Beirut recorded the 2 nd lowest occupancy rate among Arab markets. The average room rate in Beirut hotels dropped to USD 167 in January 2014, compared to USD 173 in January 2013. Occupancy rate at Beirut hotels reaches 36% in January 2014 The January 2014 Middle East Hotels Benchmark Survey by Ernst & Young indicated that the average occupancy rate at Beirut four-star and five-star hotels was 36% during January, falling down by 14 percentage points from 50% in January 2013. Beirut achieved the second lowest rate after Cairo among Arab markets. The survey stated that the average rate per room at Beirut hotels was USD 167 in January 2014 ranking the capital s hotels as the 11th most expensive in the region. It added that the average rate per room in Beirut decreased by 3.5% year-on-year relative to a 2% rise for hotels in the Middle East. Further, Ernst & Young indicated that revenues per available room (RevPAR) reached USD 60 in January 2014 going down from USD 87 in the same month last year. Beirut hotels achieved the 13th highest RevPAR in the region in January. Ernst & Young attributed this downward trend to the political instability which continues to negatively impact Lebanon s hospitality market. Regionally, the survey showed that the highest levels of occupancy were achieved in Dubai, Makkah, and Muscat with levels of 87%, 86% and 85% respectively in January 2014. The weakest performer was Cairo, with occupancy level of 25%. In terms of RevPAR in January 2014, the strongest performer was Dubai with an earning rate of USD 294. Source: Ernst & Young, BankMed Research City Source: Ernst & Young, BankMed Research January 2014 Middle East Hotel Survey: Performance Indicators in Selected Cities Annual Occupancy rate (%) Average Room rate (USD) RevPAR (USD) Dubai 87 337 294 Muscat 85 203 174 Abu Dhabi 78 218 171 Doha 70 243 171 Riyadh 59 223 134 Amman 54 155 84 Kuwait 52 361 190 Manama 43 224 97 Beirut 36 167 60 Cairo 25 83 21 BankMed - Market & Economic Research Division 1
The number of tourists coming into Lebanon reached 229,252 in the first three months of 2014. The number of Arab tourists registered the steepest decline by 19% yearon-year to reach 79,670 in January-March 2014. Tourists numbers drop by a yearly 16% in the first quarter of 2014 The number of tourists coming into Lebanon reached 229,252 in the first three months of 2014, indicating declines of 16.5% and 27% from the same periods of 2013 and 2012, respectively. This continued deterioration shows how Lebanon, especially given its serviceoriented economy- remains highly sensitive to the changes and uncertainties that are overwhelming the region. The month of March alone witnessed a yearly 21% drop in the number of tourists to reach 83,361 compared to 106,192 recorded in March 2013. In terms of country of origin, the number of Arab tourists registered the steepest decline by 19% year-on-year to reach 79,670 in January-March 2014. The number of European tourists recorded a drop by 17% to reach 74,887. The number of tourists from Asian countries declined by an annual 16% to reach 24,054 visitors. The number of African tourists went down by 15% to reach 11,274 and so did the number of American tourists recording a drop by 8% to 33,007 visitors. 12000! 10000! Total Arrivals by Nationality for the Period of March 2014! Arab Countries! 11,127! 8000! 6000! 5,203! 4,761! 4000! 2,818! 2,431! 2000! 1,412! 0! Iraq! Egypt! Jordan! All other Arab Countries! 416! Saudi Arabia! Kuwait! UAE! Source: Ministry of Tourism, BankMed Research BankMed - Market & Economic Research Division 2
The Coincident Indicator registered 272.5 points in February 2014 compared to 270.6 points in February 2013. Coincident indicator improves by 1% y-o-y in February 2014 The coincident indicator, the composite indicator of economic activity in Lebanon as monitored by the Central Bank, reached 272.5 points in February 2014, rising up by 0.7% from 270.6 points recorded in the same month last year but dropping down by 3% from 280.3 points in January 2014. Overall, the twelve-month period from February 2013 to February 2014 witnessed six monthly declines in April 2013, June 2013, July 2013, August 2013, December 2013, and February 2014. The coincident indicator is an average of eight weighted economic indicators including electricity production, cement deliveries, cleared checks, money supply M3, passenger flows, imports of petroleum derivatives, total imports, and exports. 290! 280! 270! 260! 250! 240! 230! 220! 210! BDL Coincident Indicator! Feb-10! Apr-10! Jun-10! Aug-10! Oct-10! Dec-10! Feb-11! Apr-11! Jun-11! Aug-11! Oct-11! Dec-11! Feb-12! Apr-12! Jun-12! Aug-12! Oct-12! Dec-12! Feb-13! Apr-13! Jun-13! Aug-13! Oct-13! Dec-13! Feb-14! BankMed - Market & Economic Research Division 3
BANKING & FINANCE The total balance sheet of Financial institutions reached USD 1,676 million at end-february 2014. Claims on the private sector increased by a yearly 15%, while claims on the public sector jumped by 124% in February 2014. Financial institutions show a 28% annual increase in activity up to February 2014 The consolidated balance sheet of financial institutions in Lebanon reached USD 1,676 million at end-february 2014, going up from USD 1,309 million at end-february 2013, indicating an increase of 28%. Liabilities to the private sector went up by 9.3% y-o-y to USD 274 million in February 2014, while liabilities to the financial sector increased by 52% reaching USD 893 million. With respect to assets, cash and banks reached USD 575 million at end-february 2014, rising up by 15% from USD 500 million in the same period of the previous year. Claims on the private sector amounted to USD 745 million at end-february 2014, going up 15% from a year earlier, while claims on the public sector stood at USD 356 million, going up by 124% from USD 159 million in February 2013. (USD Million)! 989! Balance Sheet of Financial Institutions! 1,093! 1,145! 1,309! 1,676! Feb-10! Feb-11! Feb-12! Feb-13! Feb-14! Source: Company Data, BankMed Research BankMed - Market & Economic Research Division 4
BANKING & FINANCE BDL s gold reserves dropped by 8% yearly, while foreign assets increased by 3% at mid- April 2014. Central Bank s assets reach USD 80.6 billion at mid-april 2014 with USD 12 billion in gold reserves Banque du Liban (BDL) s bi-monthly balance sheet as of mid-march 2014 reported total assets of USD 80.6 billion, indicating an increase of 5% from mid-april 2013 (USD 76.6 billion) and going up by USD 342 million from end-march 2014 when they amounted USD 80.3 billion. Gold stood at USD 12 billion as of mid-april 2014 rising up by USD 81 million from end- March 2014 but went down by 8% from USD 13 billion in mid-april 2013. Foreign assets rose by 3% yearly and by 0.2% on a bi-weekly basis to reach USD 36.3 billion at mid-april 2014. Loans to the local financial sector increased by 93% yearly and by USD 94 million from end- March 2014 to reach USD 3.1 billion in the same period. With respect to liabilities, BDL reported a yearly 5% increase in financial sector deposits to reach USD 60 billion at mid-april 2014, accounting for around 74% of total liabilities along with a 46% y-o-y rise and a bi-weekly 0.4% increase in public sector deposits amounting to USD 7.7 billion at mid-april 2014. BDL Gold Reserves! 15.3! 13.6! 13.0! 12.0! (USD Billion)! 8.6! 8.3! 10.6! 2008! 2009! 2010! 2011! 2012! 2013! 2014! Mazen Soueid, Stephanie Ghanem, Ziad Hariri, Nadine Yamout, and Rita Nehme Disclaimer This material has been prepared by BankMed, sal based on publicly available information and personal analysis. It is provided for information purposes only. It is not intended to be used as a research tool nor as a basis or reference for any decision. The information contained herein including any opinion, news and analysis, is based on various publicly available sources believed to be reliable but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed and may be subject to change without notice. BankMed, sal does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness, continued availability or completeness of such information. All data contained herein are indicative. Neither the information provided nor any opinion expressed therein, constitutes a solicitation, offer, personal recommendation or advice. BankMed, sal does not assume any liability for direct, indirect, incidental or consequential damages resulting from any use of the information contained herein.