlotte-Gastonia 737,775 66,546 671,229 445,815 356,468 97.68 2.32 9.83 1.80 Durham 222,760 20,284 202,476 121,650 91,562 95.99 4.01 10.48 1.22 Fayetteville 153,735 14,772 138,963 80,053 61,421 97.20 2.80 4.88 0.20 Goldsboro 52,949 5,118 47,831 29,828 19,525 97.82 2.18 7.49 0.15 Greensboro 322,754 32,060 290,694 186,999 134,353 97.50 2.50 7.23 0.77 Greenville 83,203 8,313 74,890 41,985 30,013 97.47 2.53 5.85 0.48 Hickory-Lenoir 162,613 18,109 144,504 103,966 66,104 97.59 2.41 5.49 0.49 Jacksonville 68,226 8,134 60,092 34,332 25,865 98.82 1.18 7.61 0.39 Kill Devil Hills 33,492 19,157 14,335 10,118 7,214 97.68 2.32 9.88 4.20 Raleigh-Cary 466,095 35,518 430,577 287,501 234,196 97.68 2.32 8.76 1.11 Rocky Mount 67,124 7,662 59,462 37,967 24,892 97.12 2.88 5.92 0.41 Wilmington 205,642 52,966 152,676 102,867 72,689 98.18 1.82 7.22 1.69 Winston-Salem 214,375 22,065 192,310 130,315 91,204 97.34 2.66 6.98 0.63 North Carolina 4,327,528 582,373 3,745,155 2,497,900 1,741,905 97.51 2.49 7.83 1.12 Fifth District 13,387,600 1,598,257 11,789,343 7,930,734 5,632,033 97.24 2.76 9.14 2.22 United States 131,704,730 14,988,438 116,716,292 75,986,074 51,208,208* 98.02 1.98 9.35 2.15 Notes: FHA and VA loans as well as interest only loans are included in the count of prime loans. Source: Housing units are reported in the 2010 Census. Mortgage estimates are Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond calculations using data from McDash Analytics (June 2016). Definitions of the metropolitan areas are provided later in the document. *The figure for owner-occupied units with a mortgage at the national level is calculated by summing the totals for the states. 8
Table 7 Owner-Occupied Loan Statistics: North Carolina 90+ Days Past Due in 90+ Days Past Due in Asheville 1.07 0.76 0.43 0.89 0.50 0.37 Burlington 2.05 0.99 0.68 1.63 0.72 0.70 Charlotte-Gastonia 1.84 0.99 0.51 1.51 0.66 0.45 Durham 1.94 0.70 0.38 1.64 0.50 0.40 Fayetteville 3.26 1.33 0.89 2.91 1.10 1.08 Goldsboro 2.54 1.06 0.84 2.28 0.71 1.07 Greensboro 2.15 1.00 0.72 1.72 0.79 0.71 Greenville 1.92 0.94 0.66 1.65 0.85 0.66 Hickory-Lenoir 1.62 1.13 0.86 1.43 0.84 0.83 Jacksonville 3.23 1.78 1.35 2.55 1.72 1.70 Kill Devil Hills 1.33 0.69 0.42 1.06 0.48 0.48 Raleigh-Cary 1.50 0.62 0.32 1.24 0.45 0.28 Rocky Mount 3.33 1.70 1.14 2.94 1.10 1.43 Wilmington 1.49 0.86 0.63 1.19 0.69 0.65 Winston-Salem 1.95 0.90 0.65 1.72 0.67 0.71 North Carolina 1.99 0.95 0.62 1.65 0.71 0.63 Fifth District 1.89 1.19 0.76 1.60 0.87 0.77 United States 1.79 1.58 0.75 1.51 1.17 0.72 10 Figure 11 Owner-Occupied Loan Statistics: North Carolina 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 90+ Days Past Due 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 06/15 08/15 10/15 12/15 02/16 04/16 06/16 Notes: FHA and VA loans as well as interest only loans are included in the count of prime loans. 9 0
Table 8 Owner-Occupied Prime Loan Statistics: North Carolina 90+ Days Past Due in 90+ Days Past Due in Asheville 1.04 0.74 0.43 0.87 0.50 0.36 Burlington 2.00 0.94 0.66 1.62 0.72 0.70 Charlotte-Gastonia 1.81 0.97 0.50 1.50 0.66 0.45 Durham 1.90 0.68 0.38 1.63 0.50 0.41 Fayetteville 3.15 1.30 0.90 2.75 1.10 1.09 Goldsboro 2.43 1.06 0.82 2.22 0.71 1.10 Greensboro 2.10 0.98 0.72 1.68 0.77 0.71 Greenville 1.91 0.93 0.66 1.66 0.80 0.67 Hickory-Lenoir 1.60 1.10 0.85 1.43 0.84 0.84 Jacksonville 3.21 1.75 1.36 2.54 1.72 1.71 Kill Devil Hills 1.31 0.68 0.42 1.02 0.49 0.49 Raleigh-Cary 1.46 0.60 0.33 1.22 0.44 0.28 Rocky Mount 3.27 1.63 1.14 2.89 1.11 1.41 Wilmington 1.47 0.85 0.64 1.18 0.68 0.66 Winston-Salem 1.92 0.87 0.65 1.70 0.67 0.71 North Carolina 1.94 0.93 0.62 1.62 0.70 0.64 Fifth District 1.84 1.17 0.76 1.57 0.87 0.78 United States 1.75 1.56 0.74 1.48 1.16 0.72 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Figure 12 Owner-Occupied Prime Loan Statistics: North Carolina 90+ Days Past Due 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 10 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 06/15 08/15 10/15 12/15 02/16 04/16 06/16 Notes: FHA and VA loans as well as interest only loans are included in the count of prime loans. 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
Table 9 Owner-Occupied Subprime Loan Statistics: North Carolina 90+ Days Past Due in 90+ Days Past Due in Asheville 2.94 1.90 0.69 2.01 0.54 0.54 Burlington 3.96 3.05 1.22 1.87 0.80 0.53 Charlotte-Gastonia 3.33 2.12 0.70 2.20 0.69 0.36 Durham 3.28 1.31 0.51 1.84 0.56 0.28 Fayetteville 7.43 2.35 0.59 8.59 1.01 0.51 Goldsboro 7.50 1.25 1.88 4.67 0.67 0.00 Greensboro 4.49 1.87 0.76 3.42 1.40 0.67 Greenville 2.16 1.08 0.72 1.34 2.68 0.34 Hickory-Lenoir 2.72 2.36 1.27 1.77 1.06 0.18 Jacksonville 5.05 4.59 0.46 3.43 1.47 0.98 Kill Devil Hills 2.60 1.30 0.00 2.80 0.00 0.00 Raleigh-Cary 3.75 1.88 0.29 2.10 0.67 0.32 Rocky Mount 5.37 4.13 1.24 4.78 0.87 2.17 Wilmington 3.02 1.78 0.18 2.11 1.13 0.28 Winston-Salem 3.15 2.06 0.98 2.20 0.83 0.83 North Carolina 4.15 2.01 0.68 2.75 0.91 0.51 Fifth District 4.35 2.18 0.97 2.90 1.04 0.62 United States 3.98 3.04 1.22 2.88 1.73 0.76 Figure 13 Owner-Occupied Subprime Loan Statistics: North Carolina 30 30 25 90+ Days Past Due 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.9 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.8 2.8 5 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 0 06/15 08/15 10/15 12/15 02/16 04/16 06/16 Notes: FHA and VA loans as well as interest only loans are included in the count of prime loans. 11 0
Table 10 Owner-Occupied Interest Only Loan Statistics: North Carolina 90+ Days Past Due in 90+ Days Past Due in Asheville 1.70 2.34 0.21 1.67 1.19 0.24 Burlington 3.09 2.06 0.00 1.16 1.16 0.00 Charlotte-Gastonia 1.87 1.53 0.77 1.88 0.76 0.76 Durham 2.83 0.79 0.63 1.83 0.55 1.10 Fayetteville 2.47 1.23 1.23 1.45 0.00 5.80 Goldsboro 5.88 11.76 5.88 0.00 20.00 0.00 Greensboro 2.46 1.05 2.28 2.39 1.79 0.60 Greenville 4.69 1.56 4.69 1.79 5.36 1.79 Hickory-Lenoir 1.50 1.50 1.50 0.88 1.75 0.88 Jacksonville 5.41 2.70 0.00 0.00 1.47 0.00 Kill Devil Hills 3.67 2.29 0.46 3.61 1.55 1.55 Raleigh-Cary 2.73 1.36 0.40 1.99 1.06 0.33 Rocky Mount 7.89 2.63 2.63 3.03 0.00 3.03 Wilmington 1.47 1.07 1.20 0.91 1.52 0.45 Winston-Salem 2.43 2.78 0.69 3.47 1.16 0.77 North Carolina 2.26 1.58 0.99 1.97 1.07 0.78 Fifth District 2.96 2.62 1.75 2.74 1.90 1.44 United States 2.95 3.81 1.44 2.52 2.71 1.13 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Figure 14 Owner-Occupied Interest Only Loan Statistics: North Carolina 90+ Days Past Due 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.2 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.5 12 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 06/15 08/15 10/15 12/15 02/16 04/16 06/16 Notes: FHA and VA loans as well as interest only loans are included in the count of prime loans. 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
Table 11 Unemployment Rates: North Carolina age Point Unemployment Rate Change from June 2015 Asheville 4.1-0.9 Burlington 5.0-0.8 Charlotte-Gastonia 5.0-0.8 Durham 4.7-0.8 Fayetteville 6.4-1.5 Goldsboro 5.3-1.1 Greensboro 5.9-0.9 Greenville 5.6-0.8 Hickory-Lenoir 5.0-1.1 Jacksonville 5.5-0.9 Kill Devil Hills 4.8-0.7 Raleigh-Cary 4.4-0.7 Rocky Mount 7.5-1.3 Wilmington 4.9-0.8 Winston-Salem 5.0-0.9 North Carolina 5.1-1.0 Fifth District 4.8-0.9 Note: Data are not seasonally adjusted. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics (June 2016); Office of Management and Budget, 2013 (MSA definitions) Table 12 Owner-Occupied Loan Statistics Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC MSA 90+ in 90+ in Days Past Due Days Past Due 13 Anson County 3.99 1.53 1.07 3.54 0.96 1.29 Cabarrus County 1.77 0.90 0.61 1.52 0.62 0.44 Gaston County 2.42 1.03 0.76 2.03 0.77 0.69 Mecklenburg County 1.87 0.93 0.45 1.50 0.63 0.39 Union County 1.48 0.80 0.37 1.25 0.53 0.35 Table 13 Owner-Occupied Loan Statistics Raleigh-Cary, NC MSA 90+ in 90+ in Days Past Due Days Past Due Franklin County 2.05 1.06 0.71 2.05 0.74 0.59 Johnston County 2.53 1.17 0.65 1.75 0.86 0.66 Wake County 1.37 0.54 0.27 1.16 0.39 0.23
Table 14 Owner-Occupied Prime Loan Statistics Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC MSA 90+ in 90+ in Days Past Due Days Past Due Anson County 3.73 1.30 1.14 3.42 0.85 1.20 Cabarrus County 1.72 0.88 0.61 1.50 0.63 0.44 Gaston County 2.41 1.01 0.76 2.03 0.76 0.69 Mecklenburg County 1.84 0.92 0.45 1.49 0.63 0.40 Union County 1.47 0.78 0.37 1.24 0.53 0.35 Table 15 Owner-Occupied Prime Loan Statistics Raleigh-Cary, NC MSA 90+ in 90+ in Days Past Due Days Past Due Franklin County 2.00 1.05 0.73 1.92 0.72 0.61 Johnston County 2.49 1.16 0.65 1.73 0.84 0.64 Wake County 1.33 0.51 0.27 1.14 0.39 0.23 Table 16 Owner-Occupied Subprime Loan Statistics Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC MSA 90+ in 90+ in Days Past Due Days Past Due Anson County 8.33 5.56 0.00 5.41 2.70 2.70 Cabarrus County 4.51 1.81 0.68 2.35 0.54 0.18 Gaston County 2.87 1.84 0.61 1.98 1.08 0.72 Mecklenburg County 3.69 1.87 0.66 2.22 0.62 0.23 Union County 1.69 2.12 0.42 1.81 0.45 0.30 14
Table 17 Owner-Occupied Subprime Loan Statistics Raleigh-Cary, NC MSA 90+ in 90+ in Days Past Due Days Past Due Franklin County 3.68 1.47 0.00 6.08 1.35 0.00 Johnston County 4.70 2.14 0.43 2.73 1.95 1.17 Wake County 3.65 1.87 0.29 1.83 0.51 0.26 Table 18 Owner-Occupied Interest Only Loan Statistics Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC MSA 90+ in 90+ in Days Past Due Days Past Due Anson County 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cabarrus County 2.58 1.48 0.74 3.42 0.85 0.43 Gaston County 1.90 1.90 1.27 1.48 0.00 0.74 Mecklenburg County 1.64 1.34 0.65 1.55 0.53 0.61 Union County 2.87 2.20 0.84 2.94 1.57 1.18 Table 19 Owner-Occupied Interest Only Loan Statistics Raleigh-Cary, NC MSA 90+ in 90+ in Days Past Due Days Past Due Franklin County 0.00 2.86 0.00 0.00 3.23 0.00 Johnston County 3.90 2.60 1.30 3.08 1.54 1.54 Wake County 2.73 1.28 0.36 1.98 0.99 0.28 15
MSA Definitions 1. Asheville, NC MSA Buncombe County, NC; Haywood County, NC; Henderson County, NC; Madison County, NC 2. Burlington, NC MSA Alamance County, NC 3. Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC MSA Anson County, NC; Cabarrus County, NC; Gaston County, NC; Mecklenburg County, NC; Union County, NC; York County, SC 4. Durham-Chapel Hill, NC MSA Chatham County, NC; Durham County, NC; Orange County, NC; Person County, NC 5. Fayetteville, NC MSA Cumberland County, NC; Hoke County, NC 6. Goldsboro, NC MSA Wayne County, NC 7. Greensboro-High Point, NC MSA Guilford County, NC; Randolph County, NC; Rockingham County, NC 8. Greenville, NC MSA Greene County, NC; Pitt County, NC 9. Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC MSA Alexander County, NC; Burke County, NC; Caldwell County, NC; Catawba County, NC 10. Jacksonville, NC MSA Onslow County, NC 11. Kill Devil Hills*, NC MSA Dare County, NC 12. Raleigh-Cary, NC MSA Franklin County, NC; Johnston County, NC; Wake County, NC 13. Rocky Mount, NC MSA Edgecombe County, NC; Nash County, NC 14. Wilmington, NC MSA Brunswick County, NC; New Hanover County, NC; Pender County, NC 15. Winston-Salem, NC MSA Davie County, NC; Forsyth County, NC; Stokes County, NC; Yadkin County, NC *Indicates a micropolitan statistical area Source: Office of Management and Budget, 2008 North Carolina Counties 16
Sources and Notes House Price Index Federal Housing Finance Agency/Haver Analytics Weighted repeat sales index, measuring the average price changes in repeat sales or refinancing on the same single family properties. Based on transactions involving conforming, conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Unemployment Rate Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics General Housing Statistics Census Bureau Metropolitan Statistical Area Definitions Office of Management and Budget McDash Analytics Mortgage Data and General Housing Statistics (2008 Definitions) House Price Index and Unemployment Rate (2013 Definitions) Loan Distribution and Loan Performance (1) Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver Analytics (2) McDash Analytics Mortgage Data McDash Analytics recently made a large enhancement to their mortgage performance data with the addition of several, primarily non-bank, mortgage servicers covering an additional 3.5 million loans. Performance numbers for the added servicers date back to January 2010. Historical rates may have changed in this version of the Mortgage Performance Summaries from previous versions. 17